16.05 Hamburg - German Derby: Twenty starts in this years German Derby - I can imagine that it will be messy! Some really good horses in the line-up though. Aiden O'Brien brings over Geoffrey Chaucer, who was so disappointing at Epsom, but is clearly better than that. With Ryan Moore in the saddle, he has obvious credentials to win this, however his wide draw doesn't make life easy. Hot favourit is the Sea The Stars son Sea The Moon. He is a multiple Group 3 winner, lightly raced, won his last start in good style, and should relish the additional furlong. Clearly the horse they all have to beat, Soumillion booked for the ride, if he gets a clear run, he'll be hard to stop. Wide draw is a concern and if he can get a clear run. Maybe he tried to get to the front though, then he can eliminate this danger. I think he'll win, but can't have him for short 15/8 and think there is better value to find. Impressive Bavarian Classic winner Magic Artist is an obvious danger on paper. His success in the Group 2 at Munich was visually exciting, but I doubt that he has the stamina to win this today.
Wild Chief finished a very unlucky 4th in the French Derby. He was several times hampered, didn't get a clear run for a very long time, yet finished the race very well. He'll be happy with the additional furlong and has a really good chance to finish in the money. Godolphin's Pinzolo faild to act at Epsom, but is a good animal and is not without a chance. I'm not sure if he is up to this class though and pass him for that reason. Lucky Lion won two Group races this year already. He is an obvious contender for that reason. However he steps up markedly in trip and that must be a concern. The only filly in the race, Weltmacht, with Tom Queally in the saddle makes some appeal over the trip. She finished a good 2nd in a strong Group race last time out, but I feel this is a tough task and the brave move by connections to go for the Derby might well pay off in some decent prize money for a placed effort, but more is hard to see from my point of view.
Speedy Approach will be ridden by Germany's top jockey Eddy Pedroza. He is not as lightly raced as others, but completely unexposed over the Derby distance. He finished an unlucky 2nd in the Bavarian Classic last time out, when travelled nicely but got short of room and hampered multiple times. He stayed on nicely in 2nd nonetheless. His pedigree is pointing clearly to the Derby trip and he should relish the additional 2 furlongs. By a Derby 12f, out of a mediocre mare who was best over long trips though, who herself is out of a Derby winner though. Amazonit won a Listed Derby trial at Bremen recently and looked excellent that day. He was outpaced 300m out and took a while to hit top gear, also didn't quite a clear run, but once he found his stride and got out on the wide outside, he was always going to win. He should improve for the trip I suspect.
Verdict: Sea The Moon is the one to beat. If he gets a clear run, it is hard to see him not ending up in the winners enclosure. Behind him there are many possibilities though, and in this big field in-running luck becomes vital. Both Amazonit and Speedy Approach should relish the new trip, have some nice recent form to offer and have good jockeys booked for the ride. For big prices they make appeal on that evidence to me.
Speedy Approach @ 33/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts win
Amazonit @ 40/1 Betfair - 0.5pts win
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