Betting - Monday 1st December 2014

15.30 Wolverhampton: Handicap (Class 3, 2m 119y)

Cousin Khee: Narrowly denied over 2m at Shouthwell lto, multiple NHF 2m winner on polytrack. Good deal above last winning mark due to good placed efforts.

Buckland: Prolific AW performer, much improved last year and ran well in defeat on couple of occasions this season. Once runner-up over 2m off 96. Runner-up at Kempton lto, though fair and square beaten – this is easier and should go well.

Dame Lucy: Improved middle-distance runner this year, though disappointing when last seen. First start on AW may work but trip is big question mark.

Entihaa: Consistent stayer who find winning difficult. Landed Handicap at York in September, not so good last two. Needs to find improvement for AW debut and looks not particularly well handicapped.

Hidden Justice: Fair multi-purpose performer, will surly get the trip and goes well on AW. Two big performances in October after coming back from break. Should go well.

Mister Bob: Improving low-grade stayer. Has loads to find on ratings. Low weight can help.

Uncle Bernie: Rapidly improving this year over staying trips. Won three of last four and 3/3 over CD. Very impressive lto and despite having a bit to find on ratings, he can go really close if he improves again. Turned out quickly under a penalty, he's given a good chance. 

Verdict: The two improvers at the bottom of the weights are heading the market and surly have a sexy profile. Uncle Bernie in particular seems to love it around Wolverhampton and is bound for a big performance turned out quickly under a penalty. I'm not so sure about Mister Bob who may have the improvement in him it takes in this hot contest, but he is way to short in my mind. Hidden Justice is very interesting runner on AW debut. Doing well lately, he'll get the trip and is on a fair mark. But on the other hand his sire's offspring didn't seem to perform particularly well on Tapeta in the past, and he looks nothing more than a fair price to me. Cousin Khee is a very good horse on his day, though he seems high enough in the mark at the moment. However Buckland looks a rather big price given how well he did in some really hot staying races this year. He hasn't won over 2m yet but has been placed and gone close in the majority of his starts over this trip and finished a close runner-up of a mark off 96 in an extremely competitive handicap last season. He may not be that good after all this year, but his 2nd in a strong race over 2m at Kempton a fortnight ago is the best form on offer in this field. Todays race looks easier on paper, and that must gibe Buckland a fine shot to go close. Obviously the trip may stretch him but there seems not to be too much pace on here, so that should help. 

Buckland @ 5/1 VC - 5pts win

Betting: Saturday 29th November 2014

19.45 Wolverhampton: Handicap (12f, Class 3)

Esteaming: Tailed off in November Handicap, fair form over the summer without winning, career highest required on first AW career start. Good chance to take to surface on pedigree.

The Lock Master: CD winner but disappointing last four starts since winning at Southwell.

Uramazin: Poor form on return after break earlier this month and poor in handful of starts since good 2nd in hot Kempton Handicap. Never won over 12f and AW. Age may catch up.

Aladdins Cave: Veteran on good mark judged on old form, fine AW record over 12f. Below par in last two runs on Dundalk All-Weather.

Personal Opinion: Two from two on the AW, still lightly raced. Poor on turf this summer. Needs to prove he is up to current mark, but return to All-Weather sure to suit.

Art Scholar: Okay form in last number of starts without coming close to win. Up in trip should suit but looks not particularly well handicapped at the moment.

Vivat Rex: Won good maiden for Aiden O’Brien at Galway this year. Found out in subsequent Listed race and long way beaten for new yard in Listed race earlier this month. Looks lazy type but lightly raced and opening mark fair.

Cerutty: Lightly raced CD maiden winner earlier this month, very taking performance and third in Kempton maiden behind Kalaatah (subsequent fourth in Listed race) looks very good form. Mark could be lenient. 

Verdict: Not too many seem to have a realistic chance to go close. Godolphin's Personal Opinion proves popular in the betting given that the yard is in form and that he loves it here at Wolverhampton. He sure should improve from his last poor showings on turf, but neither his current handicap mark nor his price look generous. Cerutty is a very interesting runner. I fancy him to run a big race after broke his maiden tag over CD recently, with the runner-up a subsequent winner. Cerutty's performance on his subsequent start when third behind exciting Kalaatah rates a big one too and it is possible that an opening mark of 82 is lenient. For all, this is much tougher today nonetheless and he looks only a fair price to me. Vivat Rex may improve from his UK debut now going handicapping, but I like to see something from him before it is possible to judge properly. Top weight Esteaming looks overpriced though. A career highest is expected, but his form this year was pretty consistent and good in tough Handicaps bar when a long way beaten in the November handicap recently. A switch to the All-Weather is interesting and on pedigree should very much suit. If it can bring out a bit improvement, he'll go very close. Worry is obviously the weight he has to give away.

Esteaming @ 5/1 Coral - 5pts win

Betting: Friday 28th November 2014

18.10 Dundalk: Handicap (5f, 3YO plus)

Sylvan Mist: CD winner in January of 2lb lower, good fifth in big Curragh Handicap in September, found out for class in listed race last month here. This more realistic and entitled to go close. 

Strategic Heights: Goes well at this track, last win off 4lb lower but placed off higher. Fair 4th in close finish, having loads to do from the back of the field. Drop to 5f should suit and competitive here.

Canon Law: Irish debut, didn’t set world alight in UK. Drop to 5f not sure to suit.

National Service: Won poor 5f maiden at Kempton last, followed with close defeat of mark off 70 on Nursery debut. Rather lost his way since and badly outpaced over 5f last month at Lingfield.

Danz Gift: Lightly raced, finished eye-catchingly three weeks ago on handicap debut when slowly into stride and loads to do turning for home. More to come and chance of same, but needs to improve in this field.

Majestic Timeline: Goes well this track. Won off 3lb lower last winter. Disappointing last three starts but may come on for recent outing after break. On realistic mark.

Speed Dream: Veteran who has never won on AW but fair 4th here over CD lto. Chance to go well from bottom weight. 

Verdict: Top weight Sylvan Mist found life tough in a CD Listed race but her performances before should ensure that she has a big shot in this race, given that she is down to a handy mark and goes usually very well at this track. She was a good deal beaten by current favourite Strategic Heights back in February, but a 11lb swing in the weights should help to turn the table. The latter one rates a big danger nonetheless. Strategic Heights finished a close 4th recently and the drop in trip is sure to suit today. He had loads to do the last time and if he is in striking distance turning for home this time, he'll be a major contender. Lightly raced Danz Gift has obvious claims after a promising handicap debut. She has to start better though and needs to improve a bit against some tougher rivals. But she looks progressive and should run well. Majestic Timeline is not to underestimate. She will come on for her recent run after a break and she is down on a fair mark. Speed Dream should run his race but needs to have things fall absolutely right for him to win in this field. Canon Law and National Service have loads to do on form and ratings. That says the 4/1 for Sylvan Mist appear too big in the field.

