PREVIEW - Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3)

14.55 Haydock - Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) - 12 furlongs: Considering that this is only a Group 3, one has to say it is an excellent renewal of the race. A deep eight runner field, with proven Group horses in the line-up - that is good to see as it is not always the case with these kind of races, as we know all too well. Favourite Hillstar is a worthy favourite on form. He couldn't win a single race this season yet, but his last three performances are all strong form. Close runner-up behind Cavalryman at Newmarket in the Princess of Wales's rates a big performance. My slight worry with him is though, that the drop in trip is not really in his favour. I feel he lacks the speed over the shorter distance and that 12f is probably his optimum. Class can see him through but he certainly need this to be a real stamina test. Yes, he has won over 7f as a juvenile, but all his best form comes over way further, and over 10f he hasn't won in five starts to date. 

True Story was one of the Derby fancies after winning the Listed Feilden Stakes in April. He couldn't fulfill the promise in all his subsequent starts and it is hard to say what we can expect from him today. If he can find back to his early season form, then he is in with a chance of course, even more so as the drop in class should be a big help. I find him hard to fancy on recent form. 

His stable mate Vancouverite makes more appeal. He was an excellent 3yo, with the highlights of last seasons campaign a success in the Group 2 Guillaume D'Ornano Stakes at Deauville. He clearly isn't regressing now a four year old. His form in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan earlier this year, is a very strong one. He finished a strongly staying on 2nd behind Vercingetorix, who subsequently boosted the form with strong performances in top class company. Vancouverite didn't like the Tapeta surface in the Dubai World Cup, but his UK comeback at Newbury recently showed that he is one to take very seriously today. Back after a break, he travelled like the winner for most parts of the race, however not getting quite the clearest of runs, until in the clear from 2f out, when he made then strong progress. He just failed to peg back the eventual winner, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him coming on a good bit from that run, and being able to turn the form around with Amralah. 

Amralah himself is progressive and not to underestimate. He surly will be seen up on front and if he would get a soft lead, he could be well able to exploit that. He will have to improve a bit though, to be really seen as a major contender here. If he is classy enough to do so, remains to be seen. Educate is an interesting runner. So progressive last season, which culminated in success in the Cambridgeshire, he proved subsequently that he is a pattern class horse. Decent performances at Meydan on Group level and two okay performances back in the UK, left the impression that there could be still a bit more to come. He had a tough assignment in his recent Handicap start, so he might have a better chance to go well in this Group 3 today. However it has to be seen if he is quite up to the task to win this. I give him the benefit of the doubt, and would like to think a good run is on the cards, without having the urge to back him today. 

Nabucco is a likable sort. Reliable and with good form. He finished a fine third behind Amralah at Newbury recently. I feel he'd be more interesting and in with a better chance with a bit more rain. Danadana has Group winning form, so can't be discounted, however recent form doesn't suggest that today is be an easy task. Three year old Ayrad will be seen to better affect dropping in class, but has still an awful lot to find to be competitive in this strong Group 3. 

Verdict: There are some doubts about the main contenders in the betting, which brings Amralah in with a decent chance to run a big race, following his strong recent success. However I fancy Vancouverite to turn the form around. He was a shade unlucky that day, being beaten by a short margin and It wouldn't be a surprise to see him improving from that run. Ground and trip are fine for him, he has strong form in his book and seems a rather big price, taking all into consideration.

Vancouverite @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

NAP Of The Day - Thursday 7th of August 2014

16.20 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 10f - From a handicapping point of view this race should evolve around the two three year olds. The short favourite Ejadah seems progressive and won extremely well at Haydock last month. She is subsequently nine pounds up for that performance but this might not be the end for her. 

However she has to be taken on trust to stay the 10f trip at a track like Brighton where you definitely need to stay to be able to survive the final furlong up the hill. Ejadah has won only over 1m so far, and didn't seem to get quite home in her sole 10f start. Her pedigree also isn't too supportive in that sense. Another question mark is the ground. Her best performances came with cut in the ground. Can she transform her best to the quick surface that she is likely to encounter today? 

The other three year old in the line-up, Sequined, makes plenty of appeal. She was a good deal beaten in her most recent outing at Newmarket over 1m in 3rd, but she stayed on well. The step up to 10f will definitely suit, as she has won at Lingfield over this trip before, and her pedigree is clearly pointing in this direction. She is in fact nicely bred, sired by a Dubai World Cup winner, out of an Irish Oaks runner-up. So the trip should be fine, the quick ground not an issue and with only four starts to her name to date, on her second turf start, there is plenty more to come. With the weight for age allowance, Sequined must have a big chance to win in this field.

From the older horses, Yojojo makes a bit of appeal of her reduced mark. She goes well at Brighton, but has still to give allot of weight away to her younger rivals. Who's That Chick can make use of her featherweight and is in excellent form lately, while Taro Tywod is hard to fancy. 

Verdict: Sequined has an excellent opportunity to take her young career to the next level. Conditions are sure to suit and the weights are in her favour. She is a nice price considering to have so much going for herself and I feel she should be at the top of the market. 

Sequined @ 5/2 Betfred - 4pts win

PREVIEW - Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3)

19.30 Leopardstown: Ballyroan Stakes G3, 12f - Some good racing action over in Ireland today. The feature at Dublin's Leopardstown racetrack is a Group 3 over 1m 4f. Ground conditions are described as yielding, soft in places at the moment, but with warm weather and loads of sun, the ground is expected to dry out further.

Five runners are declared for this event, and current favourite is the Aiden O'Brien trained Eye Of The Storm. Trading at around 7/4 this morning, one has to wonder if this four year colt would be as short in the betting as he currently is, if he wouldn't be trained by Ireland's leading trainer. He wouldn't, is the simple answer.

