The Eye-Catcher - Wednesday 1st October 2014

17.45 Kempton: First Rebellion @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win

First Rebellion is one of the horses highlighted in our new Eye-Catchers column. He is quite an interesting horse in this poor class 7 Handicap tomorrow - for plenty of reasons. He drops another 2lb since his most recent impressive run, has a good draw for his front-running tactics and I can't see too much competition for the lead. Should be straightforward and Kempton's 5f track favours horses up with the speed. His profile as per our Eye-Catchers list:

"First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably."

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Modernism, our Tuesday selection, ran a perfect race and finished very creditable runner-up, only beaten by handicap debutante and feather weight Dream Child.  

PREVIEW: Race Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September

18.20 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f

Mubtadi: Returned recently after a break at this venue, travelled well enough but tired badly in the home straight. Badly needed the run. Another month long break now is a worry. Travelled like the winner in March over course and distance when back from almost a year long break, just beaten by horse in front that pulled out more. Loves the All-Weather, and on that form chance with 5lb claimer, if back to best.

Off The Pulse: Progressive this summer since getting off the mark over course and distance off 3lb lower back in December. Won class 3 handicap at Haydock, followed up with strong runner-up performance at Ayr. Chance to progress further and on fair mark.

God's Speed: Won maiden over CD by ten lengths back in February, but beat donkeys that day. Since then racing of high marks usually in hot company. Best performance over CD ten days ago in better class, travelling wide and good move from 4f out but tired worryingly inside final furlong. May need more assistance from handicapper but down in grade and in smaller field might help to see him competitive.

Modernism: Slipping down in the mark and can race off 5lb below his last winning mark (over CD, and looked good for more that day). Clear return to form in competitive 12f handicap at Kempton last week, staying on well from off the pace where it favoured horses up with the speed due to a pedestrian pace. Drops down to favoured 9f trip after being campaigned over further throughout the year. Should be very competitive. 

Mazaaher: Clearly going strongly on the All-Weather. Won in August over CD off 4lb lower showing guts and determination and followed up with strong performance when only narrowly denied. Disappointing on turf subsequently, but back on the AW will help and must be an obvious contender with further improvement not unlikely. 

Dutch Rifle: Didn't stay 11f last time out, but is two from two over course and distance. Still lightly raced and as 3yo obvious chance with WFO allowance. If quite good enough against hot opposition remains to be seen as hasn't fired on this kind of level yet.

Dream Child: Contested in good maidens on the All-Weather and placed in all three of them, while beaten there by some good individuals. Didn't seem to stay 10f in all those starts. Handicap debut now and slight drop in trip will surly help as he's bred for much shorter. Mark looks fair and prominent racing style could be advantage if not too much pace is on.

Verdict: An extremely competitive and deep contest. Any of the seven horses has a fair chance to get the head in front. Pace should be on with Dream Child, God's Speed and Dutch Rifle - they are all likely to have the desire to be up with the speed. Godolphin's Dream Child seems a rather short favourite considering how competitive this race is, even though he makes plenty of appeal from a pure weight perspective, receiving weight all around. He didn't look to stay 10f in three starts though, and the drop in trip to nine furlongs might not be enough for him. He's bred for shorter. Off The Pulse is a solid contender, has a fine CD record and if he's fit after a break, he should be thereabouts. He doesn't strike as a particularly well handicapped individual, though. Mazaaher won well over CD not too long ago. He can progress further, has to put a poor recent showing behind however. The remaining three year old contenders Dutch Rifle and God's Speed may be well capable of further improvement, but that says that they have enough to do from their current marks. Mubtadi is to a certain extend a key horse. If he could find back to his best, he'll be a very dangerous contender. He has been fading quite badly when seen the last time, and perception is that he may struggle yet again here. Leaves us with Modernism. He has plenty going for him in the right direction. The drop in trip back to his optimum should be a big help, so should be the fact that he is well handicapped on old form, and his recent strong Kempton run suggests, that he is hitting a bit of form and is the one they all have to beat. 

Modernism @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 3pts win

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Winner: Mondays race of the day turned out to be the cracker, we hoped it would be in advance, There was loads of early speed on, we got an exciting and tight finish ANDR the right result from a betting perspective. Favourite Red Lady lead the field as expected and travelled smoothly indeed. However the handicapper seems to have finally caught her, as she wasn't quite able to sustain her powerful effort for as long as it was required this time. The strong travelling Royal Birth went past her in the dying strides and was well on top crossing the line eventually, winning it by ¾ of a lengths. Oisin Murphy gave the Exceed and Excel a peach of a ride  - btw. this was the first Bath winner ever for the young Irish jockey - and the lightly raced colt seems well able to progress even further. Good for us: In the betting he wasn't really fancied and an SP of 8/1 is a welcome bonus.

Eye-Catchers - With an eye on the future

A new (well in fact a rather old column, if you still know the old blog) on Horseracing-International.com: Providing a regular list of horses that caught my eye for numerous occasions. Bringing up this column again because the All-Weather season is due to kick off and that provides usually very good opportunities, as the same horses do race oftrn again and over the winter, so you get to know them well, and of course it is a feasible amount of racing to watch - as that is the most important part of the exercise - which makes things easier. I expect this to be successful, as it used to be in the past, particularly in the last winter, when the eye-catchers did an excellent job for the blog.

Al, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Maiden: Interesting debut run for this Haling son. He got hampered right after the start but settled okay soon after towards the end of the field. He seemed to be slightly outpaced coming around the home bend and needed a bit encouraging by the jockey on board to keep on travelling, but in the it wasn't more than a light hands and heels ride and Al stayed on well to finish a fine 3rd over a trip which should be well short of what she requires. The winner of this race should go on to do well too, but for Al the future might lie in Handicaps. She has plenty of stamina left and right of her pedigree and will improve once stepping up in trip.I suspect that she will have two more maiden starts over 6f before she goes handicapping over a new trip and a potentially lenient mark.

State Of Union, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Nursery: Nursery debut that night and had to overcome the widest draw in the race. He marched to the front straight from there, while looking extremely keen and he must have used allot of energy in those early parts of the race. Yet he travelled strongly and kicked clear in the home straight. He got a bit tired in the end but brought it home. He has the pedigree of progressive 2yo sprinter and his revised mark (78) is potentially still underestimating his class. If he can settle better and has a better draw the next time, he can win again.

Yodelling, 2yo filly - Kempton 5th September, 7f Conditions Stakes: The filly couldn't have been more impressive on her racecourse debut. She appeared to be a bit green turning for home, but appeared back on the bridle and looming strongly from 2f out. In the end she won easily and emerges as a very exciting prospect. Extremely well bred, she has a good deal of stamina on her dam side, and her profile is pointing towards middle distance. She looks a very nice big, scopy filly and should improve as a 3yo. She has some potential and might even be a filly that we will see in Dubai later on.

First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably. 

Bosstime, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 9f Handicap: Only his second start since coming over from Ireland. Sluggish start and had to use an awful lot of energy to get up to the front after the start. Travelled best of all their turning for home when making move from 3f out. Didn't quite see out the trip. Best performances came over 1m in Irland in competitive maidens and Handicaps when he finished runner-up three times. Expect him to drop further in the mark and down to a mile, should see him able to win a race. Blinkers would also be interesting. 

