The Eye-Catcher - Wednesday 1st October 2014

17.45 Kempton: First Rebellion @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win

First Rebellion is one of the horses highlighted in our new Eye-Catchers column. He is quite an interesting horse in this poor class 7 Handicap tomorrow - for plenty of reasons. He drops another 2lb since his most recent impressive run, has a good draw for his front-running tactics and I can't see too much competition for the lead. Should be straightforward and Kempton's 5f track favours horses up with the speed. His profile as per our Eye-Catchers list:

"First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably."

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Modernism, our Tuesday selection, ran a perfect race and finished very creditable runner-up, only beaten by handicap debutante and feather weight Dream Child.  

PREVIEW: Race Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September

18.20 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f

Mubtadi: Returned recently after a break at this venue, travelled well enough but tired badly in the home straight. Badly needed the run. Another month long break now is a worry. Travelled like the winner in March over course and distance when back from almost a year long break, just beaten by horse in front that pulled out more. Loves the All-Weather, and on that form chance with 5lb claimer, if back to best.

Off The Pulse: Progressive this summer since getting off the mark over course and distance off 3lb lower back in December. Won class 3 handicap at Haydock, followed up with strong runner-up performance at Ayr. Chance to progress further and on fair mark.

God's Speed: Won maiden over CD by ten lengths back in February, but beat donkeys that day. Since then racing of high marks usually in hot company. Best performance over CD ten days ago in better class, travelling wide and good move from 4f out but tired worryingly inside final furlong. May need more assistance from handicapper but down in grade and in smaller field might help to see him competitive.

Modernism: Slipping down in the mark and can race off 5lb below his last winning mark (over CD, and looked good for more that day). Clear return to form in competitive 12f handicap at Kempton last week, staying on well from off the pace where it favoured horses up with the speed due to a pedestrian pace. Drops down to favoured 9f trip after being campaigned over further throughout the year. Should be very competitive. 

Mazaaher: Clearly going strongly on the All-Weather. Won in August over CD off 4lb lower showing guts and determination and followed up with strong performance when only narrowly denied. Disappointing on turf subsequently, but back on the AW will help and must be an obvious contender with further improvement not unlikely. 

Dutch Rifle: Didn't stay 11f last time out, but is two from two over course and distance. Still lightly raced and as 3yo obvious chance with WFO allowance. If quite good enough against hot opposition remains to be seen as hasn't fired on this kind of level yet.

Dream Child: Contested in good maidens on the All-Weather and placed in all three of them, while beaten there by some good individuals. Didn't seem to stay 10f in all those starts. Handicap debut now and slight drop in trip will surly help as he's bred for much shorter. Mark looks fair and prominent racing style could be advantage if not too much pace is on.

Verdict: An extremely competitive and deep contest. Any of the seven horses has a fair chance to get the head in front. Pace should be on with Dream Child, God's Speed and Dutch Rifle - they are all likely to have the desire to be up with the speed. Godolphin's Dream Child seems a rather short favourite considering how competitive this race is, even though he makes plenty of appeal from a pure weight perspective, receiving weight all around. He didn't look to stay 10f in three starts though, and the drop in trip to nine furlongs might not be enough for him. He's bred for shorter. Off The Pulse is a solid contender, has a fine CD record and if he's fit after a break, he should be thereabouts. He doesn't strike as a particularly well handicapped individual, though. Mazaaher won well over CD not too long ago. He can progress further, has to put a poor recent showing behind however. The remaining three year old contenders Dutch Rifle and God's Speed may be well capable of further improvement, but that says that they have enough to do from their current marks. Mubtadi is to a certain extend a key horse. If he could find back to his best, he'll be a very dangerous contender. He has been fading quite badly when seen the last time, and perception is that he may struggle yet again here. Leaves us with Modernism. He has plenty going for him in the right direction. The drop in trip back to his optimum should be a big help, so should be the fact that he is well handicapped on old form, and his recent strong Kempton run suggests, that he is hitting a bit of form and is the one they all have to beat. 

