It's bets free time...

No suitable bet yesterday and no selection for today. I find it hard to be confident about horses chances on the awful ground that appears on UK's racetracks at the moment - thank you rain! And also tonight's racing at Wolverhampton is not very appealing. But that's not a problem. It's not required to have a bet just for the sake of having one. Only discipline is the way to success. Let's wait for the right chances. They will come surly. 

Exciting times lying ahead anyway. Friday and Saturday it's Breeders Cup and the following Tuesday it's time for the race that stops a nation: The Melbourne Cup! Have to say personally I'm not really that excited about the Breeders Cup this year. But the Melbourne Cup is one of these races that I'm looking forward to the whole year. Last years renewal was a real thriller, we all remember the photo finish between Dunaden and Red Cadeaux I suppose. If not, then let's refresh your memories...

Kingsbarns new Derby favourite...

Kingsbarns - winner of the Racingpost Trophy

Things worked to perfection today. Two selections = Two wins! Can't be much better. Kittens ran out an impressive winner at Wolverhampton despite being ridden way off the pace which brought her in a bit of trouble turning for home but she got a clear run on the outside eventually and had just too much in hand. She's won easily in the end. I think she's well able to win again but lets wait what the handicapper has to say about this performance. 

Highlight of the day though was the Racingpost Trophy at Doncaster of course. I felt quite bullish about Kingsbarns chances - and rightly so as we know now after the race. He travelled like a dream, quickened nicely and won well enough in the end, even though he was very green and inexperienced. But no wonder as this was only his secondcareer  start. He will improve massively for this run and looks an exciting prospect indeed. The bookies reacted in dramatic fashion, installing him the 4/1 favourite for the Derby next year, best priced with Ladbrokes at 8/1. I'm certainly not tempted at this price and I'm not quite sure if he's a Derby horse but I'm pretty sure that he is a very, very good horse that has a great future. 

After a losing run of seven consecutive bets this was important today. I was very confident in both horses and I have full confidence in my methods. Since the restart of the blog everything works very well and the first full month resulted in a fine profit of 53.50pts from 38 bets. That is very satisfying to see, though I'm not quite happy with the strike rate. This is something I have to address and to work on.

Saturday 27th of October...

15.05 Doncaster: Kingsbarns @ 85/40 Betfair - 6pts win

I think Kingsbarns is potentially a superstar and a cut above his rivals in this race. The way he won on his debut at Navan was visually stunning. The form is nothing special indeed but the way he kicked away from the field 2f out having been able to produce a nice turn of foot on heavy ground was absolutely superb. He only can improve on that effort and has a huge potential I suppose. 
 


21.15 Wolverhampton: Kittens @ 6/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Kittens ran a massive race at Pontefract three weeks ago when she was travelling well in rear of the field until she made a big move on the inside between 5f and 3f out to take suddenly the lead. She kicked for home 2f out and looked a big threat but just got a bit tired on dead ground and finished only 3rd eventually. She performs best on a fast surface normally though. I think she showed that she could be easily better than her currant mark suggests and the switch back to the All-Weather should be in her favour actually. She also drops in class here and is the horse to beat in this race in my mind.

Friday 26th of October...

16.25 Doncaster: Miss Blink @ 17/2 VC - 3pts win

She is down to an interesting handicap mark and gave me the impression on her most recent run that she's in good order. She travelled best of all at Ripon in August but saw here stamina stretched over 12 furlongs on softish ground. The drop back to 10f should see her able to finish much better as she's also 1lb below her last winning mark and four wins from nine starts over this distance. The soft ground at Doncaster today shouldn't cause a problem as she has winning form in this sort of conditions either.

Thursaday 25th of October...

14.00 Southwell: El Dececy @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

El Dececy is back in form considering his fine run at Bath last time out. He was set to make all as usually but went a suicidal pace in my mind, yet he had most of the field off the bridle till 3f out while travelling not badly through the race himself. He was never expected to come home over 10f at this pace and he had to pay tribute in the closing stages to it indeed, fading in the final furlong completely. He still managed to finish fourth and this performance suggests to me that El Dececy is better in form than the bare result might suggest in first glance. He's back at Southwell tomorrow, a track where he's done very well in the past as a 2x course winner and additional two close 2nd places in ten starts. He also drops in distance back to his probably ideal trip of 1m. He's also very well handicapped and has Adam Kirby on board who manoeuvred him to two wins in the past already. So loads looks right in place for El Dececy and from his low draw he should be able to get the early lead which is so vital lead for him.

Ascot & Frankel via Wolverhampton & Bath...

I've been to a three days long trip to the UK with a friend last week - main purpose was horse racing of course. We made it to Wolverhampton on Friday, Ascot on Saturday and Bath on Sunday. Quite a full program I'd say and indeed it was exhausting and expensive - but well worth every penny!

