The Big Race Preview - 2014 King George

Saturdays King George is a race as exciting as it can get. While the status of the race has suffered a bit in the last couple of years in terms of status and importance in the racing calender, this years renewal clearly shapes as a real cracker - thanks to an ultra competitive line-up. One has only to see that we have two recent Royal Ascot winners, an Oaks winner, the current Eclipse winner, a Breeders Cup winner, a Grand Prix De Paris winner, an Irish Derby winner and a favourite who seems to finally fulfil his potential.

Yet I hear people saying this is not a vintage King George, because it lacks a "true champion". I couldn't agree less and feel it isn't fair towards the horses that are due to run on Saturday. Because: This race is full of champions! Okay, there is no Frankel or Sea The Stars in the line-up, but this years renewal must be still one of the most competitive ones in recent history! It is great to see that trainers and connections don't duck away from the challenge, as it happens so often in flat racing. This time we have keen connections though, who want to let the best compete against the best. It should be spectacular, and we should enjoy it.

Overview of the runners:

Flintshire, 12/1 - Winner of last years Grand Prix De Paris, subsequently slightly below par, finished 2nd in Prix Niel, no chance in Arc, did well when 2nd behind Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup at Epsom last month, but disappointing when beaten a short favourite in the Grand Prix Saint-Cloud three weeks ago. Ground is key for him, he'll relish the sound surface as his worst performances came all with cut in the ground. Perception is that he still has a bit to find in Group 1 level against very strong opposition.

Leitir Mor, 200/1 - Won a Group 3 at Leopardstown over 7f last year, since then often with pace maker duties equipped and therefore no chance in most races. Same fate likely here again.

Magician, 11/2 - Aiden O'Brien's sole starter was an exceptional three year old. Winner of the Dee Stakes, the Irish 2.000 Guineas and later the Breeders Cup Turf, piping The Fugue on the line. Since then in and out in 2014. Not good enough at Meydan, beat Parish Hall in a Curragh Group 3 over 10f on his comeback run at Irish soil. Not able to confirm this in two subsequent Group 1's when he had to settle for second behind Noble Mission in the Tattersalles Gold Cup and the Prince of Wales's behind The Fugue. Surely a very solid chance in the King George as the highest rated horse in the field. He gets 12f but probably is better suited to a strongly run 10f. So or so, he has to run to his very best to win this. He didn't seem to progress as a four year old and there might be one or two here capable of improving past him. 

Mukhadram, 12/1 - Surprise winner of the Coral Eclipse earlier this month, when he was in the right position and all well fancied rivals didn't quite get the run of the race in the same way. He quickened nicely and stayed on strongly to win with two lengths to spare to Trading Leather. A deserved Group 1 after he came short on a couple of occasions. He'll relish ground conditions, however question mark is the trip as he does try 12f for the first time. He is not a sure stayer and won't get his own way in front either. A strong pace is expected with other horses likely to press for the lead. That all counts against him, on the other hand he is a very reliable, solid sort. 

Telescope, 9/4 - A hype horse as a to and three year old, when he was unable to fulfil the promise throught his classic season, though. He won the Great Voltigeur but flopped in three Group 3's throughout the season. Beaten twice at the beginning of the new season, he suddenly showed dramatic improvement for the step up to 12f and quick ground. He won the Hardwicke Stakes in those kind of conditions at Royal Ascot last month in runaway fashion and finally seems to become the horse many thought he would be in his classic season. On the basis of this most recent performance, he goes as favourite into the King George and with quick ground expected, it isn't impossible that he can improve further on only his third start over 12f. For all of that, he is an obvious chance. 

Trading Leather, 14/1 - Ultra consistent sort who loves fast ground. Won the Irish Derby last year and confirmed that performance with subsequent placed efforts in strong and competitive races, like second placed efforts behind Novellist in the the King George and Declaration Of War in the Juddmonte International. He was a rather disappointing odds-on favourite on his seasonal comeback at Newmarket, when beaten in third, but presented himself clearly improved in the Coral Eclipse when he finished runner-up behind Mukhadram. He had the run of the race but didn't cope with the speed of the eventual winner. The step up in trip to 12f seems logical and on his beloved quick ground he shouldn't have a problem to stay. A good pace would help him to settle. He should run his race yet again, if that is enough to win, is debatable. 

Eagle Top, 6/1 - Supplemented at a cost of £75,000 after he win the King Edward VII Stakes in impressive style at Royal Ascot last month. The lightly raced John Gosden trained colt was clearly improved that day after he wasn't right on his first handicap start following a good maiden win on debut. Visually he was extremely impressive at Ascot, when he trailed the field and wasn't in a very favourable position turning for home, when he was also forced to take the widest route around the whole field. Once straighten up in the home straight he appeared to be quickly on the bridle and put the race easily to bed. There'll be much more to come and connections think allot of him, thus he was supplemented for big money. He will find it more difficult in this field to come from a long way off the pace though, as naturally that is a disadvantage at Ascot when you don't get into position from 4f out. However the likely strong pace will help and he looked special the last time. He has to prove that he's up to this class, but it seems very likely that he is indeed.

Romsdal, 33/1 - Lightly raced Halling son who finished a very creditable third in the Epsom Derby behind Australia and Kingston Hill. Good runner-up in the Chaster Vase before. Only win came in a Kempton maiden though and quick ground is not sure to suit. Looks more like a Ledger type, the way he stayed on at Chester and also how he finished in the Derby, when he couldn't keep up with the speedier two horses in front but equally run honestly to the line. Pedigree suggests he would get further with stamina on both sire and particularly dam side. He likes to be rather up with the pace, which could secure him a good position when it matters and the fact that he stays well could be a bonus if he didn't burn too much energy before. For all of that, it's hard to see him winning this though.

Taghrooda, 11/4 - Unbeaten in three starts, highly progressive, hugely impressive winner of the Epsom Oaks. Won that day like a true champion. She still pulled hard over 4f out which would have cost most horses the race but she didn't lose any momentum and continued to travel like a dream. Ground and trip are fine, she can be ridden in any way, and there must be more to come on only her fourth start. She receives loads of weight as a three year old filly, however it has to be said that three year old fillies haven't won the King George for decades. So it is not an easy task, but she must have a cracking chance to go very close at the very least, considering how easily she beat some good horses in the Oaks. 

Verdict: Undoubtedly if it comes to recent form, then there are three stand out chances in this field: Telescope, Taghrooda and Eagle Top. Looking for the value in this race, I find it hard to fancy the first two named horses though. For obvious reasons, either Telescope or Taghrooda have cracking chances to win the King George, and me dismissing them in the betting doesn't mean I don't think they are likely to go close. Much the opposite. Telescope over 12f on quick ground can well be able to pull out more and finally win a Group 1. While Taghrooda was mightily impressive in the Oaks and is for me the likeliest winner of the race. However I believe they are too shot in the betting market, considering how competitive this race this. Their prices might be a fair evaluation of their chances, but does not reflect any value. 