A very fine three year old, who seemed to develop into a high class stayer, Eye Of The Storm couldn't confirm the promise in three starts this year. While there have been some excuses along the line, and it has to be stated that EOTS is surely a capable horse, but far from a top class animal. Also with the ground drying out, I wonder if the conditions are really to suit him. His best performance to date came clearly in the Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day over two miles. All that says, he is a difficult sort to know what to expect today and therefore he is easy to oppose for me on the basis of a way to short price. 

Money is coming for the John Oxx runner Streetcar To Stars, and it is easy to see why. This son of Sea The Stars is lightly raced and progressive, with an impressive physique and look. He looks, big strong with plenty of scope. He was unlucky in the Listed King George V Cup in June here at Leopardstown, which was only his second start, as well as the first one after more than 200 days off the track, and his first try over 12f. He didn't have an easy race that day. He fought with his jockey throughout the first half of the race, got then got stuck in traffic from 3f out when turning for home. He didn't get a run until late as he was short of room on the inside until almost the final furlong marker. He finished strongly though and almost got up on the line. STS made amends in a Curragh maiden, back over 10f then. He made all, was hard challenged from 2f out but drew clear in the closing stages, indicating stamina is his strengths. Up over 12f today then, he clearly gets the trip, has course distance form on similar ground, and is sure to improve further. He needs to learn to settle, but with more experience, that will come and he for all of that he is the most interesting runner in this field.

Chance to Chance is a progressive handicapper in care of Jim Bolger. A four time winner this year already, he can be competitive over a variety of trips and is versatile if it comes to ground conditions too. He finished third in a conditions race at Naas recently, but the trip was a bit on the short side that day and today will suit him better. If he is quite up to this class is another question, but with the right form in the book, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him right there when it matters. Aiden O'Brien's second string El Salvador is a consistent sort too, but might be just below what is required in a Group 3 and he is hard to fancy for the win. 

The only filly in the race, Roheryn progressed nicely this year when switched to the turf. She won the Leopardstown Listed race that was mentioned earlier, when Streetcar To Stars was agonisingly denied in a tight finish. Roheryn had undeniably the run of the race that day but she also demonstrated that is equipped with guts as well as talent as she quickened nicely coming around the home bend, put a bit of ground between her and the rest of the field and then held on gamely in the closing stages. There is no reason why she shouldn't be able to improve further, and that gives her a very fair shot in this race.

Verdict: The short O'Brien favourite has to be opposed as the 5/2 for Streetcar To Stars look good value. He should be the favourite according to what he showed so far in his short career and with further improvement expected. He'll be hard to beat and might have just the bit more scope than Roheryn, who did beat him two months ago over course and distance. However the filly has to be taken serious too with conditions to suit. Her price tag looks generous too. 

Streetcar To Stars @ 5/2 Coral - 4pts win

Roheryn @ 8/1 Boylesports - 2pts win

Betting Selections - Sunday 3rd of August 2014

15.05 Chester - Queensferry Stakes (Listed): The field decimated through the going change and now down to seven runners, seems quite an open race. Favourite Ertijaal looked promising as a juvenile and when he returned racing in spring this year with two impressive performances on the all-Weather. He didn't get the trip in the 2.000 Guineas and probably did too much too early in the Bunbury Cup at Newbury. He remains an interesting prospect and the drop in trip might help him to settle. Despite his decent recent performance on similar ground, I'm not convinced that he can show his best with cut in the ground, so the rain must count against him, even though the track will probably very much suit. On all that evidence I need to oppose him at his quite short price tag. Dinkum Diamond is ground independent an won a Listed race over 6f in soft conditions last season. He ran with credit in the Group 3 Coral Charge the last time and the drop in class will help him. I still believe the shorter 5f is more ideal for him, but on form he must have a fine chance here. However what counts against him is the weight. He gives it away all around and that doesn't make it an easy task. Ballista goes well at Chester but prefers a quicker surface ideally, there is also no too much in his form that suggests that is he is quite up to this standard required to win this at the moment. 

The only remaining filly in the race, Body And Soul makes more appeal. She was too keen in a Group 3 at Newcastle last time out, but ran with loads of credit in her two outings in hot class 2 Handicaps before. She is ground independent, but her best performance to date came in Listed company over 6f in soft conditions. That says this test today should suit, so should the sharp track. 

Bommerang Bob is a consistent sort, but his winning record is poor. The conditions of this particular race today quite suit though, and another good run is likely. If that is enough to prevail is another question. Intransigent is better on the All-weather and this test here seems unlikely to suit him. Three year old Coulsty is a Listed winner, however over 7f on quick ground. It remains to be seen if he can show his best over shorter at this sharp track with underfoot conditions. 

Verdict: Hard to predict what happens. Ertijaal has the class if he can show his best over the shorter trip with cut in the ground, but the value seems proven filly Body And Soul. She is a Listed winner over this trip and ground and the track could suit perfectly. She must have a big chance and seems a big price. --- Body And Soul @ 13/2 William Hill - 3pts win

16.45 Chester - Class 4 Handicap: Another small field but also a very competitive little Handicap. Head of the market is English Summer, who is in excellent form lately and loves this track. He won back in June over course and distance in similar ground conditions and was not beaten far over bit further recently at Haydock. He has an obvious chance and might be able to pull out a bit more. His mark off 80 doesn't make it an easy task, nonetheless he is capable of running very much to this rating of course. 

