PREVIEW: Mawatheeq Godolphin Stakes (Listed)

15.45 Newmarket: Mawatheeq Godolphin Stakes (Listed) - Flying The Flag: Second start for new connections, classy bred and good comeback run. Step up to 12f question mark, has to prove stamina.

Harris Tweed: Disappointing all three starts this year, usually best on soft, so drying ground another worry. Hard to fancy on current form.

Magic Hurricane: Improving handicapper, not too much mileage on the clock. Not so good last two times but step up to 12f should help. Best form on soft ground, remains to be seen if rather quick ground does suit: Needs to take another step forward to feature.

Nabucco: Cosistent and ran well this year in Listed races over 10f. Best form over 10f with cut in the ground, trip is a question mark and not entirely likely to suit on pedigree, yet if it could bring out further improvement, in with a chance. 

Penglai Pavilion: Progressive 3yo in France, Listed winner over 12f on heavy ground. Didn’t fire at Meydan and poor in two starts in the UK this year. If back to best, obvious chance, but hard to fancy on recent form.

Ayrad: Lightly raced and good 2nd at Epsom recently. Nicely bred and step up in trip interesting as looks possible on pedigree and could bring out the bit improvement to see him up to winning on this level. Drying ground slight concern.

Red Galileo: Return to form with close recent runner-up effort in a Conditions race at Doncaster. Found out for class in pattern class before, but fifth in Derby behind Australia good form potentially. Back up in trip which should very much suit. 

Windshear: Sets the standard on form. Strong 4th in Leger, four times runner-up in Group class and hot Handicaps before. However seems to find it hard to win.

Verdict: The outcome of this race should evolve around the three year old horses in this field. Their older rivals have major question marks to defy in most cases, and that gives the classic generation a big chance with the WFO allowance. Favourite Windshear sets the clear standard with his strong performances on Group level and his recent fourth in the St Leger. It’s a massive drop in Grade. However may he forgot how to win? That’s a worry and he’s to take on at short odds. The other two three year old contenders make allot appeal as big priced alternatives. Ayrad has yet to show that he is a pattern class horse, but he is very lightly raced and his recent return to form is encouraging and the step up in trip may suit him to improve the bit to be a very big runner today. Red Galileo was a creditable fifth in this years Derby and looked much improved in his most recent outing. Up in trip again should really suit and he’s my first choice to land the spoils today.

Red Galileo @ 7/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

Ayrad @ 12/1 Bet365 – 1pt win

Quick Tip - Thursday 25th September 2014

20.45 Kempton: She's Gorgeous @ 9/1 Sportinglife - 2pts win

Extremely competitive Handicap with many useful sorts. However the selection strikes as a very interesting runner with the three year WFA allowance. She won a decent maiden in taking style in first time visor on first AW start lto, when dropped back in trip. That was a very fine performance and she looks bound to improve further. As the bottom weight in this field, I feel she might be underestimated off her current mark of 72.

PREVIEW: 8.20 Kempton, Wednesday 24th September

20.20 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 12f - Double Discount: Solid recent form, usually competitive and consistent. Step up in trip needs to bring out improvement in order to win of current mark. Not certain to stay trip. Weakened in closing stages when tried once.

Cousin Khee: Won well in August over 14f, fine third down in trip at Wolverhampton lto, Up another couple of pounds, career highest required, trip potentially bit too sharp, good pace needed.

Bushel: Over hurdles this season, best performance most recent one in June. Little break since then. Progressive over the flat last year, won 12f Handicap at Ripon and strong 2^nd in Ascot Handicap. Record over this trip indicates he’ll be well suited by todays trip if fit and okay on AW, which should be perfectly fine on strong US pedigree. Blinkered 1^st time.

Modernism: Poor performing since May. Well beaten in all his last starts. Comes down to handy mark now,  below last winning mark. Record indicates that he doesn’t stay 12f.

Soul Intent: Improving sort. Won well at Epsom back in July. Up in class and mark but good AW record may improve again as revised mark not harsh.

Art Scholar: Won of much higher marks in the past and down to a low rating now, but recent performances not indicating that he is up to winning at the moment. 

Asia Minor: Progressive All-Weather performer. Not too much mileage on clock for 5yo and not impossible to have still more on the plate. Found out for class when seen in very hot class 2 Handicap in April.

