16:00 Pontefract: Pipalong Stakes (Listed, 1 mile) - This appears to be an open contest, held at the beautiful racing venue of Pontefract. The Listed Pipalong Stakes over 1m lacks an obvious winning contender, however it could easily become a messy race, considering the fact that Pontefract is a kind of quirky track, and interestingly there seems to be an awful lot of pace in the race, which makes it quite a compelling contest, since the track usually prefers horses ridden close to the pace due to the short run-in. There might be a rough battle for position.
Favourit Pavlosk is still generally lightly raced and wasn't disgraced in Group 3 company at Lingfield back in May. She is back over 1m which should suit, but the ground is some kind of a question mark, since her best form came with cut in the ground. She could well be too good for this lot if she can improve further, but it's hard to be too confident in her either, since it's not given that she does improve. Second favourit Dutch Rose is a seasoned campaigner. She is also consistent and ground independent. She hasn't been able to win over 1m in six starts though, so the trip is an obvious concern. Butterfly Mcqueen is one the most interesting contenders. Her recent performance in a Group 3, where she wasn't too far beaten behind subsequent G1 winner Thistle Bird, appears to be decent enough and she might well have still a bit improvement left, now as a four year old. She has won over 1m as well as on quick ground. Question is if the combination of track, trip and ground is really what she wants. Masarah is next best in the betting but she has won only one of her 17 starts on turf and it's hard to see her getting her head in front in this competitive race. The rest of the betting market is 10/1 bar. Which means there should be a bit of value available since the head of the market is hard to fancy given their rather short prices.
I do think it could be worth to give someone a chance who stays a bit further than 1m, given the conditions of this race. And that could make Boonga Roogeta a worthy contender. Normally she seems slightly below what is required to be really competitive in a Listed race, but while this years Pipalong Stakes are competitive in its own right, it is probably not really a particularly strong races in terms of its status as a Listed race. That is where Boonga Roogeta comes into the equation. She is a multiple winner of competitive handicaps ranging in distance from one mile to ten furlongs. It is hard to argue against the fact that she is better the further she goes. However she won some good races over 9f and she loves fast ground. She also prefers to go from the front, and while there is plenty of pace on here plus the fact that she has to overcome a wide draw, I have no doubt that she'll be right up with the pace. She can fight for position and has gate speed. It should be a really quick race with emphasis on stamina, and that would suit her. She also usually does quite well at this kind of quirky, undulating tracks. She won in May on seasonal debut a small handicap at Brighton, couldn't quite follow up when she went too quick in her most recent start. Putting it all together, I feel she has the ability to go close here and conditions that should see her clearly involved in a finish which could be quite messy.
Selection: Boonga Roogeta @ 22/1 Betfair - 1pt e/w
-----------
-----------
Mondays NAP finished a close 2nd. Jazz travelled strongly approaching the 2f marker and took up the lead 1f out, looking like the winner, but then didn't quite get home when the eventual winner put on the pressure staying on strongly.
No comments :
Post a Comment