Monday, December 1, 2014

Betting - Monday 1st December 2014

15.30 Wolverhampton: Handicap (Class 3, 2m 119y)

Cousin Khee: Narrowly denied over 2m at Shouthwell lto, multiple NHF 2m winner on polytrack. Good deal above last winning mark due to good placed efforts.
Buckland: Prolific AW performer, much improved last year and ran well in defeat on couple of occasions this season. Once runner-up over 2m off 96. Runner-up at Kempton lto, though fair and square beaten – this is easier and should go well.
Dame Lucy: Improved middle-distance runner this year, though disappointing when last seen. First start on AW may work but trip is big question mark.
Entihaa: Consistent stayer who find winning difficult. Landed Handicap at York in September, not so good last two. Needs to find improvement for AW debut and looks not particularly well handicapped.
Hidden Justice: Fair multi-purpose performer, will surly get the trip and goes well on AW. Two big performances in October after coming back from break. Should go well.
Mister Bob: Improving low-grade stayer. Has loads to find on ratings. Low weight can help.
Uncle Bernie: Rapidly improving this year over staying trips. Won three of last four and 3/3 over CD. Very impressive lto and despite having a bit to find on ratings, he can go really close if he improves again. Turned out quickly under a penalty, he's given a good chance. 

Verdict: The two improvers at the bottom of the weights are heading the market and surly have a sexy profile. Uncle Bernie in particular seems to love it around Wolverhampton and is bound for a big performance turned out quickly under a penalty. I'm not so sure about Mister Bob who may have the improvement in him it takes in this hot contest, but he is way to short in my mind. Hidden Justice is very interesting runner on AW debut. Doing well lately, he'll get the trip and is on a fair mark. But on the other hand his sire's offspring didn't seem to perform particularly well on Tapeta in the past, and he looks nothing more than a fair price to me. Cousin Khee is a very good horse on his day, though he seems high enough in the mark at the moment. However Buckland looks a rather big price given how well he did in some really hot staying races this year. He hasn't won over 2m yet but has been placed and gone close in the majority of his starts over this trip and finished a close runner-up of a mark off 96 in an extremely competitive handicap last season. He may not be that good after all this year, but his 2nd in a strong race over 2m at Kempton a fortnight ago is the best form on offer in this field. Todays race looks easier on paper, and that must gibe Buckland a fine shot to go close. Obviously the trip may stretch him but there seems not to be too much pace on here, so that should help. 

Buckland @ 5/1 VC - 5pts win