Verdict: Very open looking race with plenty of valid contenders. Favourite Soul Intent could easily turn out to have still a couple of pounds in hand, but so could be the equally progressive Asia Minor and Bushel. The later one switches back to the flat after it didn't really work over hurdles for him. But he was very promising as three year old last season and ran big off one pound higher in a hot handicap last summer. With the perfect pedigree for the All-Weather, he looks a big price. Interesting is the filly Asia Minor too. She has a strong record on the All-Weather and can run big down in class against more appropriate opposition than when finishing down the field in much higher grade when last seen. 

Bushel @ 10/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win

Asia Minor @ 15/2 VC - 1pt win

NAP Of The Day - Tuesday 23rd September 2014

15.15 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 12f

Hesketh Bank: Lightly raced and might have still bit left. Excuses for latest poor showing. Won good race before. However mark seems high enough at the moment.

Intense Tango: Good performance over further in hot handicap. Won before over 12f a similar race. Further up in the mark but can still improve. Trip and ground fine.

Clear Spell: Showed fine form in recent weeks. Won at Hamilton over 11f and placed twice subsequently. Not sure additional furlong will suit.

Ryeolliean: Up in trip and down in mark. Not impossible to show more under those conditions today but not entirely sure to stay the trip.

Chivers: Stays trip and beyond. Won two races this year. Drying ground over this trip and high enough mark could make life tough.

Tactical Strike: Best performance came on handicap debut, hasn’t shown much in five starts otherwise. Hard to fancy on form.

Verdict: I can only see Intense Tango and Hesketh Bank really good enough to win this, on form at least. With those rather unexposed three year olds you never quite know what you get but it is hard to see any of the others emerging as a potent winning candidate based on form and race conditions. Intense Tango is a pretty short favourite and there is clear evidence in the form book why. But I feel Hesketh Bank offers equally strong form. His Musselburgh success is the best form in the field, and while he is much higher in the mark now, it is not impossible that he can progress again. His latest effort at Ascot is excusable when nothing went for him and he raced awkwardly. If he can leave that performance behind, he should go really close today.

Hesketh Bank @ 5/1 Betfred

-NR-

Quick Tip - Monday 22nd September 2014

17.40 Kempton: Tides Reach @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Competitive race and the horses towards the head of the market are all very solid contenders, but they are not unbeatable and there are a couple of bigger prices in the field that could be interesting if you forgive them the odd poor run. Most interesting price wise is Tides Reach for me. If you forgive her her most recent abysmal performance, you can see a rather consistent and progressive animal, thriving on the AW/quick ground. The run at Ffos Las came on bottomless ground, so it's easy to see a reason why she didn't perform that day. She wasn't far beaten in a small field at Windsor before following an impressive win in another small field. She won at Kempton last year over 7f but one mile isn't an issue, and now back here on this surface on only her second start, she is an interesting runner. With James Doyle in the saddle she also has the best possible assistance today, and for all of that she looks to have a better chance than her big price suggests. 

PREVIEW: Group 3 Action at Gowran Park

15.55 Gowran Park: Denny Cordell Lavarack & Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Group 3) - Interesting contest with some excellent horses in the line-up. Dermto Weld's Brooch seems the likeliest winner on paper and is a short priced favourite to land her first Group win. This 3yo filly showed loads of promise on debut when winning a maiden at Galway and she followed up nicely in Listed company at Killarney last month. There is surely more to come and she is must rate a big runner in this field. However she won't have it easy. Consistent Group level performer Odeliz is fine form and has some big performance against her name this season. The nature of the track at Gowran Park might count slightly against her as she comes usually from off the pace, as well as the ground is not hundred percent ideal over this trip is my feeling. Yet she will be thereabouts on pure form. 

Regardez won a Listed race over 10f at Newcastle by a wide margin, and she followed up with another strong front-running performance York subsequently when she was beaten in 3rd a tight finish. That form looks really strong, and taking into account that Regardez is still in a phase where improvement is likely, she must be a big danger for all here today. Alive Alive Oh ran consistently well in recent weeks, without coming close to get her head in front. She didn't turn out to be the horse many thought she could be last year and on balance she has a good bit to find with a couple in this field. Akira was a bit unlucky in her latest runs and I feel she could win a Listed race over a mile, but this trip is a bit too far and the opposition too classy. Maggie Dalton finished strongly in a hot Curragh handicap in her latest start and she could be up to score at Listed level at some point, though it would be a major surprise if she is good enough today. Hard to fancy any of the other three remaining runners. 

Verdict: If Brooch can progress further, she might turn out too good for all her rivals in this field. However good horses are first to beat, and I feel that Regardez could have things all her way up on front, which will play into her hands as she stays up to 10f well and the nature of the track will favour her running style. She has excellent form to offer, which is strong enough to suggest that she has every chance to run a big race. 