Wolverhampton on Friday was the first stop. A lovely track I really have to say. You don't really get a right impression of the track on TV where it looks usually a rather dreary and far from exciting place. Quite the opposite is the truth though I think. It wasn't overcrowded on this Friday and it surely is a small course but with excellent facilities. Everything is close to you... parade ring, betting facilities, actual racetrack, bar... Btw. they have a lovely bar with wonderful couches to relax and from where you can get a look through an extra large glass window-wall to see the jockeys weighing in while you're nipping on your pint. Brilliant stuff! Racing under floodlights is extra special as well - for me at least and it's been overall a wonderful, friendly and relaxed atmosphere. So I really have to say Wolverhampton was a pleasant surprise. Never thought this track could be that lovely. If I compare it with the other two All-Weather tracks which I've seen so far - Lingfield and Kempton - I'd say Wolverhampton is just a class above them.

It was all about Ascot and Frankel on Saturday of course. Made it from Birmingham on a direct way to the track. Even three hours before the first race the place was already quite crowded. But that was nothing compared to what was still to come indeed. Time was really flying anyway, the first races went on and a real buzz was in the air. The excitement about Frankel was palpable all over the place and everything that happened before the fifth race was just the prologue actually. I made it after the third race already in the the parade ring and never left my place there down at the rails till the big showdown. The ring was packed before the fourth race anyway but nobody left it to watch the actual race, everyone remained there to keep their good position to be able to watch Frankel as close as possible when he finally would walk into the parade ring. Excelebration won really well then and that all was nice, he deserved his lap of honour of course but - without disrespect - no one really cared as the moment of truth drew closer. And then Frankel finally appeared in the parade ring welcomed by a hurricane of applause. He looked calm and relaxed I thought, really well and happy with himself. 

When Frankel left the parade ring the big run started. Not Frankel's run - not yet at least - but the run of the people towards the grand stand. Never experienced something like that before. It was a bit chaotic even more as the grand stand was practically full and it wasn't possible to get in there so I had to choose the outside route and "climbed" a little tree (or something like that) just beside the main stand as many other people did too to see at least something. To be honest it felt like the best place in the whole house. I had an amazing overview over the stand, the people and the track. But then... everything happened so quickly. The race started and suddenly the field already turned for home. When the people saw that Frankel was still on the bridle 2f out the roar from the crowd was just unbelievable. It was the explosion of what accrued the whole day... it was really one of these moments... "I was there". Probably I'll never forget standing there up on this three watching Frankel winning his final race while Ascot erupted. After the race it was again all about running to get a good place in the parade ring to welcome back the invincible. That were unbelievable scenes. I saw many people with tears in their eyes... it all was really touching and Frankel received a wonderful farewell when he finally made two laps of honour later in the parade ring under the frenetic applause by the crowd. He looked in the crowd all the time time during the laps, ears pricked and it was like as if he knew he's the star, he's the best... he certainly enjoyed it. What a horse he is...

Overall it was just an amazing experience at Ascot on Saturday. The atmosphere was incredible, the races were mostly really thrilling and £26 for the ticket was a real bargain as the memories of this day are just invaluable. Have to say I didn't have a single bet that day though. It was all about the sport and the atmosphere for me...

Third and last stop was Bath. The normal grandstand enclosure ticket was expensive with £18 I have to say and I found it a bit weird that there where long queues before the entrance of the track just 10 minutes before the off of the first race. But enough criticized. The track itself is wonderful. A big crowd turned up for the last raceday of the year and the atmosphere was wonderful. People had fun, were enjoying a couple of pints while watching good sport. Have to say the view from the stand is excellent. You can overview the whole track, it's pretty close all, almost intimidate. Weather was fine too so this was an excellent finish of the three days long trip - surly a memorable journey. 

You can find more pictures of this trip at: https://www.facebook.com/HorseracingInternational

Frankel

Wednesday 24th of October...

A very close second for Panama Cat who was narrowly denied which shows I was pretty much right with my prediction for improvement over 1m for for her but it didn't convert into a profit unfortunately. Climaxfortackle ran a decent race without being really dangerous.

19.50 Kempton: Everleigh @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 This filly's chance is very much underestimated in this race I feel. She won a maiden on her third start in good style from the front, found a good Newmarket Handicap too hot then but was extremely impressive last time out at Kempton. That certainly wasn't a bad Nursery and the winner looked pattern class but Everleigh was surly the horse to take out of the race. She was 4f out outpaced and as a result relegated to the rear of the field when turning for home but it was difficult not the like the way she stayed on in the closing stages as she finished like a train on the outside. That suggests that the step up to 1m will be absolutely in her favour as also should be the drop in class. She finished that day in front of some good horses and I think a mark of 77 is not quite reflecting her ability with further improvement expected over the new distance on her only third handicap start either. She's lightly raced and I'd be surprised if she wouldn't run a big race tomorrow.



