16.25 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap - Maven: Comes down to workable mark, won of 84 in the past and this year of 83 at Pontefract. Has form on soft ground but never won on anything worse than good, so drying ground a plus. However Doncaster form abysmal.
Yojojo: Very strong 2nd last week at Brighton when only narrowly denied. Can race off same mark and that gives her an obvious chance. Up in grade and in class here though, so this is a bit tougher. Has only won once over 10f but does get trip fine and finished close 2nd off 88 earlier this year.
Flippant: Not too many miles under the belt and nicely progressing. Was a decent 2yo and improved further this year. A winner of two races, only one let down when she didn't perform around Epsom. But made amends at Newbury last time out. More improvement to come of revised mark and unexposed over this sort of trip.
Hot Coffee: Lightly raced maiden winner over 6f. Tries 10f for the first time andd would need to step up her game given the fact that she was fair and square beaten last time out over 9f off a similar mark. On pedigree the trip doesn't look likely to be what she wants though.
Blue Waltz: Won maiden at the third time of asking lto, despite looking green and wandering around in the closing stages. Open to more improvement and opening mark looks fair. Not quite a flashy pedigree though and it remains to be seen how much better she can be eventually.
Principle Equation: Good runner-up last month at Ripon, on first attempt over 10f. Winner was too good but came well clear of rest of the field. Won maiden over 1m at Windsor before and could still improve. Has to do so however, in order to be in with a chance in this better class.
Limousine: Lightly raced, won 12f maiden at Kempton a fortnight ago, responding well to pressure within final furlong. Had her own way up on front throughout. Beaten on the line in 10f maiden before. Drop in trip seems strange as she is all stamina, with influence on sire side but even more so on the dam side. Opening mark is fair but she might lack the speed.
Verdict: Yojojo has an obvious chance off her current mark, on the other hands this race is on paper a tougher one than the one she finished agonizingly close last time out and she might do struggle to give weight away to the three year olds. I'm mainly thinking of Flippant, who looks a lovely progressive filly, getting better with any start, without ever doing more than required. Still unexposed over the trip, she boosts a nice pedigree and should have the most potential to be better than her current mark. She looks clearly an attractive price to my eyes. --- Flippant @ 4/1 Coral - 2pts win
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18.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap –
Imaginary World: Won nicely over CD last month, when pulling easily
clear despite meeting in-running throuble. Didn't perform
subsequently over 1m back on turf. Judged on this most recent AW
chance, she should go well here. However top weight in better class
is though. Career best required. Talented apprentice's claim helps.
Al Manaal: Made all from the front at
Goodwood last time out and was long in front, just got tired from
half a furlong out. Good performance nonetheless and a repeat of that
will see her going close here since she is certainly down to a very
fair mark. A return to the AW is interesting too. There isn't too
much pace in this race either, which means she should be able to get
a rather easy time up on front and that will benefit her.
Aragosta: Very impressive winner at
Kempton last time out. Excellent change of gear, when never too far
off the pace. Won easily. Wasn't a strong maiden, but still the
opening mark off 72 looks rather lenient. Quite decent pedigree as
well. Full sister to excellent AW gelding Primaeval.
Swiss Kiss: Not so good on turf on
latest start, however eye-catching success on Lingfield's polytrack
over 1m. Impressive turn of foot over 2f out. Five pounds higher here
but chance on the weights with WFA allowance and back on the AW is a
big plus. Drop in trip should be too much of a problem.
Valen: Didn't show too many positive
signs since maiden win in August last year. Bit better recently and
slipping mark should help. But switch to All-Weather must bring out a
good deal of improvement to have a chance here.
Madam Mirasol: Impressive winner in
August, followed up with fine runner-up effort when cominf from
impossible position. Further up in the mark and new career best
required, taking quite some step up in class too.
Lilly Junior: Maiden winner at the
sixth time of asking at Ripon last month over 1m. Decent Handicap
performance at Yarouth in July as well. Seems useful enough but drop
in trip seems strange and opening mark is stiff enough for what this
filly has shown so far.
Bint Dandy: Dundalk maiden winner for
Paul Deegan. First start for new yard in the Uk now. Mark is down but
hard to know what to expect.
Verdict: Couple of horses with chances
to well. Favourite Aragosta is rightly heading the market. Nice
pedigree, excellent recent win and a fair opening mark. However she
didn't beat much that day and has to face some tough opposition here.
Imaginary World was strong on her penultimate outing and judged on
has a fair chance, but a career best is required. Plenty of appeal
makes Lingfield winner Swiss Kiss. Back on the AW will suit and with
the weight for age allowance she should go really well. I like her at
around 8/1 quite allot. Al Manaal is another really interesting
contender. Most recent performance of a reduced mark was really good.
She has a fair chance to follow up on that with a success, given that
she won earlier this year of higher. 10/1 seems generous.
Swiss Kiss @ 8/1 Bet365 – 2pts win
Al Manaal @ 10/1 Ladbrokes – 2pts win
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