I do like Romsdal as an each-way chance, as I feel tactically with his ability to stay potentially further, he could be one who keeps going and won't fade away easily. But I can't see him winning either. Trading Leather and Flintshire, from the bigger prices, with conditions in favour, I would expect to go well with  a chance to be right in the mix when it matters. Magician if he can find back to his best, is well able to go very close, but he wasn't convincing this season, so it is hard to recommend him. However the outstanding value in the race is Eagle Top at 6/1, which seems way too big in my mind. He used to be an even bigger price not too long ago, but still is seems a very generous offer - if he takes up his chance, as his trainer is not too keen to let him run if the ground dries out any further. But Eagle Top was so spectacular and visually impressive at Royal Ascot, he truly looked a special colt to my eyes with an awful lot of potential. He won on quick ground that day, so that won't be an issue. Only slight worry for me is if he'll be well enough positioned when the field turns for home. But that is a decision we have to trust William Buick. If he isn't too far off when the field turns for home and he isn't forced to go widest, I feel he'll have everything in his hands to go and win the King George.

Eagle Top @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win 

Wednesday Night Selections - 23rd July 2014

19.55 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f - A compact and competitive field in this feature race of a decent Leicester evening card. The six year old Mister Fizz shares the top weight and comes into this race in good form. In all his three starts this season he has been competitive and was never far beaten. Not a bad performance in his latest at Epsom, when he attempted to make all, fought hard but seemed to tire in the closing stages, even though he also stumbled around the 1f marker which cost momentum. He followed up on his impressive success in a three-runner Handicap at Haydock, though that form has to bee taken with caution since it came on extreme ground conditions in a very small field. Five pounds higher tomorrow, Mister Fizz has to run to a career best, which is not impossible since he seems still improving. 

Kuda Huraa was well  beaten last time out but he is probably better judged on his penultimate performance when he ran out a nice 3rd at Windsor, a form that works out well through strong subsequent performances from the winner and runner-up. Kuda Huraa is rather lightly raced on the turf, he tried jumping for a while and raced on the All-Weather earlier in his career. His best performance came at Epsom last summer when he was only beaten by a head in a very competitive class 3 Handicap.of a mark off 85 - he is currently on the same mark, and proved his competitiveness with the Windsor race. Quick ground is very much what he wants, which is what he gets here at Leicester. The trip is no issue at all, which says Kuda Huraa has conditions in his favour and could be a big runner. 

Progressive Dolphin Village achieved a career best at Thirsk last month when he landed a good Class 3 Handicap in fine style. The way he pulled clear suggested there could be still more to come and he'll relish the conditions at Leicester tomorrow. He has to defy a new career highest mark and is expected to start favourite at the off. Monsieur Rieussec is another well fancied runner with a similar profile like Dolphin Village, to a certain extent at least. Monsieur Rieussec has not too many miles on the clock yet and was progressive last season, but he appears to be in the grip of the Handicapper, so that the step up to 12f must bring out some further improvement to see him in with a realistic winning chance. The betting market suggests that he'll be fine over a distance, but on pedigree there isn't a clear evidence that he stays that far. In fact it is far from obvious. The fact that he never appeared to be crying out for a longer trip on his two starts over 10f, doesn't instill any confidence either. 

Veterab Tepmokea was disappointing at Chester recently, but finished a fine 2nd at Thirsk in the race that Dolphin Village did win.. Tepmokea attempted to make all and went off very quick, leading the field by a big margin throughout the race and was very gutsy when put under pressure by horses left and right to him in the closing stages. He couldn't cope with Dolphin Village's attack, however did fend off all the rest of the pursuers and was less than two lengths beaten in the end. A 4lb swing in the weights with Dolphin Village must give him a fair chance to turn the table with that rival. HAyley Turner's mount Incendo is one from one over course and distance, but should find it difficult to land a blow in this field off his current mark. 

Verdict: It seems a more open race than the betting suggests. Dolphin Village must have a fair chance to follow up on his recent success, while Mister Fizz has the potential improve further too. Most appeal on current prices makes Kuda Huraa who is a very dangerous runner with conditions to suit if he can run to the form he showed at Windsor in May. Tepmokea's gutsy performance at Thirsk was eye-catching. Better in the weights now compared to Dolphin Village, he should be very much involved in the shake-up as well. 

Kuda Huraa @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Tepmokea @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

18.35 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile - A race that could be dominated by the three year olds, brings lightly raced and well seasoned horses together in a typical mid-summer contest. The two three year olds bring winning form to the table. Most notably Luca Cumani's colt Alketios. He broke his maiden tag on third attempt at Haydock last month. He won comfortably in the end that day, but was made work hard it and seemed to be rather one paced and simply outstayed his rivals eventually. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him doing better over further, even though his fair looking opening mark gives him chances over a mile too. 

The other three year old in the line-up is trained by none else than Sir Michael Stoute. The Oasis Dream colt Matravers won a rather poor looking maiden at Leicester over 7f recently on his fourth career start. He tries a mile again tomorrow, which shouldn't be too much of an issue on pedigree though. The Handicapper has given him a chance with an opening mark of 73. However I feel he needs to be better than that to land this. 

Top weight Ogbourne Downs is a winner of three races already and has been in good form in recent month. He'll love the quick Sandown ground as his most recent Brighton win gives him a chance to be competitive, however he hasn't won of higher than 79 yet, so he needs to find some improvement somewhere. Seven year old First Post is a three times course and distance winner and needs to be taken seriously. He is down to his last winning mark and run well more often than not this season. On the other hands it remains to be seen if he is still capable of pulling off a win from his current marks as he is not getting any younger.

The only filly in the race Annina is a very interesting runner. She won a maiden back in September 2012 on her debut in a mightily impressive performance, and got subsequently a big opening mark allocated. She clearly wasn't up to it, but finally at Newbury in her lasted start, she showed some sort of return to form - then rated 80. Over 7f she led the field but got outpaced from over 3f out. She clearly didn't have the speed of some others, but she stayed on very well to finish 3rd. On this performance and on pedigree she clearly needs further. So to tackle a mile will help her, she might need even 10f to be seen at her best though. For now, with the new trip and a fair mark, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her improving a bit, which would give her a good chance to win this race. 

Verdict: The three year olds have a fine chance due to the weight for age allowance, however both are far from convincing chances to justify their short price tag. The filly Annina makes appeal as the value chance of the race as she should be happy over the trip and ground and could show more than what she did so far off a decent mark. 

Annina @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

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Sunday was a disaster for us. My Titania was a disappointing third without looking really dangerous at any point of the race. No excuses for that, she doesn't seem to be good enough and in hindsight it was a poor bet considering the short price.Our second selection Ponfeigh didn't do any better and was beaten before the race realy started. Disappointing. 