Maggie Pink, 5yo mare - Kempton 25th September, 1m Handicap: Prolific front-runner but had a tough task in her latest start. Back after a summer break as top weight in a hot handicap, of a career highest mark over a trip that stretches her stamina. It was never her day. She did well for that, set a quick pace and led the field by a couple of lengths approaching the home straight. As expected she tired badly in the closing stages. Once she gets a bit of leniency from the handicapper and drops doen to her optimum 7f, she'll be well able to win another race or even races as her last performances before the break clearly indicating that she is still improving. 

Steal The Scene, 2yo colt - Kempton 25th September, 6f Nursery: Lightly raced, fast improving colt. Won Windsor maiden in tacking style and was mightily impressive here at Kempton. He was caught up behind a wall of horses and had nowhere to go from 3f out. His jockey take a big pull and dropped him subsequently out to last, in order to switch from the inside rails to the widest outside. The colt found his stride very quickly again and thundered home strongly. Only a resonably talented horse is capable of doing such a move as smoothly as he did. He appears to be well handicapped and it is unlikely that the handicapper will put him up for this. 

Wentworth Falls, 2yo gelding - Wolverhampton 11th September, 7f Maiden: Seems a tricky customer but has talent. Jumped quickly and led field, setting a quick pace. A strong galloper he is, he had the whole field off the bridle turning for home with a healthy advantage. When things seemed settled, his jockey gave him an additional crack with the whip to keep him focused entering the final furlong. Suddenly the gelding started to hang towards the rail badly, probably running away from the whip which cost vital momentum and a staying on rival fought him down eventually. He'll go handicapping next probably, and depending on the opening mark, could be underestimated. He is still green but will learn and as a  Full brother to smart miler Strawberrydaiquiri, has certainly the right pedigree.

Steeldriver, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 27th September, 7f Handicap: This horse is going to win next time - if the handicapper isn't too hard on him. Reasons are obvious. After missing the break, he used loads of energy to go around whole field making up for the lost ground. While he was travelling always wide, he started big move from 4f out and turned for home as leader thanks to some impressive acceleration. He seemed to put the race to bed in a matter of strides and certainly looked the clear winner entering the final furlong. His jockey felt probably the same way and turned around one numerous occasions to see where his rivals are. He did this one time too often approaching the half furlong marker. Losing concentration on keeping the horses for a split second, allowed the gelding to drift towards the rail and through that losing momentum - which in turn cost the race as a rival cam thundering down from behind getting up on the line. Steeldriver was down to a career lowest mark and is clearly better than that, particularly over the 7f trip, which seems his optimum. Even if the handicapper puts him up two or three pounds, he should be well in. 

Race of the day - Monday 29th September

15.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Al Senad: Won 5f maiden at Beverly in tremendous style. Disappointing that he couldn't follow up in two subsequent starts. Drops 5lb in mark, and that might make him competitive again. Track could suit.

Red Lady: Two from two over course and distance. Much improved since having hood this season, progressive and might not be the end for her. With apprentice allowance gone this time, she is effectively 6lb higher for her recent narrow win. 

The Dandy Yank: Competitive and progressive earlier this summer. Won Kempton claimer recently, but subsequently disappointing in Wolverhampton handicap. High enough mark.

Royal Birth: Runaway maiden winner at Wolverhampton. Couldn't follow up subsequently in two strong handicaps (strong form). Slipping mark can help to become competitive again and this looks easier on paper. Still lightly raced and back after break.

Threetimesalady: Drops in trip which needs to bring out improvement as otherwise looks on high enough mark. Hasn't shown any sparkle this season.

Shilla: Has course form and went close over 6f earlier this summer. Minimum trip seems too short and doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Was a good deal beaten in a similar race a fortnight ago.

Gulland Rock: Ran well over minimum trip earlier this year when he won at Catterick and followed with three runner-up efforts subsequently. Not completely out of this but need to show improvement. 

Verdict: Close contest on paper and hard to fancy anyone with confidence. Red Lady loves it here but has a new career highest mark to defy and won only by the tightest of margins while having the run of the race. She might get company up on front this time. Al Senad would be interesting if he could find back to his strong Beverly run, but on balance he looks still high enough in the mark. Most interesting is Royal Birth for a pretty big looking price. He looked extremely good when blitzing his rivals in a Wolverhampton maiden this winter, couldn't quite follow up in the summer in hot handicaps, but is subsequently down in the mark and this here is a tick easier. He remains of interest and could be better than the current rating. 

Royal Birth @ 7/1 Bet365 – 3pts win

PREVIEW: Land Rover Nursery (Class 4)

15.20 Ripon: Land Rover Nursery (Class 4)

Bizarrio: Won maiden at Chester over 7f from front. Found out for class on handicap debut subsequently. Should be suited by step up in trip on pedigree. Stiff mark though for what he has achieved in maidens. 

Grey Sensation: Impressive maiden winner on penultimate start over 7f. Excused last time when beaten by smart winner and disadvantaged how race panned out, while travelling well actually. Got carried across the track from 2f out too. Step up in trip looks fine on pedigree. Potentially on lenient mark now.

Cape Hideaway: Very gutsy maiden winner over 7f lto. Pulling his way to the front, slightly outpaced 3f out and fought gamely on to the line. Fair opening mark. Up in trip looks possible, will need to learn to settle. 

Laidback Romeo: Not quite lucky last too times, not clear run for very long time on handicap debut recently, finished nicely. Not impossible to get trip with stamina on dam side. 

Lear'sRock: Excellent Handicap debut, made all, just beaten late on the line by closer. Up 3lb which seems fair. Form starts to work out. Step up to mile could work. 

Summer Stroll: Finished strongly in latest handicap when stuck in traffic for long time.. Seems rather exposed but judged on recent performance is clearly up to winning of current mark. Enough in pedigree to suggest step up in trip can bring out bit of improvement.

Verdict: Wide open race, plenty of chances and most horses trying the mile for the first time. Not unlikely to suit most, but also not clear that it does. Laidback Romeo was probably unlucky at Sandown recently, but as to prove stamina, as he was fading badly in a slowly 7f contest before. Grey Sensation is interesting, won well a maiden and was not quite suited the way the raxce was run in a strong handicap, down in class, he is a fine chance on balance. Lear's Rock did well from th e front when beaten late, but new trip and higher mark is something to be cautious about I feel. Bizarrio needs to bounce back. Summer Stroll as the bottom weights makes plenty of appeal over the new trip to suit and with the recent strong performance in a hot handicap, even though he is the one with most mileage under the belt. He seems rather big in the market as he should have as good a chance as anybody. Completely overlooked seems Cape Hideaway- Ground and trip as slight concerns, but he showed loads of guts when winning a decent Thirsk maiden, which form looks solid with the second having won subsequently. 

