Wednesday Night Selections - 23rd July 2014

19.55 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f - A compact and competitive field in this feature race of a decent Leicester evening card. The six year old Mister Fizz shares the top weight and comes into this race in good form. In all his three starts this season he has been competitive and was never far beaten. Not a bad performance in his latest at Epsom, when he attempted to make all, fought hard but seemed to tire in the closing stages, even though he also stumbled around the 1f marker which cost momentum. He followed up on his impressive success in a three-runner Handicap at Haydock, though that form has to bee taken with caution since it came on extreme ground conditions in a very small field. Five pounds higher tomorrow, Mister Fizz has to run to a career best, which is not impossible since he seems still improving. 

Kuda Huraa was well  beaten last time out but he is probably better judged on his penultimate performance when he ran out a nice 3rd at Windsor, a form that works out well through strong subsequent performances from the winner and runner-up. Kuda Huraa is rather lightly raced on the turf, he tried jumping for a while and raced on the All-Weather earlier in his career. His best performance came at Epsom last summer when he was only beaten by a head in a very competitive class 3 Handicap.of a mark off 85 - he is currently on the same mark, and proved his competitiveness with the Windsor race. Quick ground is very much what he wants, which is what he gets here at Leicester. The trip is no issue at all, which says Kuda Huraa has conditions in his favour and could be a big runner. 

Progressive Dolphin Village achieved a career best at Thirsk last month when he landed a good Class 3 Handicap in fine style. The way he pulled clear suggested there could be still more to come and he'll relish the conditions at Leicester tomorrow. He has to defy a new career highest mark and is expected to start favourite at the off. Monsieur Rieussec is another well fancied runner with a similar profile like Dolphin Village, to a certain extent at least. Monsieur Rieussec has not too many miles on the clock yet and was progressive last season, but he appears to be in the grip of the Handicapper, so that the step up to 12f must bring out some further improvement to see him in with a realistic winning chance. The betting market suggests that he'll be fine over a distance, but on pedigree there isn't a clear evidence that he stays that far. In fact it is far from obvious. The fact that he never appeared to be crying out for a longer trip on his two starts over 10f, doesn't instill any confidence either. 

Veterab Tepmokea was disappointing at Chester recently, but finished a fine 2nd at Thirsk in the race that Dolphin Village did win.. Tepmokea attempted to make all and went off very quick, leading the field by a big margin throughout the race and was very gutsy when put under pressure by horses left and right to him in the closing stages. He couldn't cope with Dolphin Village's attack, however did fend off all the rest of the pursuers and was less than two lengths beaten in the end. A 4lb swing in the weights with Dolphin Village must give him a fair chance to turn the table with that rival. HAyley Turner's mount Incendo is one from one over course and distance, but should find it difficult to land a blow in this field off his current mark. 

Verdict: It seems a more open race than the betting suggests. Dolphin Village must have a fair chance to follow up on his recent success, while Mister Fizz has the potential improve further too. Most appeal on current prices makes Kuda Huraa who is a very dangerous runner with conditions to suit if he can run to the form he showed at Windsor in May. Tepmokea's gutsy performance at Thirsk was eye-catching. Better in the weights now compared to Dolphin Village, he should be very much involved in the shake-up as well. 

Kuda Huraa @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Tepmokea @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

18.35 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile - A race that could be dominated by the three year olds, brings lightly raced and well seasoned horses together in a typical mid-summer contest. The two three year olds bring winning form to the table. Most notably Luca Cumani's colt Alketios. He broke his maiden tag on third attempt at Haydock last month. He won comfortably in the end that day, but was made work hard it and seemed to be rather one paced and simply outstayed his rivals eventually. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him doing better over further, even though his fair looking opening mark gives him chances over a mile too. 

The other three year old in the line-up is trained by none else than Sir Michael Stoute. The Oasis Dream colt Matravers won a rather poor looking maiden at Leicester over 7f recently on his fourth career start. He tries a mile again tomorrow, which shouldn't be too much of an issue on pedigree though. The Handicapper has given him a chance with an opening mark of 73. However I feel he needs to be better than that to land this. 

Top weight Ogbourne Downs is a winner of three races already and has been in good form in recent month. He'll love the quick Sandown ground as his most recent Brighton win gives him a chance to be competitive, however he hasn't won of higher than 79 yet, so he needs to find some improvement somewhere. Seven year old First Post is a three times course and distance winner and needs to be taken seriously. He is down to his last winning mark and run well more often than not this season. On the other hands it remains to be seen if he is still capable of pulling off a win from his current marks as he is not getting any younger.

The only filly in the race Annina is a very interesting runner. She won a maiden back in September 2012 on her debut in a mightily impressive performance, and got subsequently a big opening mark allocated. She clearly wasn't up to it, but finally at Newbury in her lasted start, she showed some sort of return to form - then rated 80. Over 7f she led the field but got outpaced from over 3f out. She clearly didn't have the speed of some others, but she stayed on very well to finish 3rd. On this performance and on pedigree she clearly needs further. So to tackle a mile will help her, she might need even 10f to be seen at her best though. For now, with the new trip and a fair mark, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her improving a bit, which would give her a good chance to win this race. 

Verdict: The three year olds have a fine chance due to the weight for age allowance, however both are far from convincing chances to justify their short price tag. The filly Annina makes appeal as the value chance of the race as she should be happy over the trip and ground and could show more than what she did so far off a decent mark. 

Annina @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

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Sunday was a disaster for us. My Titania was a disappointing third without looking really dangerous at any point of the race. No excuses for that, she doesn't seem to be good enough and in hindsight it was a poor bet considering the short price.Our second selection Ponfeigh didn't do any better and was beaten before the race realy started. Disappointing.