20.20 Kempton: Triba I D @ 15/2 VC - 2pts win

Lightly raced maiden who gave a promising handicap debut lto at Kempton. He had to overcome the widest draw in that race and was pretty unsettled in the early stages pulling hard and using valuable energy. Yet he travelled best of all till 2f out in rear of the field but had to make allot of ground as was last of all at this stage. He finished very well eventually but the challenge came simply to late. I think he's better than the bare form suggests considering the wide draw and the way he was racing in the early stages and I think he could be a good deal better with further improvement expected on his second handicap start. This is a very weak race and he looks well in the weights here and I think he could prove too good for his rivals here.

Wednesday 23rd of October...

14.50 Yarmouth: Panama Cat @ 11/2 Bet365 - 3 pts win

This filly really caught my eye in her most recent run at Catterick. She was soon outpaced over a sharp 6f trip at Catterick, a track that favours prominent ridden horses in my mind. Panama Cat was relegated to the rear of the field and made her jockey to work hard to keep her in in the race. She was way behind the leaders turning for home but stayed on super well in the closing stages to finish only 1½ beaten in fourth place eventually. That goes down as an excellent performance in my book. She demonstrated that she handles soft ground which will be vital tomorrow at Yarmouth and the step up in distance should be in her favour. Of course is still a big ask to race on heavy ground and 2f more but if she stays then she has a big chance to go close here.



15.20 Yarmouth: Climaxfortackle @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1 pt win

There might be not that much speaking for Climaxfortackle's chance here in first glance as she's yet to win a race on turf but I think that the ground is not really an issue for her actually. In fact she was desperately unlucky last time out at Leicester in a big sprint handicap. She travelled well enough but was then hampered in the closing stages and after that when she found her rhythm back a clear run denied too. She couldn't have been unluckier and would have gone much closer with a clear run. It was a messy race and the horse she interfered with there won in her next start ironically. So this form works out well actually. Step up in trip to 7f should be rather in Climaxfortackle favour as she won over further and for the ground issue it looks as if soft ground brings out the best of her on turf. So overall there is something to like about her chance as she's also down to an interesting mark.

Monday 22th of October....

Three days no bets as I've been to a trip to the UK - for horse racing of course. Visited Wolverhampton and Bath racecourse but the main purpose of this trip was of course to watch Frankel's final appearance at a racetrack. All I can say is: It's was an unforgettable day at Ascot! Some pictures and a report will follow later when I find a bit of time...

16.00 Windsorr: Freddy Q @ 22/1 VC - 1.5pts Eeach Way

 He was one week ago already my BBOTD and I keep faith in him despite a poor performance lto as all from last week still applies bar the facts that the horse drops in class what surly should be rather in his favour of course and that he drops in distance back to 10f over what he won this year already and what might suits him better as his stamina is probably stretched too much over 12f on heavy ground.

 Freddy Q looked to be in excellent form here at Goodwood three weeks ago when racing for the first time for new connections. He travelled like a dream through the race and looked the most likely winner 1f out, though he didn't have an answer to the strong finish of the eventual winner in the final 100y or so. Yet this was clearly a very fine effort for what he gets only one pound up in the mark. He won earlier this year of his current mark off 81 at Sandown but he has also excellent course form to offer as he won here last year and ran so well lto. He does handle soft ground very well either and the further step up in trip to 12f should be in his favour. De Sousa is booked for the ride which is bonus in addition to all what makes Freddy Q already an interesting runner in this race here.

Thursday 18th of October...

Nice winner again yesterday. Aubrietia won very well at 11/2 SP thanks to BOG! Kinglami ran a fine race too, finished only 2nd though. That makes him a really frustrating horse unfortunately and it looks as if he really needs to have everything in right place to win of his current mark which means I got it wrong in that regard as he's obviously not well handicapped but rather very much in the grip of the handicapper. But who want's to complain, three winners the last two days, which results in a really nice profit.

17.00 Wolverhampton: Dance The Rain @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Think Dance The Rain ran much better than the bare form suggests last time out. She dwelt in the stalls and raced wide all the time without any cover. She travelled smoothly though till 2f out while she came then under pressure and ran out of petrol. The winner was not to catch this day anyway and she was eased down in the final furlong. She switches to the All-Weather now for the first time and drops in class as well. She's also running of a career lowest mark and considering that she was very competitive earlier the year in better races of higher marks I'd assume that she should go really well today here.

Wednesday 17th of October...

After a few unlucky days it was just a matter of time till my selections would finally go in. Both selections have won pretty well today, even though Arctic Lynx won in a photo. Great profit for the day anyway and I hope I can continue this little run... 


