Well, I said yesterday there wont be a selection for today but after working myself intensively through the Arc card I've to say it is impossible for me to leave one horse alone that I really fancy. It's a big price, it's only a 1pt win bet therefore and the pressure is not that big but I do really think it is a wise bet in a tricky race...
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| Bayrir - underestimated in the Arc |
15.25 Longchamp: Bayrir @ 22/1 VC - 1pt win
I think this years Arc is a wide open affair and I can see a winner for a big price again as we had with Danedream last year as I'm not really convinced by the horses at the head of the betting marked for various reasons. Most appeal at a pretty massive price makes Bayrir to me. I don't really understand why he's more than double the price of Sanois, who of course must have a good chance today but I think the same applies to Bayrir. He won four of his six career starts, all this year and he improved all the way through the season. He landed his first Group 1 at Arlington in August when he won the Secretariat Stakes and I thought his performance in the Prix Niel was a very fine one. Connections of Bayrir had obviously the same impression as they supplemented him for 100k for the Arc as this was not the plan in first hand.
I think this years Arc is a wide open affair and I can see a winner for a big price again as we had with Danedream last year as I'm not really convinced by the horses at the head of the betting marked for various reasons. Most appeal at a pretty massive price makes Bayrir to me. I don't really understand why he's more than double the price of Sanois, who of course must have a good chance today but I think the same applies to Bayrir. He won four of his six career starts, all this year and he improved all the way through the season. He landed his first Group 1 at Arlington in August when he won the Secretariat Stakes and I thought his performance in the Prix Niel was a very fine one. Connections of Bayrir had obviously the same impression as they supplemented him for 100k for the Arc as this was not the plan in first hand.
But trainer Royer Dupre said that they were taken by surprise by Bayrir's performance in the Nil as he was nowhere near fit in that race and that he doesn't want to wait till the Breeders Cup as he feels Bayrir can improve further which gives him a chance in the Arc. He is lightly raced indeed and should be okay on the ground, and it will be only his second start over 12 furlongs, so there is every chance that he can be even better than what he showed so far. The draw is a concern, though. He's to come from barrier 14 which is far from an advantage of course but this is something I feel is more than reflected in the price and taking everything into account I think Bayrir is very much overpriced.
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