The Fugue is a worthy favourite coming into this race with impressive form, since she beat a top class field at Ascot. She has conditions right in favour with the quick ground, and she is the class act, no doubt. However I do wonder if she is quite as effective at Sandown as she was at Ascot. Sandown as a track might not suit her entirely with the stiff finish and usually it rather suits horses that are able to maintain a high speed for a long time, then does it suit horses with a turn of foot. So for that reason I have to take her on, given her current short price.
Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill was taken out of the Irish Derby last week due to the quick ground. Now he is dropping to 10f after his gallant 2nd in the Epsom Derby behind Australia. The ground at Sandown is quick today, but connections have to take their chance since they didn't run last week. For obvious reasons this counts against him. If on this fast going, over a shorter trip, he has enough speed remains to be seen. He doesn't make much appeal to me though.
The 2.000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder is stepping up in trip. He ran a very good race behind Kingman at Ascot and given the impression that he might not entierely unsuited by 10f. However given his short price, further improvement is well needed against tough opposition and there are doubts about his ability to get the trip nonetheless, so literally I wouldn't bet on it to stay a fast run 1m 2f contest and I have to pass him. Verrazano is slightly below European G1 class I think and 10f might stretch his stamina too. His limited seemed 9f in the US. We will learn allot about him today though I think. Maybe this is exactly what he wants and the track should suit him I feel. But for all of that, he's not for me in this contest, even if I was a big fan of his in the US. Stable mate War Command might get the 10f trip, given a chance by pedigree and the way he stayed on at Ascot. That says he was still rather disappointing that day as he was in the Guineas. He might simply not be as good a 3yo as he was a juvenile. He has to improve for the new trip a good deal anyway, to be really competitive here. I do like him allot though, yet as a betting proposition he is way too risky.
Mukhadram and True Story both are grand horses with chances to run their race - if that is good enough, I doubt it. Mukhadram ran well last year in the same race, but is up against it this year. He should find a couple too good again, as he did at Ascot. True Story might well be better over quick ground and 10f then what he showed in his last races. But on the back of one single Listed race success it is hard to like him from a betting point of view.
I do really fancy Trading Leather though at big odds of 18/1. He needs fast ground to be seen at his best and he gets these conditions today. His record over 10f is more than decent, given that he won a Listed race over this trip and finished twice runner up in Group races last year, in the Dante Stakes and later the G1 Juddmonte behind Declaration of War, which is pretty good form after all. Obviously he gets further as he is an Irish Derby winner, but therefore Sandown might very much suit his racing style I feel with its stiff finish. I wouldn't reed too much in to his recent flop at Newmarket. He didn't settle at all that day. I feel he is bound to run a big race today though. If that is good enough to win has to be seen, but he should be right there in the shake-up and he is the value in the race in my mind.
Trading Leather @ 18/1 Be365 - 1pt e/w
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