The Durban July - South Africa's greatest and most prestigious race is almost upon us! R3.5 Million are on offer when the 16 starters are set to thunder down the home straight of Greyville racecourse tomorrow afternoon. A distance of 2.200 meters they all have to master, with the chance to become a racing legend as soon as they cross the winning post. Te field is brutally deep this year, with a bunch of super impressive three year olds and some good older horses. All in all this kind of "Super Handicap" promises to be spectacular!
The main contenders:
Louis The King, 4/1 - 3yo, Triple Crown winner. Won the Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f. Finished 3rd behind Legislate and Rake's Chestnut in the Daily News 2000 lto (10f). Not quite having the run of the race, coming from well off the pace and having to come through the whole field. Stayed on nicely. Should come on for that run and will relish the additional furlong. Class act. However will need an awful lot of luck from his likely position well off the pace and the likely slow pace will count against him. If he wins it, he's the real deal. Can't have him for his short price.
Legislate, 11/2 - best 3yo in RSA. winner of the Cape Derby, KRA Guineas and the Daily News recently. Has beaten all fancied July runners in that most recent race. Usually races off the pace and has a wide draw. But has the ability to quicken even of a slow pace like no other horse in the country right now. Brutally impressive in all his races this year, the turn of foot is from another world and the only real concern is the trip. Never raced that far and almost caught in the Daily News, be it because he was idling or ran out off steam. But he's a son of a July winner and the way he produced his turn of foot coming from last and around the whole field in the Daily News suggests he has every chance to get the trip. The horse they all have to beat.
Futura, 13/2 - 3yo colt, just made it into the final field and that under controversial circumstances. The dark/hype horse always talked up since winning a Conditions race in brutally impressive style. Was 40/1 for the July at some stage, is now one of the favourites. However he finished only 3rd in a July trial, needs to improve allot to be competitive here. That says he easily could do so over this trip with the right pedigree and a nice light weight. His public gallop was mightily impressive. Not my type of horse I like to get involved with for this price. Tomorrow will show if all the hype is justified.
Rake's Chestnut, 15/2: 3yo colt, Lightly raced, only win came over 6f to date. But right pedigree for July and extremely unlucky in the Daily News when close 2nd behind Legislate. Hampered at crucial stage, found his stride again and finished super strongly. Should relish additional furlong. Unexposed and not quite clear if he is able to confirm that run but if he can he's a big runner. Opinions will be divided here. With only one minor win over sprint trip this is not for me. But he's certainly a very interesting contender and I can see why he has many supporters.
Capetown Noir, 11/1 - 4yo colt, best miler in the country, stylish winner of the premier 1m Grade 1 contest the Queen's Plate earlier this year. Not as strong over further, 3rd in Daily News last year, 7th in last years July, no good recent form. First time blinkers, might have adverse effect. He looks to find it tough to stay this trip and be competitive in such a strong field, even more so as he has a huge weight to shoulder. Hard to fancy.
Espumanti, 12/1 - 4yo filly, talented, De Kock runners always to take serious. Won Betting World 1900 in fine style. Fillies find it often tough in this race and as a 4yo it's not any easier. Big weight to shoulder and while she is classy, it's hard to see her being good enough beating top class 3yo's giving so much weight away. Place claims.
Captain America, 12/1 - 3yo colt, classy individual, consistent and rarely disappoints, but very aggressive, finds it hard to settle and slightly below top class. Might be better gelding. Better in the weight now compared to the big fancies, but he would need to improve a good deal to win it. Certainly place claims and solid contender though.
In The Fast Lane, 12/1 - 3yo filly, best three year old filly, multiple Grade 1 winner, stays 10f. Strong recent form, good draw and good weight. However she'll might find it tough against the males here and not sure if the additional furlong suit her entirely. A decent run is surly expected though.
Halve The Defict, 16/1 - 5yo gelding, connections won the last two July's. Largely seen as the pick of the older horses. Not yet won a G1 but improved with age and nice prep run lto. should get the trip and has the champion on board. Won G2 over 10f nicely earlier this year. One of a few horses who like to be prominent and could easily get run of the race and quicken off a slow pace when it matters. His recorded gallop at home last week looked massive too. Big chance to finish at least in the top five with conditions in favour.
Cherry On The Top, 22/1 - 4yo filly, Triple Tiara winner last year when in form of her life. Not quite as good this year, but distance will suit. Track might not quite suit as more galloping one is her game. Also as a 4yo filly she'll find it very tough in general against this opposition and it's hard to see her any better than running on strongly and finishing in the top five.
King Of Pain, 33/1 - 4yo gelding, top class animal, won the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month when attempting to make all and holding on super strongly. Stamina is his game and he will relish to go further again. He might well enjoy the run of the race from the front and can set a rather pedestrian, even pace which will suit him to wind it up turning for home. He's tough and genuine. Big negative: top weight, 60kg is a very big ask and he need to be at his absolute best with everything going for him. Not impossible, but a place in the top 5 is absolute within reach.
Verdict: Louis The King might well turn out the be the real deal, but he has conditions not really favouring him. Legislate is the horse they all have to beat. If he stays, which seems likely, his turn of foot will probably kill them all. His last three performances raised the hair on my neck, and it is well worth to watch as it simply is what racing is all about. 11/2 seems quite generous, taking all into consideration. Halve The Deficit as the pick of the older horses could have a tactical advantage, has good form and I find it hard to see him out of the top five with a chance to quicken at a crucial time and left the rest for wanting. 16/1 too big in my mind. King Of Pain, despite his huge weight, makes each-way appeal as a 33/1 chance. He can go from the front and will give it his all. Super recent form, stays. Might find the way too much win but place claims at least and price is too big imo.
Legislate @ 11/2 Sportingbet - 3pts win
Halve The Deficit @ 16/1 Sportingbet - 1pt e/w
King Of Pain @ 33/1 Sportingbet - 0.5pts e/w
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