Sunday the 30th of June...

17.45 Curragh: Sherzam @ 12/1 Boylesports - 2pts win

Sherzam is a really interesting runner here tomorrow in this big handicap, and while I usually try to avoid such big fields I feel this 3yo filly has a fantastic chance. She really caught my eye a couple of month ago at the Curragh in a very competitive Handicap when she faced much stronger opposition than tomorrow. She travelled like a dream that day but got badly hampered 2f out which cost her every chance to finish closer as what she did in the end. She kept going after finding back into her rhythm and finished a good 3rd. She went into maiden company after that and got no clear run there again. After all I feel she is ahead of her handicap mark and the booking of useful apprentice LP Dempsey (20% strike rate with Carmody/Murtagh) who claims 7lb is another positive. If she gets a clear run she'll be hard to beat. 

Saturday, 17:50 Curragh....

17.50 Curragh: Red Dubawi @ 27/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Red Dubawi is a huge price here. The race looks wide open to me and I think Red Dubawi has decent form to offer. After all I thought he ran a huge race at Cork lto, when he was unlucky not to win. He travelled like a dream in the middle of the pack, on the bridle even approaching the 1f marker, but he couldn't get a run through until his jockey took a pull inside the final 200y and manoeuvred him through an opening gap after as soon as Red Dubawi was balanced again. He finished strongly hands and heels in 3rd eventually. The ground will be a huge difference today compared to last time, but I think it shouldn't cause any trouble, it might even be a positive.

Saturday the 29th of June...

 Choral Prince, recent Kempton winner, is a strong chance at Doncaster

Lovely win for Tax Free at Newmarket tonight @ 16/1! Still can't believe the price Ladbrokes offered last night. Was absolutely massive. I wasn't the only one who thought so and therefore Tax Free was very well back over the whole day and went off an 8/1 chance eventually. He travelled then very well through the race, taking a prominent position and Tom Queally gave the 11 year old veteran a peach of a ride, keeping him together as long as possible. Tax Free won it in a photo in the end, had it by a good nose. This win draws further profit to the blog and it looks now likely that July will achieve an all time monthly high. It's 68 points profit this month so far!  

Unfortunately the biggest bet of the day was a flop though. I had high hopes in Floralys, who travelled very well then for a long time of the race but faded badly in the closing stages for whatever reason. The winner had the run of the race from the front though, so it's not everything lost in this case and she can clearly win a race but I would be wary of backing her the next time...



17.10 Windsor: Frognal @ 14/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Frognal changed yards recently what is a big worry as the new trainer looks useless on stats. But I thought Frognal is down to a very tempting mark, has a decent 5lb claimer booked and comes here on the back of a really interesting performance in much higher grade. He travelled really well in a class 3 Handicap at Yarmouth earlier this month and looked in with a good chance to go really close approaching the 2f marker but got then very badly hampered and completely blocked. He lost his momentum and every chance to finish the race in a good way as a result. His performance looked much better than the bare result of this race suggests though and therefore I think he could go very well tomorrow in this class 5 handicap, with conditions to suit.


18.05 Doncaster: Choral Prince @ 11/2 VC - 2pts win


I ignore what this horse has done until his most recent start at Kempton, when he won by a narrow margin on paper, but with with ease in reality. Choral Prince stepped up to 12f for the first time that day, racing mainly over 1m before, and he responded in the best possible manner to the new trip. He travelled nicely in rear, and made easily ground in the home straight, always travelling very much the best. Once switched to get a clear view he had only to be pushed out, hands and heels ridden, to go to the front and finish full of running to win with authority. He gets 10lb for this in theory, but his turf mark was that high before anyway, so not really that much of a change. He didn't win on turf yet, but there isn't really an issue with the surface I suppose as he finished 2nd in a Yarmouth maiden and should be much better now over the 12f trip. He's still very much unexposed over this sort of trip and with decent apprentice Michael J M Murphy taking the ride, who claims very valuable 5lb, I thin he's still a slightly too big price in this race.

Friday the 28th of June...