Modernism @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 3pts win

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Winner: Mondays race of the day turned out to be the cracker, we hoped it would be in advance, There was loads of early speed on, we got an exciting and tight finish ANDR the right result from a betting perspective. Favourite Red Lady lead the field as expected and travelled smoothly indeed. However the handicapper seems to have finally caught her, as she wasn't quite able to sustain her powerful effort for as long as it was required this time. The strong travelling Royal Birth went past her in the dying strides and was well on top crossing the line eventually, winning it by ¾ of a lengths. Oisin Murphy gave the Exceed and Excel a peach of a ride  - btw. this was the first Bath winner ever for the young Irish jockey - and the lightly raced colt seems well able to progress even further. Good for us: In the betting he wasn't really fancied and an SP of 8/1 is a welcome bonus.

Eye-Catchers - With an eye on the future

A new (well in fact a rather old column, if you still know the old blog) on Horseracing-International.com: Providing a regular list of horses that caught my eye for numerous occasions. Bringing up this column again because the All-Weather season is due to kick off and that provides usually very good opportunities, as the same horses do race oftrn again and over the winter, so you get to know them well, and of course it is a feasible amount of racing to watch - as that is the most important part of the exercise - which makes things easier. I expect this to be successful, as it used to be in the past, particularly in the last winter, when the eye-catchers did an excellent job for the blog.

Al, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Maiden: Interesting debut run for this Haling son. He got hampered right after the start but settled okay soon after towards the end of the field. He seemed to be slightly outpaced coming around the home bend and needed a bit encouraging by the jockey on board to keep on travelling, but in the it wasn't more than a light hands and heels ride and Al stayed on well to finish a fine 3rd over a trip which should be well short of what she requires. The winner of this race should go on to do well too, but for Al the future might lie in Handicaps. She has plenty of stamina left and right of her pedigree and will improve once stepping up in trip.I suspect that she will have two more maiden starts over 6f before she goes handicapping over a new trip and a potentially lenient mark.

State Of Union, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Nursery: Nursery debut that night and had to overcome the widest draw in the race. He marched to the front straight from there, while looking extremely keen and he must have used allot of energy in those early parts of the race. Yet he travelled strongly and kicked clear in the home straight. He got a bit tired in the end but brought it home. He has the pedigree of progressive 2yo sprinter and his revised mark (78) is potentially still underestimating his class. If he can settle better and has a better draw the next time, he can win again.

Yodelling, 2yo filly - Kempton 5th September, 7f Conditions Stakes: The filly couldn't have been more impressive on her racecourse debut. She appeared to be a bit green turning for home, but appeared back on the bridle and looming strongly from 2f out. In the end she won easily and emerges as a very exciting prospect. Extremely well bred, she has a good deal of stamina on her dam side, and her profile is pointing towards middle distance. She looks a very nice big, scopy filly and should improve as a 3yo. She has some potential and might even be a filly that we will see in Dubai later on.

First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably. 

Bosstime, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 9f Handicap: Only his second start since coming over from Ireland. Sluggish start and had to use an awful lot of energy to get up to the front after the start. Travelled best of all their turning for home when making move from 3f out. Didn't quite see out the trip. Best performances came over 1m in Irland in competitive maidens and Handicaps when he finished runner-up three times. Expect him to drop further in the mark and down to a mile, should see him able to win a race. Blinkers would also be interesting. 

Maggie Pink, 5yo mare - Kempton 25th September, 1m Handicap: Prolific front-runner but had a tough task in her latest start. Back after a summer break as top weight in a hot handicap, of a career highest mark over a trip that stretches her stamina. It was never her day. She did well for that, set a quick pace and led the field by a couple of lengths approaching the home straight. As expected she tired badly in the closing stages. Once she gets a bit of leniency from the handicapper and drops doen to her optimum 7f, she'll be well able to win another race or even races as her last performances before the break clearly indicating that she is still improving. 

