Sunday, July 6, 2014

REVIEW - What happened in the Durban July?

Opinions are divided about the end result for obvious reasons. People are in the camp of either the winner, Legislate, stating the result was altered for good reason. Others are in the camp of Wylie Hall, who won the actual race, and many argue, would have won even without interference. If you had a bet on WH, or if you're connected to the horse, you will feel hard done by considering the horse seemed to kept finding and didn't let Legislate pass him. From a neutral perspective, this result wouldn't have been changed in the UK I would imagine, but there are different rules in South Africa, and for that it was probably a correct decision. 


The severity of the actual interference becomes not obvious in the video above, but only really in a certain head-on close up: This one. There you can see that initially Legislate is shifting towards WH, however this happened behind the back of him and didn't have any impact. Then Legislate tries to pass but WH is fighting back, however is hanging to the left side, carrying Legislate over towards the stands rail. Horses touch each other around three to four times, there are at least two severe bumps from WH towards Legislate, which have probably affected his stride. Also WH was drifting further and further to the left. I suppose this case can be compared to the Elusive Kate/Sky Lantern race in the Falmouth last year. In the end, talking about the 2014 July, the result was very tight and impacted by Wylie Hall's interference, and therefore altered. That seems harsh, and If I would have backed WH, I would feel depleted, for sure. On the other hand, it is the correct decision after all in my mind, because the interference prevented Legislate from running straight and striding out properly. On a side-note: Having backed Legislate, I'm more than happy with it, for obvious reasons... 

What else? Well, we have to talk about pace. This was a big topic before the race and one of the reasons why I included two intended prominent runner in my betting (see preview). However I think nobody thought things would pan out the way it effectively did. There was for most parts of the race no pace on whatsoever. Jockeys on fancied horsed were caught napping. Anton Marcus on Rake's Chestnut, Kevin Shea on favourite Louis The King - they were heavily complaining afterwards, yet they didn't do anything against it when they could have done so. Sitting in rear, no movement - they are so experienced and should have known better. They had never any chance from their position in the race eventually. And here it is where you have to give credit to the jockeys of the first and second - particularly Richard Fourie on Legislate. He was prepared for this situation. Usually Legislate finishes from off the pace. But this time, despite the wide draw, Fourie steered his mount straight to the front of the race, was even leading for a while as long as nobody else wanted to take it up. That's why he was in the right position when it mattered, so was Wylie Hall. 

Futura stayed on strongly, was racing in midfield, around seven lengths off the pace for most parts of the race and the way he finished was really impressive. He was the hype horse and he has delivered in excellent manner. He is a Grade 1 winner in the making. Tellina, who was thought to dislike this track, was closer to the pace than usual, and it paid off. Outpaced when the race unfolded, he stayed on in fourth. I always though he looks more like a stayer and I believe with a positive ride, over 12f at Turffontain for example, he could be a Grade 1 winner. De Kock's Espumanti was backed heavily before the off and had a good position in the race, however was fighting early with her jockey and burned valuable energy. She lost the race in those early moments. Halve The Deficit had every chance, but seemed to find the additional furlong too far as he lost his place in the money in the closing stages. In The Fast Lane travelled extremely well and finished strongly. She was too far off the pace though. Yet an encouraging performance against the boys for the best 3yo filly in South Africa. Captain America was fighting as always with his jockey, he almost came down when he stumbled early on. I suspect he might gelded now and will race over shorter in the future. Louis The King and Rake's Chestnut had no chance whatsoever. Finishing wide turning home almost last, was just an impossible task. 

So what remains from this race: A controversial result in South Africa's richest and greatest race. A result altered for the first time in history. The best 3yo in the county, declared as the winner in the stewards room. Legislate will be campaigned with the Queen's Plate and the J&B Met in mind for next season, he'll gothen into quarantine for a campaign in Dubai, if all goes well. I think if he stays sound, he'll have a big future. This horse won this year a Guineas, the Cape Derby, the Daily News and now the July. Just astonishing!

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