15.50 York: Ebor Handicap - As it it's usually the case, the Ebor is as an incredibly competitive race, so is this years renewal. Twenty runners, and it's easy to make a case for more than half of the field! Yes, it's a top prize on offer, with top class horses all around in the line-up. The Ebor is not for nothing the most valuable flat racing Handicap in Europe.
Lady Cecil won the race with Tiger Cliff last year, and she's holding a strong hand in this years renewal yet again. With Mighty Yar she trains the second favourite. This still lightly races four year old colt is improving nicely, after shaping with loads of promise on his sole start in 2013 and looks one who has a big win in him. That's says he's clearly bound to run a mighty race this afternoon. Lady Cecil's second string, Retirement Plan, is also one not to underestimate. A winner over 2m in his latest outing, he brings good form into this race and could easily progress further, however might be found out for speed. Of the two Cecil runners, Mighty Yar is clearly the one to be most interested in.
Worthy favourite Pallasator is hard to fault. He has impressive form, is sure to get the trip, won't have a problem with the ground, could be still progressing with not too many miles on the clock and comes from a good yard. The wide draw could be a negative, but doesn't have to be. His most recent success was extremely impressive, when he prevailed so powerful at Ascot. The only thing possibly not to like is his short price. Personally I rather try to find some value in a bigger price, as a short price in such a big and competitive Handicap doesn't make me feel too comfortable, but it is easy to see why he is so prominent in the betting. He'll be thereabouts.
Godolphin's Wadi Al Hattawi was unlucky at Ascot and can improve for the new trip. He doesn't do too much for me though and think there are more likely sorts in this race, which also says 12/1 doesn't strike me as a particularly generous price. Clever Cookie, dead-heated here at York in Listed company earlier this year, was probably not quite suited by fast ground and 10f in his latest and will be better back over the 14f trip - still, rather quick ground is a worry. De Rigueur is a very interesting runner. He has collateral form with the favourite and he relishes these big handicaps, where he can cruise through gaps passing horses, just to be asked for everything as late as possible. This is a perfect test for him in terms of trip, ground and fast pace very much to suit, in addition to top class form in the book. I do like him allot, however feel he'll need an awful lot of in-running luck taking into account his running style. Sir Michael Stoute's Bold Sniper is a good horse, not sure if he gets the trip however. Sir Walter Scott is extremely lightly raced and could spring a surprise trying this trip for the first time. Hard to be too confident about his chances though, simply on the basis that we don't have any indication of what to expect. Van Percey could be well able to defy a 4lb penalty, a career best is required though. Johnny Murtagh's Mutual Regard is one I do like allot. Probably better over 2m, but his 3rd behind Pale Mimosa in Group company is strong form and the fast pace is likely to play into his hands. Good apprentice on board, he could be one staying on late.
By far the most interesting horse in this field is Great Hall, in my mind. He poses a very interesting profile. Lightly raced, talented and classy as a 3yo, connections felt he could be good enough to contest a Leger. Didn't quite work out but there is any indication that he has nicely progressed over the winter month. He was an improving sort in 2013, when he landed two competitive Handicaps, following a stint at Meydan earlier this year, which was a mixed experience. One good performance in a strong and competitive Handicap, where he was attempting to make all, and just tired late, in addition to one below par run. Back in home soils, on his first start in the UK this season for new connections and surprisingly without blinkers, he ran a mighty race in a Listed. Travelling nicely, while not getting the clearest of runs on the inside for large parts of the home straight, he got out over 2f out and was caught up in a fight with the horse right beside him. Entering the final furlong he looked the winner, but on the stands side two rivals stayed on strongly and it might well have been the case that Great Hall either idled in front, or was still fully concentrated on the horse on his far side. O course he might just got tired after being only back from a break. He finished 3rd eventually, which appears to be strong form as it didn't work out too badly subsequently. If Great Hall is able to run to this kind of form again, he'll go extremely close I feel. He's still an improving sort, and currently on a mark of 99, it is far from impossible that he is well in here today.
Last years favourite Ted Vale is sure to run his race again in this years renewal. He is a consistent sort, however he's 1lb higher than last year and he wasn't able to win it in 2013, so it is hard to see why he should go better this season. As a seven year old he is hardly improving, however he has each-way claims. Whiplash Willie was third on his latest start in a Group 2 over 2m. Fitted with blinkers today, he's is not without a chance, but he appears to be more of an out and out stayer and has a tough assignment on his current Handicap mark. Galileo son Dare To Achieve seems high enough in the mark, but might offer a bit of improvement for the new trip. Mick Channon's Elidor is consistent, but hard to see him good enough to win this of a mark off 99.
Verdict: Pallasator will prove very popular with punters, and rightly so. He has a leading chance. If you are comfortable backing a rather short price in a big field, then he is probably the "go to" horse and a solid bet. Not for me though. I believe Mighty Yar will run a mighty race, also expect Murtagh's Mutual Regard to do very well, and if he gets the gaps at the right time then De Rigueur is a very dangerous horse. However Great Hall has the most interesting profile for me. Lightly raced, improving, strong recent form, potentially well in the weights. I do like him allot, and think he is well overpriced.
Great Hall @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1.5pts e/w
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