Curragh Selections - Sunday 20th July

15.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Group 2) - This nine furlong contest seem to be all about the talented John Oxx filly My Titania. The Sea The stars daughter was surprisingly precocious last season as a juvenile, when she won two of her three starts. My Titania won a Leopardstown maiden, beating a couple of decent horses that day. Runner-up Afternoon Sunlight developed into a 1.000 Guineas trial winner, while third Lahinch Classics finished later a close runner-up in an Oaks trial behind the subsequent second and third of the English and Irish Oaks. My Titania went on to win a 7f Group 3 at the Curragh in nice style and was then installed as one of the favourites for next years Guineas. She missed that as we know now, and instead she made a belated return to the racetrack in the Grade 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, stepping up to 1m for the first time. Things didn't go to plan there as she found herself right on top of the field soon after the start, with no pace on whatsoever. My Titania pulled like a train and must have burned and awful lot of energy in those early stages of the race. Once the pace was on, she travelled very comfortably - in fact she travelled best of all like the winner, on the bridle until the 2f marker. However, once off the bridle, she found very little. At least she stayed on a bit. On the basis of that run, it is probably easy to assume that she will improve fitness wise, and that a further step up in trip to 9f doesn't have to be an issue. Her pedigree gives her every chance to stay the trip easily. The quick ground is fine for her too, and dropping in class, should help certainly too.

What about the rest of the field? Some good rivals in the line-up, no doubt about that. Peace Burg ran a very fine race in the Falmouth Stakes, and rates a clear danger today, with conditions sure to suit. Wannabe Better is a fair, consistent filly, she is a listed winner but hasn't won at the Curragh in eight starts and might be a bit below the standard required to win this. Odeliz is also a consistent sort and up to this level for sure. Her second place behind Thistle Bird at Epsom last month gives her a chance here, she might want a bit further though and could be found out for speed. Mango Diva has won on Group 3 level in the past and will be happy on the quick ground, she has to run to her best though, so has Indigo Lady, and probably need to find a bit of improvement as well, to really feature here. Lahinch Classics is a lightly raced filly, who rates a big danger if she can improve on her fourth start. She might found this trip a bit on the short side I suspect, and was beaten by My Titania quite easily last season. So it remains to be seen how competitive she can be over 9f on quick ground today, but as the only other 3yo, she is on level weights and that makes her a big runner. 

Verdict: My Titania is NAP material. With the weight for age allowance and her undoubted class, she should be better than all the older horses here. If she gets the trip and  a clear passage, it is hard to see her getting beaten. Lahinch Classics and Peace Burg are the biggest dangers. --- My Titania [NAP] @ 11/10 Bet365 - 6pts win

15.15 Curragh: Meld Stakes (Group 3) - Only four runners in a graded contest is always a disappointment, but we still an intriguing and competitive contest on our hands. Parish Hall seems the leading contender for the older horses. He is very consistent, however finds it hard to get his head in front and can't be backed with any confidence. Aiden O'Brien's Festive Cheer finished 3rd in last years Irish Derby, was disappointing subsequently. The drop in trip might help him to regain his old form. Afternoon Sunlight tries the trip for the first time. She won a 1.000 Guineas trial in nice style. On pedigree 10f seems possible, however her 70 days absence from the racetrack is a worry. The other 3yo Ponfeigh is clearly the most interisting runner. He found the Irish Derby too hot and the trip probably too far, dropping to ten will surly help, and seems very much possible on pedigree. He is lightly raced and unexposed but showed loads of potential when winning a conditions race at Navan in extremely impressive style. He travelled strongly and produced a stunning turn of foot to win easily and looked a Group winner in the making. Ponfeigh is expexted to improve past all the other rivals in this race and on current odds is the one I like to be on here. --- Ponfeigh @ 4/1 VC - 3pts win

Late selection for Haydock, Saturday 19th July

19.00 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 14f - Quality handicap considering the class of the race, with some good and competitive sorts in the race. It seems rather open, even though Lady Cecil's Perfect Summer proves popular and the filly tops the market quite comfortably. But she won't have all her own way, even though she is interesting if she can run to the form over this trip that she showed on her penultimate start. 

Most interesting contender in the field considering the current odds, is Ralph Beckett's Aldborough. The four year old is still lightly raced and tries this trip for the first time. He clearly wasn't right the last time at Kempton, though that performance is a worry. However before that he won really nicely a Handicap over 12f at Chepstow in soft conditions. So the rain that has been coming over the day at Haydock today, should be in his favour. On pedigree he should have a very decent chance to stay the trip and it might well bring out further improvement. Of a mark of 76 he might not be finished yet, so I'll give him a chance to be a big runner in this field. --- Aldborough @ 9/1 Betfred - 2pts win

Irish Oaks - Betting Preview

Cracking renewal of the Irish Oaks, despite the absence of Epsom Oaks winner Taghrooda. However the 2nd and 3rd of that race are here today and try to get a Group 1 on the board. Either Tarfasha and Volume are obvious chances, their form is clearly standing out and it's hard to argue against them. There seems little between them but I feel Volume will be much more happy on the galloping Curragh round. He'll attempt to make all and that can be a successful plan here. If you want to argue against them, though, you could state that this a hot race today, that they have to confirm that they are really up to the task and that both got pretty much a clear passage in the Epsom Oaks. On current prices, I would prefer Volume, but I like to look elsewhere for value, cause the Curragh is a much different track to anything these two have encountered yet. Even though Tarfasha did run here in the past. I don't say she isn't a worthy favourite, but short enough in the betting for sure. 

I can't have the O'Brien trio Tapestry, Palace and Marvellous. I doubt that they are either good enough or happy of this trip. Recent Ribblesdale winner Bracelet must be taken very seriously today though. She ran a mighty race on her first try over 12f and should be in with a big shout today. Runner-up in that race was Lustrous. A horse I do really like. She tried the trip for the first time that day and clearly stayed it. In contract to Bracelet, she didn't get a clear run though. She travelled nicely in rear turning for home, but got stuck in traffic and had to switch wide, delaying her run, which meant she had also to find her stride quickly once in the clear. She stayed on really strongly to finish 2nd and it could be argued that with a clear run she would have been very close to the winner eventually. She has to prove that today and her running style might not be a perfect fit for the Curragh, but she is well overpriced and worth a a bit of money.

From the other long-shots I do feel Ballybacka Queen could run a big race. She steps up quite dramatically in trip, however she is bred to get the Oaks distance, which in fact should suit much better than all the trips she raced over so far. She won a maiden over 7f, as her only success to date, but her 3rd behind Afternoon Sunlight at Leopardstown in a Group 3 over 1m is interesting. She was outpaced at the rear of the field turning for home, but she stayed on very strongly, clearly indicating she needs further. Not a surprise that she didn't follow up in another race over a mile, but now she tackles 12f for the first time and that could easily see out some improvement. If she is good enough, if the ground is what she wants - well we'll find out. But at 100/1 I think I give her some sort of a chance to be in the money. 

Lustrous @ 25/1 StanJames - 0.5pts e/w

Ballybacka Queen  100/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts e/w

Racing Selections - Thursday 17th July 2014

Following our NAP in the last post, I've identified two more interesting horses, that may, may not be pretty well handicapped. Both are some sort of dangerous selections considering most recent form, but both equally have the chance to be extremely well treated of their current mark in today conditions. 