Summer Stroll @ 7/1 Betfred – 2pts win

Cape Hideaway @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 1pt win

PREVIEW: Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

15.10 Newmarket: Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

A hot contest with classy juveniles - it's fair to say that it'll fast and furious! Some of the best two year old sprinters gonna meet in this contest on the highest possible level. Obvious favourite is Richard Hannon's precocious ultra speedy filly Tiggy Wiggy. Not many have foreseen that she would develop into the classy speed ball that she is now, when she appeared on the Kempton All-Weather on her debut. She won by seven lengths that day! Since then she has won another four races, including the prestigious Lowther Stakes, beating subsequent Group 1 winner Cursory Glance rather easily. It won't be an easy task today, though. She is on the go already for quite a while this year, and her only run on quick ground resulted in a defeat - even though a very narrow one, and over 5f. The rather testing Newmarket 6f may be something, not quite playing into her hands either. So if you want to find flaws in her form, then you can find them. But no doubt, she is an extremely exciting filly! 

Queen Mary Staes conquer Anthem Alexander did bet Tiggy Wiggy that day at Royal Ascot. The Hannon filly put the record straight in the Lowther stakes subequently, then over 6f instead of the shorter trip, though. And it is the trip indeed which emerges as the main question for Anthem Alexander. She seems a top class sprinter, particularly over five furlongs. Could it be that the additional furlong is beyond her? We'll find out today. The French filly High Celebrity doesn't have to answer stamina questions. She won over 7f on debut, finished runner-up in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes when beaten as long odds-on favourite, even though things didn't really work her way that particular day and she is better judged on her recent success in a French Group 3 over five furlongs, when she drew clear in fine style in the closing stages. She looks open to much more improvement, she is still very lightly raced and the fact that Andre Fabre brings her over again is a big confidence boost, given the trainers excellent record here.  

Arabian Queen, winner of Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, wasn't quite suited by the step up to 7f subsequently, and will be better now down to six again. She is a very good filly in her own right, if she has quite the speed on quick ground against this top class opposition remains to be seen though. Lightly raced Oasis Dream filly Tendu was a runaway winner at Kempton earlier this month. It's quite a dramatic step up in class today, but she is open to improvement and we will be able to judge her much better after this race. David Simcock's Terror won a Warwick maiden by an impressive 10 lengths on debut. She doesn't have a flashy pedigree, but deserves her chance. Zuhoor Baynoona finished a decent third in Listed company last time out, following up on a good maiden success. She steps up to 6f for the first time, and that has to make a big difference, to see her competitive today. 

Verdict: Tiggy Wiggy is the class act in this field, but drifting in the market, and there are reasons for it. Quick ground, stiff track, long season - she has to be at her absolute best today to win. And while she is such an exciting filly, it might be worth to take her on with the French filly High Celebrity. Andre Fabre doesn't bring runners over to Newmarket if he doesn't think they can and his record speaks for itself. The filly is lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement. She looks the value against the hot favourite. For backers of long-shots, it might be interesting to get some quid on Arabian Queen. She'll be better down in trip, has won a Group 2 already and is a huge price. 

High Celebrity @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Arabian Queen @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win

PREVIEW: Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)

14.35 Newmarket: Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)

Elm Park: Won maiden in impressive style and followed up with Listed success over 1m from the front - good form, beating horses placed in Group level. Bred for middle distance and will get further in time. Testing finish should suit today, quick ground slight concern, may be found out for speed.

Lord Ben Stack: Extremely impressive maiden winner, overcame wide draw and early keenness, made all. Lengthened in eye-catching style, looks smart and big, scopy colt. Bred for middle-distance, quick ground unknown. 

Medrano: Won maiden over 7f at third attempt, when up with the pace (beat LBS). Tried to make all in Listed race over 1m lto, got tired in the end, finished well beaten runner-up. Probably did too much in front. Bred to get much further.

Misterioso: Won maiden really nicely on second time asking, following eye-catching debut. Travelled strongly, put race to bed in closing stages. Decent form. Bred for mile and quick ground fine. Looks to have plenty of scope.

Nafaqa: Won Listed race over 7f lto, stand out piece of form, beating subsequent Group 2 winner. Smart, was able to be competitive in Listed race on debut at Royal Ascot. Step up in trip perfectly fine on pedigree. The horse to beat.

Salateen: Won nicely lto after fading in Group 3 before. Form with Medrano and LBS. Step up in trip might not entirely suit, even though loads of stamina on dam side. 

Verdict: Extremely deep and competitive race. All runners have class and showed good recent form. Interesting to see how it tactically plays out as most runners have been up with the pace, if not even making all in their last starts. Favourite Nafaqa seems one who don't need to be close to the speed and his recent Listed success at Doncaster is potentially the strongest piece of form, since the runner-up won subsequently on Group 2 level. He was badly hanging in the closing stages either. Upped in trip should be fine on pedigree. However he's short enough in the betting and no certainty since others make appeal on form and prices too. Richard Hannon's Misterioso was eye-catching on debut when ridden way too far off the pace and as a result he didn't get a clear run but stayed on nicely while travelling strongly for long time. A no-nonsense ride in his second start from the front, and he travelled super strongly on the bridle again, until putting the race to bed under hands and heels. Form looks decent and he can improve further. More so, he is bred to be a miler on fast ground. Elm Park was impressive in his latest too, winning on Listed level, but the ground might be against him and I fear he could be found out for speed. Almost similar worries are over Lord Ben Stack, but he is double the price of Elm Park. He didn't have an easy race on debut over 7f, when fourth behind Medrano and Salateen, however upped in trip, he made no mistake and put in a bold show despite a wide draw and showing keenes early on. Form is decent and he looks a big, scopy colt, who has more to offer. Salateen and Medrano have decent form to offer themselves. My perception is, they might just be a bit short of class against this opposition today.

Misterioso @ 10/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

Lord Ben stack @ 9/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

PREVIEW: Mawatheeq Godolphin Stakes (Listed)

15.45 Newmarket: Mawatheeq Godolphin Stakes (Listed) - Flying The Flag: Second start for new connections, classy bred and good comeback run. Step up to 12f question mark, has to prove stamina.

Harris Tweed: Disappointing all three starts this year, usually best on soft, so drying ground another worry. Hard to fancy on current form.

Magic Hurricane: Improving handicapper, not too much mileage on the clock. Not so good last two times but step up to 12f should help. Best form on soft ground, remains to be seen if rather quick ground does suit: Needs to take another step forward to feature.

Nabucco: Cosistent and ran well this year in Listed races over 10f. Best form over 10f with cut in the ground, trip is a question mark and not entirely likely to suit on pedigree, yet if it could bring out further improvement, in with a chance. 

Penglai Pavilion: Progressive 3yo in France, Listed winner over 12f on heavy ground. Didn’t fire at Meydan and poor in two starts in the UK this year. If back to best, obvious chance, but hard to fancy on recent form.

Ayrad: Lightly raced and good 2nd at Epsom recently. Nicely bred and step up in trip interesting as looks possible on pedigree and could bring out the bit improvement to see him up to winning on this level. Drying ground slight concern.

Red Galileo: Return to form with close recent runner-up effort in a Conditions race at Doncaster. Found out for class in pattern class before, but fifth in Derby behind Australia good form potentially. Back up in trip which should very much suit. 