14.50 Yarmouth: Floralys @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Still a maiden after 11 races but was massively eye-catching at Lingfield recently. Floralys got badly outpaced early on in rear of the field and was- never travelling. She looked to go absolutely nowhere even approaching the 1f marker, but then she found her stride, forced her way through a tiny gap 1/2f out and finished full of running and a fantastic 4th on the line. There is no doubt that she's crying out for a step up in trip and thankfully she gets her chance over 1m tomorrow at Yarmouth. Her mark looks low enough, the additional 1lb compared to last time won't make any difference and Jamie Spencer is booked which speaks for itself. The race looks not overly strong and Floralys should run a big race really.


21.10 Newmarket: Tax Free @ 16/1 Ladbrokes - 1pt win

Tax Free - the veteran looks almost as good as ever

Can't help myself but this looks a massive price. Tax Free looks as good as ever to me and is still capable of winning these type of races, particularly of his current mark I think. He ran a huge race at Nottingham earlier this month, when he finished 2nd to an improver who had also the run of the race from the front on the rails. I thought Tax Free looked unlucky at Ayr lto when he travelled nicely but got hampered over 2f out and couldn't recover from that.

It's fair to assume that he's much better than the bare form of that race suggest and with conditions in favour tomorrow, as he gets his beloved fast ground and goes very well at Newmarket with Queally booked, I think he can be a lively danger to the short favourite. Asian Trader might be well in the weights here, but he was beaten last time out at Salisbury while having the run of the race and absolutely every chance. So it could be well the case that he's simply fairly handicapped and therefore too short in the market, while Tax Free should enjoy to be back at an open track like Newmarket. 

Thursday the 27th of June...

That's a bit of a disappointing day really. Mabait just had no chance from his position in a slowly ran race, travelling keen without cover in rear on the outside. Definitely well worth another chance and would stick my neck out that he's poised to win soon. Much in contrast to Take A Note who was simply not good enough today and looked very, very ordinary.


16.00 Newcastle: Korngold @ 16/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

This is an interesting horse even though a quite frustrating sort too. I thought his seasonal reappearance at Beverly recently was one to take note of as Korngold travelled actually quite well in rear but was simply in a position turning for home where he had no chance to win from. He didn't really get the run of the race in the closing stages either and was eased down. Think he could have finished closer if fully ridden out than he did eventually anyway. So he should strip fitter with this run under his belt now, as well as he's down to a low mark, 5lb below his last winning mark, and he has a pretty decent 7lb claimer booked for the ride for a trainer who did well at Newcastle in the last couple of month. I'm slightly worried about the fast ground and the trip which could be a bit on the short side for Korngold, yet it's well worth a chance at this price for mentioned reasons.



20.50 Hamilton: Findog @ 9/1 William Hill @ 9/1 - 2pts win

Two impressive performances in a row for this 3yo gelding. He stayed on very well over too short 5f at Musselburgh when having a bit of in-running trouble and he was seriously unlucky in his most recent outing at Hamilton when he travelled like a dream in a 6f Handicap, still on the bridle approaching the 2f marker, but got then into real trouble. He tried to force his way through horses in the closing stages, but he got bumped and short of room and lost every chance to finish in a better position. With the the 4th having won in the meantime I would think this is decent form, and as Findog could be easily a couple of pounds higher in the mark now if he would have get a clear run lto, I think he is well weighted in this race being able to go into this race as a featherweight.

Wednesday the 26th of June...

15.50 Salisbury: Mabait @ 12/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win

I'm a bit excited about this chance as I feel Mabait could be very, very well handicapped tomorrow, coming down a long way in the mark and showing an impressive return to form at Newbury in a competitive Handicap recently. He travelled like a dream for a very long time, and the jockey looked to have loads of horse beneath but then when it mattered he couldn't find a gap and was short of room over 2f out. Mabait showed then something that you don't see that often or only from horses who are in really fine form or have something in hand, as he switched to the left, found quickly back his balance and quickened in a matter of strides - just to find himself short of room around the 1f marker again. Race over obviously then, but it was a hugely impressive performance in my mind and this goes along with his current handicap mark which hasn't been as low since 2009!

Of course his last win dates back a couple of years too, but he ran in top class races and had to shoulder big weights. He steps up to 1m tomorrow again, which is perfectly fine as well as he gets his beloved fast ground. Slight worry is the jockey booking with Laura Pike not being an overly strong apprentice but she rides okay actually and her 5lb claim is well worth. I would think if Mabait gets a clear run the little girl doesn't need to do much anyway except of avoiding a fall.