The only three year old in the race, Notarised is another who is in with a big chance. He likes to lead and ran with credit in his recent starts. This sharp track can suit, even though he still has to prove that he really can stay thus far. On the weights he is an obvious chance if he can hit the mark off his current mark over this trip. Cool Sky returns to the level for a new yard. New trainer Ian Williams has his string in fine form and ha a 20% strike rate at this track in the last twelve month, which makes the five year old gelding an interesting runner. He did well enough over obstacles and was a progressive horse on the flat before too. He won a couple of races on the All-Weather his last start on the flat last June was a successful one over 14f of a mark off 81. Potentially there is still a bit of improvement left and he could be a bit better than his current mark. The sharp track should suit and with loads of pace in the race, he might find ideal conditions today. Spanish Plume loves the track, but the ground is a major worry. Rio's Rosanna is difficult to assess on recent form, however if she is fit and well, she wouldn't be without a chance. 

Verdict: The two towards the head of the market have excellent chances, but further improvement is already reflected in their prices. Cool Sky in contrast could still be a bit better now back on the flat and with conditions in favour might explore his current mark. For all of that he seems too big in the betting market. --- Cool Sky @ 13/2 William Hill - 2pts win

16.25 Newbury - Class 4 Handicap: The rain has arrived at Newbury and has shaken up the field. Plenty of non-runners and not too many in the line-up who appear to be well suited to conditions or well handicapped. veteran Cheveton could be in with a decent shot on old form, as he loves the mud, is a distance specialist and won at this track before. However the lack of a recent run as well as the current mark are worrying factors. Favourite Random Success is still quite lightly raced and drops significantly in class. This is much more appropriate to what she has achieved in the past and her penultimate performance gives her a chance. However she hasn't a single form on soft ground, so she to be taken on trust to relish the conditions. 

Top weight Exceptionelle hasn't won on turf yet but has some good form in better races to her name. Hood is back and cheek-pieces on for the first time. If that can bring out some improvement, she can run well. Secret Missile and Steel Rain both have form on soft ground and can't be discounted with conditions to suit. Rebecca Romero was in good order in recent weeks and the drop in trip to 5f should see her competitive. Ground conditions should be fine, however a career best is required. Talented Cam Hardie in the saddle is worth every single pound of his 5lb claim and that will give Rebecca Romero a very fair chance to win off her current mark. Hardie and trainer Coackley have also formed a very fruitful partnership in recent weeks. So a good run is definitely on the cards. Veteran Ziggy ran well in the last number of weeks. A good placed effort at Nottingham and his runner-up effort at Windsor give him a good chance today. Three year old Stellarta isn't entirely out of this. She has to show a bit more though in this competitive company on ground she isn't completely sure to relish. 

Verdict: Competitive in its own way, it is hard to be too excited about any horse. Steel Rain appears to be a very big price and could run into the money, while a couple of others have the ability to feature strongly. Most appeal on price makes Rebecca Romero to me though. Despite a high mark, she has plenty going for her with conditions in favour and a top apprentice on board. This is a race that could see her run to a career best. --- Rebecca Romero @ 7/1 William Hill - 2pts win

Betting Preview - Whitney Handicap (Grade 1)

Win and your're in! That's the motto of the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga tonight. The winner of the race is guaranteed to run in the Breeders Cup Classic. So it's no surprise to see a competitive line-up for a contest that pays almost $500k to the winner too! 

Red-hot favourite Palace Malice is expected to follow up on his four straight wins this year. He's the all dominating sort in this Classic division and despite top weight, should be tough to beat. He won the Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont with authority back in June on his most recent start, despite not having the clearest of runs in the closing stages. However he has to be at his best today in this field, that is for sure. He has all the right tools, but his short price tag doesn't appeal too much to me. 

Front-running Moreno is expected to lead the field around today. He has only won twice in 19 career starts, but the track should suit his running-style and he looked improved in his latest start. If he can find back to his fine 3yo form from last year, he can be a big runner. Money spinner Will Take Charge has banked over $3.7 million in his racing career, that says he is an ultra consistent sort. He was a close runner-up in last years Breeders Cup classic, has Grade 1 form to his name and won a Grade 2 as his sole success in 2014. He couldn't win in his last two starts and need to find back to his best though. Big weight doesn't make things an easy task, class is there though. Current price looks fair. Departing won on his seasonal reappearance in fine style and followed up with a good 3rd in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. He needs to find a bit more but further improvement is not impossible, and that makes him an interesting runner. 

Multiple Grade 3 winner Romansh was a very honorable third behind Palace Malice in the Metropolitan Handicap. He didn't stay 10f in his subsequent start, so the drop in trip should suit and a good run is one the cards and he has fair place claims. Surely winning claims must have Itsmyluckyday. He won three on the bounce and seemed clearly improved this year. A career best in his latest in the grade 3 Salvator Mile must give him a big chance to feature strongly today. He made an impressive move before the approach of the home bend and won on the bridle in emphatic fashion eventually. The second and third finishers in that race finished first and second in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup subsequently, so the form looks strong. He has to bring this form now into Grade 1 company, but with his progressive profile he might well turn out be the biggest danger to Palace Malice. 

Last Gunfire is the mount of Javier Catellano and must enter considerations if he can bring his A-game to the table. Disappointing in his latest, but he made an excellent winning seasonal comeback before, and won the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup last year. Pace might be an issue, but he might be staying on for a place. It's hard to make a case for veteran prayer For Relief and Golden Ticket. 

