Irish Oaks - Betting Preview

Cracking renewal of the Irish Oaks, despite the absence of Epsom Oaks winner Taghrooda. However the 2nd and 3rd of that race are here today and try to get a Group 1 on the board. Either Tarfasha and Volume are obvious chances, their form is clearly standing out and it's hard to argue against them. There seems little between them but I feel Volume will be much more happy on the galloping Curragh round. He'll attempt to make all and that can be a successful plan here. If you want to argue against them, though, you could state that this a hot race today, that they have to confirm that they are really up to the task and that both got pretty much a clear passage in the Epsom Oaks. On current prices, I would prefer Volume, but I like to look elsewhere for value, cause the Curragh is a much different track to anything these two have encountered yet. Even though Tarfasha did run here in the past. I don't say she isn't a worthy favourite, but short enough in the betting for sure. 

I can't have the O'Brien trio Tapestry, Palace and Marvellous. I doubt that they are either good enough or happy of this trip. Recent Ribblesdale winner Bracelet must be taken very seriously today though. She ran a mighty race on her first try over 12f and should be in with a big shout today. Runner-up in that race was Lustrous. A horse I do really like. She tried the trip for the first time that day and clearly stayed it. In contract to Bracelet, she didn't get a clear run though. She travelled nicely in rear turning for home, but got stuck in traffic and had to switch wide, delaying her run, which meant she had also to find her stride quickly once in the clear. She stayed on really strongly to finish 2nd and it could be argued that with a clear run she would have been very close to the winner eventually. She has to prove that today and her running style might not be a perfect fit for the Curragh, but she is well overpriced and worth a a bit of money.

From the other long-shots I do feel Ballybacka Queen could run a big race. She steps up quite dramatically in trip, however she is bred to get the Oaks distance, which in fact should suit much better than all the trips she raced over so far. She won a maiden over 7f, as her only success to date, but her 3rd behind Afternoon Sunlight at Leopardstown in a Group 3 over 1m is interesting. She was outpaced at the rear of the field turning for home, but she stayed on very strongly, clearly indicating she needs further. Not a surprise that she didn't follow up in another race over a mile, but now she tackles 12f for the first time and that could easily see out some improvement. If she is good enough, if the ground is what she wants - well we'll find out. But at 100/1 I think I give her some sort of a chance to be in the money. 

Lustrous @ 25/1 StanJames - 0.5pts e/w

Ballybacka Queen  100/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts e/w