15.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f - An interesting and wide open handicap with some well exposed, and some unexposed sorts. The Godolphin Almerzem heads the betting market and there is reason why. He's lightly raced of course, it's his handicap debut and he is well enough bred. However he didn't show much in three maidens and the trip is not sure to suit entirely. His opening mark looks high enough for all of that, even though he could also easily exploit it. However he is a risky proposition and I would avoid to bet on him. Hard Core Dept has recent winning form and is expected to run a fine race under a 6lb penalty. He is not sure to follow up though. Most interesting runner in this field is undoubtedly the Keith Dalgleish's Incurs Four Faults. We have to believe his recent performance when he was pulled up was just an off day, otherwise it wouldn't make sense to let him run so soon after again. So if we draw a line under that run, we can take a look on his penultimate run when he won at Carlisle on quick ground over 9f in really nice style. Effectively he is seven pounds higher today, but that must not be a problem. In fact he goes into this race as an absolute feather weight with only 8st 0lb to shoulder, which one stone less then his nearest competitor. As a three year old he has obviously a weight advantage against older horses. Now he has to show that he is good enough to compete in this class against - on paper at least - way better horses. But he has not too many miles on the clock yet and might pull out some improvement, which would give him a strong chance of this low weight here. --- Incurs Four Faults @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

16.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 13f - Seven starters in this Handicap which seems open on paper. Mark Johnston's lightly races favourite has to prove that he can live up to his current mark on turf as he is ten pounds higher than his last win which came on the All-Weather. O Ma Lad and Aleksandar seem sure to run their race but they shouldn't have too much in hand if there would be one less exposed rival show some improvement. This rival could be Godolphin's extremely lightly raced Emirates Galloper. Sure, he didn't show much since a winning debut over 7f last year, but he had only three starts to date and he steps up markedly in trip, which on pedigree if sure to suit. He is well bred and has stamina all over his pedigree, so it would be a surprise if this trip wouldn't bring out improvement. If that is enough to be competitive in a decent race that this one is, off a mark of 83 remains to be seen, but there must b a very fair chance. And while this opposition isn't entirely poor, it surely is a race to win for an improver. For that reason, EG is the value in the race for me. --- Emirates Galloper @ 6/1 VC - 2pts win

NAP Of The Day - Thursday 17th July 2014

15.05 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f - Small field that is even further decimated by non-runners, but this can only emphasize the chance favourite Iseemist must have to follow up on her most recent impressive Epsom success.This 3yo filly is in red hot form, as she won two races earlier this year, one over course and distance, finished a decent 4th in a competitive class 3 Handicap at Goodwood, was subsequently touched off in the dying strides at Windsor and took on then the older horses at Epsom last week when she won nicely in against good opposition. In this field today, with her three year old weight allowance she must have a cracking chance to win under a penalty as she is turned out soon enough again, preventing the handicapper to raise her mark further. The fact that she is fine on ground, track and trip with the weights in favour in a less than exciting field gives her a bigger chance than the price suggests. She should be short odds-on in my mind. --- Iseemist @ 11/8 PP - 7pts win

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We had a lovely 11/1 winner yesterday with Lady Frances. The 3yo filly made all in hands of Joe Fanning and won with bit of authority in the end. Exactly what we hoped for. With conditions in her favour, she had absolutely no problem to produce her best on turf. Our second selection of the day, admittedly some kind of a speculative one, surly didn't get a winning ride but was also not good enough to get anywhere near the eventual winner, it has to be stated in all fairness.

Racing Selections - Wednesday 16th July 2014

16.00 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 6f - Undoubtedly this 3yo filly has better form on the All-Weather during her career so far. She did well on her latest start over 7f at Lingfield when she finished 3rd eight days ago. She travelled nicely from the front, setting a good pace and looked in with a big shout turning for home. She got tired in the closing stages though. This suggests, as everything that she has shown so far, that 7f is stretching her stamina. Her three career wins came over 5f and 6f. So the drop in trip is in favour today. What about her poor turf showing? I would imagine that she just didn't have found right conditions yet. She was either too high in the mark, ran over a trip too far, or might found combinations of it all with ground not right. However she showed that she is quite a capable filly when she finished runner-up over 7f at Doncaster on quick ground in a conditions race last year, and earlier this season she finished a creditable 3rd at Doncaster again over 7f, this time on soft ground, off a mark of 89. She drops now to a new career lowest turf mark today, with quick ground most likely to suit and the trip exactly what she wants. Track is an unknown but as she likes to be in front or at least prominent, she should be actually favoured by the way Catterick races often pan out. I feel she is a big runner with Joe Fanning on board and while there are some other capable sorts in the line-up, Lady Frances has a nice 3yo weight allowance, which combined with the factors mark, ground and trip makes her a stand out bet for 11/1 in my mind. --- Lady Frances @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

20.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f: The clear favourite Rapid Advance makes plenty of appeal on paper, following his good win on Handiap debut at Goodwood. Only 2lb higher and up in trip, he is an obvious chance. On pedigree there is a very fair chance that he gets the trip, however I worry about the speed on the dam side, which makes we worry and not confident enough to have Rapid Advance as a rather short priced favourite. Behind him there is not much substance in the betting, some minor lto winners, but overall all less than exciting. I feel this opens the door for a long-shot. And for that reason I do like to give Cobham's Circus a chance here on his Handicap debut of a potentially low mark. He is only 67 rated, didn't show much in three maidens before to even warrant such a rating, but the dramatic step up in trip from 7f to 10f should resonate in dramatic improvement. He is all stamina on his sire side, and while his dam never won over further than 6f, there is plenty of stamina further down the line, as on the dam's sire side in particular. In fact it might well turned out to be that Cobham's Circus might even need further in time. For now, 10f looks well worth a try, in fact should see him in much better light than what his performances suggested in maiden company. --- Cobham's Circus @ 16/1 Betfred - 0.5pts e/w

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Have to quickly provide the results from last weekend: After Saturday seemed to be disastrous during the afternoon, the evening meeting at Salisbury brought as back big time! 2 winners from the two selected bets - that's the way we like it! Not quite what I hoped for on Sunday then, when our two selections in South Africa let us down. 

Betting Preview - Turffontein Races - Sunday 13th July

14.05 Turffontein: FM 86 Handicap, 1.160m - Wide open race with many uncertainties. Eight runners gives us a nice chance for some each-money and bottom weight Hello Polly is a very interesting runner here today. She hasn't been anywhere near her best in the last two starts, but before that she finished an excellent 2nd over CD, just being piped on the line. She is a very speedy sort, usually bounces out off the gates leading the field. She had to race under top weight in most of her recent runs since she finally got off the mark in a maiden over course and distance in January when she absolutely smashed a field which wasn't too bad considering that the form works out quite well. Hello Polly steps up markedly in class today, but with a nice light weight of only 52kg she must have a fine chance to run a big race and bring it home under a front-running ride given that her course record is excellent with 1win, 2places in five attempts. --- Hello Polly @ 12/1 Sportingbet - 1pt e/w