Sylvan Mist @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts win

Betting: Thursday 26th November 2014

18.25 Kempton: Nursery (Class 2) 

Muradif: Top rated, progressive and good form since winning a Nursery off 9lb lower over CD. Followed up with strong 2nd, and fair performances last two. Should appreciate drop in trip & cheek-pieces may help to focus better. But bit more required to overcome current mark.

Vegas Rebel: Very progressive in recent week. Won at Brighton, beaten by narrow margins last two, including seven days ago over CD. Quickly turned out again and can race off same mark. Obvious chance.

Colour Party: Easy maiden winner over 7f at Wolverhampton fortnight ago following up on fine runner-up in hot Newmarket maiden. Lightly raced, Handicap debut. Fair mark and more to come.

Them And Us: Lightly raced winner on racecourse debut, not entirely disgraced in hot Doncaster Nursery. Chance if takes to All-Weather.

Zaza Zest: Improved for step up in trip and slower Southwell surface when landing poor maiden a fortnight ago. Much more required here and not exactly an exciting AW pedigree.

Cascading Stars: Runner-up last three starts over 7-8f. Seems in grip of handicapper and good deal of improvement required against much tougher opposition.

Almoqatel: Debut for new yard, won CD claimer in September. Very hard to fancy on Handicap form. 

Verdict: This is a really interesting Nursery which can go either way. The only won to oppose easily are the two lowest rated individuals. They should find this here way too tough. Favourite Colour Party looks a nicely progressive sort. She was a fine 2nd in a hot Newmarket maiden and broke the tag with an impressive perfomance at Wolverhampton. The merit of that particular form is questionable, but her opening mark is fair and she is open to any kind of improvement. Her current price looks fair but nothing else though. Muradif is sure to appreciate the drop in trip. He ran with credit the last two but found the trip to far. He is a CD winner but on balance he doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Vegas Rebel's close second in a hot class 3 Nursery at Newbury is probably the stand out piece of form in this field. He was agonisingly defeated by a tight margin subsequently at Kempton again, but going off the same mark here tonight, he must rate a very good chance to be right there when it matters. He looks overpriced at 11/2. Them And Us could be an interesting runner if he takes to the All-Weather. A winner on debut and not disgraced in a hot race subsequently, he may be open to more improvement and he is getting backed off the boards at the moment. Zaza Zest is another one who may have still more to offer, even though the merit of her recent Southwell win is questionable and the switch back to polytrack not sure to suit. 

Vegas Rebel @ 11/2 VC - 5pts win

Betting: Wednesday 26th November 2014

Result from the 2.35 Lingfield: Lyn Valley 2nd, Dominandros 3rd. Favourite won it from the front. 

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19.30 Dundalk: Conditions Stakes (3yo+) 

Akasaka: Multiple course and distance winner. Beaten in 7f claimer under very favourable conditions. First start for new yard now.

Dolce N Karama: Once 4th behind Kingston Hill in Racing Post Throphy. Not fulfilling promise subsequently, still a maiden but gutsy runner-up in 10f Leopardstown Handicap last month. Drop in trip not sure to suit.

Camakasi: Broke maiden tag with impressive success over CD earlier this month. Strengths of that form a question mark though. Looks improving and more to come.

Doc Holliday: CD winner and excellent form in recent weeks, winner of big Curragh handicap, followed up with another strong performance in hot race. Bit to do on weights probably and trip slight concern.

Artistic Integrity: Good winner of 7f Handicap at Gowran Park this summer, followed up with third at Leopardstown. Disappointed when last seen. Hast to prove stamina. 

Verdict: Wide open race and you can pick holes into the credentials of each and every individual. Probably the one that is easiest to rule out is Artistic Integrity who does look up against it and unlikely to stay the trip. Recent maiden winner Camakasi heads the market currently and looks a solid chance, given the visual impressive performance lto. It is a concern that it took him eleven races to win, though, and the form of the maiden looks pretty poor, so it is debatable what is really worth and today will be a much better indicator. Aksaka's track record is excellent but on form he is opposable and it is a major worry that he wasn't able to win a claimer over CD which he was entitled to win on ratings and weights lto. The change of yard might help though. Dolce N Karama once promising 2yo career hasn't concluded in a progressive classic season and while he has done better lately in handicaps, the drop in trip is a real worry as he looks more of a stayer than a miler. However if he gets an easy lead up on front, it is not impossible that he can outstay his rivals. Doc Holliday may has to give weight away to the three year olds and doesn't appear to be well weighted, but on form he is the best horse in the race. He was an impressive winner of a low grade handicap at the Curragh over 7f this summer, clearly having loads in hand. And he followed up with a strong performance in a hot Curragh Handicap over 1m where he didn't have things going quite his way. This rates a very strong piece of form in my mind and the only slight concern is that the trip here today could stretch his stamina. He has won over 1m before, but I suspect his optimum is 7f. Nonetheless, he rates a big chance in this field and looks overpriced against the other runners. 

Doc Holliday @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts win

Betting: Wednesday, 26th November 2014

14.35 Lingfield: Handicap (Class 2)

Viewpoint: CD Winner, Last career win came over 12f here. Not a particularly good summer in big handicaps over the summer. Back on the AW will help, but on a high enough mark.

Castilo Del Diablo: Course winner over 12f, excelled on the AW over further in spring. Not seen since April. Trip probably too sharp and will come on for run.

Maverick Wave: Well bred & generally lightly raced, 3rd in hot Handicap over 9,5f at Wolverhampton. Talented and more to come but concern over trip and stamina up to 10f now.

Energia Fox: Brazilian import. Second in G1 earlier this year back home. Two 3rd places in Listed company since racing in UK. Surface unknown and might be better suited to further.

Lyn Valley: Decent handicapper, won Doncaster class 2 in July, disappointing in two most recent start. Little break. AW debut. Should be well suited on pedigree but career highest required.

Dominandros: Won twice in France this year, including maiden on AW. Not disgraced when 5th in hot AW conditions stakes over 1m at Chantilly last month. Return to 10f may suit. 

Verdict: I was very sweet on Maverick Wave the last time he was seen at Wolverhampton. He was backed off the boards that day - exactly the same happening this morning - but I felt he was rather disappointing the way he finished the race, having it on his mercy turning for home. My concern back then was that he may not quite stay the trip, which was what happened. He goes up an additional half furlong today. While it is not impossible that he finds the required improvement given that he is well bred and lightly raced, I find it hard to have enough confidence to back him for a very short price. However in this small field, the pace might be not as relentless as the last time, which should suit him. Nonetheless, 5/4 seems way too short. The Brazilian import Energia Fox is a very interesting runner if she is able to handle the All-Weather. She looks talented enough and is potentially on a very fair mark. The trip might be a bit too sharp though, and on pedigree I can't find too much that makes me confident that polytrack is her surface. So today I'm going to avoid her. I suspect that Castilo Del Diablo will use this run as a stepping stone after abscence, and Viewpoint may well be competitive, but is by no means well handicapped. The two horses towards the rear of the betting are very interesting though. Lyn Valley has the pedigree to excel on the All-Weather. He's been a decent handicapper, won a good handicap this year and may a horse that can improve now switched to synthetics. He is high enough in the mark but could easily outrun his price tag. The same counts for Dominandros, who is a bit an unknown quantity on his Handicap debut. However he is still lightly raced and shaped with promise in a couple of starts. He won on the All-Weather in France and when seen there the last time a couple of weeks ago, he ran well in a hot race. Up in tip shouldn't be a problem given that he won over 10f on soft ground in the past. That say he could be anything today, but given his nice AW profile, he is quite a big price. 