16.50 Nottingham: Aubrietia @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Aubrietia had a massive year so far winning four races and looks still on the upward. She was desperately unlucky in a very messy race at Leicester last week. She had an excellent position on the inside rail actually and looked going the strongest for a long way but from 2f out she has been heavily hampered. She still made headway after a first slight bump but a second one cost her every chance when she was kind of in a sandwich. She still managed to finish sixth what I'd consider a fantastic performance overall and which suggests that she is still on a winnable mark. She drops in trip back to 5f tomorrow, a trip she's two from two and she's back at Nottingham, a track she won at on her sole start. She's also down in class. That all makes her the horse they all have to beat in my mind despite being 9lb above the last winning mark.

17.10 Lingfield: Kinglami @ 6/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

After breaking his maiden tag at Kempton in August he's gone close in all his last starts while always travelling well but failing narrowly either. I thought the most eye-catching and interesting performance was the most recent one, when he stepped up to 1m for the first time. He really travelled well that day at Kempton but had a long way through the whole field to go in the home straight from the rear of the field and that was a mission impossible to catch the eventual winner who made all from the front. He finished in impressive fashion though, staying on extremely well and it confirmed that he has no problems to stay the trip anyway. He dropped 1lb for this effort surprisingly and really gets a chance by the handicapper I think while staying over over one mile but switching to Lingfield's All-Weather track for the first time which I feel could suit his running style way better. He's still lightly raced and can improve further over this trip and should have a cracking chance of winning here in this race as the bottom weight.

Tuesday 16th of October...

19.20 Wolverhampton: Arctic Lynx @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win

Was my selection eight days ago already and wrote this about him at that time:

"He looked a bit high in the weights this summer but his most recent performance in a ultra competitive sprint at Sandown really caught my eye indeed.He was a bit outpaced in the middle of the race bust still travelled okay till 2f out or so when he had though a wall of horses in front of him and nowhere to go. He switched to the inside eventually and finished the race nicely only hands and heels ridden and surly could have gone closer with a clear run. This was a pretty messy race but the form works out really well with Face The Problem being subsequently placed and also a winner in very hot class 2 sprints and subsequent winners Kyleakin Lass & Ajjaadd. Arctic Lynx drops in class today, back in a class 4 Handicap and he goes up in distance, back over 6f - all his wins came over this distance so this should definitely suit - he's done well on the All-Weather in recent years as well and also drops 2lb in the mark. In addition he has the very talented apprentice Michael J M Murphy in the saddle who takes off another 5lb and which must give Arctic Lynx all in all a massive chance here today."

Same applies today as I thought he was unlucky not to finish closer lto as he was slightly hampered and didn't have the clearest run in the closing stages. He should go well today again as he is able to race off the same mark again.



20.50 Wolverhampton: Hard Road @ 7/2 VC - 3pts win

Still a maiden but the most recent performance was excellent und suggests that he's in fine form and poised to win a race. He was racing there in rear of the field and had to go wide around the home bend to make headway while not in best position though when the leaders kicked away off a slow pace. Suddenly a massive gap between the leading trio and the rest of the field developed and all horses from behind had no chance whatsoever. Hard Road though ran on very well and finished a fine fourth. Despite that he's down another 1lb in the mark and that should only enhance his chance here today.

Sunday 14th of October...

16.55 Goodwood: Freddy Q @ 14/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Freddy Q looked to be in excellent form here at Goodwood three weeks ago when racing for the first time for new connections. He travelled like a dream through the race and looked the most likely winner 1f out, though he didn't have an answer to the strong finish of the eventual winner in the final 100y or so. Yet this was clearly a very fine effort for what he gets only one pound up in the mark. He won earlier this year of his current mark off 81 at Sandown but he has also excellent course form to offer as he won here last year and ran so well lto. He does handle soft ground very well either and the further step up in trip to 12f should be in his favour. De Sousa is booked for the ride which is bonus in addition to all what makes Freddy Q already an interesting runner in this race here.

Saturday 13th of October...

Both horses have been non-runners on Friday, unfortunately. It's not the 'luckiest' week I really have to say anyway. My selections all go close - really close often enough - but they fail to get their noses in front on the line. A bit frustrating, but that's the game. I remain confident though, actually I'm really looking forward to tomorrow, Saturday. Not because of the big races at York or Newmarket but rather because I have two fantastic chances running at Wolverhampton in the evening...

18.15 Wolverhampton: Melodee Princess @ 14/1 Bet365 - 3 pts win

Melodee Princess was desperately unlucky at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. She really travelled very well in rear of the field, made a nice move 3f out on the outside of the field then and looked a real threat until she was simply locked 2f out. She had absolutely no way to go, no chance to switch to the outside and deliver a challenge. I assume she'd have gone very close with a clear run as she looked full of running with much more to give if Luke Morris would have been able to ask for everything. He wasn't able to do so though but Melodee Princess gets another chance tomorrow. She drops in class and is still lightly raced. She has the excellent assistance of DE Egan in the saddle who still claims very valuable 5lb as well. So I think she's very much overpriced.



