Saturdays King George is a race as exciting as it can get. While the status of the race has suffered a bit in the last couple of years in terms of status and importance in the racing calender, this years renewal clearly shapes as a real cracker - thanks to an ultra competitive line-up. One has only to see that we have two recent Royal Ascot winners, an Oaks winner, the current Eclipse winner, a Breeders Cup winner, a Grand Prix De Paris winner, an Irish Derby winner and a favourite who seems to finally fulfil his potential.
Yet I hear people saying this is not a vintage King George, because it lacks a "true champion". I couldn't agree less and feel it isn't fair towards the horses that are due to run on Saturday. Because: This race is full of champions! Okay, there is no Frankel or Sea The Stars in the line-up, but this years renewal must be still one of the most competitive ones in recent history! It is great to see that trainers and connections don't duck away from the challenge, as it happens so often in flat racing. This time we have keen connections though, who want to let the best compete against the best. It should be spectacular, and we should enjoy it.
Yet I hear people saying this is not a vintage King George, because it lacks a "true champion". I couldn't agree less and feel it isn't fair towards the horses that are due to run on Saturday. Because: This race is full of champions! Okay, there is no Frankel or Sea The Stars in the line-up, but this years renewal must be still one of the most competitive ones in recent history! It is great to see that trainers and connections don't duck away from the challenge, as it happens so often in flat racing. This time we have keen connections though, who want to let the best compete against the best. It should be spectacular, and we should enjoy it.
Overview of the runners:
Flintshire, 12/1 - Winner of last years Grand Prix De Paris, subsequently slightly below par, finished 2nd in Prix Niel, no chance in Arc, did well when 2nd behind Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup at Epsom last month, but disappointing when beaten a short favourite in the Grand Prix Saint-Cloud three weeks ago. Ground is key for him, he'll relish the sound surface as his worst performances came all with cut in the ground. Perception is that he still has a bit to find in Group 1 level against very strong opposition.
Leitir Mor, 200/1 - Won a Group 3 at Leopardstown over 7f last year, since then often with pace maker duties equipped and therefore no chance in most races. Same fate likely here again.
Magician, 11/2 - Aiden O'Brien's sole starter was an exceptional three year old. Winner of the Dee Stakes, the Irish 2.000 Guineas and later the Breeders Cup Turf, piping The Fugue on the line. Since then in and out in 2014. Not good enough at Meydan, beat Parish Hall in a Curragh Group 3 over 10f on his comeback run at Irish soil. Not able to confirm this in two subsequent Group 1's when he had to settle for second behind Noble Mission in the Tattersalles Gold Cup and the Prince of Wales's behind The Fugue. Surely a very solid chance in the King George as the highest rated horse in the field. He gets 12f but probably is better suited to a strongly run 10f. So or so, he has to run to his very best to win this. He didn't seem to progress as a four year old and there might be one or two here capable of improving past him.
Mukhadram, 12/1 - Surprise winner of the Coral Eclipse earlier this month, when he was in the right position and all well fancied rivals didn't quite get the run of the race in the same way. He quickened nicely and stayed on strongly to win with two lengths to spare to Trading Leather. A deserved Group 1 after he came short on a couple of occasions. He'll relish ground conditions, however question mark is the trip as he does try 12f for the first time. He is not a sure stayer and won't get his own way in front either. A strong pace is expected with other horses likely to press for the lead. That all counts against him, on the other hand he is a very reliable, solid sort.
Telescope, 9/4 - A hype horse as a to and three year old, when he was unable to fulfil the promise throught his classic season, though. He won the Great Voltigeur but flopped in three Group 3's throughout the season. Beaten twice at the beginning of the new season, he suddenly showed dramatic improvement for the step up to 12f and quick ground. He won the Hardwicke Stakes in those kind of conditions at Royal Ascot last month in runaway fashion and finally seems to become the horse many thought he would be in his classic season. On the basis of this most recent performance, he goes as favourite into the King George and with quick ground expected, it isn't impossible that he can improve further on only his third start over 12f. For all of that, he is an obvious chance.
