PREVIEW: San Antonio Handicap (Grade 2)

Branded as the re-match", the San Antonio Handicap is certainly a spicy affair given the clash of the two big guns of US racing, Shared Belief and California Chrome. The latter one as the excellent Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes winner, who didn't quite stay the Belmont trip but redeemed himself with an fine third in the Breeders Cup Classic as well as a subsequent Grade 1 win on turf. Chrome looked a very ready colt throughout his three year old career, who has had already 16 starts, and while I believe that he should be capable to run good races this year, I'm wondering how much improvement he has left, or if he is even capable to maintain the pretty high standard he set last season. We'll see. Connections are positive and want to bring him to Dubai and Europe. 

I'm surprised to see Shared Belief not being clear favourite in the betting. This brilliant gelding had an outstanding 3yo career. He missed the Triple Crown series but improved throughout the middle of the season, winning three Grade 1's including the Pacific Classic, when beating Toast Of New York, who should finish subsequently runner-up in the controversial Breeders Cup Classic. A race that was lost for Shared Belief right at the start, when heavily bumped twice within a couple of seconds, in fact almost knocked off completely. He did well to finish 4th eventually and would have gone much closer without all the trouble early on. What a hugely talented horse this Shared Belief is - albeit a rather smallish stature - proved his last start in 2014 when he took on some top class sprinters, dropping down to an inadequate 7f trip, yet winning the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes. He'll be much more home over the 9f trip today.

Can Hoppertunity spoil the party? Bob Baffert's four year old missed the Derby due to injury, but has nicely progressed, won the Grade 1 Clark Handicap and started into the new year with a fine success in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes here at Santa Anita. He looks big and scopy, more potentially to come, but isn't the quickest as it appears and more of a battler, then a hugely talented individual. He's a nice price, and I feel tempted for that reason and may slap myself if he does win indeed. But effectively, I just don't see him as a talented individual as Shared Belief is, who should simply be a better horse. Also there is the additional fact that Hoppertunity prefers a softer, deeper dirt, like at Churchill where he won the Clark. And while his most recent success came here at SA, his Beyer rating wasn't as impressive. I believe he will have to bring his absolute best to the table to beat the two big guns today, and since it is rather unknown if he can produce that here at this track, I'll leave him alone and stick with my initial selection, which is Shared Belief, for whom form & talent speaks, and who looks overpriced. I'm pretty convinced that he improves past California Chrome and will set the record straight today. 

Shared Belief @ 7/4 PP - 10 pts win