Regardez @ 5/1 VC - 3pts win

PREVIEW: Pennsylvania Derby - The return of Chrome!

It's the return of California Chrome today. He came close to become the first Triple Crown winner in ages, but he failed at the final hurdle at Belmont, as we all know now. Things didn't go to plan from there on. Injury problems made life tough. But he is back now for an ambitious autumn campaign, which will culminate in a bid for glory in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Today his first run on his way to Santa Anita - the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby seems an ideal opportunity. But it won't be quite as easy. There are some serious rivals in the line-up. And there is the very valid question about Chrome's fitness. How well is he? Can he find back to his brilliant best after the injury worries? Might this trip be a bit sharp for him on his return against some seasoned and in-form horses? We all know how classy Chrome is, what serious performances he put in earlier this year. But this all counts for little today, when he has clearly some questions to answer. On the other hand, it is absolutely brilliant to see him back running. He is a racing celebrity and it's credit to him, his charisma and his enormous talent that the world is watching Parx today. 

California Chrome: Class act, won over this trip, Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner. Didn’t stay Belmont trip, injured afterwards, back after break now.

Candy Boy: Runner-up in West Virginia Derby lto. Decent performer on Grade level, without finding winning easy. Well beaten by Clifronia Chrome twice this year.

Protonico: Lightly raced Giant’s Causeway son. Constantly improving, won Grade 3 at this track lto, tries this trip for the second time in his career, finished 3rd on sole start but on pedigree no problem.

Bayern: Haskell winner when he got an easy lead. Impressive that day but couldn't follow up and when challenged for lead he is doing usually too much. Might not have his own way up on front here.

Noble Moon: Lightly raced, still improvement left and not completely out of it. Has stamina to prove.

Classic Giacnroll: Consistent decent performances this year, without winning. Went super close lto when runner-up to Protonico. Hasn’t fired over this trip yet but should be fine on pedigree.

Tapiture: Won West Virginia Derby lto, staying on strongly. Tough and consistent sort, in with an obvious chance on form.

C J’s Awesome: Front-runner, will challenge for lead and will force pace. Not up to this class.

Verdict: If California Chrome is 100% fit, well then he’ll be hard to beat. It's that simple. I can see him getting the perfect race, nicely set up by the likely front-runners Bayern and CJA - as they are likely to be racing for the lead. Chrome can sit behind and make his usual move coming off the home bend. What does he find then is the question?! I believe his target is the Breeders Cup Classic, so his trainer will have left something to work on – mind you this is only a Grade 2 today. There is a general question mark over his fitness after a long season and recent injury problems. Therefore I think we can take him on, considering he is such a short price.

I do really like the look of the lightly raced Protonico. Improving all the time, won at Graded level for the first time lto when scoring in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes over 1m. That day he didn’t have an easy race, finding himself short of room on his way around the home at a crucial stage, and again when approaching the home straight. He shouldn't have had a chance to catch the leader at this point, he should have been finished. but somehow he got out into the clear and ran down the eventual runner-up, who looked moments before like a 1.01 shot on the in-running market on Betfair! He is clearly a seriously talented horse and while he tried today's trip only once before, in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, when beaten in a photo by two horses that came from off the pace, he shouldn't have a problem with the trip at all, as on pedigree he’ll get it alright. With more improvement to come, Protonico is capable of running a huge race for a big price. 

An even bigger price long shot is Classic Giacnroll. He doesn't look too likely to get his head in front against some top class opposition here. But it shouldn't be forgotten that he didn’t always got the best of runs in the past and his most recent performance, the runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Protonico is noteworthy. A repeat would see him going close in my mind. That day he produced a lovely change of gear when slipping through on the inside approaching the home straight, while coming from almost last to look the winner until 50y out. He was probably a bit idling and didn't see the eventual winner coming. He tries the 9f trip again today, hasn't done too well over it in the past on pure form, but he should get it on pedigree and might be the one staying one from behind for an upset, as the likely quick pace should give a horse from off the pace a chance.

Protonico @ 12/1 – 1pt win Bet365

Classic Giacnroll @ 33/1 1pt win Bet365

Newbury: Looking Good a good thing!

16.05 Newbury: Class 3 Nursery, 7f - Polarisation: Won Ayr maiden nicely drawing well clear inside final furlong. Things went too quickly nto in hot handicap. Should be suited by additional furlong. Ground unknown. 

Silver Quay: Good winner at Salisbury, Competitive in much higher class lto, fine performance. Not sure if drop in trip will suit, but also not impossible to do so on soft ground to suit. 

