Monday, September 30, 2013

Eye-Catchers: Tuesday the 1st of October...

14.10 Ayr: Two Shades Of Grey @ 11/4 Paddy Power - 5pts win

If Two Shades Of Grey gets a clear run tomorrow he should hack up and beat this lot convincingly. Not that I have a reason to be too confident in my selections after poor recent weeks but Two Shades Of Grey appears to be simply too well handicapped to lose here at the sixth time of asking. He was utterly unlucky last time at Hamilton, when he travelled well in rear and jockey Tony Hamilton looked to have loads of horse beneath in the closing stages but it wasn't to be. Two Shades Of Grey was stuck in traffic with no chance to get anywhere through and to make things worse he got badly hampered under 1f out, soon after he switched to right and it was hugely impressive to see this 2yo picking up so strongly as he hid and dropping in class but stepping up in trip, which can only be an advantage on pedigree, I can't see Two Shades Of Grey getting beaten here of his mark off 64. Let's hope confidence is once justified.


15.15 Ayr: Gran Canaria Queen @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 3pts win

Gran Canaria Queen should be shorter after her heroic performance at Ayr in a big Handicap sprint when he was just unlucky to be drawn on the wrong side. She raced on the far side with only a handful of horses, while a huge group had the full advantage on the stands side. Gran Canaria Queen ran a big race nonetheless, she finished almost five lengths clear of the rivals on her side, ears pricked even idling a bit in front as she had nothing to race against, while a race was ongoing on the other side, so that she finished only 4th in the end. She can race off the same mark tomorrow and looks still to be ahead of her mark after she won four times this year already, improving by 19 pounds. She won with a bit in hand at Newcastle at her third last start I felt, and while she was probably found out for class at her penultimate run at Hamilton in a hot class 3 Handicap, her most recent performance at Ayr, back in low grade, showed she is still well in the weighs, at least against the kind of opposition she's encountering in a class 5 handicap.

NAP of the Day: Monday the 30th of September...

15.40 Hamilton: Konzert @ 10/1 StanJames - 3pts win

Lightly raced Konzert must have a big chance conceding loads of weight from the other eight rivals here. He comes into this race after a really good performance at Wolverhampton, and with his US pedigree I would have liked to see him appearing on the All-Weather again, but there is something suggesting he could appreciate a bit of cut in the ground as well, as his sire's best performance came on slower ground actually, so he's of high interest here today I feel. Konzert didn't show too much in his first five starts, but looked very much improved last time out, as well as down to a mark he is capable off winning. He was slightly outpaced soon after the start, trailing the field for a long way, and as a result he faced an impossible task turning for home, and in fact the eventual winner travelled all the way from the front and wasn't to catch. But Konzert really made some eye-catching ground once straighten up in the home straight suggesting he's ready to strike sooner rather than later. Today he's facing older horses for the first time, but with the weight for age allowance, as well as his low mark plus the assistance of a decent 3lb claimer in the saddle he should really be poised to run a big race. I fear the threat of I'm Super Too most, as that one looks dangerously well weighted now. But fairly confident in my selection today, thinking 10/1 is a huge price.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

The Big Race: Cambridgeshire

15.50 Newmarket: Cambridgeshire Handicap 

Proud Chieftain
The Cambridgeshire is a hugely competitive race this year as always with many good and interesting runners but there are two horses that look well overpriced in my mind. As the pace should be strong it probably is an advantage to stay a bit further than the 9f and that makes Gabrial The Great really interesting here. He clearly is best over 10f, he goes well on fast ground, and he has an eye-catching recent performance to offer, when he finished 2nd to Ascription over 1m. I believe he can turn around this form in a race like this over the additional furlong, meeting Ascription on four pounds better terms as well. Gabrial The Great travelled like a dream that day, two weeks ago, almost on the bridle until the 1f marker, but couldn't quite cope with the turn of foot and pace of Ascription in the closing stages. Yet he finished the race well, came a good deal clear of the rest of the field. Nice performance, considering the slightly too short trip and with todays conditions in favour I think Gabrial The Great has every chance to run a big race.