Steal The Scene, 2yo colt - Kempton 25th September, 6f Nursery: Lightly raced, fast improving colt. Won Windsor maiden in tacking style and was mightily impressive here at Kempton. He was caught up behind a wall of horses and had nowhere to go from 3f out. His jockey take a big pull and dropped him subsequently out to last, in order to switch from the inside rails to the widest outside. The colt found his stride very quickly again and thundered home strongly. Only a resonably talented horse is capable of doing such a move as smoothly as he did. He appears to be well handicapped and it is unlikely that the handicapper will put him up for this. 

Wentworth Falls, 2yo gelding - Wolverhampton 11th September, 7f Maiden: Seems a tricky customer but has talent. Jumped quickly and led field, setting a quick pace. A strong galloper he is, he had the whole field off the bridle turning for home with a healthy advantage. When things seemed settled, his jockey gave him an additional crack with the whip to keep him focused entering the final furlong. Suddenly the gelding started to hang towards the rail badly, probably running away from the whip which cost vital momentum and a staying on rival fought him down eventually. He'll go handicapping next probably, and depending on the opening mark, could be underestimated. He is still green but will learn and as a  Full brother to smart miler Strawberrydaiquiri, has certainly the right pedigree.

Steeldriver, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 27th September, 7f Handicap: This horse is going to win next time - if the handicapper isn't too hard on him. Reasons are obvious. After missing the break, he used loads of energy to go around whole field making up for the lost ground. While he was travelling always wide, he started big move from 4f out and turned for home as leader thanks to some impressive acceleration. He seemed to put the race to bed in a matter of strides and certainly looked the clear winner entering the final furlong. His jockey felt probably the same way and turned around one numerous occasions to see where his rivals are. He did this one time too often approaching the half furlong marker. Losing concentration on keeping the horses for a split second, allowed the gelding to drift towards the rail and through that losing momentum - which in turn cost the race as a rival cam thundering down from behind getting up on the line. Steeldriver was down to a career lowest mark and is clearly better than that, particularly over the 7f trip, which seems his optimum. Even if the handicapper puts him up two or three pounds, he should be well in. 

Race of the day - Monday 29th September

15.50 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Al Senad: Won 5f maiden at Beverly in tremendous style. Disappointing that he couldn't follow up in two subsequent starts. Drops 5lb in mark, and that might make him competitive again. Track could suit.

Red Lady: Two from two over course and distance. Much improved since having hood this season, progressive and might not be the end for her. With apprentice allowance gone this time, she is effectively 6lb higher for her recent narrow win. 

The Dandy Yank: Competitive and progressive earlier this summer. Won Kempton claimer recently, but subsequently disappointing in Wolverhampton handicap. High enough mark.

Royal Birth: Runaway maiden winner at Wolverhampton. Couldn't follow up subsequently in two strong handicaps (strong form). Slipping mark can help to become competitive again and this looks easier on paper. Still lightly raced and back after break.

Threetimesalady: Drops in trip which needs to bring out improvement as otherwise looks on high enough mark. Hasn't shown any sparkle this season.

Shilla: Has course form and went close over 6f earlier this summer. Minimum trip seems too short and doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Was a good deal beaten in a similar race a fortnight ago.

Gulland Rock: Ran well over minimum trip earlier this year when he won at Catterick and followed with three runner-up efforts subsequently. Not completely out of this but need to show improvement. 

Verdict: Close contest on paper and hard to fancy anyone with confidence. Red Lady loves it here but has a new career highest mark to defy and won only by the tightest of margins while having the run of the race. She might get company up on front this time. Al Senad would be interesting if he could find back to his strong Beverly run, but on balance he looks still high enough in the mark. Most interesting is Royal Birth for a pretty big looking price. He looked extremely good when blitzing his rivals in a Wolverhampton maiden this winter, couldn't quite follow up in the summer in hot handicaps, but is subsequently down in the mark and this here is a tick easier. He remains of interest and could be better than the current rating. 