21.20 Kempton: Take A Note @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 Take A Note ran with loads of credit on his seasonal reappearance at Brighton earlier this month. He was outpaced halfway through in rear, switched over 3f out to the inside where he found himself short of room a bit later and he had to delay his challenge and had to switch to the outside again over 1f out. Once balanced again he stayed on well to finish 3rd. He steps up in trip to 1m which looks very interesting. The way he got outpaced lto but also stayed on in the closing stages at Brighton where the uphill finish is tough suggests he'll relish the new trip. He has every chance to stay this trip on pedigree as well and might improve from his first outing this year. He clearly goes well on the All-Weather and could still have more to offer off his current mark now as a 4yo who didn't have too many starts yet and with the new trip to suit.

Monday the 24th of June...

19.40 Windsor: Short Squeeze @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Royal Windsor Racecourse

This looks an open race with some lightly and unexposed horses in the field, the favourite could be on a lenient mark anyway, but I like the chance of Short Squeeze as the bottom weight, going down in trip for a price I'd consider too big. Short Squeeze was an eye-catcher already in his penultimate run at Nottingham, when he was a bit unlucky, not getting the run of the race while travelling super well actually, much in contrast to the eventual winner. He stepped up in trip for his most recent race at Goodwood, which was clearly the wrong thing in hindsight. He was very much out of control soon after the start, refusing to settle and pulling his way to the front. The jockey allowed him to stride on and they got an easy time at the front, even though setting a fast pace. Short Squeeze really kicked on from 5f out, gaining a big lead and having the whole field soon after on the stretch, while travelling very well himself still, just until the 2f marker when the bubble burst and he faded, paying tribute to the pace and to what happened after the start. It looks a wise move going down to 1m now, which should allow Short Squeeze to settle better. He gets also 1lb off his mark, and could run a big race as feather weight in this race, as he should relish the likely fast pace here.

Saturday the 22nd of July...

Nice winner with Big Wave on Thursday! She bounced out off the gate and made all from the front to hold on and win it in a photo. It was a good nose in the end but it looked certainly closer at first glance. There was a bit of rule 4 deduction due to two non-runners but Big Wave went off SP3/1 anyway, so it's not too bad actually. Her win makes it now 5 out of the last 10 bets advised in this blog and a huge 65pts profit for June so far. Let's hope it continues this way...



14.50 Newmarket: Dance With Dragons @ 6/1 Betfred - 2pts win

Dance With Dragons really caught my eye thanks to a nice turn of foot a couple of weeks ago at Leicester. He was actually quite unlucky that day, travelling well in the pack but having no chance to find a gap for a very long time of the race. He just came free at the 1f marker and quickened instantly to put soon a gap between himself and the rest of the field. The winner, who got a clear run on the outside, was long gone though. Still a very nice performance, from a generally lightly raced gelding and on this evidence he looks ahead of his mark.

This form works out very well too, with the winner having been successful again as well as the third and fourth which won subsequently. After all  Dance With Dragons rates a big chance in this race here tomorrow, even though the jockey is a slight worry. Actually I think Laura Pike rides well enough, however her strike rate is poor. The trainers form isn't much better. So that has to be a concern, but I still think the horse is the main thing and  Dance With Dragons looks well in the weights. A 2pts win bet looks a sensible decision.  

Thursday the 20th of July...

19.30 Leicester: Big Wave @ 9/2 bet365 - 2pts win

Big Wave ran a big race at Yarmouth recently. She had an awful start, got back in touch with the field quickly though and travelled then really well in the pack. In fact she travelled very much the strongest, on the bridle until 1f out and looked to make a winning move from there. She got tired in the closing stages then though and just finished 2nd eventually. I'd assume she'd have won it with a clear start. She remains on the same handicap mark, so has a real chance to make amends for last week. She looks well handicapped on old form anyway as she won of a 2lb higher mark at Yarmouth last year. This is a pretty small field and surly not a particularly strong contest, so I'm slightly surprised about the price here, was expecting shorter odds.

Tuesday the 18th of June...

18.50 Sligo: Celticnama @ 53/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Huge odds available on the exchanges and I think they are not reflecting the true chance of Celticnama. This gelding is still lightly raced and while he didn't show much yet, his most recent run gives hope as he was quite unlucky and the performance way better than the bare result suggests. He was slowly into stride, which is never an advantage in a 6f race. He made up all the ground he lost at the start soon though and travelled well in pack from 4f out and looked in with a chance until he got baldy hampered inside the final two furlongs. He was eventually eased down. He steps up to 7f today again which should be alright and the booked apprentice rides well at Sligo and the trainer had in the last year only a couple of runners at this track but then he was extremely successful. So it's worth a shout I think.