Proud Chieftain looks a huge price but he's a much better chance than the price suggests, in my mind at least. He clearly stays ten furlongs very well, he handles fast ground, he goes well at Newmarket and his most recent performance gave me the impression that he's really well in himself and more than capable of running a big race of the current mark. He travelled very much the best that day, still on the bridle 2f out, but he was locked on the inside, with no chance to get out. He was soon after also slightly hampered, lost a bit of ground and simply had to wait and suffer. Over 1f out space opened up in front of him and he finished the race in good style, without getting fully ridden out. It's fair to say he would have finished closer with a clear run. He should give good account here today.

Nr. 18: Proud Chieftain @ 50/1 Bet365 - 1pt win 


Nr. 20: Gabrial The Great @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1pt win 




NAP: Saturday the 28th of September...

Finally a winner again! Tatting absolutely hacked up approaching the final furlong marker even on the bridle! Nice to see some confidence rewarded as the recent weeks were tough. The other selections didn't run as well as hoped. Katmai River never featured while Royal See was all the way outpaced and behind through the race, even though Jamaica Grande finished a decent 3rd and didn't get the best of runs but in all fairness the winner looked too strong anyway.


21.00 Wolverhampton: The Great Gabrial @ 9/2 Bet365 - 2pts win

The Great Gabrial was hugely progressive this year and if you ignore the Catterick form - which I happily do, as it is such an odd track - you see a horse that won two of his last three starts in addition to the strong but pretty unlucky most recent performance. That day at Wolverhampton, two weeks ago, he travelled well enough in rear but as soon as approaching the home turn he was locked and stuck in traffic, with no chance to get out. He switched to the right over 1f out eventually, quite a hard manoeuvre, and from there on it was difficult to straighten- and pick up soon enough as he was simply running out of time. He overcame these difficulties well and quickly though, and motored home, was then slightly hanging close to the finish line and finished only fifth in the end. But the way he picked up that quickly in a matter of strides was hugely impressive as well the way he travelled so well through the race. This suggests there is still more to come and he should be very competitive of the same mark tomorrow evening.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Selections: Friday 27th of September

Mappin Time was a non-runner after playing up in the stalls...


13.30 Haydock: Jamaica Grande @ 12/1 + Royal Sea @ 12/1 - 1pt win each Bet365

Wide open race and I've two horses to run from my list here and both look overpriced. Royal Sea won over course and distance here at Haydock last month when finding the way the race was run against himself actually, but he showed a lovely attitude to pull out more when put under serious pressure in the closing stages. His subsequent run at Catterick is to forgive, as he dwelt and was behind, and facing an impossible task. He confirmed his fine form at Wolverhampton lto though. He was slowly into stride again and was trailing the field for a long time, made then a big move from 5f out though, improving position on the outside of the field travelling 5-6 wide. He had to turn very wide as a result but made further headway to suddenly emerge in 2nd position approaching the home straight. He was unable to match the pace of the eventual winner then and faded badly in the closing stages as he had to pay tribute to all the energy he used up before, to finish a long way beaten in 3rd place in the end. Still a fine performance, considering the circumstances. With conditions to suit he can run well tomorrow again.

Jamaica Grande looks a different horse since stepping up in trip. He won well a handicap at Kempton over 10f, his first try over this trip. The race was poor, but the way he drew away in the closing stages looked good. His most recent start over the same course and distance was quite eye-catching to me then, suggesting a further step up in distance could bring out further improvement. Jamaica Grande travelled extremely well in rear that day, which isn't the best position over the 10f trip at Kempton due to the ultra short run-in, though. He looked suddenly outpaced once approaching the home straight but stayed on pretty well in the closing stages. He steps up to 12f for the first time now, and performances as well as pedigree (out of King George winner) suggesting that he should have no problems getting the trip. 


17.40 Wolverhampton: Katmai River @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Thought it was a very nice performance by Katmai River over course and distance last time out when he finished a fine 2nd behind impressive winner Tatting. He travelled really well for a long time and tried to kick away approaching the home straight, he soon brought some space between him and the rest of the field - bar the eventual winner. Tatting was just too good that day but Katmai River beat the rest of the field convincingly. He's on a quite long losing run of course but also down to a very low mark and tomorrows field isn't stronger compared to the rivals he encountered the last time. Also the 7lb apprentice looks capable, despite still looking for her first win, though. 