15.15 Turffontein: FM 83 Handicap, 1.600m - Lightly raced 3yo filly Featherfoot is extremely progressive and won three of her five career starts to date. If she can progress further, she's a fine chance to win this and develop into a pattern class filly. However she has to defy top weight today with 61.5kg which is a very big ask for a 3yo against some experienced and older sorts. If she is all class, she has to show it today in order to be able win it under such a ig weight. I like to look further down the scale to the also still generally lightly raced African Blue. She is quite progressive, even though she has won only one race from eight starts to date, but there were some factors I believe that counted against her in recent starts. She won a maiden, which form works out well enough, in the manner of a very smart filly when she trailed the field in a slowly run race, had to be switched widest then and had still a good six lengths to make up from 400m out, yet she produced a stunning turn of foot to win it in the last couple of strides, while looking absolutely in control. She disappointed in a subsequent start when dropped in trip, when connections campaigned her in the following races mostly over 2.000m then, a trip that seems to stretch her stamina. She usually faded in those races in the closing stages, yet run consistently well. Her only other start over 1.600m resulted in a 1l beaten third place, when she made stylish progress from the rear of the field to lead briefly 100m out, but she seemed to lose bit of focus when it really matters. She drops back to this trip today and has a nice weight, most importantly blinkers are fitted first time, and they should make a huge difference to her. If they can keep her focused, then she should be ale to realize her potential and I suspect she can be easily a good deal better than her current mark of 73. --- African Blue @ 6/1 Sportingbet - 2pts ein

Betting Preview - Delaware Handicap (Gade 1)

21.51 Delaware Park: Delaware Handicap (Grade 1) - Red hot odds-on favourite Princess of Sylmar is expected to land the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap against opposition she should have little to nothing to fear from normally. POS was an exceptional 3yo last season as the winner of four Grade 1's! Her only real disappointment came late in the season in the Breeders Cup. She started 2014 with success in Listed company, stepped up back into Grade 1 class in the Ogden Phipps Stakes where she only got beaten on the line. She's stepping up to 10f today but is expected to get the trip alright and if she does and is well in herself, she'll be hard to beat. She gives weight away though and Molly Morgan is the one that - on paper at least - could com closest to beat her. MM is in the form of her life, and if she can confirm her recent form, then she is in with a shout - question mark is if she can follow up as in the Fleur De Lis Handicap, arguably her best career performance, she had the run of the race. Flashy American was a four lengths beaten 2nd that day and is not out of this, but has a bit to find. 

From the bigger prices, the four year old filly Gamay Noir makes most appeal. She is progressive and should relish the longer trip today. She won the Grade 3 Obeah Stakes here at Delaware, which is the trial for the Delaware Handicap. She won it nicely and course form counts for allot here. There might be still a bit of improvement in her and she has a nice weight today, for all of that she is a big price, and is the one I like most to give the Princess a run for the money.

Gamay Noir @ 16/1 William Hill - 1pt win

Preview - Evening Racing at Salisbury

19.30 Salisbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m - The favourite Fajry is a very likable sort and open to a considerable amount of improvement. He won a Thirsk maiden on debut in impressive style and the step up in trip should suit today. For all of that, he is short enough in the market and I feel it may pay off to go with the Roger Charlton filly Hiking. She had only five starts today, was progressive as a juvenile and is open to further improvement now as a 3yo. She made an impressive winning debut last season, followed up with another nice and easy success and was a hat-trick only denied by the narrowest of margins when she stepped up to a mile on the Kempton All-Weather. Her seasonal reappearance at Doncaster last month was better than the bare result suggests as she travelled nicely but met interference at a crucial stage when she tried to make decisive headway. She is better than that and should improve for the run today. The quick ground will very much suit on pedigree, so should the mile. There is enough stamina in sire and particularly dam side to be confident that the trip won't be an issue. --- Hiking @ 7/2 PP - 3pts win

21.00 Salisury: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f - Tearless made a belated debut at Goodwood recently and she couldn't have been more impressive giving loads of weight away against some very decent three year olds that had much more experience. She travelled nicely, made strong headway from 3f out and and was going away in the closing stage to win with authority. Her opening mark of 90 seems fair and one would assume that she could go right into pattern class following this race, which I expect her to win. She steps up to 10f now which on pedigree should really suit since she is by Street City and out of Lancashire Oaks winner Playful Art. That says Tearless is beautifully bred, gave a big impression on debut, will relish the ground and the trip - it would be disappointing to see her getting beaten. --- [NAP] Tearless @ 11/4 Bet365 - 5pts win 

Betting Tips - Saturday 12th July 2014

14.40 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f - Conditions ensure that this will a wide open contest. This contest for two year olds is full of lightly raced sorts, and only a handful has every tried the trip, or has encountered soft ground before. So it's hard to have too much confidence in any horse and for that reason I concentrate on the bigger prices horses in this field. Most appeal of them makes clearly Smaih, a recent winner on his second career start and a a son of Paco Boy, who had a fine start with his offspring so far. Smaih won a rather poor maiden at Chepstow, but the way he did it was impressive. Nice turn of foot, almost hands and heels to win it by three lengths, despite hanging and being still quite green. Form doesn't look too shabby since the 3rd finished a good runner-up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. Smaih was only half a lengths beaten on debut, and the winner of that race went on to run big in the Coventry Stakes. 

Smaih should relish the step up in trip. His sire Paco Boy was a classy miler but also an excellent 7f horse. He won on soft. There is stamina on the dam side and form on soft going through the dam's sire too. That suggests that trip and ground should be fine for Smaih. Obviously he has to prove it now but be is a bib price to do so. --- Smaih @ 12/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Mica Mika

17.35 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f - It seems rather easy to discount a good deal of the runners in this field just on the basis of ground, trip, handicap mark and current form. There are two outstanding chances in this race though, if is about the conditions. Mica Mika hasn't won of a mark as high as he is on at the moment - on turf at least- but he has never had a better chance to do so. He has winning form on soft ground and is multiple winner over 12f of marks up to 77. He was mightly unlucky at Windsor a fortnight ago, when he was one pound out of the handicap, so was basically racing of 78. He travelled best of all and seemed poised for a big challenge from over 2f out. Unfortunately he never got out and was stuck in traffic until he crossed the finish line on the bridle. He should have won that race that day and can redeem himself today with conditions in favour. 

Rosslyn Castle could be a big danger. His two starts on the flat this year haven't been too encouraging, but he is down to a very handy mark now. He is 10lb below his last flat winning mark and his best form came over 12f with cut in the ground. so this combination of a handy weight, perfect ground and trip, must give him a big chance to go close today. 

Mica Mika @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Rosslyn Castle @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt e/w

15.30 York: John Smith's City Walls Stakes (Listed) - Kingsgate Native is dropping into Listed company and should be hard to beat since he seems to be as good as ever with strong recent form in the book. However he's only a fair price. Behind it seems fairly open and while the 3yo must have a chance with their weight allowance, I fancy long-shot Whozthecat to do well today. He probably needed his recent run, which came in soft conditions over 6f, which was never going to suit anyway. back over 5f on quick ground - that is what he likes. He was late progressing as a 6yo last season, when he landed a big Handicap at the Curragh, which poses very strong form, since horses behind him that day subsequently won Listed and Group races. If he can be anywhere near that kind of form, he in with a big shout today. I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he hasn't won at York before, but with conditions in favour, and hopefully stripping fitter, he's a lively outsider in this race. --- Whozthecat @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win

Big Race Preview - July Cup

THE July Cup is one of the World's best and most prestigious sprints. Over 6 furlongs we'll see a bunch of top class athletes thundering down the Newmarket July course - it doesn't last long, but it's exciting, fast and furious! A big purse of £510,000 is on offer, so no surprise to see the crème de la crème of Europe's sprinters taking each other on today. Who is gonna win it? That's the big question. Ground conditions haven't made things easier. After loads of rain the last few days, the going is officially described as soft now. That'll make life tough for some, but brings in some others into the equation. Let's take a look at all the important runners in this race, and examine their chances.