Dominandros @ 12/1 William Hill - 5pts win

Lyn Valley @ 14/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

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Nice winner yesterday with Street Artist, who won really well and much easier than expected. The perception that he has more to offer and a big chance quickly turned out under a penalty was right. He travelled much the best in hands of Joe Fanning and drew clear in the closing stages. The handicapper will probably catch up with him now, though

Betting: Tuesday 25th November 2014

15.10 Southwell: Handicap (Class 5)

Street Artist: Overcame widest draw and poor start to make all & win with plenty in hand lto. Pedigree to do really well on fibresand. Big chance under penalty.

Classic Colori: Has been hurdling lately. Potentially on very fair mark and good chance to go well on fibresand, but trip the big question mark. Though bit of stamina on dam side.

Yul Finegold: Fine second lto and 2lb rise in the weights leveled out through 7lb claimer on board today. Hasn’t won over 12f yet (0/5) and fibresand debut.

Luv U Whatever: Four times course winner, drop in class. May found 12f tick too far and not particularly well handicapped.

Layline: Has been placed in three of four Southwell starts. Gets the trip but mark high enough.

Royal Marskell: Good runner-up earlier this month, can race off same mark.

Mixed Message: Won seller lto. Didn’t land a blow in handicaps this year. Hard to know what to expect off current mark.

Reach The Beach: CD winner earlier this month, beating Royal Marskell that day. Cam well clear and chance to follow up. 

Verdict: I can't see why Luv U Whatever is a short as 5/2 and heading the market. His Southwell record is impressive but the trip seems too far judged on previous forms and given his current mark doesn't appear to be particularly generous, I find it easy to oppose him. Reach The Beach as recent course and distance winner should be right in the mix. She won well earlier this month and off a revised mark she can still go well today. Royal Marksell was fair and square beaten in the same race as a second that day and despite the swing in the weights, he may be simply in the grip of the handicapper. Street Artist tops the weights and is turned out quickly under a penalty a recent success at Wolverhampton. He must rate a big chance and looks overpriced. Leaving the turf forms aside, he has very strong All-Weather form to offer and his most recent success was visually very impressive. He had the widest draw to overcome, started poorly, yet jumped soon to the front of the field and set a very fair pace. Yet he was well able to quicken in the closing stages to draw clear and win in excellent style. He looks like an improving horse on the All-Weather and the switch to Southwell shouldn't stop that at all. He appeared to be perfectly fine on the fibresand on his first start when 2nd in a maiden last year, and on pedigree he has very strong credentials to well on this surface. 

Street Artist @ 7/2 Coral - 5pts win

Betting: Thursday 6th November 2014

19.40 Wolverhampton (Class 2 Handicap) - If Solar Deity is fully fit after his 202 days long break, he has a big chance, but I feel with the mark and big weight to shoulder, he is vulnerable if not at his brilliant best tomorrow. Favourite Maverick Wave makes plenty of appeal though. He is lovely bred, with a nice US pedigree and has strong form to his name, most recently on British Champions Day in a big Handicap where he finished a strong runner-up. He won on the All-Weather earlier this year and in fact the surface should be no problem at all. His mark looks more than fair as he could be easily the class act in this field, given that he has a weight advantage, all seems set up nicely for a win. Only slight concern is the trip. Not impossible that he gets the 9,5f, but something we have to find out tomorrow on the track. I still regard his price as too big given all the other facts mentioned. 

Small saver Earth Drummer. He tries the trip for the first time as well, but on pedigree there is no reason why he shouldn't get - and in fact - shouldn't improve for it. By Irish Derby winner Dylan Thomas out of a Giant's Causeway mare who's sire is dual Derby winner Generous. ED tried the AW quite recently for the first time, finished 3rd in a hot 7f race while having to overcome a wide draw and certainly didn't get the run of the race either. He stayed on nicely in the end. He should go close too and is overpriced imo. 

Maverick Wave @ 5/2 Bet365 - 10pts win

Earth Drummer @ 11/2 Bet365 - 5pts win

15.20 Meydan: Alraased @ 28/1 VC - 1pt win + Filfil @ 9/1 VC - 1pt win

Meydan opens its doors for the first time for their new season - a special one, as they laid out a new Dirt surface, which is replacing the Tapeta surface, which was in place the last couple of years. We will see how that goes. Personally I'm not the biggest fan of this surface, but I'm open minded to give it a fair chance. Anyway, I'm going to have a small punt on Alraased in the second race at Meydan today. Not sure what to get from him today but he looks pretty well handicapped on old form, being allowed to race off 75, while he won off 84 at Kempton a while ago. 2013 was a wasted year and he hasn't been seen for well over year until returning at Jebel Ali last month. Well beaten that day, but up in trip to 7f looks the right trip today and a four pound lower mark should give him a chance if he can regain some of his old best. Dirt is an interesting surface for him, with his US pedigree, it could work well. Otherwise nothing too obvious in this race in my mind anyway, even though Filfil makes also some appeal to me for a bigger price, given the fact that off 87 in February this year at Meydan, and is down to 80 now. He has a fine Dirt pedigree and may go well as a fresh horse today, the trip isn't an issue.

The Eye-Catcher: Wednesday 22nd October

18.55 Kempton: Wentworth Falls @ 10/3 VC - 4pts win

Big scopy gelding, though still a maiden after three starts, however showed loads of promise in all his starts. Really caught my eye in his latest run when he tried to make all from the front at Wolverhampton.. He was put under pressure from 3f out but was really game kicked on approaching home turn. He soon was clear and looked like the winner. However over 1f out he suddenly started to hang badly to his left and almost crashed into the rails. This cost an awful lot of momentum and he got eventually caught. He looks well capable to win a maiden though, and the step up to 1m should suit perfectly, being by Dansili as well the fact that he is a full brother to smart miler Strawberrydaiquiri. The wide draw is a bit of a natural worry today, but he should be able to overcome it with his gate speed and should have not too many excuses in the end.

The Eye-Catcher - Wednesday 15th October

15.00 Lingfield: Gold Waltz @ 13/2 VC - 2pts win

Very competitive nursery. The first three in the market make all appeal and a couple from the bigger prices aren't out either. I feel the filly Acclamation filly Gold Waltz could outrun her price tag though. 

She won well over course and distance in August, and followed up with a strong performance in a decent Kempton Nursery when she didn't have things going her way. The eventual winner looked way better than his mark, and had the run of the race from the front, while Gold Waltz settled in the last third of the field and had a wall of horses in front approaching the home straight. She had to delay her challenge and made her way through the field, finally in the clear, she had to quicken instantly. She did all this very well and finished a strong 2nd under hands and heels eventually. This form looks very decent, with the winner one I fancy to win again, and the 3rd a subsequent winner already. Gold Waltz has a pedigree to do well as a juvenile and she could well be better than her current mark.