Magic Saturday - 2 from 2!

Sam Charp - a winner @ 9/1 at York

Magic Saturday! Sam Charp won the big Handicap at York in really good style. The suggestion that he was well in the weights according to his last performance was correct. He travelled like a dream through the race, well off the pace for most of the time, but made gradually ground in the home straight. He was obviously very much helped by a very fast pace. The field was strung out and no hard luck stories this time. He got clear run on the outside and the response was there when Richard Kingscote asked the horse for everything. He took the lead over 1f out and put the race decisively to bed.

Tatlisu was the pinnacle on the cake with his close win at Leicester. He was a bit slowly into stride and didn't look entirely comfortable throughout the race but appeared to travell well enough from 3f out or so and he mounted a big challenge in the closing stages, kicking away just to get tired then and it almost looked as if he got caught on the line. Fortunately that wasn't the case. He made it 2 from 2 for my selections yesterday. Fantastic results obviously after things going really well in recent weeks anyway. It's now 54pts profit for the last four weeks! 

Saturday the 15th of June...

14.40 York: Sam Sharp @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Sam Sharp produced a huge performance at Haydock three weeks ago. He didn't have much going for him in that race, travelling super well but having a bunch of horses in front of his nose as well as to the left and to the right with no chance for escape. He had to wait until all horses passed him, so that he had a chance to switch to the outside approaching the 1f marker and once in the clear he finished like a dream to end up in 3rd place. He remains on the same mark and with a clear run he should go really close here tomorrow I feel.


19.35 Leicester: Tatlisu @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pt win

Thought Tatlisu ran a much better race than the bare form suggests lto at Ripon. He was unsettled throughout the race but looked to mount a big challenge approaching the 2f marker. He was then short of room there, tried to quicken again but was stopped abruptly again. I think he would have gone pretty close with a clear run. He's down to a very low mark now and could be better than this. A 5lb claimer on board is interesting too, and it wouldn't be a surprise it Tatlisu would make use of his low weight.

Friday the 14th of June...

16.20 Sandown: Shavansky @ 12/1 Ladbrokes - 2pt win

Shavansky doesn't get any younger but I really liked his most recent performance at Haydock when he travelled strongly on the inside rail, on the bridle until 2f out, but found himself short of room with no way to get out of a pocket. He had to sit and suffer. He got a bit of room over 1f out and ran on well under a light hands and heels ride, suggesting he's in fine form and might have a really big performance in him. He looks to have conditions to suit tomorrow with the step up in trip back to 10f in his favour, nice ground is perfectly fine too and he looks capable of his current mark. Atzeni booked for the ride is another plus.

19.15 Chepstow: Emiratesdotcom @ 16/1 VC - 1pt win

Looks a huge price for a horse that made a big impression at this track a couple of days ago. Emiratesdotcom had a horror run over 6f, missing slightly the break and getting outpaced early on, but then appearing strong travelling on the inside rail, just getting no run whatsoever. He tried to quicken several times when it looked for a short moment there could be a bit of room but he never found a way through until 1f out when finally a gap was there and he finished strongly in 3rd eventually. Judged on this performance he looks definitely on a dangerous mark as the handicapper left the mark unchanged and he's a couple of pounds below his last winning mark anyway. He steps up to 7f though, what is a slight worry, as he probably prefers shorter probably, but he won over this trip before and the ground should be suitable, so I think it's well worth a try at this big price.

Thursday the 13th of June...

20.00 Leopardstown: Celtic Dane @ 10/1 Bet365 - 1pt win + Carenza @ 14/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Celtic Dane was massively eye-catching a couple of weeks ago in a Handicap at Leoparstown on his seasonal reappearance, travelling well in rear, making a big move on the outside from 4f out but had to turn widest of all as a result which costs ground and energy. He appeared to have a lot to offer in the home straight but wasn’t all questions asked yet ran on well under a light hands and heels ride. He should be fitter with this run under his belt, no doubt, and he looks very dangerously handicapped now, being 24lb below his last winning mark. Big run expected here, with conditions to suit, there’ll be a bit of cut in the ground after loads of rain in the last 24 hours here in Dublin and he goes well enough on that sort of ground.