Verdict: Favourite Palace Malice is holding the key to the outcome of the race. If he gets a clear run and runs to his best form, he'll be very hard to beat. But we know that racing doesn't always work that way. So looking for a bit of value, there are some alternatives. Last Gunfire or Moreno seem to be decent each-way material, while Romansh and Departing aren't entirely out of this either with place claims to their name too. The 14/1 for Itsmyluckyday appear to be outstanding value though and he gets the nod from me. His recent form is excellent, he seems still progressing, and should be tactically in a good position to too far off the pace at a track that favours the speed often. It's hard to see him out off the first three and he could be the one who gives Palace Malice a run for the money. --- Itsmyluckyday @ 14/1 VC - 1pt e/w

Nassau Stakes - Race Preview

This years renewal of the Nassau Stakes is far from vintage, considering that this is one of the biggest Group 1's for fillies in the English racing calendar. It's a shame that only seven runners go to post. A race prestigious as this, deserves better. So do punters. Seven starters hardly encourage betting, as it isn't really feasible  to have an each-way bet. Also the quality of horse is a shade disappointing this year, given that there is not a single Group one winner in the line-up.

The question is why is that? Ground is nice - safe fast ground. It's a beautiful track, on a prestigious race day of Glorious Goodwood. Well, we all know the answer: There is too much racing, in particular there are too many Group 1 races in Europe, which means connections can duck away from challenges and simply go next week somewhere else for an "easy" race. It's sad. Group ones should be the pinnacle of the racing calender, each one with the prestige of a Champions League final. But if you have too many of them, they become a race like so many others. It's nothing special anymore to win a Group 1. Something has to be done about this fact - but that is for another day. 

I feel there is no outstanding filly in the race, which opens it for an outsider to feature strongly. Aiden O'Brien's Venus de Milo is a rock solid favourite nonetheless. The four year old has a couple of nice performances to her name. She returned to form in the Munster Oaks at Cork earlier this year, a Group 3 on quick ground over 12 furlongs. She followed up with another strong performance in the Pretty Polly Stakes (10f), when she finished an honorable runner-up behind Thistle Bird. However she was also beaten fair and square, and the feeling is, that she is better over 12f and is vulnerable over the shorter trip. I expect her to be up with the pace, to ensure it'll be a stamina test. Venus de Milo must have a good chance to win this, but I think she is priced up as fair as it gets. 

French raider Narniyn has very strong form to offer. A multiple Group winner over 10f, she finished a creditable fourth in the Grand Prix Saint Cloud recently. All her form comes on soft ground though, so it's unknown how she'll cope with the much quicker conditions today. She'll be a big runner if she can bring her A-game to the table in these conditions. Mango Diva was a good winner of the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes at the Curragh two weeks ago, which was a below par renewal in my mind, though. She likes the ground and the trip is perfect, so should go well. Hard to see any value in her price however, which also applies to Narniyn. Lightly raced Sultanina drops in trip and tackles quick ground for the first time. That might well be the game changer for her, yet it's hard to be too enthusiastic about it. Amazing Maria was a good and progressive juvenile. She won a Group 3 over 7f, and was thrown into deep water right into the Epsom Oaks on her three year old comeback run. With stamina doubts over her head, she finished last out of 17 that day. The drop in trip should help but even ten furlongs isn't sure to suit. 

Lustrous was a big disappointment in the Irish Oaks. She couldn't confirm her strong run in the Ribblesdale Stakes, when she chased home Bracelet. She won won on Listed level over a mile before, so the drop to 10f from the Oaks trip shouldn't pose too much of a problem, however she looked like a stayer on her Ascot run as well as on pedigree. Recent poor run is a worry too. If she can find back to her Royal Ascot form, she has a chance to feature though and I wouldn't give up hope on her. But it's a risky proposition. 

John Gosden's second string Eastern Belle got finally off the mark at the fifth time asking in a Listed race at Newbury. She was a bit unlucky in a couple of races in the past, but at Newbury everything came finally together. She was very gutsy when ridden well up with the pace, under pressure from 3f out, she never surrendered and came clear inside the final furlong. That performance over 10f and good to firm ground must give her a chance here today. Obviously she needs to improve a good deal to make the step from a Listed winner to be competitive in a Group 1, but as outlined before, this race is far a vintage renewal and it's not impossible that Eatern Belle can find the improvement required to be a big runner. She probably will like to be right up with the pace, and Joe Fanning on board is the perfect pilot for that kind of task. 

Verdict: Venus De Milo seems a solid favourite, who has fine form in the book and could finally win a deserved Group 1. However, she is opposable over this trip. It looks anyone can win this race if on a good day, but the most value seems to lie in Eastern Belle in my mind. Potentially there is more improvement to come on her third start over 10f, with winning form on quick ground, she is not out of this. --- Eastern Belle @ 20/1 Bet365 - 1pt win  

The Big Race Preview - 2014 King George

Saturdays King George is a race as exciting as it can get. While the status of the race has suffered a bit in the last couple of years in terms of status and importance in the racing calender, this years renewal clearly shapes as a real cracker - thanks to an ultra competitive line-up. One has only to see that we have two recent Royal Ascot winners, an Oaks winner, the current Eclipse winner, a Breeders Cup winner, a Grand Prix De Paris winner, an Irish Derby winner and a favourite who seems to finally fulfil his potential.

Yet I hear people saying this is not a vintage King George, because it lacks a "true champion". I couldn't agree less and feel it isn't fair towards the horses that are due to run on Saturday. Because: This race is full of champions! Okay, there is no Frankel or Sea The Stars in the line-up, but this years renewal must be still one of the most competitive ones in recent history! It is great to see that trainers and connections don't duck away from the challenge, as it happens so often in flat racing. This time we have keen connections though, who want to let the best compete against the best. It should be spectacular, and we should enjoy it.

