14.40 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f - Conditions ensure that this will a wide open contest. This contest for two year olds is full of lightly raced sorts, and only a handful has every tried the trip, or has encountered soft ground before. So it's hard to have too much confidence in any horse and for that reason I concentrate on the bigger prices horses in this field. Most appeal of them makes clearly Smaih, a recent winner on his second career start and a a son of Paco Boy, who had a fine start with his offspring so far. Smaih won a rather poor maiden at Chepstow, but the way he did it was impressive. Nice turn of foot, almost hands and heels to win it by three lengths, despite hanging and being still quite green. Form doesn't look too shabby since the 3rd finished a good runner-up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. Smaih was only half a lengths beaten on debut, and the winner of that race went on to run big in the Coventry Stakes.
Smaih should relish the step up in trip. His sire Paco Boy was a classy miler but also an excellent 7f horse. He won on soft. There is stamina on the dam side and form on soft going through the dam's sire too. That suggests that trip and ground should be fine for Smaih. Obviously he has to prove it now but be is a bib price to do so. --- Smaih @ 12/1 Betfair - 1pt win
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| Mica Mika |
17.35 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f - It seems rather easy to discount a good deal of the runners in this field just on the basis of ground, trip, handicap mark and current form. There are two outstanding chances in this race though, if is about the conditions. Mica Mika hasn't won of a mark as high as he is on at the moment - on turf at least- but he has never had a better chance to do so. He has winning form on soft ground and is multiple winner over 12f of marks up to 77. He was mightly unlucky at Windsor a fortnight ago, when he was one pound out of the handicap, so was basically racing of 78. He travelled best of all and seemed poised for a big challenge from over 2f out. Unfortunately he never got out and was stuck in traffic until he crossed the finish line on the bridle. He should have won that race that day and can redeem himself today with conditions in favour.
Rosslyn Castle could be a big danger. His two starts on the flat this year haven't been too encouraging, but he is down to a very handy mark now. He is 10lb below his last flat winning mark and his best form came over 12f with cut in the ground. so this combination of a handy weight, perfect ground and trip, must give him a big chance to go close today.
Mica Mika @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win
Rosslyn Castle @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt e/w
15.30 York: John Smith's City Walls Stakes (Listed) - Kingsgate Native is dropping into Listed company and should be hard to beat since he seems to be as good as ever with strong recent form in the book. However he's only a fair price. Behind it seems fairly open and while the 3yo must have a chance with their weight allowance, I fancy long-shot Whozthecat to do well today. He probably needed his recent run, which came in soft conditions over 6f, which was never going to suit anyway. back over 5f on quick ground - that is what he likes. He was late progressing as a 6yo last season, when he landed a big Handicap at the Curragh, which poses very strong form, since horses behind him that day subsequently won Listed and Group races. If he can be anywhere near that kind of form, he in with a big shout today. I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he hasn't won at York before, but with conditions in favour, and hopefully stripping fitter, he's a lively outsider in this race. --- Whozthecat @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win
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