14.55 Haydock - Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) - 12 furlongs: Considering that this is only a Group 3, one has to say it is an excellent renewal of the race. A deep eight runner field, with proven Group horses in the line-up - that is good to see as it is not always the case with these kind of races, as we know all too well. Favourite Hillstar is a worthy favourite on form. He couldn't win a single race this season yet, but his last three performances are all strong form. Close runner-up behind Cavalryman at Newmarket in the Princess of Wales's rates a big performance. My slight worry with him is though, that the drop in trip is not really in his favour. I feel he lacks the speed over the shorter distance and that 12f is probably his optimum. Class can see him through but he certainly need this to be a real stamina test. Yes, he has won over 7f as a juvenile, but all his best form comes over way further, and over 10f he hasn't won in five starts to date.
True Story was one of the Derby fancies after winning the Listed Feilden Stakes in April. He couldn't fulfill the promise in all his subsequent starts and it is hard to say what we can expect from him today. If he can find back to his early season form, then he is in with a chance of course, even more so as the drop in class should be a big help. I find him hard to fancy on recent form.
His stable mate Vancouverite makes more appeal. He was an excellent 3yo, with the highlights of last seasons campaign a success in the Group 2 Guillaume D'Ornano Stakes at Deauville. He clearly isn't regressing now a four year old. His form in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan earlier this year, is a very strong one. He finished a strongly staying on 2nd behind Vercingetorix, who subsequently boosted the form with strong performances in top class company. Vancouverite didn't like the Tapeta surface in the Dubai World Cup, but his UK comeback at Newbury recently showed that he is one to take very seriously today. Back after a break, he travelled like the winner for most parts of the race, however not getting quite the clearest of runs, until in the clear from 2f out, when he made then strong progress. He just failed to peg back the eventual winner, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him coming on a good bit from that run, and being able to turn the form around with Amralah.
Amralah himself is progressive and not to underestimate. He surly will be seen up on front and if he would get a soft lead, he could be well able to exploit that. He will have to improve a bit though, to be really seen as a major contender here. If he is classy enough to do so, remains to be seen. Educate is an interesting runner. So progressive last season, which culminated in success in the Cambridgeshire, he proved subsequently that he is a pattern class horse. Decent performances at Meydan on Group level and two okay performances back in the UK, left the impression that there could be still a bit more to come. He had a tough assignment in his recent Handicap start, so he might have a better chance to go well in this Group 3 today. However it has to be seen if he is quite up to the task to win this. I give him the benefit of the doubt, and would like to think a good run is on the cards, without having the urge to back him today.
Nabucco is a likable sort. Reliable and with good form. He finished a fine third behind Amralah at Newbury recently. I feel he'd be more interesting and in with a better chance with a bit more rain. Danadana has Group winning form, so can't be discounted, however recent form doesn't suggest that today is be an easy task. Three year old Ayrad will be seen to better affect dropping in class, but has still an awful lot to find to be competitive in this strong Group 3.
Verdict: There are some doubts about the main contenders in the betting, which brings Amralah in with a decent chance to run a big race, following his strong recent success. However I fancy Vancouverite to turn the form around. He was a shade unlucky that day, being beaten by a short margin and It wouldn't be a surprise to see him improving from that run. Ground and trip are fine for him, he has strong form in his book and seems a rather big price, taking all into consideration.
Vancouverite @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win
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