Royal Birth @ 7/1 Bet365 – 3pts win

PREVIEW: Land Rover Nursery (Class 4)

15.20 Ripon: Land Rover Nursery (Class 4)

Bizarrio: Won maiden at Chester over 7f from front. Found out for class on handicap debut subsequently. Should be suited by step up in trip on pedigree. Stiff mark though for what he has achieved in maidens. 

Grey Sensation: Impressive maiden winner on penultimate start over 7f. Excused last time when beaten by smart winner and disadvantaged how race panned out, while travelling well actually. Got carried across the track from 2f out too. Step up in trip looks fine on pedigree. Potentially on lenient mark now.

Cape Hideaway: Very gutsy maiden winner over 7f lto. Pulling his way to the front, slightly outpaced 3f out and fought gamely on to the line. Fair opening mark. Up in trip looks possible, will need to learn to settle. 

Laidback Romeo: Not quite lucky last too times, not clear run for very long time on handicap debut recently, finished nicely. Not impossible to get trip with stamina on dam side. 

Lear'sRock: Excellent Handicap debut, made all, just beaten late on the line by closer. Up 3lb which seems fair. Form starts to work out. Step up to mile could work. 

Summer Stroll: Finished strongly in latest handicap when stuck in traffic for long time.. Seems rather exposed but judged on recent performance is clearly up to winning of current mark. Enough in pedigree to suggest step up in trip can bring out bit of improvement.

Verdict: Wide open race, plenty of chances and most horses trying the mile for the first time. Not unlikely to suit most, but also not clear that it does. Laidback Romeo was probably unlucky at Sandown recently, but as to prove stamina, as he was fading badly in a slowly 7f contest before. Grey Sensation is interesting, won well a maiden and was not quite suited the way the raxce was run in a strong handicap, down in class, he is a fine chance on balance. Lear's Rock did well from th e front when beaten late, but new trip and higher mark is something to be cautious about I feel. Bizarrio needs to bounce back. Summer Stroll as the bottom weights makes plenty of appeal over the new trip to suit and with the recent strong performance in a hot handicap, even though he is the one with most mileage under the belt. He seems rather big in the market as he should have as good a chance as anybody. Completely overlooked seems Cape Hideaway- Ground and trip as slight concerns, but he showed loads of guts when winning a decent Thirsk maiden, which form looks solid with the second having won subsequently. 

Summer Stroll @ 7/1 Betfred – 2pts win

Cape Hideaway @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 1pt win

PREVIEW: Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

15.10 Newmarket: Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)

A hot contest with classy juveniles - it's fair to say that it'll fast and furious! Some of the best two year old sprinters gonna meet in this contest on the highest possible level. Obvious favourite is Richard Hannon's precocious ultra speedy filly Tiggy Wiggy. Not many have foreseen that she would develop into the classy speed ball that she is now, when she appeared on the Kempton All-Weather on her debut. She won by seven lengths that day! Since then she has won another four races, including the prestigious Lowther Stakes, beating subsequent Group 1 winner Cursory Glance rather easily. It won't be an easy task today, though. She is on the go already for quite a while this year, and her only run on quick ground resulted in a defeat - even though a very narrow one, and over 5f. The rather testing Newmarket 6f may be something, not quite playing into her hands either. So if you want to find flaws in her form, then you can find them. But no doubt, she is an extremely exciting filly! 

Queen Mary Staes conquer Anthem Alexander did bet Tiggy Wiggy that day at Royal Ascot. The Hannon filly put the record straight in the Lowther stakes subequently, then over 6f instead of the shorter trip, though. And it is the trip indeed which emerges as the main question for Anthem Alexander. She seems a top class sprinter, particularly over five furlongs. Could it be that the additional furlong is beyond her? We'll find out today. The French filly High Celebrity doesn't have to answer stamina questions. She won over 7f on debut, finished runner-up in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes when beaten as long odds-on favourite, even though things didn't really work her way that particular day and she is better judged on her recent success in a French Group 3 over five furlongs, when she drew clear in fine style in the closing stages. She looks open to much more improvement, she is still very lightly raced and the fact that Andre Fabre brings her over again is a big confidence boost, given the trainers excellent record here.  