18.10 Wolverhampton: Tatting @ 9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

I really can't understand this price, expected much shorter for Tatting. Yes, his most recent run at Kempton was disappointing, but if you can forgive him that performance and judge him on his penultimate run at Wolverhampton then he should be really hard to beat, particularly as being able to race of the same mark. In the mentioned race he travelled super strongly, and despite having to go wide all the way around the home turn as the widest travelling runner, he had loads in hand to win almost on the bridle. He couldn't quite follow up on this at Kempton for whatever reason, which was an unusual run for Tatting, but now back at the venue of recent success over the same trip he should be very competitive, even more so with decent 3lb claimer Da Silva in the saddle.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Thursday the 26th of September...

This game can be brutal from time to time. We all know that, and this blog has seen this in the early parts of this year in a quite dramatic way. At the moment it's one of these spells again as it seems. Our selection Mossgo was beaten only a neck at 16/1 by the favourite yesterday. Which is frustrating. Outbid was a non-runner as well Divea.



17.15 Pontefract: Mappin Time @ 14/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Mappin Time looks extremely well handicapped on old form and while he has yet to win this year he showed a couple of nice eye-catching performances in 2013. I'm happy to ignore his most recent performance at York two month ago, which came in a big hot handicap. But if I look back to his penultimate performance at Haydock, which really caught my eye, as well as the two fine runs before that as well, I think it gets clear that Mappin Time is still well capable of winning, and with his mark dropping even further now, he looks really well handicapped. 

Actually he run really well on many occasions this season, just has been a shade unlucky. So it's not that he is really losing much of his ability due to aging. He is now down to a mark off 77 though, which is 4lb below his last winning mark and in fact it is a career lowest mark. Certainly he's a better chance than 14/1 tomorrow, even though Pontefract is a really tricky track, particularly for hold-up horses. But he has a good low draw, and might be able to get a decent position early on, and the fact that he acted on tracks like Beverly and Chester is encouraging in terms of him being able to run well at Pontefract.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Divea potentially well handicapped over extreme trip...

14.30 Lingfield: Mossgo @ 10/1 + Outbid @ 14/1 Bet365 - 1pt win each Bet365

 This is a shockingly awful race, which opens the door for the two 3yo Mossgo and Outbid, though. The filly Outbid was of interest for me quite recently already, when she ran at Kempton a pretty fine race, finishing second - followed closely behind by Mossgo - coming a good deal clear of the rest of the field. The winner was too strong and could go on to win a couple more races I think, but take her out, the field that day was probably as "strong" as tomorrow, which should give my both selections a chance tomorrow. Outbid came first to my attention on her penultimate run at Wolverhampton, which was way better than the bare form of that race suggest. She had the widest draw to overcome, what is always a negative there, yet she travelled very much the best turning for home, got then, however, badly hampered and had no chance to finish the race. Her best forms all came on the All-Weather, so it was nor surprise to see her beaten at Chepstow after that, even though she travelled nicely for a long time there as well, but didn't find much in the closing stages or simply didn't stay the extra furlong, and was eventually eased down. She won a maiden at Lingfield in good style at the beginning of the year, though, and finished a strong third less than a lengths beaten at Southwell later, so she has a bit of ability and with her low AW mark with decent recent form she can go close in this poor contest.

 Mossgo is a bit a frustrating sort. After his win at Lingfield last winter of a 9lb higher mark than the current one, he didn't show much and as a result the mark slipped down. But his latest run suggests he's turning the corner as he finished a good 3rd, less than half a lengths behind Outbid at Kempton two weeks ago. An interesting performance as he had a bit of a bumped start and was then very keen soon after, as well as short of room approaching the first turn and clipped heels as a result. Yet he travelled strongly until the 2f marker, switched then to the inside once approaching the false rail and finished well hands and heels ridden. With a repeat of that kind of performance he must go very close today. 


16.30 Lingfield: Divea @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

 Lightly raced filly Divea tackles 2 miles for the first time. She didn't show much in three maidens and two subsequent starts in handicap company on turf but responded well for the switch to the All-Weather and the step up in trip to 12f at Wolverhampton recently. She travelled really strongly in rear of the field for a long time, but got stuck in traffic when trying to make ground from 4f out around the home turn, while much in contrast the leading horses had the run of the race to kick on and fight it out. Once space opened up Divea went for it but had to turn widest of all to do so which cost ground. But once straighten up in the home straight she really motored home in good style to finish 3rd in the end. The way she stayed on is indication that she could cope well with the new trip albeit it is quite a severe step up of course. But she is lightly raced, down to a low mark, has every chance to get the trip and could potentially very well handicapped for this.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Catterick test can bring out best of Viva Ronaldo...

