Belmont Derby - Betting Preview

The inaugural Belmont Derby tonight and some decent horses gonna try to win the big pot. European challenges are lead by impressive UAE Derby winner Toast Of New York. He made an sheer unbelievable transition from winning a class 6 maiden at Wolverhampton to become a run-away-winner of a prestigious Group 2 on the Dubai World Cup night. Question mark is obviously if he can transform this to turf now as he might be a horse that is simply very much suited to synthetic surfaces. His only start on turf is inconclusive, as it was his debut and he was a good deal beaten that day. First time lasix will boost his chances I believe, and he must have every chance to go very close from pole position, and the track, in theory should suit. For all of that though, I can't have him for 5/2. He might well be above this lot, but make no mistake there are some good horses in the field and he first has to beat them. I look elsewhere. 

The other European runners are interesting. O'Brien's Adelaide ran a very good race at Ascot when 2nd behind Free Eagle. That was over 12f and he looked rather beaten for speed than for stamina in my mind. He has fine form over 10f though and ground won't be an issue. He'll go close. 4/1 is a fair price. From the French challengers Gailo Chop makes most appeal. He is a multiple Group winner at this stage, still lightly raced and can improve further. If this kind of contest suits him remains to be seen. The Europeans won't have this all their way though and it might pay to look for value in the domestic challengers. Global View is a Grade 2 winner over 9f on turf, he's by Galileo so the step up in trip could suit. He finished 2nd over a mile behind Bobby's Kitten, staying on nicely. He might be come too late with his challenge though, as he usually is ridden with bit of restraint. So is Dance With Fate, who could be interesting if he can transform his polytrack form to Turf. already mentioned Bobby's Kitten is a really interesting contender. He tries a new trip, never raced that far, but has plenty of stamina on both sire and dam side, suggesting 10f will be absolutely fine. He finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year, when he set the track alight the first half of the race with a record breaking pace. He did well to finish as close as he did in the end in third. He won two Conditions races on Turf this year, but is a Graded winner too from last season. His only disappointing performance came on polytrack. His most recent performance was impressive when he quickened nicely here at Belmont. If he can settle today, he has a major chance, as stamina shouldn't be an issue. But is ability to quicken as well the probable tactical advantage being handily ridden, might be enough to fend off all rivals. Coolmore's Gala Award is another one I want to highlight. He won a Grade 3 over 9f earlier this year and has good recent winning form. His only poor form came on polytrack. He is nicely bred, should improve for the additional furlong on pedigree, and looked in his races always like a grinder, one who can sustain a high pace over a long period, while he is not one who can quicken instantaneously. But since he is ridden usually right up with the pace, he outstays his opposition. That's good skills that he could use today to run a big race. 

Verdict: The home challengers seem to be overlooked in the betting. Bobby's Kitten is a high class runner who has the ability to produce a turn of foot and can race from the front or up with the pace, which should be a tactical advantage at Belmont's turf track. Stamina shouldn't be an issue if he settles. Gala Award has the right tools to win a really big race and this test seems the right one to bring the best out of him. Wide draw is a concern but he should improve for the new trip.

Bobby's Kitten @ 8/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Gala Award @ 16/1 SkyBet - 1pt win