20.40 Chepstow: Class 4 Handicap, 7 furlongs - this Handicap looks an open race and you can easily pick holes into the form of any horse. Favourite Postscript seems well treated on old form, however has never won over seven furlongs in his life. Perfect Mission won a poor Amateur Handicap recently, but this here requires much more. On old form he has a chance, but on balance he shouldn't be good enough. Sarangoo dropped to a good mark and took advantage of it at Windsor over 6f in an Apprentice race. Turned out quickly, she can race off the same mark and must enter calculations, particularly since she has good form over 7f too.
Light From Mars gets also a chance from the handicapper here, being allowed to race off the same mark as when beaten only on the line at Ffos Las eleven days ago over 6f. Back over 7f now, probably his optimum trip, he shouldn't be too far away yet again. He won of a mark off 80 back in March on the Kempton All-Weather over this trip, couldn't quite follow up on softish ground at Ascot and ran over shorter in three subsequent start, doing not too badly in his penultimate race following up then with the strong most recent performance. The 7lb apprentice in the saddle seems solid and this race poses a challenge he can be successful in. He has previous course form here at Chepstow too - so overall makes most appeal at around 11/2.
Verdict: This should be between Light From Mars and Sarangoo. It is hard to seperate these two, as both have fine chance from a handicapping as well as form point of view. With conditions in favour too, it seems hard to look beyond and it makes sense to back them both.
Light From Mars @ 11/2 Bet365 - 2pts win
Sarangoo @ 5/1 Bet365 - 2pts win
16.15 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 1m4f - Very tricky and interesting Handicap which provides the fr this time of the year usual clash between some good older horses and improving three year olds. However this race is particularly compelling as the older horses are largely lightly raced and improving sorts. Naturally you would prefer the three year olds though, due to the huge amount of weight they receive due to weight for age. Let's look a bit deeper into this Handicap, examining each runner individually:
Kikonga, 4yo filly, loves quick ground, won over CD last year in impressive style, not so good since then in hotter company, so subsequent runs fair to discount so the latest run on soft. Should better back here in class 3 with conditions to suit and potentially up to mark, but big weight.
Lady Pimpernel, 4yo filly, good recent form, goes well on quick ground but best form on softer and never won over 12f in four starts. Career best required.
Missed Call, 4o filly, lightly raced, decent comeback run, improved subsequently when stepped up to 12f, clearly stayed trip and relishes fast ground, won maiden well over 10f on fast ground. One paced grinder, and 12f surely suits. Hampered at crucial stage at Chester lto, stayed on very strongly. 2lb up and up in class but more improvement to come over this trip with conditions in favour.
Nullarboy Sky, 4yo filly, won two on the bounce, loves quick ground and very progressive. 4lb up in the mark for recent win is fair, was entitled to win that day in that field. Needs to improve further, trip on pedigree fine.
Tioga Pass, 3yo filly, lightly raced and progressive. Won extremely well over 12f at Goodwood lto when 1lb out of the handicap. Hefty rise in the mark by 12lb, chance on the weights but needs to produce this on quick ground now.
Arabian Comet, 3yo filly lightly raced, tries trip for the 1st time, seems fine on pedigree and impression from latest start goes along with this. Won well over mile on quick ground before, up in the mark and needs to improve further, but that is likely over this new trip.
Cameo Tiara, 3yo, lightly raced, tries new trip, needs to improve dramatically for that to be in with a chance, but nice weight, unsure if 12 is what she wants with loads of speed on dam side. Good claimer on board.
Swan Lakes, 3yo filly, won maiden well over trip and ground. Outstayed rival in tight finish. Low opening mark, chance on weights and improvement likely. But bit to find against some good opposition.
Verdict: The three year olds have a strong hand in this. Arabian Comet is the favourite and could well be able to exploit her mark on WFO terms. Swan Lakes has a very low mark to play with but has to prove that she is good enough in such a good race. Kikonga has a chance with conditions in favour, but the big weight is still a worry. From the four year olds Missed Call makes clearly most appeal as she seems to be an improver with age, is still lightly raced and gave a strong impression in her latest race when trying the trip for the first time. Se could a good deal better than his current rating of 85 - but has to be as well, in order to win this against good 3yo rivals. She represents the value on balance given his current odds though. --- Missed Call @ 9/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win
16.50 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 6f - Big and competitive sprint Handicap over the straight course. As much as it is competitive, as much it lacks too many obvious chances. You can pick wholes into anyone, and a big priced winner is not unlikely given the fact that a 7yo is heading the market who needs a career best.
I do fancy the chance of Noble Deed, with Kieron Fallon on board. Noble Deed did surly need his most recent run after a break of five month. Before that he tried the All-Weather during the winter, with not too much success though. He was a progressive sprinter last year however. He won three races and finished the turf season with a 2nd at Ascot over 6f, beaten only by a head. He is down to this mark today and has the quick ground that is vital to him. After all, he must have a better chance than his big price suggests in this field. --- Noble Deed @ 20/1 Betfred - 1pt e/w
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We had a disappointing Thursday with our two selections being unsuccessful. Forever Now travelled okay but didn't quite seem to relish the strange underfoot conditions and faded back into third in the end. Sir Guy Porteous ran really well but unfortunately got caught on the line! That is really bitter and quite costly.
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