Carenza is a likely improver and could be ahead of her opening mark. She was very unlucky on her handicap debut last week at Fairyhouse when she travelled well in rear, tried to make ground on the inside turning for home but got there no run whatsoever, getting hampered with a wall of horses in front of her nose. She got a bit of room late and ran on well suggesting she has a bit of talent. Decent apprentice booked as well. Not sure about the ground, but well worth a try.

Monday the 10th of June...

16.45 Brighton: Good Luck Charm @ 5/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Good Luck Charm is a bit of a frustrating sort but is in good nick and was really unlucky not to win lto. He travelled really well in rear in a Lingfield handicap over 7f, but couldn't get a clear run on the inside rail, having always horses in front of his nose for almost the entire race. In the closing stages he got finally a bit of racing room and finished the race well enough but there is no doubt that he would have gone very close with a clear run. He remains on the same mark tomorrow, so gets a real chance by the handicapper and while the ground was soft the last time he won't mind the fast ground at Brighton either. Course form is crucial at this odd designed track I feel and the fact that he was only beaten on the line last year hear over 1m, and another good effort when placed here from just three starts is evidence enough that he goes well at Brighton. The two market principles in this race arereally interesting, no doubt, but I think Good Luck Charm is overpriced and will run a huge race.

More Questions a 14/1 winner...

More Questions a winner! The wide draw proved to be a good one today. He got a clear run on the outside, an ran away in the closing stages after a good battle. During the morning there was loads of money for him, he started a 13/2 chance eventually. No surprise. He surly was too big a price and dangerously handicapped. If he can win again, well that is a different question. But today was the day that mattered anyway. So lovely winner, after a couple of rather unfortunate results in the last two weeks. Some disappointments, some unlucky ones... but it's always important what you make in the long term. 

Saturday the 9th of June...

14.50 Navan: More Questions @ 14/1 VC - 1pt win

Was pretty unlucky lto at this track which produces hard luck stories no end. He travelled really well in rear of the field but had a bunch of horses in front of his nose all the time and when the race really unfolded he couldn't react, meeting loads of trouble. Once in a clear he finished well inside the final furlong but the bird was long flown. He gets another pound off his mark for this effort and looks dangerously well handicapped in my mind. It's "only" 15 runners today and I like to think to have the widest draw here isn't a big disadvantage, much the difference. For More Questions it should ensure a clear run actually. If he gets one, he'll be in the mix and the price is way too big.

Friday the 7th of June...

Unlucky today. Kelpie Blitz missed the break, but would have probably won with a clear run. He lost ground though - and the win - when short of room and very much hindered by the eventual winner 1f out. He finished a close 2nd in the end.


21.20 Haydock: Ambleside @ 10/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Pretty competitive race with loads of lightly raced horses in the line-up. The favourite could be still ahead of the handicapper but is pretty short and probably a bit too short in the betting market. Ambleside is a really interesting horse though, only five starts to date, low mark, with a bit of talent, but looks a tricky ride as well.I think he might have a couple of pounds in hand though and is very dangerous tomorrow. He had an absolute nightmare run at Chester a couple of weeks ago, when he was short of room turning for home and got hampered as well. He finished the race decent enough for all the trouble he encountered in-running. Off a mark of 73 in this race he is too big a price in my mind.

Thursday the 6th of June...

21.00 Sandown: Kelpie Blitz @ 18/1 Ladbrokes - 1pt win

Kelpie Blitz most recent performance at Leicester was one of the strangest rides I've seen. The horse was keen throughout the whole race, even pulling entering the 3f pole! The jockey looked actually to have a good deal of horse beneath him 2f out though but he never asked the horse a serious question. Maybe he felt the horses didn't have anything left due to the hard pulling, but for me it looked rather like a case of not riding the horse to finish in the best possible position. Anyway, I think this horse is much better than this last performance, it was his first start this season as well. He should improve from that and it looks to me as if he could be ahead of his mark. He won at Kempton in November with a bit in hand, producing a nice turn of foot from well off the pace over 10f and I feel he is potentially very dangerous tomorrow and could go well for a big price, if the handbrake is off. Baker booked for the ride suggest that might be the case, as trainer Durack likes to use him for his better horses.