Harlequin Striker: Got finally off the mark in maiden lto at Epsom. Overcoming wide draw and won well from front. Opening mark looks fair. Soft ground a question mark but looks big and scopy. 

L'Etacq: Won 5f Handicap at Brighton, not up to it subsequently. Hard to fancy here. 

Little Palaver: Still maiden, decent efforts in all starts, needs to improve on first Handicap start. Mark looks fair. 

Looking Good: Fair maiden form, improved for step up in trip to 7f at Sandown, came with big run approaching final furlong when badly hampered. Deserves another chance of 1lb lower.

Verdict: Hannon's Silver Quay seems the pick on form and might well turn out too good for this lot, however the drop in trip might count against him. Polarisation is better than when seen last time, the ground is a question mark though. Overall it looks an open enough race and that gives the bottom weight Looking Good a chance to feature strongly. This Makfi filly was unlucky on her latest run when she was coming with a strong run just to be badly hampered in the closing stages. The mark looks fair enough and she could easily turn out to be better than the mark of 70, what she is rated currently. 

Looking Good @ 11/2 Ladbrokes – 2pts win

PREVIEW: Doonside Cup (Listed)

15.15 Ayr: Doonside Cup (Listed), 10f - Abseil: Progressive early in the season, culminating in strong Epsom success over 1m 1/2f. Three rather disappoint performances subsequently, looked outpaced and not up for it. Need to improve to be competitive here over new trip. 10f looks possible on pedigree. 

Gabrial: Quick ground will suit, decent recent run over 12f at Chester. Improved nicely from 4f out and looked in with big chance but outstayed in final furlong. Has never been placed over anything further than 9f but ran in hot raced against excellent rivals, and been largely competitive. 

Mirsaale: Won 10f Handicap as 3yo, not improved over winter and poor this season. Tried over further, drop in trip might help to find back to something like form. 

Sennockian Star: Good, consistent handicapper over the years. 10F and ground suit, won at Ayr before. Drops in trip after two runs over further. Need to be back to best, to have chance to land first Listed race. 

Sky Hunter: Progressive 3yo in France, 3rd behind Intello in French Derby, won Listed race over 12f subsequently. Didn't show anything in two starts this year. Needs to be improved after break. However remains of interest as he's potentially the most talented sort in this field. 

Treasure The Ridge: Hugely progressive lately. Won couple of races on the bounce, big class 2 handicap recently, coming from impossible position. Surely possible to progress further but loads to find on ratings and this much tough assignment on the weights. 

Mutatis Mutandis: Only won maiden as a 2yo, decent performance in Newbury Listed race but looked out off depth lto. Needs to prove that she is good enough. 

Verdict: If Sky Hunter could find back to his best 3yo form, he'll be obviously hard to beat in this field. But there are plenty of question marks and his current price is fair at best, so makes sense to take him on. Only one horse really makes appeal to do so in my mind: Gabrial: Clear return to form recently at Chester, just faded in final furlong over trip stretching his stamina. Drop in trip clearly to suit, and while he hasn't a good record over 10f, I've no doubt he gets the trip and if you look through his forms, he has come against some excellent horses, but won nicely a Handicap at Meydan and is consistent on Listed/premium handicap level. He finds conditions to suit and should give the favourite plenty to think about. He's the value in the race in my mind.

Gabrial @ 5/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win

NAP - Thursday 18th September 2014

19.10 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m - Pretty interesting handicap for three year olds. Plenty of promising types in the race. The obvious one is Godolphin's Holiday Magic. Improved with every start, and off the mark with a fine front-running performance over course and distance a fortnight ago. Opening mark seems fair and more improvement to come. It has to be said, that he had pretty much the run of the race since he was in front. I kind of like Clive Brittain's Surety. Slightly exposed and not really close to win yet, but shaped with promise and with talented 5lb claimer on board, in with a chance. Kubeba on his handicap debut is not out of it either due to a fair mark, but needs to find improvement to turn the form around with Holiday Magic from his recent maiden. 

In the same race there was one hugely eye-catching performance though, which came from Luca Cumani's Frederic. He has a decent pedigree, is related to plenty of winners, and shaped with an awful lot of promise on his first All-Weather start. He was quite unlucky not to finish closer than the 1¼ down in 3rd in the end. He was stuck in traffic once the field approached the home turn and was badly bumped around 2f out. He got eventually into the clear and finished super strongly under a pretty light hands and heels ride. Frederic is bred to stay further and I'm sure he will need a step up to 10f rather sooner than later. But for now a mile should fine, considering that the opening mark off 73 looks very lenient. With a clear run, I do fancy him to turn the form around with Holiday Magic. 