Overview of the runners:

Flintshire, 12/1 - Winner of last years Grand Prix De Paris, subsequently slightly below par, finished 2nd in Prix Niel, no chance in Arc, did well when 2nd behind Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup at Epsom last month, but disappointing when beaten a short favourite in the Grand Prix Saint-Cloud three weeks ago. Ground is key for him, he'll relish the sound surface as his worst performances came all with cut in the ground. Perception is that he still has a bit to find in Group 1 level against very strong opposition.

Leitir Mor, 200/1 - Won a Group 3 at Leopardstown over 7f last year, since then often with pace maker duties equipped and therefore no chance in most races. Same fate likely here again.

Magician, 11/2 - Aiden O'Brien's sole starter was an exceptional three year old. Winner of the Dee Stakes, the Irish 2.000 Guineas and later the Breeders Cup Turf, piping The Fugue on the line. Since then in and out in 2014. Not good enough at Meydan, beat Parish Hall in a Curragh Group 3 over 10f on his comeback run at Irish soil. Not able to confirm this in two subsequent Group 1's when he had to settle for second behind Noble Mission in the Tattersalles Gold Cup and the Prince of Wales's behind The Fugue. Surely a very solid chance in the King George as the highest rated horse in the field. He gets 12f but probably is better suited to a strongly run 10f. So or so, he has to run to his very best to win this. He didn't seem to progress as a four year old and there might be one or two here capable of improving past him. 

Mukhadram, 12/1 - Surprise winner of the Coral Eclipse earlier this month, when he was in the right position and all well fancied rivals didn't quite get the run of the race in the same way. He quickened nicely and stayed on strongly to win with two lengths to spare to Trading Leather. A deserved Group 1 after he came short on a couple of occasions. He'll relish ground conditions, however question mark is the trip as he does try 12f for the first time. He is not a sure stayer and won't get his own way in front either. A strong pace is expected with other horses likely to press for the lead. That all counts against him, on the other hand he is a very reliable, solid sort. 

Telescope, 9/4 - A hype horse as a to and three year old, when he was unable to fulfil the promise throught his classic season, though. He won the Great Voltigeur but flopped in three Group 3's throughout the season. Beaten twice at the beginning of the new season, he suddenly showed dramatic improvement for the step up to 12f and quick ground. He won the Hardwicke Stakes in those kind of conditions at Royal Ascot last month in runaway fashion and finally seems to become the horse many thought he would be in his classic season. On the basis of this most recent performance, he goes as favourite into the King George and with quick ground expected, it isn't impossible that he can improve further on only his third start over 12f. For all of that, he is an obvious chance. 

Trading Leather, 14/1 - Ultra consistent sort who loves fast ground. Won the Irish Derby last year and confirmed that performance with subsequent placed efforts in strong and competitive races, like second placed efforts behind Novellist in the the King George and Declaration Of War in the Juddmonte International. He was a rather disappointing odds-on favourite on his seasonal comeback at Newmarket, when beaten in third, but presented himself clearly improved in the Coral Eclipse when he finished runner-up behind Mukhadram. He had the run of the race but didn't cope with the speed of the eventual winner. The step up in trip to 12f seems logical and on his beloved quick ground he shouldn't have a problem to stay. A good pace would help him to settle. He should run his race yet again, if that is enough to win, is debatable. 

Eagle Top, 6/1 - Supplemented at a cost of £75,000 after he win the King Edward VII Stakes in impressive style at Royal Ascot last month. The lightly raced John Gosden trained colt was clearly improved that day after he wasn't right on his first handicap start following a good maiden win on debut. Visually he was extremely impressive at Ascot, when he trailed the field and wasn't in a very favourable position turning for home, when he was also forced to take the widest route around the whole field. Once straighten up in the home straight he appeared to be quickly on the bridle and put the race easily to bed. There'll be much more to come and connections think allot of him, thus he was supplemented for big money. He will find it more difficult in this field to come from a long way off the pace though, as naturally that is a disadvantage at Ascot when you don't get into position from 4f out. However the likely strong pace will help and he looked special the last time. He has to prove that he's up to this class, but it seems very likely that he is indeed.

Romsdal, 33/1 - Lightly raced Halling son who finished a very creditable third in the Epsom Derby behind Australia and Kingston Hill. Good runner-up in the Chaster Vase before. Only win came in a Kempton maiden though and quick ground is not sure to suit. Looks more like a Ledger type, the way he stayed on at Chester and also how he finished in the Derby, when he couldn't keep up with the speedier two horses in front but equally run honestly to the line. Pedigree suggests he would get further with stamina on both sire and particularly dam side. He likes to be rather up with the pace, which could secure him a good position when it matters and the fact that he stays well could be a bonus if he didn't burn too much energy before. For all of that, it's hard to see him winning this though.

Taghrooda, 11/4 - Unbeaten in three starts, highly progressive, hugely impressive winner of the Epsom Oaks. Won that day like a true champion. She still pulled hard over 4f out which would have cost most horses the race but she didn't lose any momentum and continued to travel like a dream. Ground and trip are fine, she can be ridden in any way, and there must be more to come on only her fourth start. She receives loads of weight as a three year old filly, however it has to be said that three year old fillies haven't won the King George for decades. So it is not an easy task, but she must have a cracking chance to go very close at the very least, considering how easily she beat some good horses in the Oaks. 