The Eye-Catcher: Friday 10th October 2014

20.50 Wolverhampton: Bosstime @ 16/1 PP - 2pts win

Big performance last time under top weight over trip that stretches his stamina here at Wolverhampton. He had a wide draw, and wasn't helped by a sluggish start. He made up the lost ground quickly though and was soon up with a good pace. Then he took over the lead from over 3f out and increased the pace, wile turning for home still going strongly. Eventually he didn't quite see out trip and hit the well known brick wall around the final furlong marker but still finished a creditable 4th. The winner of this went on to win his next subsequent start and another rival who finished a good deal beaten, though, went on to finished 3rd subsequently. So this for looks rock solid. Bosstime has some pretty useful maiden from Ireland on Dundalk's All-Weather from earlier this year, and now in the UK he is on a handy mark. He drops in trip now which seems ideal, together with cheekpieces fitted for the first time, he has an awful lot going for himself. Big run is on the cards. Only concern is the wide draw. But you can't have it all, and he certainly is overpriced. 

21.20 Wolverhampton: Palace Princess @ 5/1 PP - 2pts win

Still a maiden but clearly improved in last two starts. Eye-catching performance in the latest over course and distance. Settled in rear from a wide draw, while making gradually progress and travelling notably the best approaching the home straight. However she was stuck in traffic behind a wall of horses. She got out late and had to fight hard to get that space, but once out there, finished extremely well and giving the impression she is clearly on a good mark right now and well up to win a race. Concern is that she may well need a bit in-running luck with her hold-up racing style in this big field around tight Wolverhampton.

A fancy for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Had the most horrible day punting wise one can imagine yesterday. Just horrible. Well, that's the way the game works sometimes. You put in hours and hours of work, and you get absolutely nothing back... not even a run for the money. Anyway, something to look forward today of course, because it is the big one looming - the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. 

I'm not in the mood to write a mega big preview, also lacking the time. But for days now I have one horse in mind for this race, which I actually didn't fancy at all soon after he won his prep race recently. Which is strange. Obvious things aren't as obvious sometimes, if you not look properly. But initial thoughts aren't always the best. Because they are reactions, and thought through. It takes time to think things through, and sometimes perceptions can change. So happend in the case of this particular horse. I'm talking about Ruler Of The World.

He's not the sexy horse in the line-up. Far from it. That are Taghrooda and Ectot. The thee year old generation. For a good reason. They are top class horses and have a proven themselves this season. But they are shot enough in the betting, because every man and his dog are keen on their chance. And that is funny, isn't it? Ruler Of The World won his prep run in the Prix Foy really nicely from the front. Yet he appears to be the forgotten horse. Mind you, he is a former Derby winner. Some say, a poor one. And I thought so too for a while. Anyway, as said before, immediately after the Foy, I wasn't impressed at all. It was just a pure feeling, nothing properly thought through. I have a different perception now. 

Mainly, because I feel he is the horse that will most likely get the run of the race - exactly the way he wants it. From an inch perfect draw (6), he'll be able to track the pace which will ensure he is in the right position when it matters. He won't need to hope for luck, he won't need to use valuable energy travelling wide. Pilot Dettori can kick on whenever he feel it is right. And then whe know ROTW will stay and run strongly to the line. Once hitting the front, he may be very hard to peg back. Well, that is the ideal scenario and we know racing doesn't work always like that. But, taking all that into consideration, he is certainly a very big price at 16/1. One addition point to make. He is a fresh horse. It will only his third start this season. That is a difference to most of his rivals, which had a long, though season, where they have fought many tough battles. A fresh Ruler Of The World, with the potential of getting the perfect run - that makes him a huge chance in my mind.

Ruler Of The World @ 16/1 Bet365 -2pts win

PREVIEW: Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2)

15.25 Turffontein: Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2), 1.450m 

Interesting race that evolves around the three horses at the top of the market. Experienced No Worries performs often well enough in Graded company and was quite well in form in recent weeks. His 3rd behind Futura in the Champions Cup rates a big performance, however he was slightly disappointing last time out, dropping in class into Pinnacle Stakes with conditions in his favour, when he missed the break and finished only 3rd in the end, while being the class act. He'll have his way up on front most likely today and that could be a big advantage, but after all his overall record is not all that impressive and I'll take him on for that reason. Midnight Run is another one well fancied. He is a super consistent horse, never been out of the money. He tries the trip for the first time and that is a worry. Not sure he really stays it, even though a slow pace would help him of course. But if he is quite up to Grade 2 level remains to be seen. But then, this is a perfect chance to put doubts aside. Snowden goes well at this course and distance, so he is in with a chance. He is very consistent and will run his race. 

But all of them are well exposed, which brings me to Rake's Chestnut. He is the lightly raced sort in this race, and he is classy. He won only on debut a maiden over 1.400m so far, but has big performances to his name. He finished agonizingly close in the Group 1 Daily News, when he had an interrupted run but finished off like a train once finding back his stride and almost got up late to beat subsequent Durban July and South African horse of the year Legislate. Without a doubt that is the stand out performance in this field, even though it came over 2.000m. Drop in trip shouldn't be too much of an issue. Rake's Chestnut was slightly disappointing when well fancied in the Durban July, but finished well beaten. Excused can be made as he was extremely keen in a slowly run race, was hampered early on and lost position, and had no chance from the position he came from. A break since, and sure he won't be 100% today, bigger targets are waiting. But he should be fit enough to beat this sold, but far from top class opposition today. He gets half a kilo from the other fancied runners, and that should be an advantage. 

Rake's Chestnut @ 2/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Wolverhampton Feature - Saturday 4th October

20.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f

History Book: Very keen and hanging around home turn when last seen at Kempton. Rather progressive before on turf. Won maiden over course and distance in winter last year and better expected this time.

Oddysey: All-Weather debut, strong performance at Pontefract earlier this month, but up in mark again and doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Not sure trip suits either.

Waveguide: Progressive on the All-Weather this winter, didn't stop improving on turf in summer month either. Not so good in latest, but raced in better class. Back on AW now. Likely up with pace.

Polar Eyes: All-Weather debut, by top class AW sire who has excellent Tapeta record. Not too many miles on the clock, even though didn't appear to have anything in hand on turf. Slight drop in trip might suit. 

Water Queen: Lightly raced, won maiden in tight finish over 7f recently. Step up in trip to suit on pedigree. All-Weather debut. More required here but open to improvement. 

Fruit Pastille: Won very nicely with first time blinkers at Lingfield over 1m when prominently ridden. New career best required and this a hotter race but step up in trip could bring out further improvement.

Outbacker: Better over All-Weather but has to bounce back and trip is a big worry. 

Brisk: Won maiden at fourth time asking over 7f recently, strongly staying on to get up in the end. Step up in trip very likely to suit, nicely bred out of G3 winning mare. If she takes to the AW, she'll be a big runner. Potentially lenient opening mark.