Arabian Queen, winner of Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, wasn't quite suited by the step up to 7f subsequently, and will be better now down to six again. She is a very good filly in her own right, if she has quite the speed on quick ground against this top class opposition remains to be seen though. Lightly raced Oasis Dream filly Tendu was a runaway winner at Kempton earlier this month. It's quite a dramatic step up in class today, but she is open to improvement and we will be able to judge her much better after this race. David Simcock's Terror won a Warwick maiden by an impressive 10 lengths on debut. She doesn't have a flashy pedigree, but deserves her chance. Zuhoor Baynoona finished a decent third in Listed company last time out, following up on a good maiden success. She steps up to 6f for the first time, and that has to make a big difference, to see her competitive today. 

Verdict: Tiggy Wiggy is the class act in this field, but drifting in the market, and there are reasons for it. Quick ground, stiff track, long season - she has to be at her absolute best today to win. And while she is such an exciting filly, it might be worth to take her on with the French filly High Celebrity. Andre Fabre doesn't bring runners over to Newmarket if he doesn't think they can and his record speaks for itself. The filly is lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement. She looks the value against the hot favourite. For backers of long-shots, it might be interesting to get some quid on Arabian Queen. She'll be better down in trip, has won a Group 2 already and is a huge price. 

High Celebrity @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Arabian Queen @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win

PREVIEW: Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)

14.35 Newmarket: Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)

Elm Park: Won maiden in impressive style and followed up with Listed success over 1m from the front - good form, beating horses placed in Group level. Bred for middle distance and will get further in time. Testing finish should suit today, quick ground slight concern, may be found out for speed.

Lord Ben Stack: Extremely impressive maiden winner, overcame wide draw and early keenness, made all. Lengthened in eye-catching style, looks smart and big, scopy colt. Bred for middle-distance, quick ground unknown. 

Medrano: Won maiden over 7f at third attempt, when up with the pace (beat LBS). Tried to make all in Listed race over 1m lto, got tired in the end, finished well beaten runner-up. Probably did too much in front. Bred to get much further.

Misterioso: Won maiden really nicely on second time asking, following eye-catching debut. Travelled strongly, put race to bed in closing stages. Decent form. Bred for mile and quick ground fine. Looks to have plenty of scope.

Nafaqa: Won Listed race over 7f lto, stand out piece of form, beating subsequent Group 2 winner. Smart, was able to be competitive in Listed race on debut at Royal Ascot. Step up in trip perfectly fine on pedigree. The horse to beat.

Salateen: Won nicely lto after fading in Group 3 before. Form with Medrano and LBS. Step up in trip might not entirely suit, even though loads of stamina on dam side. 

Verdict: Extremely deep and competitive race. All runners have class and showed good recent form. Interesting to see how it tactically plays out as most runners have been up with the pace, if not even making all in their last starts. Favourite Nafaqa seems one who don't need to be close to the speed and his recent Listed success at Doncaster is potentially the strongest piece of form, since the runner-up won subsequently on Group 2 level. He was badly hanging in the closing stages either. Upped in trip should be fine on pedigree. However he's short enough in the betting and no certainty since others make appeal on form and prices too. Richard Hannon's Misterioso was eye-catching on debut when ridden way too far off the pace and as a result he didn't get a clear run but stayed on nicely while travelling strongly for long time. A no-nonsense ride in his second start from the front, and he travelled super strongly on the bridle again, until putting the race to bed under hands and heels. Form looks decent and he can improve further. More so, he is bred to be a miler on fast ground. Elm Park was impressive in his latest too, winning on Listed level, but the ground might be against him and I fear he could be found out for speed. Almost similar worries are over Lord Ben Stack, but he is double the price of Elm Park. He didn't have an easy race on debut over 7f, when fourth behind Medrano and Salateen, however upped in trip, he made no mistake and put in a bold show despite a wide draw and showing keenes early on. Form is decent and he looks a big, scopy colt, who has more to offer. Salateen and Medrano have decent form to offer themselves. My perception is, they might just be a bit short of class against this opposition today.