The likes of Gregorian, who has never contested in a sprint and always did his best work over further, up to 9f, but he relishes juice in the ground, and that gives him a chance if he is speedy enough. Jack Dexter loves cut in the ground too, all his best form comes on softish ground. He hasn't been good enough for a while, but if he could find back to his best form, then he is in with a shout. Moviesta is a Group 2 winner over 5f and has form on soft ground, however might find the trip a bit too far. You wouldn't think that Rex Imperator is good enough in this company, but he finished a close 2nd on soft over 7f in Listed company, and has enough speed for 6f - so not impossible to see him involved in the finish. Tropics is a G3 winner over 6f on good to soft, but hasn't shown anything this year. Exciting 3yo filly Hot Streak excels on rain softened ground, she was a big runner in the King's Stand when finishing 3rd behind Sole Power - she should have a real go again, however the trip is a slight concern as her best form is over five. Can she see out the trip in a tough Group 1? Mentioning Sole Power, he is a top class sprinter, we know that. But 6f on soft ground is surly not what he wants and for that reason it is really hard to be to enthusiastic about his chance here today. 

His stable mate Slade Power is the big favourite for this race. He won the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot in fine style and he is clearly improved this year compared to last season, when he still performed well in July Cup. He seems to have all in favour today. Distance, ground - he relishes soft ground - beat mud lover Maarek at a rain softened Curragh earlier this year - has the best recent form one can imagine. He is an obvious chance to win this race. The money is coming for him, no surprise, and as low as 2/1 now, the betting clearly favours him to land a nother big price. 

International flair finds its way into the race with Noozhooh Canarias, the Spanish "speed ball". I talked him up in this blog before, right after the 2.000 Guineas. That day he attempted to make all and set the Rowley Mile alight with a blistering pace. He was still in front 1f out, but then he had to pay tribute for all the energy he burned up to then and faded away. S the drop in trip will very much suit, ground should be fine, even though I have the slight feeling that he actually is better on a fast going. He is a very interesting contender today though and I'm really looking forward to see what he can do. The US raider Undrafted is an unknown quantity. He is a Grade 3 winner over 6f on the dirt back home, has some form on turf too and won  up to 1 mile there. Soft ground is a big worry for him though and it is really hard to know what to expect. 

From the Aiden O'Brien runners, Due Diligence makes most appeal. Cougar Mountain has a bit to find on form, while Fountain Of Youth is a fast ground horse. However Due Diligence showed in the Diamond Jubilee that he is a very talented sprinter. He finished a fine 2nd behind Slade Power that day, didn't quite get a clear run but also hit a bit of a flat spot at a crucial stage of the race. As a 3yo he has a nice weight due to the weight for age allowance and that rates him a big danger. On pedigree fast ground should be what he wants, but he looked perfectly fine when encountering cut in the ground in Ireland. He won a good Handicap at Naas, and followed up with a Listed success, both times with juice in the ground. That gives hope that he'll handle the conditions well today, and that must give him a nice chance to be right there when it matters, and then with a clear run, he could get closer to Slade Power. 

One last horse to mention: Astaire. Another three year old - he was a fine prospect in his juvenile season last year, some thought he'd be even a Guineas prospect, but it was soon clear that he wouldn't stay the trip when tried over further in the Greenham back in May. Reverted to sprinting then, he is now a top class 6 furlongs horse and he clearly showed that when finishing 2nd in a Group 2 at York behind Maarek also his latest run in the Diamond Jubilee wasn't bad at all, despite finishing down in 6th. But considering that he went off way too quick that  day, it must be rated a good performance. His best form comes with cut in the ground. He won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes on good to soft and a Group 2 on soft last season. With a nice weight due to the WFO allowance, and more sensible ride today, he can be a big runner in these conditions. 

Verdict: The horse to beat is Slade Power. He is a top class sprinter, has the right form in the book and will be hard to beat. However this is the July Cup, many things can happen and there is good opposition. So with odds pretty low, I'll try to find value and this lies with Aiden O'Brien's Due Diligence in my mind. He showed that he can handle these kind of conditions, he is more than up to this class as she showed in the Diamond Jubilee and there is more improvement to come. If he can show his best on this ground, he'll give Slade Power a run for the money. So should Astaire. Another three year old, like Due Diligence. He relishes the conditions, is a speedy sort, is a Group 1 winner, and confirmed with good performances this year that he clearly trained on. He's a big price and can run better than that.

Due Diligence @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Astaire @ 20/1 William Hill - 0.5pts e/w

Race Preview - Ascot Summer Mile

14.30 Ascot: Summer Mile - An intriguing contest with 12 starters. Ground conditions at Ascot are rather quick, so we probably can expect a fast race, thanks to some proven front-runners in the line-up. This race becomes interesting as it is the clash of strong, proven group performers, some up and coming talents and older horses that try to land the biggest victory of their career. Let's take a closer look! 

Tullius: won Group 2 in softish conditions earlier this season. Strong run in Queen Anne when staying on well, as he did in the Lockinge. proven Group performance and class act. Generally best with cut in the ground. Recent form gives him excellent chance in this.

Baltic Knight: Improving sort last year, won listed race over 1m on quick ground. Narrowly denied lto, career best required here in order to feature. 

Empire Storm: Last success is a while ago, 3rd in Listed race lto, shouldn't be good enough to feature.

Graphic: Strong form this year, won twice over 1m and runner-up twice, likes to be prominent, best form comes with cut in the ground though. Recent Group 3 success gives him chance here. 

Guest Of Honour: Won Listed over 1m recently, still not too many miles on the clock for five year old, goes well on quicker ground, fine 3rd in Group 2 at Ascot last year. Can improve for third start this season.

Highland Knight: Consistent pattern performer. Group 3 winner, likes to be prominent and gets further. No problem with ground, won Listed over trip and ground. Probably not quite up to level required in this race but can't be discounted.

Long John: Formerly trained in Australia, there Group 1 Guineas winner, won then UAE Guineas at Meydan this winter, but found 10f too far in UAE Derby. Should relish quick ground and must rate big runner in this field if he is fit. 

Mull Of Killough: Consistent and versatile, won Group 3 earlier this year, fine on quick ground but never won over CD in five starts and might lack speed on this quick surface on this level these days. 

Producer: Fair comeback run in Queen Anne last month, won Group 2 in Turkey on last start in 2013, goes well on quick ground and gets 1m. Better over 7f and strongly run race might exploit stamina issues here. Very consistent normally though and should be in the shake up.

The Rectifier: Good handicapper these days who likes to go from the front. Excellent form this year and will relish quick ground. Has to be at his absolute best and maybe even better to have a chance here though.

Trumpet Major: Nowhere near as good as he was as a promising three year old. Lost his form in summer last year and while he seemed to find back to some sort of form at Newmarket in May, he was disappointing subequently. Hard to see him featuring here.

