NAP Of The Day: Wednesday 13th August 2014

20.20 Kempton - Class 4 Nursery: Intriguing Juvenile contest and it's easy to make a case for most of the runners. The favourite looks solid enough under a penalty but is short enough and ready to be taken on. Top weight Speedy Move looked good winning a maiden at Leicester last time out and should improve for the step up in trip. The merit of that form is questionable though and his mark stiff enough at this point. Rotherwick did well in maidens and should be better now in handicaps. If he is up to his opening mark remains to be seen. Strong sire but the dam side is less appealing. If Spindle can transform her Southwell maiden winning form to conventional polytrack, she is in with a chance. Classic Seniority won a maiden over 6f, the step up in trip is sure to suit on pedigree, given that his dam side is stamina ladden, without posing too much quality. Opening mark looks fair. Maiden Foylesideview didn't show much in three starts yet and is hard to fancy in this contest.

Western Playboy makes appeal on his low mark with a promising 5lb claimer in the saddle on the back of a very good performance at Lingfield. He didn't have the speed at a crucial point of the race, when the eventual winner got first run and accelerated impressively coming around the home bend, but Western Playboy stayed on extremely well in a tight defeat eventually. The step up in trip is sure to suit on pedigree and he seems a rather unreasonable big price here.

Western Playboy @ 11/1 VC - 2pts win

NAP of the day - Tuesday 12th August 2014

NAP - 18.35 Lingfield: Arctic Lynx @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win

On his All-Weather form Arctic Lynx appears to be quite well handicapped today. He ran out a strong 2nd place on his last AW start back in May in better class off a 5lb higher mark, he's also two pounds below his last winning mark at the moment. He didn't quite fire on turf in his last four starts, but a return to Lingfield's polytrack should surely help to see him in better light. 

This is quite a competitive race toda but with Lingfield specialist Geore Baker in the saddle, he rates a big chance today. Baker poses an impressive 20% strike rate here (43.33% combined win/place!) in 2014, while trainer has been also extremely successful at this venue in the same time period. So all set for a big run, if Artic Lynx can bounce back from his poor turf showings, which I duly expected at a course and trip that suits him to bits. Two successes in addition to two runner-up efforts over CD - that makes him an outstanding bet at 11/2 in my book.

Quick Selections - Monday 11th August 2014

We haven't been really successful with our selections in the last couple of days, or better to say, weeks! Another rather disappointing day yesterday at the Curragh, with none of our three selections getting even close winning it. It was one of those low times, after we hit it big last month. For a bit of change I'll be concentrating on the All-Weather today...

15.45 Wolverhampton: Shahrazad @ 6/1 Boylesports

New surface at Wolverhampton today - interesting to see how it goes. It should be a huge change to what was in the last couple of month before the relay, in terms of kickback. However AW surfaces in general tend to favour horses ridden up or close to the pace in my mind, and that won't change with Tapeta. Intriguing enough, there is loads of pace in this race today and I would imagine you might have to stay bit further than the 7f to be in with a chance. The lightly raced favourite Malyana makes plenty of appeal on the weights, and form she showed during the winter month. If she is fit after a break, she'll be in with a big shout. However she is quite a short price and fitness has to be taken on trust, so I rather like to go with proven class here. My selection Shahrazad goes well on the All-Weather and has winning form from 7-10f. She is best when up with the pace, which she wasn't in her most recent starts. I expect a change of tactics today, back to front-running style or something very much up with the pace. The fact that she stays further than the 7f trip counts as a bonus and only 1lb above her last winning mark, she makes appeal. Even more so with De Sousa booked for the ride. Trainer and jockey had only two rides together last year - both successful! So I imagine if this top class jockey is booked today, then there is a big run expected. 

