15.45 Newmarket: Mawatheeq Godolphin Stakes (Listed) - Flying The Flag: Second start for new connections, classy bred and good comeback run. Step up to 12f question mark, has to prove stamina.
Harris Tweed: Disappointing all three starts this year, usually best on soft, so drying ground another worry. Hard to fancy on current form.
Magic Hurricane: Improving handicapper, not too much mileage on the clock. Not so good last two times but step up to 12f should help. Best form on soft ground, remains to be seen if rather quick ground does suit: Needs to take another step forward to feature.
Nabucco: Cosistent and ran well this year in Listed races over 10f. Best form over 10f with cut in the ground, trip is a question mark and not entirely likely to suit on pedigree, yet if it could bring out further improvement, in with a chance.
Penglai Pavilion: Progressive 3yo in France, Listed winner over 12f on heavy ground. Didn’t fire at Meydan and poor in two starts in the UK this year. If back to best, obvious chance, but hard to fancy on recent form.
Ayrad: Lightly raced and good 2nd at Epsom recently. Nicely bred and step up in trip interesting as looks possible on pedigree and could bring out the bit improvement to see him up to winning on this level. Drying ground slight concern.
Red Galileo: Return to form with close recent runner-up effort in a Conditions race at Doncaster. Found out for class in pattern class before, but fifth in Derby behind Australia good form potentially. Back up in trip which should very much suit.
Windshear: Sets the standard on form. Strong 4th in Leger, four times runner-up in Group class and hot Handicaps before. However seems to find it hard to win.
Verdict: The outcome of this race should evolve around the three year old horses in this field. Their older rivals have major question marks to defy in most cases, and that gives the classic generation a big chance with the WFO allowance. Favourite Windshear sets the clear standard with his strong performances on Group level and his recent fourth in the St Leger. It’s a massive drop in Grade. However may he forgot how to win? That’s a worry and he’s to take on at short odds. The other two three year old contenders make allot appeal as big priced alternatives. Ayrad has yet to show that he is a pattern class horse, but he is very lightly raced and his recent return to form is encouraging and the step up in trip may suit him to improve the bit to be a very big runner today. Red Galileo was a creditable fifth in this years Derby and looked much improved in his most recent outing. Up in trip again should really suit and he’s my first choice to land the spoils today.
Red Galileo @ 7/1 Bet365 – 2pts win
Ayrad @ 12/1 Bet365 – 1pt win
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