Zambucca: Group 2 winner over 9f in native South Africa, was 3rd in Group company at Meydan earlier this year but disappointing in all subsequent start. Drop in trip might help but has loads to find in order to be competitive. 

Verdict: Tullius is a worthy favourite after his impressive performance in the Queen Anne Stakes following up on his strong 2nd in the Lockinge Stakes. Before that he won the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown in fine style. That is really strong form and whoever beats him will probally win the Summer Mile. But one could argue that quick ground may count against him. Connections thought of stepping him up to 10f, so it might happen that there is at least one rival in this field too quick for him tomorrow. Producer could run a big race if the pace isn't too strong, as he could use his turn of foot to full effect then. However there are some horses in the race that like to go from the front, so a likely strong pace could make life tough for him.

Graphic and Guest Of Honour are fine horses in their own right and would deserve a big Group 2, but at current odds, the Australian import Long John is a very interesting contender and potentially the class act in the field. He won the Grade 1 Caulfield Guineas back home in his native country, and was ultra impressive on the Meydan Tapeta when he landed the UAE Guineas. He didn't follow up in the UAE Derby, but the trip was probably too far for him and the race not quick enough. Back over 1m, that might be his optimum trip and quick ground conditions will very much suit. He's back from a little break, so this is the obvious question mark - how much work has his trainer left? But if he is well and fit, then he must rate a huge chance in this race. 

Long John @ 11/2 Betfred – 3pts win

Betting Tips: Friday 11 July 2014

20.40 Chepstow: Class 4 Handicap, 7 furlongs - this Handicap looks an open race and you can easily pick holes into the form of any horse. Favourite Postscript seems well treated on old form, however has never won over seven furlongs in his life. Perfect Mission won a poor Amateur Handicap recently, but this here requires much more. On old form he has a chance, but on balance he shouldn't be good enough. Sarangoo dropped to a good mark and took advantage of it at Windsor over 6f in an Apprentice race. Turned out quickly, she can race off the same mark and must enter calculations, particularly since she has good form over 7f too. 

Light From Mars gets also a chance from the handicapper here, being allowed to race off the same mark as when beaten only on the line at Ffos Las eleven days ago over 6f. Back over 7f now, probably his optimum trip, he shouldn't be too far away yet again. He won of a mark off 80 back in March on the Kempton All-Weather over this trip, couldn't quite follow up on softish ground at Ascot and ran over shorter in three subsequent start, doing not too badly in his penultimate race following up then with the strong most recent performance. The 7lb apprentice in the saddle seems solid and this race poses a challenge he can be successful in. He has previous course form here at Chepstow too - so overall makes most appeal at around 11/2. 

Verdict: This should be between Light From Mars and Sarangoo. It is hard to seperate these two, as both have fine chance from a handicapping as well as form point of view. With conditions in favour too, it seems hard to look beyond and it makes sense to back them both.

Light From Mars @ 11/2 Bet365 - 2pts win

Sarangoo @ 5/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

16.15 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 1m4f - Very tricky and interesting Handicap which provides the fr this time of the year usual clash between some good older horses and improving three year olds. However this race is particularly compelling as the older horses are largely lightly raced and improving sorts. Naturally you would prefer the three year olds though, due to the huge amount of weight they receive due to weight for age. Let's look a bit deeper into this Handicap, examining each runner individually:

Kikonga, 4yo filly, loves quick ground, won over CD last year in impressive style, not so good since then in hotter company, so subsequent runs fair to discount so the latest run on soft. Should better back here in class 3 with conditions to suit and potentially up to mark, but big weight. 

Lady Pimpernel, 4yo filly, good recent form, goes well on quick ground but best form on softer and never won over 12f in four starts. Career best required.

Missed Call, 4o filly, lightly raced, decent comeback run, improved subsequently when stepped up to 12f, clearly stayed trip and relishes fast ground, won maiden well over 10f on fast ground. One paced grinder, and 12f surely suits. Hampered at crucial stage at Chester lto, stayed on very strongly. 2lb up and up in class but more improvement to come over this trip with conditions in favour. 

Nullarboy Sky, 4yo filly, won two on the bounce, loves quick ground and very progressive. 4lb up in the mark for recent win is fair, was entitled to win that day in that field. Needs to improve further, trip on pedigree fine. 

Tioga Pass, 3yo filly, lightly raced and progressive. Won extremely well over 12f at Goodwood lto when 1lb out of the handicap. Hefty rise in the mark by 12lb, chance on the weights but needs to produce this on quick ground now.

Arabian Comet, 3yo filly lightly raced, tries trip for the 1st time, seems fine on pedigree and impression from latest start goes along with this. Won well over mile on quick ground before, up in the mark and needs to improve further, but that is likely over this new trip. 

Cameo Tiara, 3yo, lightly raced, tries new trip, needs to improve dramatically for that to be in with a chance, but nice weight, unsure if 12 is what she wants with loads of speed on dam side. Good claimer on board.

Swan Lakes, 3yo filly, won maiden well over trip and ground. Outstayed rival in tight finish. Low opening mark, chance on weights and improvement likely. But bit to find against some good opposition. 

Verdict: The three year olds have a strong hand in this. Arabian Comet is the favourite and could well be able to exploit her mark on WFO terms. Swan Lakes has a very low mark to play with but has to prove that she is good enough in such a good race. Kikonga has a chance with conditions in favour, but the big weight is still a worry. From the four year olds Missed Call makes clearly most appeal as she seems to be an improver with age, is still lightly raced and gave a strong impression in her latest race when trying the trip for the first time. Se could a good deal better than his current rating of 85 - but has to be as well, in order to win this against good 3yo rivals. She represents the value on balance given his current odds though. --- Missed Call @ 9/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win

16.50 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 6f - Big and competitive sprint Handicap over the straight course. As much as it is competitive, as much it lacks too many obvious chances. You can pick wholes into anyone, and a big priced winner is not unlikely given the fact that a 7yo is heading the market who needs a career best. 

I do fancy the chance of Noble Deed, with Kieron Fallon on board. Noble Deed did surly need his most recent run after a break of five month. Before that he tried the All-Weather during the winter, with not too much success though. He was a progressive sprinter last year however. He won three races and finished the turf season with a 2nd at Ascot over 6f, beaten only by a head. He is down to this mark today and has the quick ground that is vital to him. After all, he must have a better chance than his big price suggests in this field. --- Noble Deed @ 20/1 Betfred - 1pt e/w

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We had a disappointing Thursday with our two selections being unsuccessful. Forever Now travelled okay but didn't quite seem to relish the strange underfoot conditions and faded back into third in the end. Sir Guy Porteous ran really well but unfortunately got caught on the line! That is really bitter and quite costly.

