Sunday, July 20, 2014

Curragh Selections - Sunday 20th July

15.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Group 2) - This nine furlong contest seem to be all about the talented John Oxx filly My Titania. The Sea The stars daughter was surprisingly precocious last season as a juvenile, when she won two of her three starts. My Titania won a Leopardstown maiden, beating a couple of decent horses that day. Runner-up Afternoon Sunlight developed into a 1.000 Guineas trial winner, while third Lahinch Classics finished later a close runner-up in an Oaks trial behind the subsequent second and third of the English and Irish Oaks. My Titania went on to win a 7f Group 3 at the Curragh in nice style and was then installed as one of the favourites for next years Guineas. She missed that as we know now, and instead she made a belated return to the racetrack in the Grade 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, stepping up to 1m for the first time. Things didn't go to plan there as she found herself right on top of the field soon after the start, with no pace on whatsoever. My Titania pulled like a train and must have burned and awful lot of energy in those early stages of the race. Once the pace was on, she travelled very comfortably - in fact she travelled best of all like the winner, on the bridle until the 2f marker. However, once off the bridle, she found very little. At least she stayed on a bit. On the basis of that run, it is probably easy to assume that she will improve fitness wise, and that a further step up in trip to 9f doesn't have to be an issue. Her pedigree gives her every chance to stay the trip easily. The quick ground is fine for her too, and dropping in class, should help certainly too.

What about the rest of the field? Some good rivals in the line-up, no doubt about that. Peace Burg ran a very fine race in the Falmouth Stakes, and rates a clear danger today, with conditions sure to suit. Wannabe Better is a fair, consistent filly, she is a listed winner but hasn't won at the Curragh in eight starts and might be a bit below the standard required to win this. Odeliz is also a consistent sort and up to this level for sure. Her second place behind Thistle Bird at Epsom last month gives her a chance here, she might want a bit further though and could be found out for speed. Mango Diva has won on Group 3 level in the past and will be happy on the quick ground, she has to run to her best though, so has Indigo Lady, and probably need to find a bit of improvement as well, to really feature here. Lahinch Classics is a lightly raced filly, who rates a big danger if she can improve on her fourth start. She might found this trip a bit on the short side I suspect, and was beaten by My Titania quite easily last season. So it remains to be seen how competitive she can be over 9f on quick ground today, but as the only other 3yo, she is on level weights and that makes her a big runner. 

Verdict: My Titania is NAP material. With the weight for age allowance and her undoubted class, she should be better than all the older horses here. If she gets the trip and  a clear passage, it is hard to see her getting beaten. Lahinch Classics and Peace Burg are the biggest dangers. --- My Titania [NAP] @ 11/10 Bet365 - 6pts win


15.15 Curragh: Meld Stakes (Group 3) - Only four runners in a graded contest is always a disappointment, but we still an intriguing and competitive contest on our hands. Parish Hall seems the leading contender for the older horses. He is very consistent, however finds it hard to get his head in front and can't be backed with any confidence. Aiden O'Brien's Festive Cheer finished 3rd in last years Irish Derby, was disappointing subsequently. The drop in trip might help him to regain his old form. Afternoon Sunlight tries the trip for the first time. She won a 1.000 Guineas trial in nice style. On pedigree 10f seems possible, however her 70 days absence from the racetrack is a worry. The other 3yo Ponfeigh is clearly the most interisting runner. He found the Irish Derby too hot and the trip probably too far, dropping to ten will surly help, and seems very much possible on pedigree. He is lightly raced and unexposed but showed loads of potential when winning a conditions race at Navan in extremely impressive style. He travelled strongly and produced a stunning turn of foot to win easily and looked a Group winner in the making. Ponfeigh is expexted to improve past all the other rivals in this race and on current odds is the one I like to be on here. --- Ponfeigh @ 4/1 VC - 3pts win

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