Frederic @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

-------

It's not news anymore but still something to celebrate - our last selection, Ansgar - advised below at 7/1, won the Park Stakes at Doncaster in fine style from the front. A trip to Dubai could be next on the agenda form him now.

PREVIEW: Park Stakes (Group 2)

Park Stakes (Group 2) - Es Que Love: Excellent winner at Goodwood over 7f, but the way race was run did suit him to bits, as it was a pure sprint finish. Consistent Group performer in general,and in with chance if they don't go a mad gallop. But pace seems to be on here and that is big negative over this trip for EQL so does the 4lb penalty.

Aljamaaheer: Group winner over 1m and runner-up in Queen Anne last year, reverted to sprinting this season and finished strong third in Diamond Jubilee. Disappointing in JulyCup. Blinkers of, CP on. If he settles, he should run his race over trip to suit. Pace might work in his favour, new headgear needs to help him though.

Ansgar: Progressed into Group performer this season over 7f. Winner of two Group 3's. Latest at Goodwood. Likes to be up with pace to use his stamina. Can step up in Grade and quick ground will suit. 

Gregorian: Only beaten by a tight margin in G2 Hungersford Stakes last month, excellent third in July Cup earlier. Loves trip and clear chance on form. Drying ground slight worry as he usually is best with bit give in the ground and quick home straight is against him.

Penitent: Front-runner, not so good this season since winning Group 3 in May. Needs plenty of juice in the ground usually and up against it here.

Professor: Third behind Ansgar at Goodwood last month, but fair and square beaten that day and there isn't much indicating at the moment that he is good enough to land this.

Cable Bay: Developed into consistent Group performer as a juvenile, seen only once this year when well beaten last month. Should improve with that run under the belt but hard to fancy here.

That Is The Spirit: Listed race winner over 7f this year, two decent efforts since then. Can't see him good enough here, despite WFO allowance. 

Verdict: The step up in trip does potentially suit Aljamaaheer. If he can find back to his best, he hasobvious claims. Gregorian is in with a big shout on form too. I do wonder if the ground turned against him though. Value of the race islate improving Ansgar though. Winner of two Group 3 races over 7f this year, the ground will be in his favour and he has a big chance to follow up on his recent Goodwood success.

Ansgar @ 7/1 Coral - 2pts win

PREVIEW: May Hill Stakes (Group 2)

15.15 Doncaster: May Hill Stakes (Group 2) - Agnes Stewart: Won Fairyhouse maiden easily almost on bridle.Followed up with fine 2nd in strong Group 3 when inconvenienced by eventual winner right in front of him in home straight, changed legs several times in closing stages. Step up to 1mto suit very much on pedigree. Form works out extremely well.

Alonsoa: Won first two career starts,including Listed race. Disappointing in Group 3 lto but soft groundmight not suited at all as pedigree also rather pointing towardsquick ground. Nicely bred out of 1.000 Guineas 3rd andopen to improvement over new trip.

Astrelle: Progressive handicapper, notdisgraced in Group 3 lto. Needs to improve further for new trip.

Banzari: Decent debut when strongstaying on 2nd from off the pace. Step up in trip to suiton pedigree.

Bonnie Grey: Genuine and tough, good 2nd in Group 3 lto. Step up in trip not likely to suit on pedigree.

Muraaqaba: Won nicely on debut, unluckyat Ascot when hampered in closing stages when making move. ExcellentListed win lto. Clearly precocious and smart. Can get the trip andsets high standard here.

Shagah: Decent Goodwood maiden winner,couldn't follow up in Conditions Stakes at Ascot and plenty to findon form. 

Surpreme Occasion: Good Handicap winner at Newcastle and strong performance of revised mark at York lto. Thisbig step up in class, more to come over new trip tough.

Verdict: Muraaqaba looks a rock solid favourite. New trip and ground are not quite sure to suit and I fancyAlonsoa to be able to turn the form around. She is progressive, hatedthe soft ground lto, but with a quicker going and the additionalfurlong very much to suit, she is one to take very seriously here.The Irish raider Agnes Stewart is another one I quite like. Extremelystrong performance in a very good Group 3 at Leopardstown is probablythe strongest form of all in this field. She bred to stay further, sothe new trip will very much suit.

Alonsoa @ 11/2 Sportingbet – 2pts win

Agnes Stewart @ 7/2 Sportingbet –3pts win