Verdict: Undoubtedly if it comes to recent form, then there are three stand out chances in this field: Telescope, Taghrooda and Eagle Top. Looking for the value in this race, I find it hard to fancy the first two named horses though. For obvious reasons, either Telescope or Taghrooda have cracking chances to win the King George, and me dismissing them in the betting doesn't mean I don't think they are likely to go close. Much the opposite. Telescope over 12f on quick ground can well be able to pull out more and finally win a Group 1. While Taghrooda was mightily impressive in the Oaks and is for me the likeliest winner of the race. However I believe they are too shot in the betting market, considering how competitive this race this. Their prices might be a fair evaluation of their chances, but does not reflect any value. 

I do like Romsdal as an each-way chance, as I feel tactically with his ability to stay potentially further, he could be one who keeps going and won't fade away easily. But I can't see him winning either. Trading Leather and Flintshire, from the bigger prices, with conditions in favour, I would expect to go well with  a chance to be right in the mix when it matters. Magician if he can find back to his best, is well able to go very close, but he wasn't convincing this season, so it is hard to recommend him. However the outstanding value in the race is Eagle Top at 6/1, which seems way too big in my mind. He used to be an even bigger price not too long ago, but still is seems a very generous offer - if he takes up his chance, as his trainer is not too keen to let him run if the ground dries out any further. But Eagle Top was so spectacular and visually impressive at Royal Ascot, he truly looked a special colt to my eyes with an awful lot of potential. He won on quick ground that day, so that won't be an issue. Only slight worry for me is if he'll be well enough positioned when the field turns for home. But that is a decision we have to trust William Buick. If he isn't too far off when the field turns for home and he isn't forced to go widest, I feel he'll have everything in his hands to go and win the King George.

Eagle Top @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win 

Wednesday Night Selections - 23rd July 2014

19.55 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f - A compact and competitive field in this feature race of a decent Leicester evening card. The six year old Mister Fizz shares the top weight and comes into this race in good form. In all his three starts this season he has been competitive and was never far beaten. Not a bad performance in his latest at Epsom, when he attempted to make all, fought hard but seemed to tire in the closing stages, even though he also stumbled around the 1f marker which cost momentum. He followed up on his impressive success in a three-runner Handicap at Haydock, though that form has to bee taken with caution since it came on extreme ground conditions in a very small field. Five pounds higher tomorrow, Mister Fizz has to run to a career best, which is not impossible since he seems still improving. 

Kuda Huraa was well  beaten last time out but he is probably better judged on his penultimate performance when he ran out a nice 3rd at Windsor, a form that works out well through strong subsequent performances from the winner and runner-up. Kuda Huraa is rather lightly raced on the turf, he tried jumping for a while and raced on the All-Weather earlier in his career. His best performance came at Epsom last summer when he was only beaten by a head in a very competitive class 3 Handicap.of a mark off 85 - he is currently on the same mark, and proved his competitiveness with the Windsor race. Quick ground is very much what he wants, which is what he gets here at Leicester. The trip is no issue at all, which says Kuda Huraa has conditions in his favour and could be a big runner. 

Progressive Dolphin Village achieved a career best at Thirsk last month when he landed a good Class 3 Handicap in fine style. The way he pulled clear suggested there could be still more to come and he'll relish the conditions at Leicester tomorrow. He has to defy a new career highest mark and is expected to start favourite at the off. Monsieur Rieussec is another well fancied runner with a similar profile like Dolphin Village, to a certain extent at least. Monsieur Rieussec has not too many miles on the clock yet and was progressive last season, but he appears to be in the grip of the Handicapper, so that the step up to 12f must bring out some further improvement to see him in with a realistic winning chance. The betting market suggests that he'll be fine over a distance, but on pedigree there isn't a clear evidence that he stays that far. In fact it is far from obvious. The fact that he never appeared to be crying out for a longer trip on his two starts over 10f, doesn't instill any confidence either. 

Veterab Tepmokea was disappointing at Chester recently, but finished a fine 2nd at Thirsk in the race that Dolphin Village did win.. Tepmokea attempted to make all and went off very quick, leading the field by a big margin throughout the race and was very gutsy when put under pressure by horses left and right to him in the closing stages. He couldn't cope with Dolphin Village's attack, however did fend off all the rest of the pursuers and was less than two lengths beaten in the end. A 4lb swing in the weights with Dolphin Village must give him a fair chance to turn the table with that rival. HAyley Turner's mount Incendo is one from one over course and distance, but should find it difficult to land a blow in this field off his current mark. 

Verdict: It seems a more open race than the betting suggests. Dolphin Village must have a fair chance to follow up on his recent success, while Mister Fizz has the potential improve further too. Most appeal on current prices makes Kuda Huraa who is a very dangerous runner with conditions to suit if he can run to the form he showed at Windsor in May. Tepmokea's gutsy performance at Thirsk was eye-catching. Better in the weights now compared to Dolphin Village, he should be very much involved in the shake-up as well. 

Kuda Huraa @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Tepmokea @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

18.35 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile - A race that could be dominated by the three year olds, brings lightly raced and well seasoned horses together in a typical mid-summer contest. The two three year olds bring winning form to the table. Most notably Luca Cumani's colt Alketios. He broke his maiden tag on third attempt at Haydock last month. He won comfortably in the end that day, but was made work hard it and seemed to be rather one paced and simply outstayed his rivals eventually. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him doing better over further, even though his fair looking opening mark gives him chances over a mile too. 

The other three year old in the line-up is trained by none else than Sir Michael Stoute. The Oasis Dream colt Matravers won a rather poor looking maiden at Leicester over 7f recently on his fourth career start. He tries a mile again tomorrow, which shouldn't be too much of an issue on pedigree though. The Handicapper has given him a chance with an opening mark of 73. However I feel he needs to be better than that to land this. 