18.10 Catterick: Viva Ronaldo @ 6/1 Coral - 2pts win

Utterly disappointing year for Viva Ronaldo so far and as a result of that he slipped down in the mark, down to 60 now, while winning of 84 last year. There was a hint of form to see in his mist recent run at Musselburgh. He was pretty badly outpaced in rear, got then stuck in traffic in the home straight, switched widest over 1f out and stayed on well there. I feel he is very well handicapped now and judged on this run he should win a race any time soon again. Catterick is a difficult track but maybe it's this kind of test he might relish. It's a really poor race and the assistance of a 7lb claimer makes him super well weighted here. He would probably prefer a bit cut in the ground, but good ground is fine nonetheless and as Richard Fahey is in excellent form so I hope Viva Ronaldo can finally win a race again.

Master Carpenter to make the most of soft going...

16.05 Newbury: Master Carpenter @ 5/1 William Hill *BOG* - 3pts win

Master Carpenter is the highest rated horse in this field and on form the strongest contender anyway. He comes in this race after a very strong performance at Doncaster in a hot class 2 Handicap. He travelled really well that day, but got a bit stuck in traffic in a key moment of the race, when the horses in front had the chance to kick on while he had to delay his challenge. Once in the clear he took a while to hit top gear as he doesn't really look to have a decisive turn of foot, not over 7f at least, but it isn't easy for a young horse to demonstrate a sudden acceleration when it's stuck behind other horses and suddenly a gap opens. He finished the race super strongly then tough, to finish in 2nd place. I suspect he gets further and would be suited by a step up in trip to 1m but for now seven furlongs should be fine, particularly on soft ground. His sire Mastercraftsman absolutely relished these kind of conditions and as acceleration isn't really that easy on slow going this should play into Master Carpenter's hands and running style who will stay all the way to the line once he is in full swing.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Friday the 20th of September...

Good run by Baddilini today, not quite good enough to win, though. 2nd place...


14.20 Ayr: The Nifty Fox @ 18/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

The Nifty Fox doesn't appear to be too well handicapped, yet I feel he has conditions very much in favour tomorrow as well as he showed some fine performances recently. His most recent run at Hamilton in a hot sprint handicap really caught my eye as he was travelling very much the best of all, appearing to be on the bridle until 1f out. He didn't quite come home and finished 5th in the end but I do feel this was a big performance. The drop in trip back to 5f will really suit and The Nifty Fox absolutely loves cut in the ground, not to forget he's one from one over course and distance! He is drawn in 13 which should give Philli Makin every chance to go wherever he feels it is the best place to go, if the field splits into different groups. Of course this is a very strong race here tomorrow, hugely competitive and The Nifty Fox doesn't get any younger, but 18/1 looks pretty big and I expect him to run well.


Betfred Horse Racing

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Thursday the 19th of September...

17.20 Yarmouth: Baddilini @ 11/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Baddilini showed a clear return to form at the same track only two days ago, when staying on strongly over 5f. He appeared to be pretty early on outpaced, and lost ground over 3f out, stayed on strongly in the closing stages though to almost catch the eventual winner. The step up in trip to 6f tomorrow will certainly suit as Baddilini best performances came over this distance anyway. Until Tuesday he didn't show much this year, even though he ran in better races and off higher marks, after a successful year 2012, which saw him winning a class 2 Handicap and running a blinder in a listed race. He's been once rated 93 and is now able to race of 82, a career lowest mark. As stated he looked very dangerous of the same mark only two days ago on same ground conditions as expected tomorrow, and therefore with the 6f trip better to suit, in an open race, Baddilini looks overpriced.

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Wise Dan the best in the world?

Is Wise Dan the best horse in the world? Difficult question to answer of course, but on thing is for sure, he must come close to be the one. His win in the Woodbine Mile on Sunday was nothing but simply astonishing. Hardly off the bridle, easily dominating a decent field in a Grade 1 to win in track record breaking time! Sit back and enjoy:





The Eye-Catcher: Wednesday the 18th of September...

