14.45 Turffontein - MR 83 Handicap (1.450m): Wide open race. Lightly raced 3yo Max The Man is going to post as warm favourite following two nice wins in maiden company and subsequently on handicap debut. He's got punished with the maximum penalty and has 58kg to shoulder which is an awful lot for 3yo against seasoned older horses. However there is chance that he is better than his current mark and for all of that he looked smart lto, so a bold show is expected. Nonetheless he's to short in the betting given the huge weight. De Kock's Honey Bun might be better than what we have seen so far from her. She is lightly raced and can still improve, but she has to do so to be competitive Over the 1450m trip with decent weight in an easier race I give her a chance but against the boys it is still a tough task. The three key older horses should be the two course specialists Havana Beat Quad Bay as well as Due and Payable. Havana Beat did beat these two rivals earlier this year, but is much worse in the weights today. Quad Bay won of higher than his current mark in the past and with his course record given he is a real danger, but on the weights Due And Payable has a massive chance if he runs to form. He was 1/4 of a lengths beaten by Havana Beat back in March over course and distance, but that day with a big weight and has a 2kg swing in his favour today. He won off a higher mark in the past and comes into this race fresh after a really good effort at Vaal lto when he had a wide draw to overcome. Blinkers on for the first time today might bring out bit of improvement, the 2.5kg weight allowance by the apprentice jockey on board will help too. Draw is not quite ideal, and 1.450m might stretch his stamina slightly, but for all he has a huge chance.
Verdict: If Max The Man is pattern class he'll win this. But then he has to be that good I feel in order to overcome his tough task assigned by the handicapper against older horses. From the older horses Due And Payable makes most appeal with weights in his favour, good collateral form and first time blinkers. --- Due And Payable @ 4/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win
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