It's the return of California Chrome today. He came close to become the first Triple Crown winner in ages, but he failed at the final hurdle at Belmont, as we all know now. Things didn't go to plan from there on. Injury problems made life tough. But he is back now for an ambitious autumn campaign, which will culminate in a bid for glory in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Today his first run on his way to Santa Anita - the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby seems an ideal opportunity. But it won't be quite as easy. There are some serious rivals in the line-up. And there is the very valid question about Chrome's fitness. How well is he? Can he find back to his brilliant best after the injury worries? Might this trip be a bit sharp for him on his return against some seasoned and in-form horses? We all know how classy Chrome is, what serious performances he put in earlier this year. But this all counts for little today, when he has clearly some questions to answer. On the other hand, it is absolutely brilliant to see him back running. He is a racing celebrity and it's credit to him, his charisma and his enormous talent that the world is watching Parx today.
California Chrome: Class act, won over this trip, Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner. Didn’t stay Belmont trip, injured afterwards, back after break now.
Candy Boy: Runner-up in West Virginia Derby lto. Decent performer on Grade level, without finding winning easy. Well beaten by Clifronia Chrome twice this year.
Protonico: Lightly raced Giant’s Causeway son. Constantly improving, won Grade 3 at this track lto, tries this trip for the second time in his career, finished 3rd on sole start but on pedigree no problem.
Bayern: Haskell winner when he got an easy lead. Impressive that day but couldn't follow up and when challenged for lead he is doing usually too much. Might not have his own way up on front here.
Noble Moon: Lightly raced, still improvement left and not completely out of it. Has stamina to prove.
Classic Giacnroll: Consistent decent performances this year, without winning. Went super close lto when runner-up to Protonico. Hasn’t fired over this trip yet but should be fine on pedigree.
Tapiture: Won West Virginia Derby lto, staying on strongly. Tough and consistent sort, in with an obvious chance on form.
C J’s Awesome: Front-runner, will challenge for lead and will force pace. Not up to this class.
Verdict: If California Chrome is 100% fit, well then he’ll be hard to beat. It's that simple. I can see him getting the perfect race, nicely set up by the likely front-runners Bayern and CJA - as they are likely to be racing for the lead. Chrome can sit behind and make his usual move coming off the home bend. What does he find then is the question?! I believe his target is the Breeders Cup Classic, so his trainer will have left something to work on – mind you this is only a Grade 2 today. There is a general question mark over his fitness after a long season and recent injury problems. Therefore I think we can take him on, considering he is such a short price.
I do really like the look of the lightly raced Protonico. Improving all the time, won at Graded level for the first time lto when scoring in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes over 1m. That day he didn’t have an easy race, finding himself short of room on his way around the home at a crucial stage, and again when approaching the home straight. He shouldn't have had a chance to catch the leader at this point, he should have been finished. but somehow he got out into the clear and ran down the eventual runner-up, who looked moments before like a 1.01 shot on the in-running market on Betfair! He is clearly a seriously talented horse and while he tried today's trip only once before, in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, when beaten in a photo by two horses that came from off the pace, he shouldn't have a problem with the trip at all, as on pedigree he’ll get it alright. With more improvement to come, Protonico is capable of running a huge race for a big price.
An even bigger price long shot is Classic Giacnroll. He doesn't look too likely to get his head in front against some top class opposition here. But it shouldn't be forgotten that he didn’t always got the best of runs in the past and his most recent performance, the runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Protonico is noteworthy. A repeat would see him going close in my mind. That day he produced a lovely change of gear when slipping through on the inside approaching the home straight, while coming from almost last to look the winner until 50y out. He was probably a bit idling and didn't see the eventual winner coming. He tries the 9f trip again today, hasn't done too well over it in the past on pure form, but he should get it on pedigree and might be the one staying one from behind for an upset, as the likely quick pace should give a horse from off the pace a chance.
Protonico @ 12/1 – 1pt win Bet365
Classic Giacnroll @ 33/1 1pt win Bet365
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