Misterioso @ 10/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

Lord Ben stack @ 9/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

PREVIEW: Mawatheeq Godolphin Stakes (Listed)

15.45 Newmarket: Mawatheeq Godolphin Stakes (Listed) - Flying The Flag: Second start for new connections, classy bred and good comeback run. Step up to 12f question mark, has to prove stamina.

Harris Tweed: Disappointing all three starts this year, usually best on soft, so drying ground another worry. Hard to fancy on current form.

Magic Hurricane: Improving handicapper, not too much mileage on the clock. Not so good last two times but step up to 12f should help. Best form on soft ground, remains to be seen if rather quick ground does suit: Needs to take another step forward to feature.

Nabucco: Cosistent and ran well this year in Listed races over 10f. Best form over 10f with cut in the ground, trip is a question mark and not entirely likely to suit on pedigree, yet if it could bring out further improvement, in with a chance. 

Penglai Pavilion: Progressive 3yo in France, Listed winner over 12f on heavy ground. Didn’t fire at Meydan and poor in two starts in the UK this year. If back to best, obvious chance, but hard to fancy on recent form.

Ayrad: Lightly raced and good 2nd at Epsom recently. Nicely bred and step up in trip interesting as looks possible on pedigree and could bring out the bit improvement to see him up to winning on this level. Drying ground slight concern.

Red Galileo: Return to form with close recent runner-up effort in a Conditions race at Doncaster. Found out for class in pattern class before, but fifth in Derby behind Australia good form potentially. Back up in trip which should very much suit. 

Windshear: Sets the standard on form. Strong 4th in Leger, four times runner-up in Group class and hot Handicaps before. However seems to find it hard to win.

Verdict: The outcome of this race should evolve around the three year old horses in this field. Their older rivals have major question marks to defy in most cases, and that gives the classic generation a big chance with the WFO allowance. Favourite Windshear sets the clear standard with his strong performances on Group level and his recent fourth in the St Leger. It’s a massive drop in Grade. However may he forgot how to win? That’s a worry and he’s to take on at short odds. The other two three year old contenders make allot appeal as big priced alternatives. Ayrad has yet to show that he is a pattern class horse, but he is very lightly raced and his recent return to form is encouraging and the step up in trip may suit him to improve the bit to be a very big runner today. Red Galileo was a creditable fifth in this years Derby and looked much improved in his most recent outing. Up in trip again should really suit and he’s my first choice to land the spoils today.

Red Galileo @ 7/1 Bet365 – 2pts win

Ayrad @ 12/1 Bet365 – 1pt win

Quick Tip - Thursday 25th September 2014

20.45 Kempton: She's Gorgeous @ 9/1 Sportinglife - 2pts win

Extremely competitive Handicap with many useful sorts. However the selection strikes as a very interesting runner with the three year WFA allowance. She won a decent maiden in taking style in first time visor on first AW start lto, when dropped back in trip. That was a very fine performance and she looks bound to improve further. As the bottom weight in this field, I feel she might be underestimated off her current mark of 72.

PREVIEW: 8.20 Kempton, Wednesday 24th September

20.20 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 12f - Double Discount: Solid recent form, usually competitive and consistent. Step up in trip needs to bring out improvement in order to win of current mark. Not certain to stay trip. Weakened in closing stages when tried once.

Cousin Khee: Won well in August over 14f, fine third down in trip at Wolverhampton lto, Up another couple of pounds, career highest required, trip potentially bit too sharp, good pace needed.