Windshear: Sets the standard on form. Strong 4th in Leger, four times runner-up in Group class and hot Handicaps before. However seems to find it hard to win.

Verdict: The outcome of this race should evolve around the three year old horses in this field. Their older rivals have major question marks to defy in most cases, and that gives the classic generation a big chance with the WFO allowance. Favourite Windshear sets the clear standard with his strong performances on Group level and his recent fourth in the St Leger. It’s a massive drop in Grade. However may he forgot how to win? That’s a worry and he’s to take on at short odds. The other two three year old contenders make allot appeal as big priced alternatives. Ayrad has yet to show that he is a pattern class horse, but he is very lightly raced and his recent return to form is encouraging and the step up in trip may suit him to improve the bit to be a very big runner today. Red Galileo was a creditable fifth in this years Derby and looked much improved in his most recent outing. Up in trip again should really suit and he’s my first choice to land the spoils today.

Red Galileo @ 7/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

Ayrad @ 12/1 Bet365 – 1pt win

Quick Tip - Thursday 25th September 2014

20.45 Kempton: She's Gorgeous @ 9/1 Sportinglife - 2pts win

Extremely competitive Handicap with many useful sorts. However the selection strikes as a very interesting runner with the three year WFA allowance. She won a decent maiden in taking style in first time visor on first AW start lto, when dropped back in trip. That was a very fine performance and she looks bound to improve further. As the bottom weight in this field, I feel she might be underestimated off her current mark of 72.

PREVIEW: 8.20 Kempton, Wednesday 24th September

20.20 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 12f - Double Discount: Solid recent form, usually competitive and consistent. Step up in trip needs to bring out improvement in order to win of current mark. Not certain to stay trip. Weakened in closing stages when tried once.

Cousin Khee: Won well in August over 14f, fine third down in trip at Wolverhampton lto, Up another couple of pounds, career highest required, trip potentially bit too sharp, good pace needed.

Bushel: Over hurdles this season, best performance most recent one in June. Little break since then. Progressive over the flat last year, won 12f Handicap at Ripon and strong 2^nd in Ascot Handicap. Record over this trip indicates he’ll be well suited by todays trip if fit and okay on AW, which should be perfectly fine on strong US pedigree. Blinkered 1^st time.

Modernism: Poor performing since May. Well beaten in all his last starts. Comes down to handy mark now,  below last winning mark. Record indicates that he doesn’t stay 12f.

Soul Intent: Improving sort. Won well at Epsom back in July. Up in class and mark but good AW record may improve again as revised mark not harsh.

Art Scholar: Won of much higher marks in the past and down to a low rating now, but recent performances not indicating that he is up to winning at the moment. 

Asia Minor: Progressive All-Weather performer. Not too much mileage on clock for 5yo and not impossible to have still more on the plate. Found out for class when seen in very hot class 2 Handicap in April.

Verdict: Very open looking race with plenty of valid contenders. Favourite Soul Intent could easily turn out to have still a couple of pounds in hand, but so could be the equally progressive Asia Minor and Bushel. The later one switches back to the flat after it didn't really work over hurdles for him. But he was very promising as three year old last season and ran big off one pound higher in a hot handicap last summer. With the perfect pedigree for the All-Weather, he looks a big price. Interesting is the filly Asia Minor too. She has a strong record on the All-Weather and can run big down in class against more appropriate opposition than when finishing down the field in much higher grade when last seen. 

Bushel @ 10/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win

Asia Minor @ 15/2 VC - 1pt win

NAP Of The Day - Tuesday 23rd September 2014

15.15 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 12f

Hesketh Bank: Lightly raced and might have still bit left. Excuses for latest poor showing. Won good race before. However mark seems high enough at the moment.

Intense Tango: Good performance over further in hot handicap. Won before over 12f a similar race. Further up in the mark but can still improve. Trip and ground fine.

Clear Spell: Showed fine form in recent weeks. Won at Hamilton over 11f and placed twice subsequently. Not sure additional furlong will suit.

Ryeolliean: Up in trip and down in mark. Not impossible to show more under those conditions today but not entirely sure to stay the trip.

Chivers: Stays trip and beyond. Won two races this year. Drying ground over this trip and high enough mark could make life tough.

Tactical Strike: Best performance came on handicap debut, hasn’t shown much in five starts otherwise. Hard to fancy on form.

Verdict: I can only see Intense Tango and Hesketh Bank really good enough to win this, on form at least. With those rather unexposed three year olds you never quite know what you get but it is hard to see any of the others emerging as a potent winning candidate based on form and race conditions. Intense Tango is a pretty short favourite and there is clear evidence in the form book why. But I feel Hesketh Bank offers equally strong form. His Musselburgh success is the best form in the field, and while he is much higher in the mark now, it is not impossible that he can progress again. His latest effort at Ascot is excusable when nothing went for him and he raced awkwardly. If he can leave that performance behind, he should go really close today.

Hesketh Bank @ 5/1 Betfred

-NR-

Quick Tip - Monday 22nd September 2014

17.40 Kempton: Tides Reach @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Competitive race and the horses towards the head of the market are all very solid contenders, but they are not unbeatable and there are a couple of bigger prices in the field that could be interesting if you forgive them the odd poor run. Most interesting price wise is Tides Reach for me. If you forgive her her most recent abysmal performance, you can see a rather consistent and progressive animal, thriving on the AW/quick ground. The run at Ffos Las came on bottomless ground, so it's easy to see a reason why she didn't perform that day. She wasn't far beaten in a small field at Windsor before following an impressive win in another small field. She won at Kempton last year over 7f but one mile isn't an issue, and now back here on this surface on only her second start, she is an interesting runner. With James Doyle in the saddle she also has the best possible assistance today, and for all of that she looks to have a better chance than her big price suggests. 

PREVIEW: Group 3 Action at Gowran Park

15.55 Gowran Park: Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Group 3) - Interesting contest with some excellent horses in the line-up. Dermto Weld's Brooch seems the likeliest winner on paper and is a short priced favourite to land her first Group win. This 3yo filly showed loads of promise on debut when winning a maiden at Galway and she followed up nicely in Listed company at Killarney last month. There is surely more to come and she is must rate a big runner in this field. However she won't have it easy. Consistent Group level performer Odeliz is fine form and has some big performance against her name this season. The nature of the track at Gowran Park might count slightly against her as she comes usually from off the pace, as well as the ground is not hundred percent ideal over this trip is my feeling. Yet she will be thereabouts on pure form. 

Regardez won a Listed race over 10f at Newcastle by a wide margin, and she followed up with another strong front-running performance York subsequently when she was beaten in 3rd a tight finish. That form looks really strong, and taking into account that Regardez is still in a phase where improvement is likely, she must be a big danger for all here today. Alive Alive Oh ran consistently well in recent weeks, without coming close to get her head in front. She didn't turn out to be the horse many thought she could be last year and on balance she has a good bit to find with a couple in this field. Akira was a bit unlucky in her latest runs and I feel she could win a Listed race over a mile, but this trip is a bit too far and the opposition too classy. Maggie Dalton finished strongly in a hot Curragh handicap in her latest start and she could be up to score at Listed level at some point, though it would be a major surprise if she is good enough today. Hard to fancy any of the other three remaining runners. 

