15.50 Newbury: Hungerford Stakes - Cracking renewal of this Group 2 contest. Last years winner Gregorian (5/2) tops the market. He's a worthy favourite, given his proven record over this trip and track. He showed himself in fine nick this season when winning the Group 3 Criterion Stakes earlier this year at Newmarket, and his 3rd place in the July Cup rates extremely strong form. He couldn't follow up in France last week when he finished as beaten favourite in 10th. He will have to bounce back and has to be taken on trust to do exactly that today. Second favourite Breton Rock (7/2) is a seven furlong specialist and loves cut in the ground, so the drying ground might count slightly against him. He has strong form to offer though, with an unlucky runner-up behind Penitent in the Group 3 Jury Stakes back in May, when he didn't get a clear run and would have probably won if he would have got out of a pocket a bit earlier. He chased home the eventual winner in the final furlong and was only a shoulder beaten on the line. He followed up with this performance on his strong Listed race success at the same venue two weeks earlier, when he beat very useful Custom Cut by half a lengths. The runner-up franked the form subsequently with two listed and a G3 success. If Breton Rock can run to similar form as he did in his last two starts, he'll have a cracking chance to prevail today.
Chil The Kite is a late improving sort. He was a good 3yo winner of a Listed contest in France over 1m, but never quite made the cut on Group level. Strong performances in big handicaps lately, make him an interesting runner. He'll need a strong pace, which he got in handicap company, not so sure how the race will unfold tactically today though. Richard Hannon's Producer and Professor both are very good, consistent animals. The former one bounced back to form with a strong runner-up effort in a Group 3 earlier this week, when he had a rough ride throughout. Drop to 7f should suit based on his best form, but he clearly will need to be at his best to have a winning chance today. Professor is back to his best since he won his latest outing. He doesn't strike as a horse quite up to Group 2 level however. Richard Hughes prefers him though, and that is a confidence boost in his chance. Long-shot Brazos is a decent handicapper but has allot to find against this opposition. He's hard to fancy on pure form.
Verdict: Gregorian is a fair favourite, but it's easy to pick holes into his recent form and he has to be taken on since his price tag doesn't strike as overly generous - it's more or less a fair one. If the pace is strong, Chil The Kite will be a big runner. Richard Hannon's runners should run their race, but the 7/2 for Breton Rock seem generous. He has classy form in the book, is a distance specialist and only reason that count against him is the drying ground. On balance, I rather want to be with him than against him considering the price.
Breton Rock @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win
No comments :
Post a Comment