Following our NAP in the last post, I've identified two more interesting horses, that may, may not be pretty well handicapped. Both are some sort of dangerous selections considering most recent form, but both equally have the chance to be extremely well treated of their current mark in today conditions.
15.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f - An interesting and wide open handicap with some well exposed, and some unexposed sorts. The Godolphin Almerzem heads the betting market and there is reason why. He's lightly raced of course, it's his handicap debut and he is well enough bred. However he didn't show much in three maidens and the trip is not sure to suit entirely. His opening mark looks high enough for all of that, even though he could also easily exploit it. However he is a risky proposition and I would avoid to bet on him. Hard Core Dept has recent winning form and is expected to run a fine race under a 6lb penalty. He is not sure to follow up though. Most interesting runner in this field is undoubtedly the Keith Dalgleish's Incurs Four Faults. We have to believe his recent performance when he was pulled up was just an off day, otherwise it wouldn't make sense to let him run so soon after again. So if we draw a line under that run, we can take a look on his penultimate run when he won at Carlisle on quick ground over 9f in really nice style. Effectively he is seven pounds higher today, but that must not be a problem. In fact he goes into this race as an absolute feather weight with only 8st 0lb to shoulder, which one stone less then his nearest competitor. As a three year old he has obviously a weight advantage against older horses. Now he has to show that he is good enough to compete in this class against - on paper at least - way better horses. But he has not too many miles on the clock yet and might pull out some improvement, which would give him a strong chance of this low weight here. --- Incurs Four Faults @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win
16.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 13f - Seven starters in this Handicap which seems open on paper. Mark Johnston's lightly races favourite has to prove that he can live up to his current mark on turf as he is ten pounds higher than his last win which came on the All-Weather. O Ma Lad and Aleksandar seem sure to run their race but they shouldn't have too much in hand if there would be one less exposed rival show some improvement. This rival could be Godolphin's extremely lightly raced Emirates Galloper. Sure, he didn't show much since a winning debut over 7f last year, but he had only three starts to date and he steps up markedly in trip, which on pedigree if sure to suit. He is well bred and has stamina all over his pedigree, so it would be a surprise if this trip wouldn't bring out improvement. If that is enough to be competitive in a decent race that this one is, off a mark of 83 remains to be seen, but there must b a very fair chance. And while this opposition isn't entirely poor, it surely is a race to win for an improver. For that reason, EG is the value in the race for me. --- Emirates Galloper @ 6/1 VC - 2pts win
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