Dalmarella Dancer: Southwell maiden winner ,not disgraced in last starts, drops in mark again but need to find a bit more to be competitive here. 

Verdict: Open enough looking contest with some promising sorts. The race looks likely to be dominated by the three year olds and Fruit Pastille appears to be a solid favourite after winning well in first time blinkers. She has to improve and defy a new mark but may be able to do so over the new trip. Water Queen was a fine maiden winner recently and may have more to offer now upped in trip from a fair opening mark. Polar Eyes looks exposed on turf but the switch to All-Weather could be a fruitful one. She has top class pedigree credentials for synthetics. Recent maiden winner Brisk looks by far the most interesting runner though. She is extremely well bred, and was impressive when staying on strongly over sharp 7f to win cosily eventually, eleven days ago. She shoud have much more to offer over the further trip and her opening mark looks lenient, if she can take to the surface, which is the only concern. But that is a risk worth to take considering her huge price. From the older generation, History Book is expected to do much better then when seen last time. She was awkward and not right that day at Kempton. Waveguide is very decent runner who should be thereabouts, but giving weight away to talented young horses might a tough task.

Brisk @ 12/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

PREVIEW: Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)

15.30 Newmarket: Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1), 1m

Esoterique: Outstayed Integral in Dahlia Stakes in May, disappointing at Ascot subsequently. However won Group 1 Prix Rotshild in France then, beating 1.000 Guineas winner Miss France and Integral impressively. Strong performance against the boys when last seen in Group 1 company, while having way too much to do, when she was coming from off the pace and was asked for full effort too late. She finished strongly nonetheless in fourth.

Integral: Improving filly all year long, excellent Royal Ascot winner and followed up with impressive Group 1 Falmouth Stakes success. Not so good when third behind Esoterique when last seen, but then maybe she was a bit too early in front. She goes on any ground and is bound for a big run with conditions very much suit her. 

Sky Lantern: Not herself this season in two starts. Little break again since then and remains to be seen if she can be back to her brilliant best from last season. If so, she has a major say, for obvious reasons. She is a high class filly and connections gave her plenty of time to come alive again.

Etaab: Smart filly and a good Listed winner over 1m at Newmarket recently. her course and distance form gives her a chance here, but it is some step up in class and she has to improve a good deal to be a real contender.

Fintry: Improving all the time, excellent Group 3 winner at Sandown when last seen. Group 2 winner in native France this season. Has form on softish ground and remains one with huge potential. Has to improve again to be competitive against proper Group 1 opposition but every chance to be that good. 

Kiyoshi: Smart Juvenile and did well this season too, even though not quite as good as many would have hoped. Nonetheless she was a fine Group 3 winner at Doncaster last month. However she has never won over 1m and it seems the trip stretches her stamina a bit. 

Miss France: This years impressive 1.000 Guineas winner, didn't stay 10f in French Oaks, but better when runner-up behind Esoterique recently. However she was fair and square beaten that day and needs to find back to her brilliant best. She remains one with huge potential for obvious reasons and being back at her beloved Newmarket will surly help.

Verdict: Intriguing contest and wide open. It is a bit the clash of the young against the experienced. There is the up and coming star filly Fintry. She was mightily impressive this season on numerous occasions and she is expected to improve further to tackle Group 1's now. Integral proved her class this season on the highest level already, and she'll be up there as well, so should be Miss France, if back at her best. Etaab remains with potential too, while Sky Lantern goes well at Ascot and would be a major playing if bouncing back to form. The overpriced selection is the French filly Esoterique in my mind, though. She ran a big race against the boys in an extremely hot contest at Longchamp last month, and she travelled like the winner, though she had simply too much to do. Asked for full effort 300m out, the bird was long flown. But she beat some of todays rivals at Deauville impressively before, and there aren't too many reasons why she should run a big race once again. 

Esoterique @ 11/2 Paddy Power – 3pts win

PREVIEW: Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

14.40 Ascot: Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3), 1m 4f

Energia Fribby winning in Brazil

Pether's Moon: Big win in Turkey recently, consistently well throughout season against top class opposition. Ground independent. Sets very high standard. But gives also weight away.

Parsh Hall: Up in trip, first time over 12f. Chance on pedigree cause out of Montjeu mare. Needs quick ground to be seen at his best, rain at Ascot counts against him. Won G3 at the Curragh earlier this year.

Don't Stare: Progressive handicapper, looked potentially smart when winning conditions stakes at Doncaster in impressive style. Step up in trip, chance to stay on pedigree, though not entirely likely to suit. Obvious question is if he is good enough to compete on this level. Markedly step up in class and much more required today.  

Encke: Seem to be as good as ever. Good third in Irish St. Leger when last seen. Drops in class today. Collateral form with Pether's Moon when runner-up behind him at Goodwood. Fair and square beaten that day but was only back after long break. Gets plenty of weight from PM today and with that chance to turn form around. Trip potentially on sharp side. Rain not quite sure to suit.

Energia Fribby: A prolific Group 1 winner in her native Brazil. Made an excellent UK debut with Listed success at Chester. Travelled very strongly and made smart move on outside from over 3f out. Best form with cut in ground so any additional drop of rain would suit. Needs to take form to new level though, as this today is tougher. Gets plenty of weight from more fancied rivals.

Verdict: Encke has a good chance to turn things around with Pether's Moon as there is quite some swing in the weights. The former St. Leger winner seems to have retained his ability after a long break and followed up on his good comeback run, with a strong third in the Irish St. Leger. He's short enough in the market though, and this drop in trip with cut in the ground might not entirely suit him. Peather's Moon with his recent top run in Turkey sets the standard, he'll be happy on the ground and should go very close once again. He might find things a bit tough giving weight away, though. Parish Hall isn't one to trust on ground that is likely to come up soft. Don't Stare showed potential, but it remains to be seen if he is good enough here. Leaves us with Brazilian filly Energia Fribby. A multiple Group winner in her native country, including a Group 1 over 12f on softish ground. She'll relish any additional drop of rain today and she looked very promising on her recent UK debut run at Chester when she won quite nicely in Listed company. This is tougher today. But she might still be able to be a bit better and has a chance to run big from bottom of the weights today. I consider the prices available for her, as too big.

Energia Fribby @ 5/1 Bet365 – 3pts win

The Eye-Catcher - Thursday 2nd October 2014

20.15 Kempton: My Mo @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Drops down to 6f after being piped on the line eight days ago. The trip wasn't an issue that day and won't be tomorrow. Whether six or seven furlongs, I think it doesn't make too much of a difference for this 2yo colt. He was pretty impressive in this latest run, incidentally his handicap debut. He didn't show anything in three maiden starts and was sent off a 50/1 no hoper. He had to overcome the widest draw in a 12 runner field and he did that nicely in fact. Obviously you need to use plenty of horse to make it from such a wide draw to the front before the bend in a big field, yet My Mo was travelling extremely well and kicked on from 2f out. He was put under pressure left and right but impressively pulled out more and more. Close to the line the eventual winner came on the wide outside to stay on and get the head in front on the line. I suspect that My Mo didn't see the horse coming and looked actually like doing enough to keep his head in front of the horses around him. 

