15.50 Doncaster: Ladbrokes St Leger 2013
It looks an exciting and very competitive St Leger this year and you can make a case for many of the eleven runners. The betting market demonstrates this quite well, with the favourite being a 5/1 chance in general! Much in contrast to many I don't really fancy Galileo Rock today, though. I would have loved to see him at the Curragh, in the Irish equivalent tomorrow. I think the ground is not exactly what he wants today, despite the fact that it isn't as soft as feared. Yet I have the feeling he could be a horse that is knocking always on the door, running consistently well all the time, but find it hard to get the head in front when it matters. I really like the chances of the lightly raced Gosden horse Excess Knowledge, though, who was so unlucky at Goodwood and who should have so much more to give, with further improvement likely to come over the new trip. However I feel the improvement is already reflected in the price and therefore it's only a fair one, but not tempting for me. It's a bit the same story with Leading Light, who has excellent credentials to win the race, with no doubts over the ability to stay the trip, as well as having good, solid Group 3 form in the form book. He'll go very close if he can raise his game as he's yet to contest such a quality field. I'm not really fond on Foundry, who isn't sure to stay the trip and will find this tough on only the third career start, while Talent is a horse I find it difficult to get a grip on. If she bounces back after the dismal run at the Curragh she is in with a chance but the current price isn't tempting to find this out with my own money.
That brings me to Libertarian. When I made my tissue and compared to the offered prices this morning I couldn't really believe what I saw. Libertarian is a 15/2 chance at the moment, which looks really big in my mind - if you can forgive him the poor effort in the Irish Derby. But there might be valid excuses for it, as it was the third hard race against top class opposition in five weeks. Maybe just too much. Libertarian looked like a real stayer when winning the Dante Stakes in May, when he beat subsequent Irish Derby winner Trading Leather in good style. The step up to the Derby trip was clearly in his favour then, but even then he got outpaced around 4f out and it took him a while to get going. But when he got going, he was absolutely flying, finishing the best of all and came from an impossible position to finish 2nd on the line! It is clear that he needs further and that is what he gets today. If he has recovered well, is fresh and fit and doesn't get in trouble in-running then I find it very hard to look beyond him. Libertarian has the right profile to win the Leger, he has the form in the book, and he is a price too good to let go.
A second runner I feel is pretty overpriced is the Fallon mount Great Hall. Sure he has a lot to find on the ratings but he has every chance to stay the trip on pedigree and even more so he looks a real stayer the way he's usually finishing off his races. Always galloping to the line, finishing full of running and he looked to have a bit of class when winning at Haydock over 14f a class 2 Handicap in July. He is a tricky ride no doubt, still a bit green and was badly hanging in his last two starts, but he should have learned plenty in the meantime and I can see him really relishing the Leger trip. If he is good enough is another question, but he is lightly raced, entitled to improvement and can therefore be in the mix. The offered 28/1 look huge in my mind and on paper he has a better chance of winning.
It looks an exciting and very competitive St Leger this year and you can make a case for many of the eleven runners. The betting market demonstrates this quite well, with the favourite being a 5/1 chance in general! Much in contrast to many I don't really fancy Galileo Rock today, though. I would have loved to see him at the Curragh, in the Irish equivalent tomorrow. I think the ground is not exactly what he wants today, despite the fact that it isn't as soft as feared. Yet I have the feeling he could be a horse that is knocking always on the door, running consistently well all the time, but find it hard to get the head in front when it matters. I really like the chances of the lightly raced Gosden horse Excess Knowledge, though, who was so unlucky at Goodwood and who should have so much more to give, with further improvement likely to come over the new trip. However I feel the improvement is already reflected in the price and therefore it's only a fair one, but not tempting for me. It's a bit the same story with Leading Light, who has excellent credentials to win the race, with no doubts over the ability to stay the trip, as well as having good, solid Group 3 form in the form book. He'll go very close if he can raise his game as he's yet to contest such a quality field. I'm not really fond on Foundry, who isn't sure to stay the trip and will find this tough on only the third career start, while Talent is a horse I find it difficult to get a grip on. If she bounces back after the dismal run at the Curragh she is in with a chance but the current price isn't tempting to find this out with my own money.
That brings me to Libertarian. When I made my tissue and compared to the offered prices this morning I couldn't really believe what I saw. Libertarian is a 15/2 chance at the moment, which looks really big in my mind - if you can forgive him the poor effort in the Irish Derby. But there might be valid excuses for it, as it was the third hard race against top class opposition in five weeks. Maybe just too much. Libertarian looked like a real stayer when winning the Dante Stakes in May, when he beat subsequent Irish Derby winner Trading Leather in good style. The step up to the Derby trip was clearly in his favour then, but even then he got outpaced around 4f out and it took him a while to get going. But when he got going, he was absolutely flying, finishing the best of all and came from an impossible position to finish 2nd on the line! It is clear that he needs further and that is what he gets today. If he has recovered well, is fresh and fit and doesn't get in trouble in-running then I find it very hard to look beyond him. Libertarian has the right profile to win the Leger, he has the form in the book, and he is a price too good to let go.
A second runner I feel is pretty overpriced is the Fallon mount Great Hall. Sure he has a lot to find on the ratings but he has every chance to stay the trip on pedigree and even more so he looks a real stayer the way he's usually finishing off his races. Always galloping to the line, finishing full of running and he looked to have a bit of class when winning at Haydock over 14f a class 2 Handicap in July. He is a tricky ride no doubt, still a bit green and was badly hanging in his last two starts, but he should have learned plenty in the meantime and I can see him really relishing the Leger trip. If he is good enough is another question, but he is lightly raced, entitled to improvement and can therefore be in the mix. The offered 28/1 look huge in my mind and on paper he has a better chance of winning.
Liberterian @ 15/2 Bet365 - 2pts win
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