Top weight Ogbourne Downs is a winner of three races already and has been in good form in recent month. He'll love the quick Sandown ground as his most recent Brighton win gives him a chance to be competitive, however he hasn't won of higher than 79 yet, so he needs to find some improvement somewhere. Seven year old First Post is a three times course and distance winner and needs to be taken seriously. He is down to his last winning mark and run well more often than not this season. On the other hands it remains to be seen if he is still capable of pulling off a win from his current marks as he is not getting any younger.

The only filly in the race Annina is a very interesting runner. She won a maiden back in September 2012 on her debut in a mightily impressive performance, and got subsequently a big opening mark allocated. She clearly wasn't up to it, but finally at Newbury in her lasted start, she showed some sort of return to form - then rated 80. Over 7f she led the field but got outpaced from over 3f out. She clearly didn't have the speed of some others, but she stayed on very well to finish 3rd. On this performance and on pedigree she clearly needs further. So to tackle a mile will help her, she might need even 10f to be seen at her best though. For now, with the new trip and a fair mark, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her improving a bit, which would give her a good chance to win this race. 

Verdict: The three year olds have a fine chance due to the weight for age allowance, however both are far from convincing chances to justify their short price tag. The filly Annina makes appeal as the value chance of the race as she should be happy over the trip and ground and could show more than what she did so far off a decent mark. 

Annina @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

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Sunday was a disaster for us. My Titania was a disappointing third without looking really dangerous at any point of the race. No excuses for that, she doesn't seem to be good enough and in hindsight it was a poor bet considering the short price.Our second selection Ponfeigh didn't do any better and was beaten before the race realy started. Disappointing. 

Curragh Selections - Sunday 20th July

15.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Group 2) - This nine furlong contest seem to be all about the talented John Oxx filly My Titania. The Sea The stars daughter was surprisingly precocious last season as a juvenile, when she won two of her three starts. My Titania won a Leopardstown maiden, beating a couple of decent horses that day. Runner-up Afternoon Sunlight developed into a 1.000 Guineas trial winner, while third Lahinch Classics finished later a close runner-up in an Oaks trial behind the subsequent second and third of the English and Irish Oaks. My Titania went on to win a 7f Group 3 at the Curragh in nice style and was then installed as one of the favourites for next years Guineas. She missed that as we know now, and instead she made a belated return to the racetrack in the Grade 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, stepping up to 1m for the first time. Things didn't go to plan there as she found herself right on top of the field soon after the start, with no pace on whatsoever. My Titania pulled like a train and must have burned and awful lot of energy in those early stages of the race. Once the pace was on, she travelled very comfortably - in fact she travelled best of all like the winner, on the bridle until the 2f marker. However, once off the bridle, she found very little. At least she stayed on a bit. On the basis of that run, it is probably easy to assume that she will improve fitness wise, and that a further step up in trip to 9f doesn't have to be an issue. Her pedigree gives her every chance to stay the trip easily. The quick ground is fine for her too, and dropping in class, should help certainly too.

What about the rest of the field? Some good rivals in the line-up, no doubt about that. Peace Burg ran a very fine race in the Falmouth Stakes, and rates a clear danger today, with conditions sure to suit. Wannabe Better is a fair, consistent filly, she is a listed winner but hasn't won at the Curragh in eight starts and might be a bit below the standard required to win this. Odeliz is also a consistent sort and up to this level for sure. Her second place behind Thistle Bird at Epsom last month gives her a chance here, she might want a bit further though and could be found out for speed. Mango Diva has won on Group 3 level in the past and will be happy on the quick ground, she has to run to her best though, so has Indigo Lady, and probably need to find a bit of improvement as well, to really feature here. Lahinch Classics is a lightly raced filly, who rates a big danger if she can improve on her fourth start. She might found this trip a bit on the short side I suspect, and was beaten by My Titania quite easily last season. So it remains to be seen how competitive she can be over 9f on quick ground today, but as the only other 3yo, she is on level weights and that makes her a big runner. 

Verdict: My Titania is NAP material. With the weight for age allowance and her undoubted class, she should be better than all the older horses here. If she gets the trip and  a clear passage, it is hard to see her getting beaten. Lahinch Classics and Peace Burg are the biggest dangers. --- My Titania [NAP] @ 11/10 Bet365 - 6pts win

15.15 Curragh: Meld Stakes (Group 3) - Only four runners in a graded contest is always a disappointment, but we still an intriguing and competitive contest on our hands. Parish Hall seems the leading contender for the older horses. He is very consistent, however finds it hard to get his head in front and can't be backed with any confidence. Aiden O'Brien's Festive Cheer finished 3rd in last years Irish Derby, was disappointing subsequently. The drop in trip might help him to regain his old form. Afternoon Sunlight tries the trip for the first time. She won a 1.000 Guineas trial in nice style. On pedigree 10f seems possible, however her 70 days absence from the racetrack is a worry. The other 3yo Ponfeigh is clearly the most interisting runner. He found the Irish Derby too hot and the trip probably too far, dropping to ten will surly help, and seems very much possible on pedigree. He is lightly raced and unexposed but showed loads of potential when winning a conditions race at Navan in extremely impressive style. He travelled strongly and produced a stunning turn of foot to win easily and looked a Group winner in the making. Ponfeigh is expexted to improve past all the other rivals in this race and on current odds is the one I like to be on here. --- Ponfeigh @ 4/1 VC - 3pts win

Late selection for Haydock, Saturday 19th July

19.00 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 14f - Quality handicap considering the class of the race, with some good and competitive sorts in the race. It seems rather open, even though Lady Cecil's Perfect Summer proves popular and the filly tops the market quite comfortably. But she won't have all her own way, even though she is interesting if she can run to the form over this trip that she showed on her penultimate start. 

