Race of the day - Monday 29th September

15.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Al Senad: Won 5f maiden at Beverly in tremendous style. Disappointing that he couldn't follow up in two subsequent starts. Drops 5lb in mark, and that might make him competitive again. Track could suit.

Red Lady: Two from two over course and distance. Much improved since having hood this season, progressive and might not be the end for her. With apprentice allowance gone this time, she is effectively 6lb higher for her recent narrow win. 

The Dandy Yank: Competitive and progressive earlier this summer. Won Kempton claimer recently, but subsequently disappointing in Wolverhampton handicap. High enough mark.

Royal Birth: Runaway maiden winner at Wolverhampton. Couldn't follow up subsequently in two strong handicaps (strong form). Slipping mark can help to become competitive again and this looks easier on paper. Still lightly raced and back after break.

Threetimesalady: Drops in trip which needs to bring out improvement as otherwise looks on high enough mark. Hasn't shown any sparkle this season.

Shilla: Has course form and went close over 6f earlier this summer. Minimum trip seems too short and doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Was a good deal beaten in a similar race a fortnight ago.

Gulland Rock: Ran well over minimum trip earlier this year when he won at Catterick and followed with three runner-up efforts subsequently. Not completely out of this but need to show improvement. 

Verdict: Close contest on paper and hard to fancy anyone with confidence. Red Lady loves it here but has a new career highest mark to defy and won only by the tightest of margins while having the run of the race. She might get company up on front this time. Al Senad would be interesting if he could find back to his strong Beverly run, but on balance he looks still high enough in the mark. Most interesting is Royal Birth for a pretty big looking price. He looked extremely good when blitzing his rivals in a Wolverhampton maiden this winter, couldn't quite follow up in the summer in hot handicaps, but is subsequently down in the mark and this here is a tick easier. He remains of interest and could be better than the current rating. 

Royal Birth @ 7/1 Bet365 – 3pts win