He gets a massive chance to make amends, as he can race off the same mark again and he has a muck kinder draw this time. There are couple of unexposed horses in the field and that is always a worry, but it is proven fact for me that My Mo is a good deal better than a rating of 51. It also has to be noted that from a pedigree point of view he has it all going to be a decent 2yo sprinter over 6-7f.

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We had a massive night at Kempton on Wednesday! Our very first eye-catcher from the newly introduced column won nicely. If you follow our blog, you got 5/2 last night, which looked big eventually, as First Rebellion went off the 6/4 favourite. He repaid all the faith with a very nice victory from the front. As we expected, he jumped well from his good draw, was in front, which is a big advantage over the 5f trip at Kempton, and held off his main rival. The night became even better when Daaree got up late to win the feature on the night. Our deep analyzes of that particular contest, a very intriguing one we mentioned beforehand, yielded in a profit as it turned out that Daaree had indeed too much in hand for his rivals. He didn't look an easy ride and was slightly outpaced approaching the home straight, but once hitting top gear, he always looked certain to get up on the line - what he did in the end. 

Race Of The Day - Wednesday 1st October 2014

19.45 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 1f

Opera Box: Decent recent run over CD in better class, not quite clear run from well off the pace. On fair mark and this easier, so should be thereabouts.

Masterpraver: Progressive and strong runner-up when last seen over CD, form works out really well, but up five pounds for it and needs to improve again. 

Rosie Probert: Made a name for herself over hurdles, won maiden at Epsom last summer, not seen since December and hard to know what to expect.

Daaree: Generally lightly raced, won 12f Handicap at Wolverhampton lto, looked to have still bit in hand when staying on strongly. Not impossible to improve further, despite 5lb up. Might be found out for speed over this trip. 

Marzante: Good return to racing after long lay off when only narrowly denied at Epsom. Travelled really well and may be able to improve from there. 3Lb up but was higher rated earlier in career. Big question mark is the trip. Not entitled to stay on pedigree and never tried before. 

Kastini: Never won on the All-Weather but has some decent performance to his name. Won over 11f in the past. Looked well held on recent mark over CD a fortnight ago. Even though travelled wide throughout and with more energy conserving ride may finish closer. 

Collaboration: Not quite clear run lto but seemed to run out of steam late when in the clear. On high enough mark at the moment. Should be okay over trip and one from one on the All-Weather. Taking on the older horses may suit with WFO allowance. 

Topamichi: Progressive last year, poor showings this season. Slightly further trip may suit and down to more realistic mark, but needs to find sparkle again on first All-Weather start. 

Verdict: This seems a rather open contest, due to the fact that no horse is sticking out as a really obvious contender. It is easy to see why Opera Box is the favourite, though. She has the best form to offer as her 4th place in a hot class 3 Handicap is in fact a very decent piece of form. Dropping in class, she has a good chance to go very close if she can repeat to run to that sort of level. On the other hand, she is not the most consistent animal, and she appears to be only a fair price in my mind. From the others, I would like to think that Collaboration could be in for a good run, taking his recent decent performance into account as well as the fact that the WFO allowance counts for him. Otherwise, Kastini for a big price might be rather interesting, but of course is none to put too much faith in. That leaves - more or less - the Godolphin runner as the most interesting choice. Daaree looked an improving juvenile when he won a Wolverhampton Handicap in taking style back in September 2012. He was off for almost two years subsequently, but has improved with each run since being back. His Yarmouth run is a good piece of form, when he was found out for speed in the closing stages however. His most recent success at Wolverhampton over 12f was quite a decent performance then. He didn't have quite the run of the race, but looked always to get there once in the clear approaching the home straight. Five pounds up for that is more than fair and he could still be improving a bit. Whether the slight drop in trip suits, is another question. But I'd like to see him handily ridden, as he did in his 2yo career. I feel that of his current mark, he could have then too much to offer in this field. 

Daaree @ 10/3 VC – 4pts win

The Eye-Catcher - Wednesday 1st October 2014

17.45 Kempton: First Rebellion @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win

First Rebellion is one of the horses highlighted in our new Eye-Catchers column. He is quite an interesting horse in this poor class 7 Handicap tomorrow - for plenty of reasons. He drops another 2lb since his most recent impressive run, has a good draw for his front-running tactics and I can't see too much competition for the lead. Should be straightforward and Kempton's 5f track favours horses up with the speed. His profile as per our Eye-Catchers list:

"First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably."

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Modernism, our Tuesday selection, ran a perfect race and finished very creditable runner-up, only beaten by handicap debutante and feather weight Dream Child.  

PREVIEW: Race Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September

18.20 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f

Mubtadi: Returned recently after a break at this venue, travelled well enough but tired badly in the home straight. Badly needed the run. Another month long break now is a worry. Travelled like the winner in March over course and distance when back from almost a year long break, just beaten by horse in front that pulled out more. Loves the All-Weather, and on that form chance with 5lb claimer, if back to best.

Off The Pulse: Progressive this summer since getting off the mark over course and distance off 3lb lower back in December. Won class 3 handicap at Haydock, followed up with strong runner-up performance at Ayr. Chance to progress further and on fair mark.

God's Speed: Won maiden over CD by ten lengths back in February, but beat donkeys that day. Since then racing of high marks usually in hot company. Best performance over CD ten days ago in better class, travelling wide and good move from 4f out but tired worryingly inside final furlong. May need more assistance from handicapper but down in grade and in smaller field might help to see him competitive.

Modernism: Slipping down in the mark and can race off 5lb below his last winning mark (over CD, and looked good for more that day). Clear return to form in competitive 12f handicap at Kempton last week, staying on well from off the pace where it favoured horses up with the speed due to a pedestrian pace. Drops down to favoured 9f trip after being campaigned over further throughout the year. Should be very competitive. 

Mazaaher: Clearly going strongly on the All-Weather. Won in August over CD off 4lb lower showing guts and determination and followed up with strong performance when only narrowly denied. Disappointing on turf subsequently, but back on the AW will help and must be an obvious contender with further improvement not unlikely. 

Dutch Rifle: Didn't stay 11f last time out, but is two from two over course and distance. Still lightly raced and as 3yo obvious chance with WFO allowance. If quite good enough against hot opposition remains to be seen as hasn't fired on this kind of level yet.

Dream Child: Contested in good maidens on the All-Weather and placed in all three of them, while beaten there by some good individuals. Didn't seem to stay 10f in all those starts. Handicap debut now and slight drop in trip will surly help as he's bred for much shorter. Mark looks fair and prominent racing style could be advantage if not too much pace is on.