Verdict: If Brooch can progress further, she might turn out too good for all her rivals in this field. However good horses are first to beat, and I feel that Regardez could have things all her way up on front, which will play into her hands as she stays up to 10f well and the nature of the track will favour her running style. She has excellent form to offer, which is strong enough to suggest that she has every chance to run a big race. 

Regardez @ 5/1 VC - 3pts win

PREVIEW: Pennsylvania Derby - The return of Chrome!

It's the return of California Chrome today. He came close to become the first Triple Crown winner in ages, but he failed at the final hurdle at Belmont, as we all know now. Things didn't go to plan from there on. Injury problems made life tough. But he is back now for an ambitious autumn campaign, which will culminate in a bid for glory in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Today his first run on his way to Santa Anita - the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby seems an ideal opportunity. But it won't be quite as easy. There are some serious rivals in the line-up. And there is the very valid question about Chrome's fitness. How well is he? Can he find back to his brilliant best after the injury worries? Might this trip be a bit sharp for him on his return against some seasoned and in-form horses? We all know how classy Chrome is, what serious performances he put in earlier this year. But this all counts for little today, when he has clearly some questions to answer. On the other hand, it is absolutely brilliant to see him back running. He is a racing celebrity and it's credit to him, his charisma and his enormous talent that the world is watching Parx today. 

California Chrome: Class act, won over this trip, Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner. Didn’t stay Belmont trip, injured afterwards, back after break now.

Candy Boy: Runner-up in West Virginia Derby lto. Decent performer on Grade level, without finding winning easy. Well beaten by Clifronia Chrome twice this year.

Protonico: Lightly raced Giant’s Causeway son. Constantly improving, won Grade 3 at this track lto, tries this trip for the second time in his career, finished 3rd on sole start but on pedigree no problem.

Bayern: Haskell winner when he got an easy lead. Impressive that day but couldn't follow up and when challenged for lead he is doing usually too much. Might not have his own way up on front here.

Noble Moon: Lightly raced, still improvement left and not completely out of it. Has stamina to prove.

Classic Giacnroll: Consistent decent performances this year, without winning. Went super close lto when runner-up to Protonico. Hasn’t fired over this trip yet but should be fine on pedigree.

Tapiture: Won West Virginia Derby lto, staying on strongly. Tough and consistent sort, in with an obvious chance on form.

C J’s Awesome: Front-runner, will challenge for lead and will force pace. Not up to this class.

Verdict: If California Chrome is 100% fit, well then he’ll be hard to beat. It's that simple. I can see him getting the perfect race, nicely set up by the likely front-runners Bayern and CJA - as they are likely to be racing for the lead. Chrome can sit behind and make his usual move coming off the home bend. What does he find then is the question?! I believe his target is the Breeders Cup Classic, so his trainer will have left something to work on – mind you this is only a Grade 2 today. There is a general question mark over his fitness after a long season and recent injury problems. Therefore I think we can take him on, considering he is such a short price.

I do really like the look of the lightly raced Protonico. Improving all the time, won at Graded level for the first time lto when scoring in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes over 1m. That day he didn’t have an easy race, finding himself short of room on his way around the home at a crucial stage, and again when approaching the home straight. He shouldn't have had a chance to catch the leader at this point, he should have been finished. but somehow he got out into the clear and ran down the eventual runner-up, who looked moments before like a 1.01 shot on the in-running market on Betfair! He is clearly a seriously talented horse and while he tried today's trip only once before, in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, when beaten in a photo by two horses that came from off the pace, he shouldn't have a problem with the trip at all, as on pedigree he’ll get it alright. With more improvement to come, Protonico is capable of running a huge race for a big price. 

An even bigger price long shot is Classic Giacnroll. He doesn't look too likely to get his head in front against some top class opposition here. But it shouldn't be forgotten that he didn’t always got the best of runs in the past and his most recent performance, the runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Protonico is noteworthy. A repeat would see him going close in my mind. That day he produced a lovely change of gear when slipping through on the inside approaching the home straight, while coming from almost last to look the winner until 50y out. He was probably a bit idling and didn't see the eventual winner coming. He tries the 9f trip again today, hasn't done too well over it in the past on pure form, but he should get it on pedigree and might be the one staying one from behind for an upset, as the likely quick pace should give a horse from off the pace a chance.

Protonico @ 12/1 – 1pt win Bet365

Classic Giacnroll @ 33/1 1pt win Bet365

Newbury: Looking Good a good thing!

16.05 Newbury: Class 3 Nursery, 7f - Polarisation: Won Ayr maiden nicely drawing well clear inside final furlong. Things went too quickly nto in hot handicap. Should be suited by additional furlong. Ground unknown. 

Silver Quay: Good winner at Salisbury, Competitive in much higher class lto, fine performance. Not sure if drop in trip will suit, but also not impossible to do so on soft ground to suit. 

Harlequin Striker: Got finally off the mark in maiden lto at Epsom. Overcoming wide draw and won well from front. Opening mark looks fair. Soft ground a question mark but looks big and scopy. 

L'Etacq: Won 5f Handicap at Brighton, not up to it subsequently. Hard to fancy here. 

Little Palaver: Still maiden, decent efforts in all starts, needs to improve on first Handicap start. Mark looks fair. 

Looking Good: Fair maiden form, improved for step up in trip to 7f at Sandown, came with big run approaching final furlong when badly hampered. Deserves another chance of 1lb lower.

Verdict: Hannon's Silver Quay seems the pick on form and might well turn out too good for this lot, however the drop in trip might count against him. Polarisation is better than when seen last time, the ground is a question mark though. Overall it looks an open enough race and that gives the bottom weight Looking Good a chance to feature strongly. This Makfi filly was unlucky on her latest run when she was coming with a strong run just to be badly hampered in the closing stages. The mark looks fair enough and she could easily turn out to be better than the mark of 70, what she is rated currently. 

Looking Good @ 11/2 Ladbrokes – 2pts win

PREVIEW: Doonside Cup (Listed)

15.15 Ayr: Doonside Cup (Listed), 10f - Abseil: Progressive early in the season, culminating in strong Epsom success over 1m 1/2f. Three rather disappoint performances subsequently, looked outpaced and not up for it. Need to improve to be competitive here over new trip. 10f looks possible on pedigree. 

Gabrial: Quick ground will suit, decent recent run over 12f at Chester. Improved nicely from 4f out and looked in with big chance but outstayed in final furlong. Has never been placed over anything further than 9f but ran in hot raced against excellent rivals, and been largely competitive. 

Mirsaale: Won 10f Handicap as 3yo, not improved over winter and poor this season. Tried over further, drop in trip might help to find back to something like form. 

Sennockian Star: Good, consistent handicapper over the years. 10F and ground suit, won at Ayr before. Drops in trip after two runs over further. Need to be back to best, to have chance to land first Listed race. 

Sky Hunter: Progressive 3yo in France, 3rd behind Intello in French Derby, won Listed race over 12f subsequently. Didn't show anything in two starts this year. Needs to be improved after break. However remains of interest as he's potentially the most talented sort in this field. 

