15.15 Ayr: Doonside Cup (Listed), 10f - Abseil: Progressive early in the season, culminating in strong Epsom success over 1m 1/2f. Three rather disappoint performances subsequently, looked outpaced and not up for it. Need to improve to be competitive here over new trip. 10f looks possible on pedigree.
Gabrial: Quick ground will suit, decent recent run over 12f at Chester. Improved nicely from 4f out and looked in with big chance but outstayed in final furlong. Has never been placed over anything further than 9f but ran in hot raced against excellent rivals, and been largely competitive.
Mirsaale: Won 10f Handicap as 3yo, not improved over winter and poor this season. Tried over further, drop in trip might help to find back to something like form.
Sennockian Star: Good, consistent handicapper over the years. 10F and ground suit, won at Ayr before. Drops in trip after two runs over further. Need to be back to best, to have chance to land first Listed race.
Sky Hunter: Progressive 3yo in France, 3rd behind Intello in French Derby, won Listed race over 12f subsequently. Didn't show anything in two starts this year. Needs to be improved after break. However remains of interest as he's potentially the most talented sort in this field.
Treasure The Ridge: Hugely progressive lately. Won couple of races on the bounce, big class 2 handicap recently, coming from impossible position. Surely possible to progress further but loads to find on ratings and this much tough assignment on the weights.
Mutatis Mutandis: Only won maiden as a 2yo, decent performance in Newbury Listed race but looked out off depth lto. Needs to prove that she is good enough.
Verdict: If Sky Hunter could find back to his best 3yo form, he'll be obviously hard to beat in this field. But there are plenty of question marks and his current price is fair at best, so makes sense to take him on. Only one horse really makes appeal to do so in my mind: Gabrial: Clear return to form recently at Chester, just faded in final furlong over trip stretching his stamina. Drop in trip clearly to suit, and while he hasn't a good record over 10f, I've no doubt he gets the trip and if you look through his forms, he has come against some excellent horses, but won nicely a Handicap at Meydan and is consistent on Listed/premium handicap level. He finds conditions to suit and should give the favourite plenty to think about. He's the value in the race in my mind.
Gabrial @ 5/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win
No comments :
Post a Comment