19.45 Wolverhampton: Red Dragon @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

He showed nothing in his three maiden runs and the bare form of his handicap debut suggests he's a dog indeed but I thought It was an interesting performance actually. Red Dragon had to overcome the widest draw in that race at Kempton one month ago and was dropped right to the rear of the field but was also racing very wide the whole time of the race surprisingly. He tried to make a move 4f out but found it difficult to gain ground when the leaders kicked away off a slow pace. He didn't get a hard race and it was actually an unusual ride given by William Buick from a visual point of view. Red Dragon ultimately stayed on a bit gaining ground in the final furlong but was never really asked for a serious effort in this race. I don't want to say this was a non-trier but it looked suspicious to me and I suspect the horse to be much better than what he showed that day. His mark dropped by 2lb and I really think he should be very competitive of a lowly mark off 60 here tomorrow.

Friday 12th of October...

17.20 York: Icebuster @ 5/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Icebuster really regained his form in recent weeks staying on in eye-catching fashion twice at Sandown while responding very well to the step up in trip to 12f for the first time at Kempton two weeks ago when he finished very strongly without getting the hardest of rides. He had a wide draw to overcome that day and had to switch to the outside to get a clear run in the closing stages which surely didn't help his cause. He still finished an excellent 3rd in the end. He only gets up 1lb for this effort but switches back to the turf, but he runs again over 12f tomorrow. This Amateur Rider's Handicap looks weaker than the races he contest in recently and with the fine form he brings into the race I think he should go really close. Mr. Millman takes off another 3lb off the mark what surly helps as this guy is riding pretty well actually. It's serious business for Icebuster tomorrow and I'm pretty confident in his chance actually.



19.45 Wolverhampton: Madame St Clair @ 15/2 VC - 2pts win
This 3yo filly is poised to win finally a race again after a couple of excellent efforts in the last number of month. She won a poor seller comfortably by 5 lengths in June, had then a small break but confirmed the promise with two fine performances at Kempton and Leicester when she finished subsequently 2nd. She had an off day at Lingfield after that but made amends at Salisbury nine days ago when she stepped up to 14f for the first time. She travelled well in rear of the field and produced a strong run on the outside of the field in softish ground conditions. The young and inexperienced jockey lost his whip 2f out unfortunately which was not an advantage in a driving finish. Madame St Clair finished a 3 lengths beaten 2nd in the end but came miles clear of eventual third. Again a really good performance which confirms that she's holding very well her form. She'll be back on the All-Weather which shouldn't be a problem as she's produced good form on this surface already. I'm a bit worried about her hold-up style though as this is not always an advantage at Wolverhampton. But I feel she has a wonderful chance to finally get her second career success anyway as she's so well in form and looks well able to win off her current mark.

Thursday 11th of October...

15.40 Ayr: Breezolini @ 10/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Breezolini ran a fantastic race at Hamilton three weeks ago. He was slowly into stride and bit behind the field early on as a result of this what never is really an advantage over six furlongs obviously. But he really ran on very well in the closing stages to finish a fine third in a competitive Handicap. He's never won over six furlongs in his career so far but I don't think that he doesn't stay this distance actually. The way he ran on well on heavy ground lto really suggest that the distance is no problem whatsoever. Just three races ago he won pretty well a 5f sprint at Doncaster in heavy conditions as well but was he was outpaced 3f out there actually while he finished strongly in the end to win comfortably. He went only 3lb up for this win and I feel his most recent performance confirmed that he is competitive of this mark and also capable of going close over 6f. He drops back into class 4 company and this race here tomorrow is weaker than the last one indeed. so I really can see an ideal chance to finally win over 6 furlongs tomorrow.

Wednesday 10th of October

20.30 Kempton: Whitby Jet 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win
I thought Whitby Jet ran a massive race at Lingfield recently. He stepped up to 11.5f for the first time and was ridden very patiently as he was held up and travelled well enough in rear of the field many lengths off the pace. That meant though he had to make loads of ground in the closing stages if he wanted to have a say about the outcome of the race. It turned out that he gained an awful load of ground in the final three furlongs indeed as he powered home to be only beaten by 2 lengths in the end. He could have gone much closer however if he wouldn't have had so much to do I suppose. Whitby Jet drops one pound in the mark for this effort which brings his mark down to 70. He's back on the All-Weather tomorrow, a surface he has never won at but has been placed four times in six starts. This will be then only his second start of a distance further than 10f and he shaped as if he really relishes this step up which means he could be now easily well handicapped. It's a competitive race here tomorrow, but Whitby Jet may improve again and take advantage of his slipping mark. In addition the excellent apprentice Michael J M Murphy is booked for the ride which can be only a bonus as this guy has a 33% strike rate at Kempton this season.