Treasure The Ridge: Hugely progressive lately. Won couple of races on the bounce, big class 2 handicap recently, coming from impossible position. Surely possible to progress further but loads to find on ratings and this much tough assignment on the weights. 

Mutatis Mutandis: Only won maiden as a 2yo, decent performance in Newbury Listed race but looked out off depth lto. Needs to prove that she is good enough. 

Verdict: If Sky Hunter could find back to his best 3yo form, he'll be obviously hard to beat in this field. But there are plenty of question marks and his current price is fair at best, so makes sense to take him on. Only one horse really makes appeal to do so in my mind: Gabrial: Clear return to form recently at Chester, just faded in final furlong over trip stretching his stamina. Drop in trip clearly to suit, and while he hasn't a good record over 10f, I've no doubt he gets the trip and if you look through his forms, he has come against some excellent horses, but won nicely a Handicap at Meydan and is consistent on Listed/premium handicap level. He finds conditions to suit and should give the favourite plenty to think about. He's the value in the race in my mind.

Gabrial @ 5/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win

NAP - Thursday 18th September 2014

19.10 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m - Pretty interesting handicap for three year olds. Plenty of promising types in the race. The obvious one is Godolphin's Holiday Magic. Improved with every start, and off the mark with a fine front-running performance over course and distance a fortnight ago. Opening mark seems fair and more improvement to come. It has to be said, that he had pretty much the run of the race since he was in front. I kind of like Clive Brittain's Surety. Slightly exposed and not really close to win yet, but shaped with promise and with talented 5lb claimer on board, in with a chance. Kubeba on his handicap debut is not out of it either due to a fair mark, but needs to find improvement to turn the form around with Holiday Magic from his recent maiden. 

In the same race there was one hugely eye-catching performance though, which came from Luca Cumani's Frederic. He has a decent pedigree, is related to plenty of winners, and shaped with an awful lot of promise on his first All-Weather start. He was quite unlucky not to finish closer than the 1¼ down in 3rd in the end. He was stuck in traffic once the field approached the home turn and was badly bumped around 2f out. He got eventually into the clear and finished super strongly under a pretty light hands and heels ride. Frederic is bred to stay further and I'm sure he will need a step up to 10f rather sooner than later. But for now a mile should fine, considering that the opening mark off 73 looks very lenient. With a clear run, I do fancy him to turn the form around with Holiday Magic. 

Frederic @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

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It's not news anymore but still something to celebrate - our last selection, Ansgar - advised below at 7/1, won the Park Stakes at Doncaster in fine style from the front. A trip to Dubai could be next on the agenda form him now.

PREVIEW: Park Stakes (Group 2)

Park Stakes (Group 2) - Es Que Love: Excellent winner at Goodwood over 7f, but the way race was run did suit him to bits, as it was a pure sprint finish. Consistent Group performer in general,and in with chance if they don't go a mad gallop. But pace seems to be on here and that is big negative over this trip for EQL so does the 4lb penalty.

Aljamaaheer: Group winner over 1m and runner-up in Queen Anne last year, reverted to sprinting this season and finished strong third in Diamond Jubilee. Disappointing in JulyCup. Blinkers of, CP on. If he settles, he should run his race over trip to suit. Pace might work in his favour, new headgear needs to help him though.

Ansgar: Progressed into Group performer this season over 7f. Winner of two Group 3's. Latest at Goodwood. Likes to be up with pace to use his stamina. Can step up in Grade and quick ground will suit. 

Gregorian: Only beaten by a tight margin in G2 Hungersford Stakes last month, excellent third in July Cup earlier. Loves trip and clear chance on form. Drying ground slight worry as he usually is best with bit give in the ground and quick home straight is against him.

Penitent: Front-runner, not so good this season since winning Group 3 in May. Needs plenty of juice in the ground usually and up against it here.

Professor: Third behind Ansgar at Goodwood last month, but fair and square beaten that day and there isn't much indicating at the moment that he is good enough to land this.

Cable Bay: Developed into consistent Group performer as a juvenile, seen only once this year when well beaten last month. Should improve with that run under the belt but hard to fancy here.

That Is The Spirit: Listed race winner over 7f this year, two decent efforts since then. Can't see him good enough here, despite WFO allowance. 

Verdict: The step up in trip does potentially suit Aljamaaheer. If he can find back to his best, he hasobvious claims. Gregorian is in with a big shout on form too. I do wonder if the ground turned against him though. Value of the race islate improving Ansgar though. Winner of two Group 3 races over 7f this year, the ground will be in his favour and he has a big chance to follow up on his recent Goodwood success.

Ansgar @ 7/1 Coral - 2pts win

PREVIEW: May Hill Stakes (Group 2)

15.15 Doncaster: May Hill Stakes (Group 2) - Agnes Stewart: Won Fairyhouse maiden easily almost on bridle.Followed up with fine 2nd in strong Group 3 when inconvenienced by eventual winner right in front of him in home straight, changed legs several times in closing stages. Step up to 1mto suit very much on pedigree. Form works out extremely well.

Alonsoa: Won first two career starts,including Listed race. Disappointing in Group 3 lto but soft groundmight not suited at all as pedigree also rather pointing towardsquick ground. Nicely bred out of 1.000 Guineas 3rd andopen to improvement over new trip.

Astrelle: Progressive handicapper, notdisgraced in Group 3 lto. Needs to improve further for new trip.

Banzari: Decent debut when strongstaying on 2nd from off the pace. Step up in trip to suiton pedigree.

Bonnie Grey: Genuine and tough, good 2nd in Group 3 lto. Step up in trip not likely to suit on pedigree.

Muraaqaba: Won nicely on debut, unluckyat Ascot when hampered in closing stages when making move. ExcellentListed win lto. Clearly precocious and smart. Can get the trip andsets high standard here.

Shagah: Decent Goodwood maiden winner,couldn't follow up in Conditions Stakes at Ascot and plenty to findon form. 

Surpreme Occasion: Good Handicap winner at Newcastle and strong performance of revised mark at York lto. Thisbig step up in class, more to come over new trip tough.

Verdict: Muraaqaba looks a rock solid favourite. New trip and ground are not quite sure to suit and I fancyAlonsoa to be able to turn the form around. She is progressive, hatedthe soft ground lto, but with a quicker going and the additionalfurlong very much to suit, she is one to take very seriously here.The Irish raider Agnes Stewart is another one I quite like. Extremelystrong performance in a very good Group 3 at Leopardstown is probablythe strongest form of all in this field. She bred to stay further, sothe new trip will very much suit.

Alonsoa @ 11/2 Sportingbet – 2pts win

Agnes Stewart @ 7/2 Sportingbet –3pts win

PREVIEW: Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed)

16.25 Doncaster: Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) - Carry On Deryeck: Won maiden on debut in impressive style, not getting a run until very late and coming from an impossible position. Merit of that form in question though. Small 4-runner field didn't seem to suit when stepped up into Listed company, saw plenty of daylight too early. Nicely bred and trip should suit.

Nafaqa: Impressive on debut in Listed race at RA. Missed the break completely but did well to finish fourth in very competitive race. Form works out strongly. Off the mark in maiden subsequently. Had to work hard for it though. Ground potentially slight concern. Nicely bred.

