THE July Cup is one of the World's best and most prestigious sprints. Over 6 furlongs we'll see a bunch of top class athletes thundering down the Newmarket July course - it doesn't last long, but it's exciting, fast and furious! A big purse of £510,000 is on offer, so no surprise to see the crème de la crème of Europe's sprinters taking each other on today. Who is gonna win it? That's the big question. Ground conditions haven't made things easier. After loads of rain the last few days, the going is officially described as soft now. That'll make life tough for some, but brings in some others into the equation. Let's take a look at all the important runners in this race, and examine their chances.
The likes of Gregorian, who has never contested in a sprint and always did his best work over further, up to 9f, but he relishes juice in the ground, and that gives him a chance if he is speedy enough. Jack Dexter loves cut in the ground too, all his best form comes on softish ground. He hasn't been good enough for a while, but if he could find back to his best form, then he is in with a shout. Moviesta is a Group 2 winner over 5f and has form on soft ground, however might find the trip a bit too far. You wouldn't think that Rex Imperator is good enough in this company, but he finished a close 2nd on soft over 7f in Listed company, and has enough speed for 6f - so not impossible to see him involved in the finish. Tropics is a G3 winner over 6f on good to soft, but hasn't shown anything this year. Exciting 3yo filly Hot Streak excels on rain softened ground, she was a big runner in the King's Stand when finishing 3rd behind Sole Power - she should have a real go again, however the trip is a slight concern as her best form is over five. Can she see out the trip in a tough Group 1? Mentioning Sole Power, he is a top class sprinter, we know that. But 6f on soft ground is surly not what he wants and for that reason it is really hard to be to enthusiastic about his chance here today.
His stable mate Slade Power is the big favourite for this race. He won the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot in fine style and he is clearly improved this year compared to last season, when he still performed well in July Cup. He seems to have all in favour today. Distance, ground - he relishes soft ground - beat mud lover Maarek at a rain softened Curragh earlier this year - has the best recent form one can imagine. He is an obvious chance to win this race. The money is coming for him, no surprise, and as low as 2/1 now, the betting clearly favours him to land a nother big price.
International flair finds its way into the race with Noozhooh Canarias, the Spanish "speed ball". I talked him up in this blog before, right after the 2.000 Guineas. That day he attempted to make all and set the Rowley Mile alight with a blistering pace. He was still in front 1f out, but then he had to pay tribute for all the energy he burned up to then and faded away. S the drop in trip will very much suit, ground should be fine, even though I have the slight feeling that he actually is better on a fast going. He is a very interesting contender today though and I'm really looking forward to see what he can do. The US raider Undrafted is an unknown quantity. He is a Grade 3 winner over 6f on the dirt back home, has some form on turf too and won up to 1 mile there. Soft ground is a big worry for him though and it is really hard to know what to expect.
From the Aiden O'Brien runners, Due Diligence makes most appeal. Cougar Mountain has a bit to find on form, while Fountain Of Youth is a fast ground horse. However Due Diligence showed in the Diamond Jubilee that he is a very talented sprinter. He finished a fine 2nd behind Slade Power that day, didn't quite get a clear run but also hit a bit of a flat spot at a crucial stage of the race. As a 3yo he has a nice weight due to the weight for age allowance and that rates him a big danger. On pedigree fast ground should be what he wants, but he looked perfectly fine when encountering cut in the ground in Ireland. He won a good Handicap at Naas, and followed up with a Listed success, both times with juice in the ground. That gives hope that he'll handle the conditions well today, and that must give him a nice chance to be right there when it matters, and then with a clear run, he could get closer to Slade Power.
One last horse to mention: Astaire. Another three year old - he was a fine prospect in his juvenile season last year, some thought he'd be even a Guineas prospect, but it was soon clear that he wouldn't stay the trip when tried over further in the Greenham back in May. Reverted to sprinting then, he is now a top class 6 furlongs horse and he clearly showed that when finishing 2nd in a Group 2 at York behind Maarek also his latest run in the Diamond Jubilee wasn't bad at all, despite finishing down in 6th. But considering that he went off way too quick that day, it must be rated a good performance. His best form comes with cut in the ground. He won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes on good to soft and a Group 2 on soft last season. With a nice weight due to the WFO allowance, and more sensible ride today, he can be a big runner in these conditions.
Verdict: The horse to beat is Slade Power. He is a top class sprinter, has the right form in the book and will be hard to beat. However this is the July Cup, many things can happen and there is good opposition. So with odds pretty low, I'll try to find value and this lies with Aiden O'Brien's Due Diligence in my mind. He showed that he can handle these kind of conditions, he is more than up to this class as she showed in the Diamond Jubilee and there is more improvement to come. If he can show his best on this ground, he'll give Slade Power a run for the money. So should Astaire. Another three year old, like Due Diligence. He relishes the conditions, is a speedy sort, is a Group 1 winner, and confirmed with good performances this year that he clearly trained on. He's a big price and can run better than that.
Due Diligence @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win
Astaire @ 20/1 William Hill - 0.5pts e/w
No comments :
Post a Comment