Bushel: Over hurdles this season, best performance most recent one in June. Little break since then. Progressive over the flat last year, won 12f Handicap at Ripon and strong 2^nd in Ascot Handicap. Record over this trip indicates he’ll be well suited by todays trip if fit and okay on AW, which should be perfectly fine on strong US pedigree. Blinkered 1^st time.

Modernism: Poor performing since May. Well beaten in all his last starts. Comes down to handy mark now,  below last winning mark. Record indicates that he doesn’t stay 12f.

Soul Intent: Improving sort. Won well at Epsom back in July. Up in class and mark but good AW record may improve again as revised mark not harsh.

Art Scholar: Won of much higher marks in the past and down to a low rating now, but recent performances not indicating that he is up to winning at the moment. 

Asia Minor: Progressive All-Weather performer. Not too much mileage on clock for 5yo and not impossible to have still more on the plate. Found out for class when seen in very hot class 2 Handicap in April.

Verdict: Very open looking race with plenty of valid contenders. Favourite Soul Intent could easily turn out to have still a couple of pounds in hand, but so could be the equally progressive Asia Minor and Bushel. The later one switches back to the flat after it didn't really work over hurdles for him. But he was very promising as three year old last season and ran big off one pound higher in a hot handicap last summer. With the perfect pedigree for the All-Weather, he looks a big price. Interesting is the filly Asia Minor too. She has a strong record on the All-Weather and can run big down in class against more appropriate opposition than when finishing down the field in much higher grade when last seen. 

Bushel @ 10/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win

Asia Minor @ 15/2 VC - 1pt win

NAP Of The Day - Tuesday 23rd September 2014

15.15 Newcastle: Class 4 Handicap, 12f

Hesketh Bank: Lightly raced and might have still bit left. Excuses for latest poor showing. Won good race before. However mark seems high enough at the moment.

Intense Tango: Good performance over further in hot handicap. Won before over 12f a similar race. Further up in the mark but can still improve. Trip and ground fine.

Clear Spell: Showed fine form in recent weeks. Won at Hamilton over 11f and placed twice subsequently. Not sure additional furlong will suit.

Ryeolliean: Up in trip and down in mark. Not impossible to show more under those conditions today but not entirely sure to stay the trip.

Chivers: Stays trip and beyond. Won two races this year. Drying ground over this trip and high enough mark could make life tough.

Tactical Strike: Best performance came on handicap debut, hasn’t shown much in five starts otherwise. Hard to fancy on form.

Verdict: I can only see Intense Tango and Hesketh Bank really good enough to win this, on form at least. With those rather unexposed three year olds you never quite know what you get but it is hard to see any of the others emerging as a potent winning candidate based on form and race conditions. Intense Tango is a pretty short favourite and there is clear evidence in the form book why. But I feel Hesketh Bank offers equally strong form. His Musselburgh success is the best form in the field, and while he is much higher in the mark now, it is not impossible that he can progress again. His latest effort at Ascot is excusable when nothing went for him and he raced awkwardly. If he can leave that performance behind, he should go really close today.

Hesketh Bank @ 5/1 Betfred

-NR-

Quick Tip - Monday 22nd September 2014

17.40 Kempton: Tides Reach @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Competitive race and the horses towards the head of the market are all very solid contenders, but they are not unbeatable and there are a couple of bigger prices in the field that could be interesting if you forgive them the odd poor run. Most interesting price wise is Tides Reach for me. If you forgive her her most recent abysmal performance, you can see a rather consistent and progressive animal, thriving on the AW/quick ground. The run at Ffos Las came on bottomless ground, so it's easy to see a reason why she didn't perform that day. She wasn't far beaten in a small field at Windsor before following an impressive win in another small field. She won at Kempton last year over 7f but one mile isn't an issue, and now back here on this surface on only her second start, she is an interesting runner. With James Doyle in the saddle she also has the best possible assistance today, and for all of that she looks to have a better chance than her big price suggests.