Trading Leather, 14/1 - Ultra consistent sort who loves fast ground. Won the Irish Derby last year and confirmed that performance with subsequent placed efforts in strong and competitive races, like second placed efforts behind Novellist in the the King George and Declaration Of War in the Juddmonte International. He was a rather disappointing odds-on favourite on his seasonal comeback at Newmarket, when beaten in third, but presented himself clearly improved in the Coral Eclipse when he finished runner-up behind Mukhadram. He had the run of the race but didn't cope with the speed of the eventual winner. The step up in trip to 12f seems logical and on his beloved quick ground he shouldn't have a problem to stay. A good pace would help him to settle. He should run his race yet again, if that is enough to win, is debatable.
Eagle Top, 6/1 - Supplemented at a cost of £75,000 after he win the King Edward VII Stakes in impressive style at Royal Ascot last month. The lightly raced John Gosden trained colt was clearly improved that day after he wasn't right on his first handicap start following a good maiden win on debut. Visually he was extremely impressive at Ascot, when he trailed the field and wasn't in a very favourable position turning for home, when he was also forced to take the widest route around the whole field. Once straighten up in the home straight he appeared to be quickly on the bridle and put the race easily to bed. There'll be much more to come and connections think allot of him, thus he was supplemented for big money. He will find it more difficult in this field to come from a long way off the pace though, as naturally that is a disadvantage at Ascot when you don't get into position from 4f out. However the likely strong pace will help and he looked special the last time. He has to prove that he's up to this class, but it seems very likely that he is indeed.
Romsdal, 33/1 - Lightly raced Halling son who finished a very creditable third in the Epsom Derby behind Australia and Kingston Hill. Good runner-up in the Chaster Vase before. Only win came in a Kempton maiden though and quick ground is not sure to suit. Looks more like a Ledger type, the way he stayed on at Chester and also how he finished in the Derby, when he couldn't keep up with the speedier two horses in front but equally run honestly to the line. Pedigree suggests he would get further with stamina on both sire and particularly dam side. He likes to be rather up with the pace, which could secure him a good position when it matters and the fact that he stays well could be a bonus if he didn't burn too much energy before. For all of that, it's hard to see him winning this though.
Taghrooda, 11/4 - Unbeaten in three starts, highly progressive, hugely impressive winner of the Epsom Oaks. Won that day like a true champion. She still pulled hard over 4f out which would have cost most horses the race but she didn't lose any momentum and continued to travel like a dream. Ground and trip are fine, she can be ridden in any way, and there must be more to come on only her fourth start. She receives loads of weight as a three year old filly, however it has to be said that three year old fillies haven't won the King George for decades. So it is not an easy task, but she must have a cracking chance to go very close at the very least, considering how easily she beat some good horses in the Oaks.
Verdict: Undoubtedly if it comes to recent form, then there are three stand out chances in this field: Telescope, Taghrooda and Eagle Top. Looking for the value in this race, I find it hard to fancy the first two named horses though. For obvious reasons, either Telescope or Taghrooda have cracking chances to win the King George, and me dismissing them in the betting doesn't mean I don't think they are likely to go close. Much the opposite. Telescope over 12f on quick ground can well be able to pull out more and finally win a Group 1. While Taghrooda was mightily impressive in the Oaks and is for me the likeliest winner of the race. However I believe they are too shot in the betting market, considering how competitive this race this. Their prices might be a fair evaluation of their chances, but does not reflect any value.
I do like Romsdal as an each-way chance, as I feel tactically with his ability to stay potentially further, he could be one who keeps going and won't fade away easily. But I can't see him winning either. Trading Leather and Flintshire, from the bigger prices, with conditions in favour, I would expect to go well with a chance to be right in the mix when it matters. Magician if he can find back to his best, is well able to go very close, but he wasn't convincing this season, so it is hard to recommend him. However the outstanding value in the race is Eagle Top at 6/1, which seems way too big in my mind. He used to be an even bigger price not too long ago, but still is seems a very generous offer - if he takes up his chance, as his trainer is not too keen to let him run if the ground dries out any further. But Eagle Top was so spectacular and visually impressive at Royal Ascot, he truly looked a special colt to my eyes with an awful lot of potential. He won on quick ground that day, so that won't be an issue. Only slight worry for me is if he'll be well enough positioned when the field turns for home. But that is a decision we have to trust William Buick. If he isn't too far off when the field turns for home and he isn't forced to go widest, I feel he'll have everything in his hands to go and win the King George.
Eagle Top @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win
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