Most interesting contender in the field considering the current odds, is Ralph Beckett's Aldborough. The four year old is still lightly raced and tries this trip for the first time. He clearly wasn't right the last time at Kempton, though that performance is a worry. However before that he won really nicely a Handicap over 12f at Chepstow in soft conditions. So the rain that has been coming over the day at Haydock today, should be in his favour. On pedigree he should have a very decent chance to stay the trip and it might well bring out further improvement. Of a mark of 76 he might not be finished yet, so I'll give him a chance to be a big runner in this field. --- Aldborough @ 9/1 Betfred - 2pts win

Irish Oaks - Betting Preview

Cracking renewal of the Irish Oaks, despite the absence of Epsom Oaks winner Taghrooda. However the 2nd and 3rd of that race are here today and try to get a Group 1 on the board. Either Tarfasha and Volume are obvious chances, their form is clearly standing out and it's hard to argue against them. There seems little between them but I feel Volume will be much more happy on the galloping Curragh round. He'll attempt to make all and that can be a successful plan here. If you want to argue against them, though, you could state that this a hot race today, that they have to confirm that they are really up to the task and that both got pretty much a clear passage in the Epsom Oaks. On current prices, I would prefer Volume, but I like to look elsewhere for value, cause the Curragh is a much different track to anything these two have encountered yet. Even though Tarfasha did run here in the past. I don't say she isn't a worthy favourite, but short enough in the betting for sure. 

I can't have the O'Brien trio Tapestry, Palace and Marvellous. I doubt that they are either good enough or happy of this trip. Recent Ribblesdale winner Bracelet must be taken very seriously today though. She ran a mighty race on her first try over 12f and should be in with a big shout today. Runner-up in that race was Lustrous. A horse I do really like. She tried the trip for the first time that day and clearly stayed it. In contract to Bracelet, she didn't get a clear run though. She travelled nicely in rear turning for home, but got stuck in traffic and had to switch wide, delaying her run, which meant she had also to find her stride quickly once in the clear. She stayed on really strongly to finish 2nd and it could be argued that with a clear run she would have been very close to the winner eventually. She has to prove that today and her running style might not be a perfect fit for the Curragh, but she is well overpriced and worth a a bit of money.

From the other long-shots I do feel Ballybacka Queen could run a big race. She steps up quite dramatically in trip, however she is bred to get the Oaks distance, which in fact should suit much better than all the trips she raced over so far. She won a maiden over 7f, as her only success to date, but her 3rd behind Afternoon Sunlight at Leopardstown in a Group 3 over 1m is interesting. She was outpaced at the rear of the field turning for home, but she stayed on very strongly, clearly indicating she needs further. Not a surprise that she didn't follow up in another race over a mile, but now she tackles 12f for the first time and that could easily see out some improvement. If she is good enough, if the ground is what she wants - well we'll find out. But at 100/1 I think I give her some sort of a chance to be in the money. 

Lustrous @ 25/1 StanJames - 0.5pts e/w

Ballybacka Queen  100/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts e/w

Racing Selections - Thursday 17th July 2014

Following our NAP in the last post, I've identified two more interesting horses, that may, may not be pretty well handicapped. Both are some sort of dangerous selections considering most recent form, but both equally have the chance to be extremely well treated of their current mark in today conditions. 

15.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f - An interesting and wide open handicap with some well exposed, and some unexposed sorts. The Godolphin Almerzem heads the betting market and there is reason why. He's lightly raced of course, it's his handicap debut and he is well enough bred. However he didn't show much in three maidens and the trip is not sure to suit entirely. His opening mark looks high enough for all of that, even though he could also easily exploit it. However he is a risky proposition and I would avoid to bet on him. Hard Core Dept has recent winning form and is expected to run a fine race under a 6lb penalty. He is not sure to follow up though. Most interesting runner in this field is undoubtedly the Keith Dalgleish's Incurs Four Faults. We have to believe his recent performance when he was pulled up was just an off day, otherwise it wouldn't make sense to let him run so soon after again. So if we draw a line under that run, we can take a look on his penultimate run when he won at Carlisle on quick ground over 9f in really nice style. Effectively he is seven pounds higher today, but that must not be a problem. In fact he goes into this race as an absolute feather weight with only 8st 0lb to shoulder, which one stone less then his nearest competitor. As a three year old he has obviously a weight advantage against older horses. Now he has to show that he is good enough to compete in this class against - on paper at least - way better horses. But he has not too many miles on the clock yet and might pull out some improvement, which would give him a strong chance of this low weight here. --- Incurs Four Faults @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

16.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 13f - Seven starters in this Handicap which seems open on paper. Mark Johnston's lightly races favourite has to prove that he can live up to his current mark on turf as he is ten pounds higher than his last win which came on the All-Weather. O Ma Lad and Aleksandar seem sure to run their race but they shouldn't have too much in hand if there would be one less exposed rival show some improvement. This rival could be Godolphin's extremely lightly raced Emirates Galloper. Sure, he didn't show much since a winning debut over 7f last year, but he had only three starts to date and he steps up markedly in trip, which on pedigree if sure to suit. He is well bred and has stamina all over his pedigree, so it would be a surprise if this trip wouldn't bring out improvement. If that is enough to be competitive in a decent race that this one is, off a mark of 83 remains to be seen, but there must b a very fair chance. And while this opposition isn't entirely poor, it surely is a race to win for an improver. For that reason, EG is the value in the race for me. --- Emirates Galloper @ 6/1 VC - 2pts win