Win and your're in! That's the motto of the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga tonight. The winner of the race is guaranteed to run in the Breeders Cup Classic. So it's no surprise to see a competitive line-up for a contest that pays almost $500k to the winner too!
Red-hot favourite Palace Malice is expected to follow up on his four straight wins this year. He's the all dominating sort in this Classic division and despite top weight, should be tough to beat. He won the Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont with authority back in June on his most recent start, despite not having the clearest of runs in the closing stages. However he has to be at his best today in this field, that is for sure. He has all the right tools, but his short price tag doesn't appeal too much to me.
Front-running Moreno is expected to lead the field around today. He has only won twice in 19 career starts, but the track should suit his running-style and he looked improved in his latest start. If he can find back to his fine 3yo form from last year, he can be a big runner. Money spinner Will Take Charge has banked over $3.7 million in his racing career, that says he is an ultra consistent sort. He was a close runner-up in last years Breeders Cup classic, has Grade 1 form to his name and won a Grade 2 as his sole success in 2014. He couldn't win in his last two starts and need to find back to his best though. Big weight doesn't make things an easy task, class is there though. Current price looks fair. Departing won on his seasonal reappearance in fine style and followed up with a good 3rd in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. He needs to find a bit more but further improvement is not impossible, and that makes him an interesting runner.
Multiple Grade 3 winner Romansh was a very honorable third behind Palace Malice in the Metropolitan Handicap. He didn't stay 10f in his subsequent start, so the drop in trip should suit and a good run is one the cards and he has fair place claims. Surely winning claims must have Itsmyluckyday. He won three on the bounce and seemed clearly improved this year. A career best in his latest in the grade 3 Salvator Mile must give him a big chance to feature strongly today. He made an impressive move before the approach of the home bend and won on the bridle in emphatic fashion eventually. The second and third finishers in that race finished first and second in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup subsequently, so the form looks strong. He has to bring this form now into Grade 1 company, but with his progressive profile he might well turn out be the biggest danger to Palace Malice.
Last Gunfire is the mount of Javier Catellano and must enter considerations if he can bring his A-game to the table. Disappointing in his latest, but he made an excellent winning seasonal comeback before, and won the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup last year. Pace might be an issue, but he might be staying on for a place. It's hard to make a case for veteran prayer For Relief and Golden Ticket.
Verdict: Favourite Palace Malice is holding the key to the outcome of the race. If he gets a clear run and runs to his best form, he'll be very hard to beat. But we know that racing doesn't always work that way. So looking for a bit of value, there are some alternatives. Last Gunfire or Moreno seem to be decent each-way material, while Romansh and Departing aren't entirely out of this either with place claims to their name too. The 14/1 for Itsmyluckyday appear to be outstanding value though and he gets the nod from me. His recent form is excellent, he seems still progressing, and should be tactically in a good position to too far off the pace at a track that favours the speed often. It's hard to see him out off the first three and he could be the one who gives Palace Malice a run for the money. --- Itsmyluckyday @ 14/1 VC - 1pt e/w
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