Peacock: Very impressive debut winner, strong form. Showed plenty of speed and raw power that day. Reared and subsequently bumped at start lto when up in trip and class. Clearly impacted by that and eased in closing stages. Deserves another chance.

Sea Wolf: Tough, genuine type. Won well on debut, good performances in subsequent starts against good opposition. Won small race lto first time over 7f. Should be happy in todays conditions.

Toocoolforschool: Won second time out, was very green on first two starts, didn't see to know to be a racehorse, looking around all time time. More professional lto in Group 3 upped in trip at York. Very keen early on and just beaten on the line in the end.

White Lake: Won York maiden in impressive style. Big move on outside and produced lovely turn of foot to put race to bed. Form threw up subsequent winners already. Should get further in time but seems to have enough speed.

Risen Sun: Won Debutant maiden easily, travelling strongly. Might have had the edge against poor opposition, but couldn't have been more impressive. Open to improvement and step up in trip should suit though.

Verdict: White Like makes plenty of appeal after a mightly strong debut. He's short enough in the betting though and there are plenty in with the potential for improvement. Toocoolforschool went close in a Group 3 lto and has obvious claims. But with not much form to offer and loads of guesswork required, I tend to think there is value to find in the bigger prices. I do like Mark Johnston's filly Risen Sun. Unclear what she beat on debut but she looked extremely impressive and upped in trip, which should suit on pedigree is open to plenty of improvement. I used to be a huge fan of Paco Boy and his son Peacock could well be better than his latest run. He impressed me on debut, beating the subsequent Chesham Stakes winner easily. Probably lost the race on his second start at the gate, and deserves another chance.

Peacock @ 16/1 Bet365 – 1pt win

Risen Sun @ 10/1 Ladbrokes – 1pt win

Selections: Thursday 11th September 2014

16.25 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap - Maven: Comes down to workable mark, won of 84 in the past and this year of 83 at Pontefract. Has form on soft ground but never won on anything worse than good, so drying ground a plus. However Doncaster form abysmal.

Yojojo: Very strong 2nd last week at Brighton when only narrowly denied. Can race off same mark and that gives her an obvious chance. Up in grade and in class here though, so this is a bit tougher. Has only won once over 10f but does get trip fine and finished close 2nd off 88 earlier this year.

Flippant: Not too many miles under the belt and nicely progressing. Was a decent 2yo and improved further this year. A winner of two races, only one let down when she didn't perform around Epsom. But made amends at Newbury last time out. More improvement to come of revised mark and unexposed over this sort of trip.

Hot Coffee: Lightly raced maiden winner over 6f. Tries 10f for the first time andd would need to step up her game given the fact that she was fair and square beaten last time out over 9f off a similar mark. On pedigree the trip doesn't look likely to be what she wants though.

Blue Waltz: Won maiden at the third time of asking lto, despite looking green and wandering around in the closing stages. Open to more improvement and opening mark looks fair. Not quite a flashy pedigree though and it remains to be seen how much better she can be eventually.

Principle Equation: Good runner-up last month at Ripon, on first attempt over 10f. Winner was too good but came well clear of rest of the field. Won maiden over 1m at Windsor before and could still improve. Has to do so however, in order to be in with a chance in this better class.

Limousine: Lightly raced, won 12f maiden at Kempton a fortnight ago, responding well to pressure within final furlong. Had her own way up on front throughout. Beaten on the line in 10f maiden before. Drop in trip seems strange as she is all stamina, with influence on sire side but even more so on the dam side. Opening mark is fair but she might lack the speed. 

Verdict: Yojojo has an obvious chance off her current mark, on the other hands this race is on paper a tougher one than the one she finished agonizingly close last time out and she might do struggle to give weight away to the three year olds. I'm mainly thinking of Flippant, who looks a lovely progressive filly, getting better with any start, without ever doing more than required. Still unexposed over the trip, she boosts a nice pedigree and should have the most potential to be better than her current mark. She looks clearly an attractive price to my eyes. --- Flippant @ 4/1 Coral - 2pts win

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18.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap – Imaginary World: Won nicely over CD last month, when pulling easily clear despite meeting in-running throuble. Didn't perform subsequently over 1m back on turf. Judged on this most recent AW chance, she should go well here. However top weight in better class is though. Career best required. Talented apprentice's claim helps.

Al Manaal: Made all from the front at Goodwood last time out and was long in front, just got tired from half a furlong out. Good performance nonetheless and a repeat of that will see her going close here since she is certainly down to a very fair mark. A return to the AW is interesting too. There isn't too much pace in this race either, which means she should be able to get a rather easy time up on front and that will benefit her.

Aragosta: Very impressive winner at Kempton last time out. Excellent change of gear, when never too far off the pace. Won easily. Wasn't a strong maiden, but still the opening mark off 72 looks rather lenient. Quite decent pedigree as well. Full sister to excellent AW gelding Primaeval.

Swiss Kiss: Not so good on turf on latest start, however eye-catching success on Lingfield's polytrack over 1m. Impressive turn of foot over 2f out. Five pounds higher here but chance on the weights with WFA allowance and back on the AW is a big plus. Drop in trip should be too much of a problem.

Valen: Didn't show too many positive signs since maiden win in August last year. Bit better recently and slipping mark should help. But switch to All-Weather must bring out a good deal of improvement to have a chance here.

Madam Mirasol: Impressive winner in August, followed up with fine runner-up effort when cominf from impossible position. Further up in the mark and new career best required, taking quite some step up in class too.

Lilly Junior: Maiden winner at the sixth time of asking at Ripon last month over 1m. Decent Handicap performance at Yarouth in July as well. Seems useful enough but drop in trip seems strange and opening mark is stiff enough for what this filly has shown so far.

Bint Dandy: Dundalk maiden winner for Paul Deegan. First start for new yard in the Uk now. Mark is down but hard to know what to expect.

Verdict: Couple of horses with chances to well. Favourite Aragosta is rightly heading the market. Nice pedigree, excellent recent win and a fair opening mark. However she didn't beat much that day and has to face some tough opposition here. Imaginary World was strong on her penultimate outing and judged on has a fair chance, but a career best is required. Plenty of appeal makes Lingfield winner Swiss Kiss. Back on the AW will suit and with the weight for age allowance she should go really well. I like her at around 8/1 quite allot. Al Manaal is another really interesting contender. Most recent performance of a reduced mark was really good. She has a fair chance to follow up on that with a success, given that she won earlier this year of higher. 10/1 seems generous.

Swiss Kiss @ 8/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

Al Manaal @ 10/1 Ladbrokes – 2pts win

Selections - Wednesday 10th September 2014

20.15 Kempton: Conditions Stakes, Class 4: Very interesting little race here with plenty of really nice prospects in the line-up. When I was looking through it last night, without having prices, I was wondering how the market would look like this morning. Seeing the prices this morning, I am certainly a bit baffled. A quick check-in with any runner in this field first though: 

Mr Quicksilver: Expensive newcomer, cost €300k as a yearling and lovely bred with Group winning form on sire and dam side. Also a full brother to a French 2.000 Guineas and has some big race entries. Will have to be ready and live up to pedigree in order to win this against tough opposition.