Tuesday 9th of October...

No 'luck' today whatsoever. All three selections ran very well and gave me a run for the money, they didn't come really close to win it, though. All three selections finished 3rd in the end, which is close, but obviously not close enough unfortunately. I thought Arctic Lynx was a bit unlucky as he had some in-running trouble and would have gone a bit closer with a clear run I suppose. What means he's one to keep an eye on if turned out the next time.

14.00 Catterick: Just Paul @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3 pts win

I totally ignore his first three starts in maidens as it makes much more sense to judge the horse on its most recent run, the first one in handicap company. I thought that was a pretty interesting performance as he bounced well out off the gates actually but was then badly bumped in to the rails by another horse in the early stages of the race and as a result of this he lost his good early position and was relegated to the rear of the field which was an awful place to be that day at Catterick as almost all winners at this meeting won their races from the front or prominently ridden. Just Paul though travelled smartly through the race nonetheless till 2f out and made some good progress on the inside rail in the closing stages, however the leaders where gone and not to catch. He finished third in the end as the best one of the horses coming from the rear of the field and I think this was a very decent performance taking all the circumstances into account. He remains on the same mark for tomorrow but drops in distance. That looks not entirely in his favour according to his pedigree but his sire won over 5f & 6f as a 2yo and also showed a preference for softish going which will be encountered at Catterick tomorrow. So that should be definitely in favour for Just Paul then who also drops down in to class 6 here tomorrow which is a really poor race anyway while his good performance lto came in a solid class 4 nursery. With further improvement expected on his only fifth start and with conditions likely to suit I think he can give young apprentice David Bergin a first success at Catterick.



20.00 Wolverhampton: Xinbama @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Simply don't understand the price for Xinbama who comes into the race after two eye-catching performances. I thought he ran a mighty race at Sandown when he was a clear run denied over 3f out yet finished strongly when finally in the clear in a good class 4 Handicap, while he was also not the luckiest one at Wolverhampton last time out when he found life really difficult in the home straight, though he ran on very well when he had the room to do so. Both performances gave me the impression that he's in excellent form and well able to win of his current handicap mark, while the handicapper obviously doesn't agree with me as Xinbama dropped 2lb since the Sandown run. I'm not complaining about this though. He's now 2lb below his last winning mark even though this success came on turf at Beverly, but he has also winning form on the All-Weather to offer. Wolverhampton can be often a nightmare for horses that coming from behind like Xinbama and this is actually not a bad race if you consider that it is only a class 5 handicap for 3yo at Wolverhampton on a Tuesday night, but I think the price is a good deal too big for his chance here anyway.

Monday 8th of October 2012...

16.00 Wolverhampton: Arctic Lynx @ 7/1 Betfair - 2pts win

He looked a bit high in the weights this summer but his most recent performance in a ultra competitive sprint at Sandown really caught my eye indeed. He was a bit outpaced in the middle of the race bust still travelled okay till 2f out or so when he had though a wall of horses in front of him and nowhere to go. He switched to the inside eventually and finished the race nicely only hands and heels ridden and surly could have gone closer with a clear run. This was a pretty messy race but the form works out really well with Face The Problem being subsequently placed and also a winner in very hot class 2 sprints and subsequent winners Kyleakin Lass & Ajjaadd. Arctic Lynx drops in class today, back in a class 4 Handicap and he goes up in distance, back over 6f - all his wins came over this distance so this should definitely suit - he's done well on the All-Weather in recent years as well and also drops 2lb in the mark. In addition he has the very talented apprentice Michael J M Murphy in the saddle who takes off another 5lb and which must give Arctic Lynx all in all a massive chance here today. The wide draw, though, can be a bit tricky sometimes at Wolverhampton and it looks a competitive race, therefore I make it only a 2pts win bet.



16.50 Windsor: Hurricane Lady @ 5/1 VC - 3pts win

Very impressive performance at Leicester last time out for Hurricane Lady who raced in rear of the field and travelled like a dream for a long time till she kicked quite easily away from the rest of the field in the final furlong. She looked to have a bit in hand and is obviously very much back in form. She went only 6lb up in the mark for this really comfortable win which looks pretty lenient to me. Sure, she has to overcome a career highest mark and takes a step up in class but she travelled and won so smartly two weeks ago that I'm expecting a big performance again. Soft conditions should be in her favour anyway and she ran a super race here at Windsor last year when she was unlucky to finish only a half a lengths beaten second. So track is fine as well and I feel she is a pretty big price for all that actually.