18.15 Kempton: Mawzoona @ 18/1 VC - 2pts win

Compared to many others in this field Mawzoona looks fairly exposed, but only at the first glance. In fact this is her first start over 10f tomorrow and all her other forms came over shorter. There is enough in her pedigree to suggest that the trip could suit and that she might able to improve a good bit. Interesting enough that this gets backed by her performances at the racetrack. She really caught my eye on her most recent run, here at Kempton over 7f, a trip way too sharp for her. Mawzoona is a one-paced filly, with not much speed and that was obvious in this race when she travelled well enough but was simply killed for speed when the race really unfolded after turning for home. She got badly outpaced, lost ground but interestingly stayed on well to finish 3rd in the end.

This was the first good performance in Handicap company for her, after she got allocated a pretty stiff mark in first hand as a result of a gutsy performance in her third maiden start, when she attempted to make all, got under pressure around 2f out, was eventually headed and overtaken, but came back with a strong challenge in the dying stages of the race to finish 2nd only a shoulder beaten. This was over 1m and the performance was a strong hint that even that kind of trip is too short and that she needs further. So all in all, down to a mark of 62, with likely improvement over the new trip, she must have a better chance of winning than the price suggest. 


Betfred Horse Racing

Sunday, September 15, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Monday the 16th of September...

14.30 Wolverhampton: Olivers Mount @ 16/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Olivers Mount produced a way better performance than the bare result would suggest last time out at Kempton and on that evidence he's certainly overpriced in my mind. He missed slightly the break, travelled then well enough in rear, while the pace of the race was pretty slow though and in fact the first five home, bar one exception, were all positioned close to the pace. Olivers Mount turned home well off the pace though, had to switch wide then in order to get a clear run and motored home in good style once straighten up. He was only one of very few horses from off the pace who have been able to make some kind of impression in the closing stages. He might get further than 1m according to his pedigree, so the extended mile at Wolverhampton tomorrow should be in his favour I suppose. He's also still lightly raced, down to a super low mark and has the assistance of a 5lb claimer. I think he can go well tomorrow for a big price.

Edit: Non-Runner.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Big Race Preview: English St Leger

15.50 Doncaster: Ladbrokes St Leger 2013

It looks an exciting and very competitive St Leger this year and you can make a case for many of the eleven runners. The betting market demonstrates this quite well, with the favourite being a 5/1 chance in general! Much in contrast to many I don't really fancy Galileo Rock today, though. I would have loved to see him at the Curragh, in the Irish equivalent tomorrow. I think the ground is not exactly what he wants today, despite the fact that it isn't as soft as feared. Yet I have the feeling he could be a horse that is knocking always on the door, running consistently well all the time, but find it hard to get the head in front when it matters. I really like the chances of the lightly raced Gosden horse Excess Knowledge, though, who was so unlucky at Goodwood and who should have so much more to give, with further improvement likely to come over the new trip. However I feel the improvement is already reflected in the price and therefore it's only a fair one, but not tempting for me. It's a bit the same story with Leading Light, who has excellent credentials to win the race, with no doubts over the ability to stay the trip, as well as having good, solid Group 3 form in the form book. He'll go very close if he can raise his game as he's yet to contest such a quality field. I'm not really fond on Foundry, who isn't sure to stay the trip and will find this tough on only the third career start, while Talent is a horse I find it difficult to get a grip on. If she bounces back after the dismal run at the Curragh she is in with a chance but the current price isn't tempting to find this out with my own money.

That brings me to Libertarian. When I made my tissue and compared to the offered prices this morning I couldn't really believe what I saw. Libertarian is a 15/2 chance at the moment, which looks really big in my mind - if you can forgive him the poor effort in the Irish Derby. But there might be valid excuses for it, as it was the third hard race against top class opposition in five weeks. Maybe just too much. Libertarian looked like a real stayer when winning the Dante Stakes in May, when he beat subsequent Irish Derby winner Trading Leather in good style. The step up to the Derby trip was clearly in his favour then, but even then he got outpaced around 4f out and it took him a while to get going. But when he got going, he was absolutely flying, finishing the best of all and came from an impossible position to finish 2nd on the line! It is clear that he needs further and that is what he gets today. If he has recovered well, is fresh and fit and doesn't get in trouble in-running then I find it very hard to look beyond him. Libertarian has the right profile to win the Leger, he has the form in the book, and he is a price too good to let go.

