15.05 Chester - Queensferry Stakes (Listed): The field decimated through the going change and now down to seven runners, seems quite an open race. Favourite Ertijaal looked promising as a juvenile and when he returned racing in spring this year with two impressive performances on the all-Weather. He didn't get the trip in the 2.000 Guineas and probably did too much too early in the Bunbury Cup at Newbury. He remains an interesting prospect and the drop in trip might help him to settle. Despite his decent recent performance on similar ground, I'm not convinced that he can show his best with cut in the ground, so the rain must count against him, even though the track will probably very much suit. On all that evidence I need to oppose him at his quite short price tag. Dinkum Diamond is ground independent an won a Listed race over 6f in soft conditions last season. He ran with credit in the Group 3 Coral Charge the last time and the drop in class will help him. I still believe the shorter 5f is more ideal for him, but on form he must have a fine chance here. However what counts against him is the weight. He gives it away all around and that doesn't make it an easy task. Ballista goes well at Chester but prefers a quicker surface ideally, there is also no too much in his form that suggests that is he is quite up to this standard required to win this at the moment.
The only remaining filly in the race, Body And Soul makes more appeal. She was too keen in a Group 3 at Newcastle last time out, but ran with loads of credit in her two outings in hot class 2 Handicaps before. She is ground independent, but her best performance to date came in Listed company over 6f in soft conditions. That says this test today should suit, so should the sharp track.
Bommerang Bob is a consistent sort, but his winning record is poor. The conditions of this particular race today quite suit though, and another good run is likely. If that is enough to prevail is another question. Intransigent is better on the All-weather and this test here seems unlikely to suit him. Three year old Coulsty is a Listed winner, however over 7f on quick ground. It remains to be seen if he can show his best over shorter at this sharp track with underfoot conditions.
Verdict: Hard to predict what happens. Ertijaal has the class if he can show his best over the shorter trip with cut in the ground, but the value seems proven filly Body And Soul. She is a Listed winner over this trip and ground and the track could suit perfectly. She must have a big chance and seems a big price. --- Body And Soul @ 13/2 William Hill - 3pts win
16.45 Chester - Class 4 Handicap: Another small field but also a very competitive little Handicap. Head of the market is English Summer, who is in excellent form lately and loves this track. He won back in June over course and distance in similar ground conditions and was not beaten far over bit further recently at Haydock. He has an obvious chance and might be able to pull out a bit more. His mark off 80 doesn't make it an easy task, nonetheless he is capable of running very much to this rating of course.
The only three year old in the race, Notarised is another who is in with a big chance. He likes to lead and ran with credit in his recent starts. This sharp track can suit, even though he still has to prove that he really can stay thus far. On the weights he is an obvious chance if he can hit the mark off his current mark over this trip. Cool Sky returns to the level for a new yard. New trainer Ian Williams has his string in fine form and ha a 20% strike rate at this track in the last twelve month, which makes the five year old gelding an interesting runner. He did well enough over obstacles and was a progressive horse on the flat before too. He won a couple of races on the All-Weather his last start on the flat last June was a successful one over 14f of a mark off 81. Potentially there is still a bit of improvement left and he could be a bit better than his current mark. The sharp track should suit and with loads of pace in the race, he might find ideal conditions today. Spanish Plume loves the track, but the ground is a major worry. Rio's Rosanna is difficult to assess on recent form, however if she is fit and well, she wouldn't be without a chance.
Verdict: The two towards the head of the market have excellent chances, but further improvement is already reflected in their prices. Cool Sky in contrast could still be a bit better now back on the flat and with conditions in favour might explore his current mark. For all of that he seems too big in the betting market. --- Cool Sky @ 13/2 William Hill - 2pts win
16.25 Newbury - Class 4 Handicap: The rain has arrived at Newbury and has shaken up the field. Plenty of non-runners and not too many in the line-up who appear to be well suited to conditions or well handicapped. veteran Cheveton could be in with a decent shot on old form, as he loves the mud, is a distance specialist and won at this track before. However the lack of a recent run as well as the current mark are worrying factors. Favourite Random Success is still quite lightly raced and drops significantly in class. This is much more appropriate to what she has achieved in the past and her penultimate performance gives her a chance. However she hasn't a single form on soft ground, so she to be taken on trust to relish the conditions.
Top weight Exceptionelle hasn't won on turf yet but has some good form in better races to her name. Hood is back and cheek-pieces on for the first time. If that can bring out some improvement, she can run well. Secret Missile and Steel Rain both have form on soft ground and can't be discounted with conditions to suit. Rebecca Romero was in good order in recent weeks and the drop in trip to 5f should see her competitive. Ground conditions should be fine, however a career best is required. Talented Cam Hardie in the saddle is worth every single pound of his 5lb claim and that will give Rebecca Romero a very fair chance to win off her current mark. Hardie and trainer Coackley have also formed a very fruitful partnership in recent weeks. So a good run is definitely on the cards. Veteran Ziggy ran well in the last number of weeks. A good placed effort at Nottingham and his runner-up effort at Windsor give him a good chance today. Three year old Stellarta isn't entirely out of this. She has to show a bit more though in this competitive company on ground she isn't completely sure to relish.
Verdict: Competitive in its own way, it is hard to be too excited about any horse. Steel Rain appears to be a very big price and could run into the money, while a couple of others have the ability to feature strongly. Most appeal on price makes Rebecca Romero to me though. Despite a high mark, she has plenty going for her with conditions in favour and a top apprentice on board. This is a race that could see her run to a career best. --- Rebecca Romero @ 7/1 William Hill - 2pts win
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