Racing Selections: Thursday 10th July 2014

13.40 Newmarket: Bahrain Trophy, Group 3 - It is hard to make a case for most runners in this Group 3 over 1m 5f, starting with Bunker who seems not progressing and has stamina to prove over this trip. Mark Johnston's Hartnell won a Listed race at Ascot recently, however over 2m and has to prove he is speedy enough against some rivals that seem to be better suited to this kind of test. Odeon with first time hood drops in class and steps up slightly in trip, a combination that might see him finding back to form. However it's hard to be too confident about that. Lightly raced Corsican won at the second time of asking a maiden at Kempton. If he is up to this class remains to be seen. Vent De Force is a progressive handicapper, but this is much tougher and the quick ground is a major worry. Honor Bound won the Lingfield Oaks trial, was subsequently found out for class in the actual Epsom Oaks, but should find this easier and has to be taken seriously. So has to be the progressive Windshear who was runner-up in competitive handicaps the last two starts. 

However the most interesting horse in the field is the lightly races John Gosden colt Forever Now. He ran well over course and distance on his seasonal reappearance, which was also his second only start, when he finished close 2nd behind Wonderstruck who finished subsequently not too far beaten in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Forever Now learned from that effort and might light work of his opposition in a subsequent maiden at Doncaster last month. He made virtually all, quickened from 4f out and finished the race in really good style, suggesting he is certainly a pattern winner in the making. with natural improvement, he should have potentially too much for the opposition in this field. --- Forever Now @ 10/3 Paddy Power - 4pts win

19.15 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 9f - This race over 9f is a test that should be dominated by the three year olds. They have an advantage in the weights due to the age allowance and all three have credentials that make them candidates to go close. Desert Society is probably the weakest of the trio, but has a very good apprentice in the saddle. Mindyourownbusiness ran in an ultra competitive handicap at Ascot and is better judged on his fine win at Yarmouth before. He should go close if he can handle track and ground. 

However Sir Guy Porteous makes most appeal of all in the field. He seems a near certainty with the weights extremely in his favour. He won at Carlisle in really fine style, making all from the front and going away easily from the rest of the field in the final furlong. He came well clear of the second, who himself came well clear of the rest. He's turned out soon again, so has to race under the standard 6lb penalty but should in theory up much higher and as soon as the handicappers get their chance, they will put him up much higher. He should be the best horse in this race, has the weights in favour, strong form, no problem with the ground and also should be fine with the trip since his pedigree is stamina ladden - only odd Epsom can stop him. --- Sir Guy Porteous @ 11/4 Bet365 - 5pts win

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Wednesdays NAP Gang Warfare was extremely keen in the preliminaries of the race, was keen in the  early parts of the race then almost inevitably and was held up a long way off the pace in an impossible position, because it was a huge advantage in this race to be up with the pace. In the end the winner, second and third were all prominent . GW is surely better than that. However he didn't finish too promising and might not have too much in hand after all.

NAP Of The Day: Wednesday 9th July 2014

Gang Warfare

20.50 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 11 furlongs - Thecornishcowboy seems an obvious chance in this race after quite a successful spell in recent weeks, exploiting the handicap system and his low mark. But I feel he has reached his the maximum of what he is capable and there are some other good horses in this field that are capable of improving further and beyond him. Cousin Khee will be in with a big chance for example. He is well treated of his current mark back on the All-Weather. The trip might be a bit short for him though. Artful Rogue is still lightly raced and open for improvement. Hasn't won yet but most recent performance at Goodwood wasn't too bad and off a low mark switched to the All-Weather, he could improve enough to be in with a shout. Little Buxted was beaten at Kempton over 10f back in November only by a very tight margin. He is two pounds lowe in the mark today and the trip will suit. Still more to come and with Queally in the saddle, he's an obvious contender. 

From the two handicap débutantes, Gang Warfare makes certainly most appeal. Tacticus is hard to judge on his first three outings and therefore hard to fancy, but Gang Warfare ticks plenty of boxes now switched to handicaps and particularly stepping up markedly in trip. A 40.000 Guineas yearling, lightly raced with nice pedigree - the surface is a concern, but he showed plenty to like in his maidens over 1 mile, staying on strongly in his last two starts. There is plenty of stamina on his sire side, who can get top class horses up to 12f, and he's out of a Fantastic Light mare who won a Listed race over 12f. On pedigree he should very much relish the extra distance and is quite nicely bread which does suggest that his opening mark of 74 could be extremely lenient. Given that some horses have got opening marks of high eighties for much less, Gang Warfare is an obvious choice in this race and should be hard to beat if all goes smoothly in-running. --- Gang Warfare @ 5/1 William Hill - 4pts win

NAP Of The Day - Tuesday 8th July 2014

16:00 Pontefract: Pipalong Stakes (Listed, 1 mile) - This appears to be an open contest, held at the beautiful racing venue of Pontefract. The Listed Pipalong Stakes over 1m lacks an obvious winning contender, however it could easily become a messy race, considering the fact that Pontefract is a kind of quirky track, and interestingly there seems to be an awful lot of pace in the race, which makes it quite a compelling contest, since the track usually prefers horses ridden close to the pace due to the short run-in. There might be a rough battle for position.

Favourit Pavlosk is still generally lightly raced and wasn't disgraced in Group 3 company at Lingfield back in May. She is back over 1m which should suit, but the ground is some kind of a question mark, since her best form came with cut in the ground. She could well be too good for this lot if she can improve further, but it's hard to be too confident in her either, since it's not given that she does improve. Second favourit Dutch Rose is a seasoned campaigner. She is also consistent and ground independent. She hasn't been able to win over 1m in six starts though, so the trip is an obvious concern. Butterfly Mcqueen is one the most interesting contenders. Her recent performance in a Group 3, where she wasn't too far beaten behind subsequent G1 winner Thistle Bird, appears to be decent enough and she might well have still a bit improvement left, now as a four year old. She has won over 1m as well as on quick ground. Question is if the combination of track, trip and ground is really what she wants. Masarah is next best in the betting but she has won only one of her 17 starts on turf and it's hard to see her getting her head in front in this competitive race. The rest of the betting market is 10/1 bar. Which means there should be a bit of value available since the head of the market is hard to fancy given their rather short prices.

I do think it could be worth to give someone a chance who stays a bit further than 1m, given the conditions of this race. And that could make Boonga Roogeta a worthy contender. Normally she seems slightly below what is required to be really competitive in a Listed race, but while this years Pipalong Stakes are competitive in its own right, it is probably not really a particularly strong races in terms of its status as a Listed race. That is where Boonga Roogeta comes into the equation. She is a multiple winner of competitive handicaps ranging in distance from one mile to ten furlongs. It is hard to argue against the fact that she is better the further she goes. However she won some good races over 9f and she loves fast ground. She also prefers to go from the front, and while there is plenty of pace on here plus the fact that she has to overcome a wide draw, I have no doubt that she'll be right up with the pace. She can fight for position and has gate speed. It should be a really quick race with emphasis on stamina, and that would suit her. She also usually does quite well at this kind of quirky, undulating tracks. She won in May on seasonal debut a small handicap at Brighton, couldn't quite follow up when she went too quick in her most recent start. Putting it all together, I feel she has the ability to go close here and conditions that should see her clearly involved in a finish which could be quite messy. 

Selection: Boonga Roogeta @ 22/1 Betfair - 1pt e/w

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Mondays NAP finished a close 2nd. Jazz travelled strongly approaching the 2f marker and took up the lead 1f out, looking like the winner, but then didn't quite get home when the eventual winner put on the pressure staying on strongly.