Thursday, July 10, 2014

Racing Selections: Thursday 10th July 2014

13.40 Newmarket: Bahrain Trophy, Group 3 - It is hard to make a case for most runners in this Group 3 over 1m 5f, starting with Bunker who seems not progressing and has stamina to prove over this trip. Mark Johnston's Hartnell won a Listed race at Ascot recently, however over 2m and has to prove he is speedy enough against some rivals that seem to be better suited to this kind of test. Odeon with first time hood drops in class and steps up slightly in trip, a combination that might see him finding back to form. However it's hard to be too confident about that. Lightly raced Corsican won at the second time of asking a maiden at Kempton. If he is up to this class remains to be seen. Vent De Force is a progressive handicapper, but this is much tougher and the quick ground is a major worry. Honor Bound won the Lingfield Oaks trial, was subsequently found out for class in the actual Epsom Oaks, but should find this easier and has to be taken seriously. So has to be the progressive Windshear who was runner-up in competitive handicaps the last two starts. 

However the most interesting horse in the field is the lightly races John Gosden colt Forever Now. He ran well over course and distance on his seasonal reappearance, which was also his second only start, when he finished close 2nd behind Wonderstruck who finished subsequently not too far beaten in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Forever Now learned from that effort and might light work of his opposition in a subsequent maiden at Doncaster last month. He made virtually all, quickened from 4f out and finished the race in really good style, suggesting he is certainly a pattern winner in the making. with natural improvement, he should have potentially too much for the opposition in this field. --- Forever Now @ 10/3 Paddy Power - 4pts win


19.15 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 9f - This race over 9f is a test that should be dominated by the three year olds. They have an advantage in the weights due to the age allowance and all three have credentials that make them candidates to go close. Desert Society is probably the weakest of the trio, but has a very good apprentice in the saddle. Mindyourownbusiness ran in an ultra competitive handicap at Ascot and is better judged on his fine win at Yarmouth before. He should go close if he can handle track and ground. 

However Sir Guy Porteous makes most appeal of all in the field. He seems a near certainty with the weights extremely in his favour. He won at Carlisle in really fine style, making all from the front and going away easily from the rest of the field in the final furlong. He came well clear of the second, who himself came well clear of the rest. He's turned out soon again, so has to race under the standard 6lb penalty but should in theory up much higher and as soon as the handicappers get their chance, they will put him up much higher. He should be the best horse in this race, has the weights in favour, strong form, no problem with the ground and also should be fine with the trip since his pedigree is stamina ladden - only odd Epsom can stop him. --- Sir Guy Porteous @ 11/4 Bet365 - 5pts win

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Wednesdays NAP Gang Warfare was extremely keen in the preliminaries of the race, was keen in the  early parts of the race then almost inevitably and was held up a long way off the pace in an impossible position, because it was a huge advantage in this race to be up with the pace. In the end the winner, second and third were all prominent . GW is surely better than that. However he didn't finish too promising and might not have too much in hand after all.

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