19.40 Wolverhampton (Class 2 Handicap) - If Solar Deity is fully fit after his 202 days long break, he has a big chance, but I feel with the mark and big weight to shoulder, he is vulnerable if not at his brilliant best tomorrow. Favourite Maverick Wave makes plenty of appeal though. He is lovely bred, with a nice US pedigree and has strong form to his name, most recently on British Champions Day in a big Handicap where he finished a strong runner-up. He won on the All-Weather earlier this year and in fact the surface should be no problem at all. His mark looks more than fair as he could be easily the class act in this field, given that he has a weight advantage, all seems set up nicely for a win. Only slight concern is the trip. Not impossible that he gets the 9,5f, but something we have to find out tomorrow on the track. I still regard his price as too big given all the other facts mentioned.
Small saver Earth Drummer. He tries the trip for the first time as well, but on pedigree there is no reason why he shouldn't get - and in fact - shouldn't improve for it. By Irish Derby winner Dylan Thomas out of a Giant's Causeway mare who's sire is dual Derby winner Generous. ED tried the AW quite recently for the first time, finished 3rd in a hot 7f race while having to overcome a wide draw and certainly didn't get the run of the race either. He stayed on nicely in the end. He should go close too and is overpriced imo.
Maverick Wave @ 5/2 Bet365 - 10pts win
Earth Drummer @ 11/2 Bet365 - 5pts win
15.20 Meydan: Alraased @ 28/1 VC - 1pt win + Filfil @ 9/1 VC - 1pt win
Meydan opens its doors for the first time for their new season - a special one, as they laid out a new Dirt surface, which is replacing the Tapeta surface, which was in place the last couple of years. We will see how that goes. Personally I'm not the biggest fan of this surface, but I'm open minded to give it a fair chance. Anyway, I'm going to have a small punt on Alraased in the second race at Meydan today. Not sure what to get from him today but he looks pretty well handicapped on old form, being allowed to race off 75, while he won off 84 at Kempton a while ago. 2013 was a wasted year and he hasn't been seen for well over year until returning at Jebel Ali last month. Well beaten that day, but up in trip to 7f looks the right trip today and a four pound lower mark should give him a chance if he can regain some of his old best. Dirt is an interesting surface for him, with his US pedigree, it could work well. Otherwise nothing too obvious in this race in my mind anyway, even though Filfil makes also some appeal to me for a bigger price, given the fact that off 87 in February this year at Meydan, and is down to 80 now. He has a fine Dirt pedigree and may go well as a fresh horse today, the trip isn't an issue.
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