Restorer: Impressive winner on debut at Ffos Las. Quickened nicely and won hands and heels by 3 lengths. More required here, but should be competitive. Dam was All-Weather winner.

Sharp Sailor: Was a €140k yearling, made half of that when sold a 2yo Fine pedigree and related to good horses. Won in excellent fashion on second career outing at Lingfield lto, producing some impressive change of gear. Form works out already. More to come.

St Lawrence Gap: Shocking debut. Need to improve dramatically to be in with a chance.

Local Time: Well bred, step up in trip no problem, i nfact should relish the additional furlong on pedigree. Won in super impressive style maiden here at kempton lto, going clear easily in closing stages. Form strong and works out well with couple of subsequent winners, including one who went on to perform with loads of credit in Group company. Receives weight from the boys here. 

Verdict: Local Time seems to set a very high standard given his strong win here at Kempton lto. He's bound to improve and looks a nice prospect. However his sires record with 2yo over 1m isn't particularly impressive and it might well be that Local Time turns out to be a better 3yo and find this test today tough. On that basis the price is too short given the strong field she has to beat today. Sharp Sailor makes plenty of appeal on paper and form too. More to come from him too. Bit the forgotten horse seems to be the newcomer Mr Quicksilver. Drifting currently in the betting and we don't know what he is like, but he boosts such a strong pedigree and is related to plenty of good horses, that he must be of interest here. Connections wouldn't start him in such a strong racing if he wouldn't have shown anything at home. That goes along with his entries for big sales races next month. So I'll be taking him a chance on him. --- Mr Quicksilver @ 9/1 VC

21.15 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap - Very poor race and you can pick holes into the forms of any of the more fancied horses. That gives longshot Settle For Red a chance to find back to form. He is down to a very interesting handicap mark after a couple of disappointing efforts since racing in the UK. In fact he is down to his last winning mark of 59, when he won a Handicap at Dundalk. He subsequently followed up with another decent performance of six pounds higher. Since May he is care of Jeremy Gask who didn't find the key to unlock the potential of this horse yet, but as outlined, after three poor runs, the mark is down to something workable and it is interesting to see the visor on for the first, which bring out one or two pounds of improvement. On that evidence I give him a chance to well in this field. --- Settle For Red @ 16/1 VC - 2pts win

NAP Of The Day - Monday 8th September 2014

15.30 Brighton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f - Siouxperhero: Scored hat-trick in July, up in thr weights and found out for class in better race lto. This more realistic however record over 7f poor. Up against off top weight here.
Footstepsintherain: Better on All-Weather so far and no win on turf. Tumbling down the weights and best seasonal performance of career lowest mark over 7f at Leicester lto. Staying on nicely late finishing best of all from off the pace. Ground should suit and Brighton could well suit too.
Waseem Faris: Trip is a worry but slipping down the weights to a very workable mark. Step up in trip will have to rejuvenate him though.
Bayleyf: Convincing success from the front over CD last time out. Remains very competitive under penalty. Might not have his own way this time though.
Fiftyshadesofgray: Not disgraced in recent starts but also didn't set world alight. Only win came in maiden company. This is easier than most of races he did contest on. Cheek pieces will have to bring out improvement. Not impossible with weight for age allowance in favour.
Royal Connection: Last poor run down to ground. Die well in recent weeks from more or less similar marks largely over 7f. Won over CD in July. Consistent and chance.
Shifting Star: Veteran who was in fine form in the last couple of weeks. On a high enough mark though and won't find this easy.

Verdict: Good chance for the 3yo on the weights, I'd prefer Royal Connection for the fact that he is consistent and is sure to be in the mix. But the filly is not a world beater and needs to improve from a mark that she found difficult to finally overcome. Most interesting is Footstepsintherain. He was improved last time out from a career lowest mark and stayed on really well while not being advantaged racing off the pace. He has an obvious chance off the same mark here, with Brighton likely to provide the right test for him. --- Footstepsintherain @ 6/1 Coral - 3pts win

Dundalk Selections - Sunday 7th September 2014

14.50 Dundalk: Spryt @ 9/2 Sportingbet - 3pts win

Should be between the Lyons trained favourite and Weld's horse. Dandyleekie looks like a horse suited by the drop in trip given the fact that he usually shows good early speed and is fading from 1f out. His most recent third behind subsequent G2 runner-up Lucida rates fine form. On the other hand you can pick easily holes into his form either. He never found anything once off the bridle and has to give an awful lot of weight away here today. An opening mark of 93 is quite stiff and it's not said he is up to it. Spryt was beaten in a tight finish on debut at Listowel was subsequently a bit disappointing, though quite badly hampered at Galway and eased at Gowran Park lto. He seems a lazy sort and maybe a visor works better than the blinkers did. He is actually not quite bred for 5f but showed decent early speed in all his starts and seems not staying 7f. Drop in trip and a quicker race should suit I suspect and now dropping into a Nursery he remains interesting of a potential lenient mark off 76. Obviosuly Sassy But Classy is also open to improvement of her opening mark, given that she ran consistently well in decent maidens. But I feel the Weld gelding is overpriced given this new trip and the low mark allocated.

16.30 Dundalk: Hoppsan @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Plenty with a chance here but I do feel Hoppsan offer value for money. She finished a nice third behind Hilary at Bellewstown in a rough race where she didn't have all going for herself. Hilary contrary had the run of the race, went up five pounds for that success and is favourite today here. Hoppsan can race off the same mark and has not too many miles under her belt. On two previous starts at Dundalk she finished an unlucky 2nd, beaten a neck, off a same mark as she in currently. She won off 54 subsequently then. So it's fair to assume that she has a preference for the All-Weather and can be very competitive today on only her third Dundalk start off a very fair mark, given that she is also in excellent form and quite a consistent mare. Favourite Hilary has winning credentials despite her revised mark with a 7lb claimer in the saddle, while Art Scene goes well at this surface and warrants respect with Smullen in the saddle. Carla's Princess finished in the money in subsequent Dundalk starts and will be thereabouts, might need a bit assistance from the handicapper though, to finally break her maiden tag. well fancied Anner Queen is still a maiden as well but has some decent form to offer and can go well today too. Some others aren't out either, but I believe Hoppsan offers value here.

17.00 Dundalk: Cash Or Casualty @ 8/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

I do fancy the chance of the uncomplicated and well in-form Cash Or Casualty. He is slightly better over bit shorter, however has CD form and loves Dundalk in general. He dropped right down in the weights to an extremely sexy mark, considering that he ran well off around 20lb higher marks last year. His recent form reads very strong too. An excellent runner-up effort here over CD in a very competitive race that works out very well already. He confirmed his well being with a strong sixth in much higher class (60-90 Hc) at the Curragh when he wasn't that far beaten. Back at Dundalk now, of a mark off 65 from a good draw in a low grade Handicap - he rates a big chance. The additional 10lb claim of the apprentice on board will only add further to his strong chance to win this race. Major opportunity for Cash Or Casualty to find back to the winning ways.