A second runner I feel is pretty overpriced is the Fallon mount Great Hall. Sure he has a lot to find on the ratings but he has every chance to stay the trip on pedigree and even more so he looks a real stayer the way he's usually finishing off his races. Always galloping to the line, finishing full of running and he looked to have a bit of class when winning at Haydock over 14f a class 2 Handicap in July. He is a tricky ride no doubt, still a bit green and was badly hanging in his last two starts, but he should have learned plenty in the meantime and I can see him really relishing the Leger trip. If he is good enough is another question, but he is lightly raced, entitled to improvement and can therefore be in the mix. The offered 28/1 look huge in my mind and on paper he has a better chance of winning.

Liberterian @ 15/2 Bet365 - 2pts win


Great Hall @ 28/1 StanJames - 0.5pts win




Friday, September 13, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Saturday the 14th of September...

17.30 Kempton: Outbid @ 18/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 On pure form this horse looks to have no chance but I thought her penultimate run at Wolverhampton was way better than the bare form of that race suggest. She had the widest draw to overcome, what is alway a negative there, yet she travelled very much the best turning for home, got then, however, badly hampered and had no chance to finish the race. Her best forms all came on the All-Weather, so it was nor surprise to see her beaten at Chepstow lto, even though she travelled nicely for a long time there as well, but didn't find much in the closing stages or simply didn't stay the extra furlong, and was eventually eased down. She won a maiden at Lingfield in good style at the beginning of the year, though, and finished a strong third less than a lengths beaten at Southwell later, so she has a bit of ability and with her AW mark slipping down a couple of pounds she might be able to take advantage of that tomorrow.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Nap of the day - Friday 13th of September!

17.30 Wolverhampton: Poste Restante @ 9/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Plenty to like about this filly on handicap debut stepping up in trip to 12f for the first time. Poste Restante showed a bit of promise in her second career start at Lingfield, when she missed the break and was pretty early pretty badly outpaced. But it was eye-catching the way she stayed on in the closing stages, suggesting she definitely needs further. This is backed very much so by her pedigree, as there is plenty of stamina both on sire- as well as on dam side. So only for that reason she's very interesting as she should absolutely relish the new trip. Her opening mark looks high enough for what she showed so far on the other hand. But the Simcock yard is bang in form and why would they step up the horse on handicap debut to a trip that looks an excellent fit, if not having the hand break off? In addition to this the young 7lb claimer looks decent, rode a winner for Simcock at Kempton on Tuesday. Having all this in mind it looks to me as if Poste Restante is pretty good value at 9/1 in an otherwise horrible Apprentice Handicap.


Betfred Horse Racing

3 lessons we've learned on Irish Champion Stakes Day...

My Titania - Like father, like daughter: The Sea The Stars filly My Titania was a huge eye-catcher on her debut run, without winning, though. So it was no surprise to see her being backed into the short 6/4 second favourite before the off of the opening race of Leopardstown's Irish Champion Stakes card. She justified all the money, travelling always prominent throughout and put the race easily to bed, quickening in good style approaching the home straight to win comfortably. Another Sea The Stars filly, Afternoon Sunlight, finished runner-up and could be also a rather promising sort. 

My Titania boosts a nice pedigree, being a daughter of the mighty Sea The Stars of course. There looks to be a good deal of speed on the dam side, as she is out of 7f Listed race winner Fairy Of The Night, who herself is by top-class sprinter Danehill. But - and this is a similarity to My Titania's father Sea The Stars, who had doubts about his staying ability to overcome as well. She might be well able to get 10 furlongs plus in time, as her father being a Derby and Arc winner, the dam's sire has been producing a Derby winner as well, despite his race record would suggest otherwise, and the dam's dam has been a winner over 13f. So that relativise what looked obvious at the first glance. My Titania could be a decent Guineas filly of course, but might be even better over further. Time will tell. She looks an exciting prospect anyway.


Australia is the best ever: Aiden O'Brien was quite bullish in the aftermath of Australia's impressive success in the Group 3 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Trial Stakes. The Son of Galileo beat 2/5 favourite and early Derby ante-post favourite Free Eagle easily by six lengths. He followed up two excellent performances in maidens before at the Curragh. This performance catapulted Australia to the top top of the Derby ante-post market, being a 6/1 chance for the classic next year. O'Brien after the race on Saturday: "Everyone probably knows we always thought he was the best horse we've ever had."