17.00 Wolverhampton: Quiet Appeal @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2 pts win

Quiet Appeal really comes down to a very handy mark now again and being back on the All-Weather will surly help her to be competitive tomorrow. I think her recent forms are largely to ignore as last time out for example she raced on bottomless ground at Hamilton, something she doesn't like at all and she was really keen and pulling hard in the early stages of the race either. That must have cost valuable energy therefore it was no surprise to see her well beaten in the end. But she is now 5lb below her last winning mark, which came on a sound surface at Beverly earlier the year and one pound below her last AW winning mark. She usually runs very well on the All-Weather anyway and has already won over course and distance. She should go well tomorrow I think.

One for the Arc...

Well, I said yesterday there wont be a selection for today but after working myself intensively through the Arc card I've to say it is impossible for me to leave one horse alone that I really fancy. It's a big price, it's only a 1pt win bet therefore and the pressure is not that big but I do really think it is a wise bet in a tricky race...

Bayrir - underestimated in the Arc

15.25 Longchamp: Bayrir @ 22/1 VC - 1pt win

 I think this years Arc is a wide open affair and I can see a winner for a big price again as we had with Danedream last year as I'm not really convinced by the horses at the head of the betting marked for various reasons. Most appeal at a pretty massive price makes Bayrir to me. I don't really understand why he's more than double the price of Sanois, who of course must have a good chance today but I think the same applies to Bayrir. He won four of his six career starts, all this year and he improved all the way through the season. He landed his first Group 1 at Arlington in August when he won the Secretariat Stakes and I thought his performance in the Prix Niel was a very fine one. Connections of Bayrir had obviously the same impression as they supplemented him for 100k for the Arc as this was not the plan in first hand. 

But trainer Royer Dupre said that they were taken by surprise by Bayrir's performance in the Nil as he was nowhere near fit in that race and that he doesn't want to wait till the Breeders Cup as he feels Bayrir can improve further which gives him a chance in the Arc. He is lightly raced indeed and should be okay on the ground, and it will be only his second start over 12 furlongs, so there is every chance that he can be even better than what he showed so far. The draw is a concern, though. He's to come from barrier 14 which is far from an advantage of course but this is something I feel is more than reflected in the price and taking everything into account I think Bayrir is very much overpriced.

Two winners on Saturday...

Mince wins in a photo at Ascot today

Saturday was an excellent day I suppose with two winners. Peachez finally managed to win a race again after hitting four times the crossbar in a row in recent weeks. She made a big move 3f out at Wolverhampton today and was delivered much earlier than in most of her last starts. That was the trick for her here to be successful. Mince, my biggest bet today, showed great attitude to win the Group 3 sprint at Ascot in a photo. She surly is better on decent ground but really showed tremendous will to win today. Excellent performance again and she should be able to improve again. The first bet of the day, El Manati, went close in 3rd, but was slightly hampered in the closing stages, so maybe a shade unlucky and still one to keep an eye on. Rhossili Bay finished 3rd as well but was a good deal beaten actually and a bit disappointing considering that I made him a 4pts strong win bet. 

But I don't want to complain too much. The week ended certainly on a high, with four winners and a healthy profit. This is the right way and and I can assure you I found some interesting horses that caught my eye in this week again. I'm as confident as never before in what I'm doing anyway. There wont be a selection for tomorrow, though. It's Arc day, I know, but it will be day only for the joy of racing.I have no horse running from my list and that means full attention is towards the great races at Longchamp tomorrow. Loads of great horses, fantastic races... it's what racing is about and it's important never to forget the love and passion for the sport. It's not all about betting. And that's why I really hope Camelot and Frankie can win the big race. What a fanstastic story that would be. But I'd not bet on it...

Saturday 06/10/12...

14.00 Ascot: El Manati @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 3pts win
 

I was very much interested in her when she finished 5th at Salisbury lto. That performance didn't change much for me, as she went off far to fast from the front and tired badly in the closing stages. It certainly takes nothing away from the fact that I believe she's Group class and with Johnny Murtagh booked for the ride she gets the best possible assistance today. Only the ground is a slight worry as she never encountered softish going before. But looking back to her fantastic performance at Leicester, when she had to overcome the widest draw, pulled hard, was unsettled, pulled over from her wide draw to take the lead and won on the bridle by 9 lengths breaking the track record for 2yo lto! It's hard not to be impressed with that performance and she should have much more to offer I feel today. 

15.05: Ascot: Mince @ 5/2 Blue Square - 5pts win

Mince is a lovely progressive filly and she's on a four timer today. I didn't take too much notice of her till her most recent race at York when she showed a performance that really had the WOW factor. She travelled like a dream in a good Listed race and showed an exceptionable turn of foot to score easily by 3½ lengths. Absolutely impressive performance and I don't see why she shouldn't be very competitive in this Group 3 here today again. She's not a finished article and can still improve further, even though the soft ground at Ascot might be not hundred percent ideal today. She has form on that kind of ground though and that means she's very much the horse to beat in this field here.



