The question is why is that? Ground is nice - safe fast ground. It's a beautiful track, on a prestigious race day of Glorious Goodwood. Well, we all know the answer: There is too much racing, in particular there are too many Group 1 races in Europe, which means connections can duck away from challenges and simply go next week somewhere else for an "easy" race. It's sad. Group ones should be the pinnacle of the racing calender, each one with the prestige of a Champions League final. But if you have too many of them, they become a race like so many others. It's nothing special anymore to win a Group 1. Something has to be done about this fact - but that is for another day.
I feel there is no outstanding filly in the race, which opens it for an outsider to feature strongly. Aiden O'Brien's Venus de Milo is a rock solid favourite nonetheless. The four year old has a couple of nice performances to her name. She returned to form in the Munster Oaks at Cork earlier this year, a Group 3 on quick ground over 12 furlongs. She followed up with another strong performance in the Pretty Polly Stakes (10f), when she finished an honorable runner-up behind Thistle Bird. However she was also beaten fair and square, and the feeling is, that she is better over 12f and is vulnerable over the shorter trip. I expect her to be up with the pace, to ensure it'll be a stamina test. Venus de Milo must have a good chance to win this, but I think she is priced up as fair as it gets.
French raider Narniyn has very strong form to offer. A multiple Group winner over 10f, she finished a creditable fourth in the Grand Prix Saint Cloud recently. All her form comes on soft ground though, so it's unknown how she'll cope with the much quicker conditions today. She'll be a big runner if she can bring her A-game to the table in these conditions. Mango Diva was a good winner of the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes at the Curragh two weeks ago, which was a below par renewal in my mind, though. She likes the ground and the trip is perfect, so should go well. Hard to see any value in her price however, which also applies to Narniyn. Lightly raced Sultanina drops in trip and tackles quick ground for the first time. That might well be the game changer for her, yet it's hard to be too enthusiastic about it. Amazing Maria was a good and progressive juvenile. She won a Group 3 over 7f, and was thrown into deep water right into the Epsom Oaks on her three year old comeback run. With stamina doubts over her head, she finished last out of 17 that day. The drop in trip should help but even ten furlongs isn't sure to suit.
Lustrous was a big disappointment in the Irish Oaks. She couldn't confirm her strong run in the Ribblesdale Stakes, when she chased home Bracelet. She won won on Listed level over a mile before, so the drop to 10f from the Oaks trip shouldn't pose too much of a problem, however she looked like a stayer on her Ascot run as well as on pedigree. Recent poor run is a worry too. If she can find back to her Royal Ascot form, she has a chance to feature though and I wouldn't give up hope on her. But it's a risky proposition.
John Gosden's second string Eastern Belle got finally off the mark at the fifth time asking in a Listed race at Newbury. She was a bit unlucky in a couple of races in the past, but at Newbury everything came finally together. She was very gutsy when ridden well up with the pace, under pressure from 3f out, she never surrendered and came clear inside the final furlong. That performance over 10f and good to firm ground must give her a chance here today. Obviously she needs to improve a good deal to make the step from a Listed winner to be competitive in a Group 1, but as outlined before, this race is far a vintage renewal and it's not impossible that Eatern Belle can find the improvement required to be a big runner. She probably will like to be right up with the pace, and Joe Fanning on board is the perfect pilot for that kind of task.
Verdict: Venus De Milo seems a solid favourite, who has fine form in the book and could finally win a deserved Group 1. However, she is opposable over this trip. It looks anyone can win this race if on a good day, but the most value seems to lie in Eastern Belle in my mind. Potentially there is more improvement to come on her third start over 10f, with winning form on quick ground, she is not out of this. --- Eastern Belle @ 20/1 Bet365 - 1pt win
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