Australia is bred to be a superstar. He is by super-stallion Galileo and out of Cape Cross mare Ouija Board, who was a seven times Group 1 winner herself! He'll be much better over further than the 1m on Saturday, that is for sure and it'll be interesting to see where he pops up next. O'Brien will keep the colt at the mile trip this year I would assume, but will step him up gradually in trip next year. One word in regards of runner-up Free Eagle: It probably is way too early to give up on him. He looks still an exciting prospect. Sure, he didn't quite followed up the hype after his impressive maiden, but he didn't get a hard race and should have still a good deal of improvement left in him, particularly when stepping up in trip.


La Colina is back to her best: It was an emotional Matron Stakes success for La Colina. The four year old filly was never able to match her massive juvenile form, when she beat Ballydoyle's Power in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh - until last Saturday. She travelled well, got out in the clear right on time to produce a nice little turn of foot to win in good style in the end. This wasn't only her first Group success since Phoenix Stakes day - no - it was also her first ever win since then! This is more than two years ago, therefore no one really gave her a chance in the Matron Stakes. La Colina was tried over shorter than a mile and further, ran a couple of nice races, without ever coming close to win, though. So one could say this is a bit of a fairytale. Veteran trainer Kevin Prendergast gets a winner at the highest level, and talented jockey Chris Hayes finally won his first ever Group 1. Respectively he's been quite emotional after the race, with tears of joy running over his face. 

The question is now of course: Can La Colina repeat this success, is she really back to her best? She is always been a talented filly, and she always looked like a superstar in the parade ring. She's beaten some nice fillies on Saturday and there is no reason to think that this isn't a true form. It was a fair race, ran on a pretty strong pace - which might be key to La Colina's success. Wherever she pops up next, if it is a true run race, she'll be certainly in the mix.


Betfred Horse Racing

Nap of the Day...

14.10 Doncaster: Maureen @ 2/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Richard Hannon's filly looks like one of the most frustrating/unlucky horses of the whole year. She ran extremely well on many occasions this year, while contesting in top class races. Maureen usually travels really well through the races, and did stay on in eye-catching fashion, coming mostly from off the pace. Yet I think the drop in trip to 7f won't be a problem today. Much the difference actually, it probably is the completely right decision and could turn out to be her optimum trip.

Maureen - impressive  Group 3 winner at Newbury in April
Maureen started this season with a strong performance in a Group 3 over seven furlongs at Newbury, producing a nice turn of foot. She looked smart that day and went on to the 1.000 Guineas at Newmarket. That day she was one of the unlucky horses in the race, not getting a clear run, but staying on in good style. She was out of luck in the Irish equivalent as well though, as she got stuck in traffic and hampered about 2f out. Not too many excuses for her in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot then. She travelled really well for a long time, was in a good position, even though slightly short of room over 2f out, but in the end rather fair and square beaten in 4th, giving the impression a drop in trip could help her. It followed another creditable effort in the Prix Rotschild at Deauville, where she was held-up and had a difficult trip in the closing stages, while travelling well again. Since then she got a little break, and drops now down to Group 3 class for the first time after contesting in five consecutive Group 1's.

It looks a good field in todays Sceptre Stakes. A couple of nice fillies in the line-up, which makes it a competitive race. But it is Maureen who makes most appeal with her form standing out. She'll find this here today much easier, the drop in trip should suit, the ground is perfectly fine as she won on good to soft a Group 3 earlier this year as well as the track should suit her running style. If she gets finally a clear run she should be very hard to beat.


Betfred Horse Racing

Saturday, September 7, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Saturday the 7th of September...

17.20 Kempton: The Tichborne @ 11/1 Coral - 2pts win

The Tichborne looks a very price considering his excellent recent form but in particular his excellent recent run here at Kempton. Over 6f, which might be a bit too short actually - I feel 7f is probably his best trip - he travelled nicely on the inside rail, which was kind of fatal, though, as he was locked there once turning for home, and had to wait until a gap opened, which happened just under 2f out, when he angled out. Once in the clear and straighten up again, he really powered home and almost caught the leading trio, while he was the only one really staying on from behind as three of the first four have been running prominently. I rate this a very big performance and he clearly thrives on the All-Weather. The fact that he won once off a mark of 83 on the AW suggests that he a mark of 78 is certainly not beyond him and this last performance backs this in my mind.