Wolverhampton 19.20: Peachez @ 11/2 William Hill - 2pts win

Peachez is very consistent but very frustrating as well as she finished four times in a row in 2nd place! That shows she is definitely in excellent form and I thought at Lingfield lto she was poised to win but a poor ride by her jockey cost her the win I felt. She travelled super well as usually in rear of the field but the jockey opted for the inside route where she was a clear run denied, though. The bird was flown when she finally got some daylight. The long time leader was already many lengths ahead, yet she ran on very well in the closing stages. She confirmed her excellent form with this fine performance and if things finally fall right for her she'll win. That can be today I think.



19.50 Wolverhampton: Rhossili Bay @ 7/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

 She didn't show much in three maidens but looked very much improved on her Handicap debut at Wolverhampton lto. She didn't have the best of starts there and had to race in rear of the field, turning for home she was a bit short of room as her jockey decided to opt for the inside route which often is not an advantage at Wolverhampton I feel. Yet Rhossili Bay finished strongly to finish in 3rd just 1¾ lengths beaten in the end. She remains on the same mark so basically gets a chance by the handicapper and with more improvement expected she could be easily too good here today in this poor class 6 Handicap.

Breathtaking Breeders Cup promo...

I'm not the biggest fan of US racing and not of the Breeders Cup either. However the following promo video for the upcoming renewal of the Breeders Cup is just outstanding. Well worth to watch. Enjoy!

Galatian does the business...

Galitian wins by  1¼ lengths at Wolverhampton

Good performance by Galatian today. He won it in good style hugging the rail all along, which can be often not the best route at Wolverhampton. This time it works and Galatian looked too have a bit in hand, he looks a tricky ride though. He was heavily backed through the day, and went off the 4/1 second favourite. The money was right in this case.

Two winners in a row now for me, which is good as I'm back in the profit. I'm still very angry with myself as a result of the foolish 10pts bet on Tuesday though. It's was simply not a clever bet. I didn't follow my rules. I got the right punishment for it. Anyway, the night is still young and I'll have some interesting horses on the list for tomorrow. Have now to work out which of them is really a strong chance and worth a bet. Later more about that. 

> 9 Bets / Staked: 37pts / Profit: +4,50 pts

04/10/12 Thursday...

Dana's Present was a very convincing winner yesterday. Off the mark now but the second selection was disappointing though.

> 8 Bets / Staked: 34pts / Profit: -16,5pts

18.40 Wolverhampton: Galatian @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Very interesting performance at Kempton last time out when racing on the All-Weather for the first time. He had the widest draw to overcome and looked very much beaten turning into the home straight but finished like a train eventually gaining an awful lot of ground. Normally he is best when ridden very prominently so this has to be considered a very good performance. He's now down to a handy mark again after a couple of poor performances on turf but looked to adapt well to the new surface. He's down in distance today and also takes a drop in class. I think that all will help and he should be very competitive today.

Wednesday 03/10/12...

No win for my selection, disappointing again.

> 6 Bets / Staked: 26pts / Profit: -26pts 

17.40 Kempton: First Fast Now @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

21 races and just one win - not really encouraging of course, but First Fast Now responded very well to the switch for surface lto when he encountered All-Weather for the first time. He had a bumped start and was early ridden by his young jockey as a result of this and didn't travelled at all but the way he finished the race was promising indeed as he came from last to finish a gallant 2nd just hands and heels ridden. He remains on the same mark but drops in class which should really help to win a race again and to give his young rider the first taste of success.



19.10 Kempton: Dana's Present @ 5/2 Bet365 - 5 pts win

Three eye-catching performances in the row for Dana's Present. The first one at the end of August at Kempton when he travelled super well but was short of room in the closing stages and therefore only finished 3rd. He put that right just two weeks later at the same venue when he equally travelled super well but this time got a clear run and just won it in good style. He went only 4lb up for this easy victory and looked poised to win back-back races just four days ago at Wolverhampton when he travelled best of all again but had absolutely no room to go 1f out what surly cost the win. He remains on the same mark but is back at Kempton a track which should suit a bit better I suppose thanks to the longer home straight. If he gets a clear run tomorrow he'll be hard to beat I think.

02/10/12: Tuesday...

Scottish Boogie finished an unlucky 2nd, beaten by a very narrow margin. Unlucky. Hawaana was disappointing though. So no winner since I started here the blog again. Too bad.

> 5 Bets / Staked: 16pts / Profit: -16pts 

16.30 Wolverhampton: Infinitum @ 11/8 Bet365 - 10pts

Infinitum sets a pretty good standard her I feel and should be hard to beaten having her most recent run in mind when she finished a gallant second to a very progressive winner. She really ran on very well in the closing stages after being hampered 3f out. This was her fifth start though and she's yet to win a race but back in maiden company here today she really should break her maiden tag finally. I have maximal confidence behind this selection anyway.