Verdict: An extremely competitive and deep contest. Any of the seven horses has a fair chance to get the head in front. Pace should be on with Dream Child, God's Speed and Dutch Rifle - they are all likely to have the desire to be up with the speed. Godolphin's Dream Child seems a rather short favourite considering how competitive this race is, even though he makes plenty of appeal from a pure weight perspective, receiving weight all around. He didn't look to stay 10f in three starts though, and the drop in trip to nine furlongs might not be enough for him. He's bred for shorter. Off The Pulse is a solid contender, has a fine CD record and if he's fit after a break, he should be thereabouts. He doesn't strike as a particularly well handicapped individual, though. Mazaaher won well over CD not too long ago. He can progress further, has to put a poor recent showing behind however. The remaining three year old contenders Dutch Rifle and God's Speed may be well capable of further improvement, but that says that they have enough to do from their current marks. Mubtadi is to a certain extend a key horse. If he could find back to his best, he'll be a very dangerous contender. He has been fading quite badly when seen the last time, and perception is that he may struggle yet again here. Leaves us with Modernism. He has plenty going for him in the right direction. The drop in trip back to his optimum should be a big help, so should be the fact that he is well handicapped on old form, and his recent strong Kempton run suggests, that he is hitting a bit of form and is the one they all have to beat. 

Modernism @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 3pts win

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Winner: Mondays race of the day turned out to be the cracker, we hoped it would be in advance, There was loads of early speed on, we got an exciting and tight finish ANDR the right result from a betting perspective. Favourite Red Lady lead the field as expected and travelled smoothly indeed. However the handicapper seems to have finally caught her, as she wasn't quite able to sustain her powerful effort for as long as it was required this time. The strong travelling Royal Birth went past her in the dying strides and was well on top crossing the line eventually, winning it by ¾ of a lengths. Oisin Murphy gave the Exceed and Excel a peach of a ride  - btw. this was the first Bath winner ever for the young Irish jockey - and the lightly raced colt seems well able to progress even further. Good for us: In the betting he wasn't really fancied and an SP of 8/1 is a welcome bonus.

Eye-Catchers - With an eye on the future

A new (well in fact a rather old column, if you still know the old blog) on Horseracing-International.com: Providing a regular list of horses that caught my eye for numerous occasions. Bringing up this column again because the All-Weather season is due to kick off and that provides usually very good opportunities, as the same horses do race oftrn again and over the winter, so you get to know them well, and of course it is a feasible amount of racing to watch - as that is the most important part of the exercise - which makes things easier. I expect this to be successful, as it used to be in the past, particularly in the last winter, when the eye-catchers did an excellent job for the blog.

Al, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Maiden: Interesting debut run for this Haling son. He got hampered right after the start but settled okay soon after towards the end of the field. He seemed to be slightly outpaced coming around the home bend and needed a bit encouraging by the jockey on board to keep on travelling, but in the it wasn't more than a light hands and heels ride and Al stayed on well to finish a fine 3rd over a trip which should be well short of what she requires. The winner of this race should go on to do well too, but for Al the future might lie in Handicaps. She has plenty of stamina left and right of her pedigree and will improve once stepping up in trip.I suspect that she will have two more maiden starts over 6f before she goes handicapping over a new trip and a potentially lenient mark.

State Of Union, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Nursery: Nursery debut that night and had to overcome the widest draw in the race. He marched to the front straight from there, while looking extremely keen and he must have used allot of energy in those early parts of the race. Yet he travelled strongly and kicked clear in the home straight. He got a bit tired in the end but brought it home. He has the pedigree of progressive 2yo sprinter and his revised mark (78) is potentially still underestimating his class. If he can settle better and has a better draw the next time, he can win again.

Yodelling, 2yo filly - Kempton 5th September, 7f Conditions Stakes: The filly couldn't have been more impressive on her racecourse debut. She appeared to be a bit green turning for home, but appeared back on the bridle and looming strongly from 2f out. In the end she won easily and emerges as a very exciting prospect. Extremely well bred, she has a good deal of stamina on her dam side, and her profile is pointing towards middle distance. She looks a very nice big, scopy filly and should improve as a 3yo. She has some potential and might even be a filly that we will see in Dubai later on.

First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably. 

Bosstime, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 9f Handicap: Only his second start since coming over from Ireland. Sluggish start and had to use an awful lot of energy to get up to the front after the start. Travelled best of all their turning for home when making move from 3f out. Didn't quite see out the trip. Best performances came over 1m in Irland in competitive maidens and Handicaps when he finished runner-up three times. Expect him to drop further in the mark and down to a mile, should see him able to win a race. Blinkers would also be interesting. 

Maggie Pink, 5yo mare - Kempton 25th September, 1m Handicap: Prolific front-runner but had a tough task in her latest start. Back after a summer break as top weight in a hot handicap, of a career highest mark over a trip that stretches her stamina. It was never her day. She did well for that, set a quick pace and led the field by a couple of lengths approaching the home straight. As expected she tired badly in the closing stages. Once she gets a bit of leniency from the handicapper and drops doen to her optimum 7f, she'll be well able to win another race or even races as her last performances before the break clearly indicating that she is still improving. 

Steal The Scene, 2yo colt - Kempton 25th September, 6f Nursery: Lightly raced, fast improving colt. Won Windsor maiden in tacking style and was mightily impressive here at Kempton. He was caught up behind a wall of horses and had nowhere to go from 3f out. His jockey take a big pull and dropped him subsequently out to last, in order to switch from the inside rails to the widest outside. The colt found his stride very quickly again and thundered home strongly. Only a resonably talented horse is capable of doing such a move as smoothly as he did. He appears to be well handicapped and it is unlikely that the handicapper will put him up for this. 

Wentworth Falls, 2yo gelding - Wolverhampton 11th September, 7f Maiden: Seems a tricky customer but has talent. Jumped quickly and led field, setting a quick pace. A strong galloper he is, he had the whole field off the bridle turning for home with a healthy advantage. When things seemed settled, his jockey gave him an additional crack with the whip to keep him focused entering the final furlong. Suddenly the gelding started to hang towards the rail badly, probably running away from the whip which cost vital momentum and a staying on rival fought him down eventually. He'll go handicapping next probably, and depending on the opening mark, could be underestimated. He is still green but will learn and as a  Full brother to smart miler Strawberrydaiquiri, has certainly the right pedigree.

Steeldriver, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 27th September, 7f Handicap: This horse is going to win next time - if the handicapper isn't too hard on him. Reasons are obvious. After missing the break, he used loads of energy to go around whole field making up for the lost ground. While he was travelling always wide, he started big move from 4f out and turned for home as leader thanks to some impressive acceleration. He seemed to put the race to bed in a matter of strides and certainly looked the clear winner entering the final furlong. His jockey felt probably the same way and turned around one numerous occasions to see where his rivals are. He did this one time too often approaching the half furlong marker. Losing concentration on keeping the horses for a split second, allowed the gelding to drift towards the rail and through that losing momentum - which in turn cost the race as a rival cam thundering down from behind getting up on the line. Steeldriver was down to a career lowest mark and is clearly better than that, particularly over the 7f trip, which seems his optimum. Even if the handicapper puts him up two or three pounds, he should be well in. 

Race of the day - Monday 29th September

15.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Al Senad: Won 5f maiden at Beverly in tremendous style. Disappointing that he couldn't follow up in two subsequent starts. Drops 5lb in mark, and that might make him competitive again. Track could suit.

Red Lady: Two from two over course and distance. Much improved since having hood this season, progressive and might not be the end for her. With apprentice allowance gone this time, she is effectively 6lb higher for her recent narrow win. 

The Dandy Yank: Competitive and progressive earlier this summer. Won Kempton claimer recently, but subsequently disappointing in Wolverhampton handicap. High enough mark.

Royal Birth: Runaway maiden winner at Wolverhampton. Couldn't follow up subsequently in two strong handicaps (strong form). Slipping mark can help to become competitive again and this looks easier on paper. Still lightly raced and back after break.

Threetimesalady: Drops in trip which needs to bring out improvement as otherwise looks on high enough mark. Hasn't shown any sparkle this season.

Shilla: Has course form and went close over 6f earlier this summer. Minimum trip seems too short and doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Was a good deal beaten in a similar race a fortnight ago.

Gulland Rock: Ran well over minimum trip earlier this year when he won at Catterick and followed with three runner-up efforts subsequently. Not completely out of this but need to show improvement. 

Verdict: Close contest on paper and hard to fancy anyone with confidence. Red Lady loves it here but has a new career highest mark to defy and won only by the tightest of margins while having the run of the race. She might get company up on front this time. Al Senad would be interesting if he could find back to his strong Beverly run, but on balance he looks still high enough in the mark. Most interesting is Royal Birth for a pretty big looking price. He looked extremely good when blitzing his rivals in a Wolverhampton maiden this winter, couldn't quite follow up in the summer in hot handicaps, but is subsequently down in the mark and this here is a tick easier. He remains of interest and could be better than the current rating. 

Royal Birth @ 7/1 Bet365 – 3pts win

PREVIEW: Land Rover Nursery (Class 4)

15.20 Ripon: Land Rover Nursery (Class 4)

Bizarrio: Won maiden at Chester over 7f from front. Found out for class on handicap debut subsequently. Should be suited by step up in trip on pedigree. Stiff mark though for what he has achieved in maidens. 

Grey Sensation: Impressive maiden winner on penultimate start over 7f. Excused last time when beaten by smart winner and disadvantaged how race panned out, while travelling well actually. Got carried across the track from 2f out too. Step up in trip looks fine on pedigree. Potentially on lenient mark now.

Cape Hideaway: Very gutsy maiden winner over 7f lto. Pulling his way to the front, slightly outpaced 3f out and fought gamely on to the line. Fair opening mark. Up in trip looks possible, will need to learn to settle. 

Laidback Romeo: Not quite lucky last too times, not clear run for very long time on handicap debut recently, finished nicely. Not impossible to get trip with stamina on dam side. 

Lear'sRock: Excellent Handicap debut, made all, just beaten late on the line by closer. Up 3lb which seems fair. Form starts to work out. Step up to mile could work. 

Summer Stroll: Finished strongly in latest handicap when stuck in traffic for long time.. Seems rather exposed but judged on recent performance is clearly up to winning of current mark. Enough in pedigree to suggest step up in trip can bring out bit of improvement.

Verdict: Wide open race, plenty of chances and most horses trying the mile for the first time. Not unlikely to suit most, but also not clear that it does. Laidback Romeo was probably unlucky at Sandown recently, but as to prove stamina, as he was fading badly in a slowly 7f contest before. Grey Sensation is interesting, won well a maiden and was not quite suited the way the raxce was run in a strong handicap, down in class, he is a fine chance on balance. Lear's Rock did well from th e front when beaten late, but new trip and higher mark is something to be cautious about I feel. Bizarrio needs to bounce back. Summer Stroll as the bottom weights makes plenty of appeal over the new trip to suit and with the recent strong performance in a hot handicap, even though he is the one with most mileage under the belt. He seems rather big in the market as he should have as good a chance as anybody. Completely overlooked seems Cape Hideaway- Ground and trip as slight concerns, but he showed loads of guts when winning a decent Thirsk maiden, which form looks solid with the second having won subsequently. 

Summer Stroll @ 7/1 Betfred – 2pts win

Cape Hideaway @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 1pt win

PREVIEW: Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

15.10 Newmarket: Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

A hot contest with classy juveniles - it's fair to say that it'll fast and furious! Some of the best two year old sprinters gonna meet in this contest on the highest possible level. Obvious favourite is Richard Hannon's precocious ultra speedy filly Tiggy Wiggy. Not many have foreseen that she would develop into the classy speed ball that she is now, when she appeared on the Kempton All-Weather on her debut. She won by seven lengths that day! Since then she has won another four races, including the prestigious Lowther Stakes, beating subsequent Group 1 winner Cursory Glance rather easily. It won't be an easy task today, though. She is on the go already for quite a while this year, and her only run on quick ground resulted in a defeat - even though a very narrow one, and over 5f. The rather testing Newmarket 6f may be something, not quite playing into her hands either. So if you want to find flaws in her form, then you can find them. But no doubt, she is an extremely exciting filly! 

Queen Mary Staes conquer Anthem Alexander did bet Tiggy Wiggy that day at Royal Ascot. The Hannon filly put the record straight in the Lowther stakes subequently, then over 6f instead of the shorter trip, though. And it is the trip indeed which emerges as the main question for Anthem Alexander. She seems a top class sprinter, particularly over five furlongs. Could it be that the additional furlong is beyond her? We'll find out today. The French filly High Celebrity doesn't have to answer stamina questions. She won over 7f on debut, finished runner-up in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes when beaten as long odds-on favourite, even though things didn't really work her way that particular day and she is better judged on her recent success in a French Group 3 over five furlongs, when she drew clear in fine style in the closing stages. She looks open to much more improvement, she is still very lightly raced and the fact that Andre Fabre brings her over again is a big confidence boost, given the trainers excellent record here.  

Arabian Queen, winner of Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, wasn't quite suited by the step up to 7f subsequently, and will be better now down to six again. She is a very good filly in her own right, if she has quite the speed on quick ground against this top class opposition remains to be seen though. Lightly raced Oasis Dream filly Tendu was a runaway winner at Kempton earlier this month. It's quite a dramatic step up in class today, but she is open to improvement and we will be able to judge her much better after this race. David Simcock's Terror won a Warwick maiden by an impressive 10 lengths on debut. She doesn't have a flashy pedigree, but deserves her chance. Zuhoor Baynoona finished a decent third in Listed company last time out, following up on a good maiden success. She steps up to 6f for the first time, and that has to make a big difference, to see her competitive today. 

Verdict: Tiggy Wiggy is the class act in this field, but drifting in the market, and there are reasons for it. Quick ground, stiff track, long season - she has to be at her absolute best today to win. And while she is such an exciting filly, it might be worth to take her on with the French filly High Celebrity. Andre Fabre doesn't bring runners over to Newmarket if he doesn't think they can and his record speaks for itself. The filly is lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement. She looks the value against the hot favourite. For backers of long-shots, it might be interesting to get some quid on Arabian Queen. She'll be better down in trip, has won a Group 2 already and is a huge price. 

High Celebrity @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Arabian Queen @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win