16.45 Wolverhampton: Orion's Boy @ 4/1 Boylesports - 3pts win

Crowdmania might have the run of the race from the front in a race with not too much pace in it, a return to the All-Weather will help him too and that makes him certainly an interesting runner. However he has hardly any secrets left after 19 starts and the trip will stretch him on pedigree, with a mile probably the maximum he should get. So for that reason I oppose him. Lightly raced Fajry makes appeal on the new trip, but the mark is stiff enough, John Gosden's 3yo colt Orion's Boy makes plenty of appeal though. Also still quite lightly raced, he should relish the step up in trip as well. He won really well at Lingfield last time out, when he appeared to be on a couple of occasions outpaced over 7f and he needed a while to hit top gear, but when he did, he was always going to win. The new mark seems reasonable and it is not impossible that he can be still a good deal better than that over the new trip in particular. Slight worry is that he's probably held up, but this a risk I'm prepared to take since I feel this horse is well handicapped.

Quick selections: Sunday 10th August 2014

16.35 Curragh - Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group 3): Maarek is the big favourite here and it is easy to see why. He has the right form in the book and will love any drop of rain in the ground. He remains as good as ever, won the Group 2 Duke of York earlier this year and finished a fine runner-up behind Slade Power over CD here at the Curragh back in May. Saying that, he is not unbeatable and he was less than two lengths in front of An Saighdiur that day, who in contrast to Maarek, made all that day and might used a bit too much energy early on. A 4lb swing in the weights gives him a chance to get a bit closer again today as he loves the mud, so any bit of rain is appreciated, and back over 6f is a plus, as 5f lto seemed bit too short, and he was badly hampered in the closing stages, to beaten in last that day has to be seen in the right context. Not many more with realistic chances here with trip or ground not to suit all of the other five runners in the field.

An Saighdiur @ 8/1 VC - 2pts win

17.05 Curragh - 1m Handicap: Competitive looking race, with a strong favourite. Shalamzar was a shade unlucky at Galway recently, when he didn't quite get a clear passage in the closing stages but still manged to finish a strong 3rd. If he can follow up with a similar strong performance today, he's in with a very obvious chance. Gone Viral as the only 3yo has to be taken serious. He looked improved at Gowran Park when he landed a 7f Handicap, follow up with a good performance in his next start, now against older horses, he needs to improve but the weight allowance can help. Beau Satchel is on a four-timer. His progress might not be over yet, but a new career highest mark has to be defied. I do really like the chance of Jayed Jidan at around 11/1. Still lightly raced, he was a good winner of a big Curragh Handicap last year. His seasonal reapperance in a sprint Handicap wasn't to suit, but he was better in a very competitive Handicap over CD here in June. If he can improve from that performance a bit, he'll be in with a big chance today I feel. 

Jayed Jidan @ 11/1 - 1pt win VC

PREVIEW: Phoenix Stakes (Group 1)

16.05 Curragh - Phoenix Stakes (Group 1): Cracking renewal in my mind. A very deep nine-runners line-up with plenty of strong Group form on offer. The ground makes this contest a bit more intriguing as it naturally already is. We have yielding ground as it is officially described, after a good deal of rain last night - if I look out of my window, I see grey, dark rain clouds, so potentially a bit more is to come. That must count against fast ground horses and anyone who is doubtful to fully get the trip, as the Curragh is such a stiff and demanding track, particularly in the last couple of hundred yards, that the ground can only add to the emphasis on the fact that you need to get 6 furlongs without a question, otherwise you're doomed. 

Anthem Alexander is the favourite and has done little wrong in her short career. Her success in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot is extremely strong form. The runner-up established herself subsequently as a hugely exciting prospect, while the sixth won a Group 2 subsequently, as well as plenty of others done well since Ascot. Stepping up in trip to 6f shouldn't pose a problem on pedigree. Ground could be a bit of a question mark as there is an awful lot of fast ground form in her pedigree and she didn't do too well on her sole start on anything worse than good, even though that was on debut and the winner of that race a subsequent Group performer. On balance, I feel Anthem Alexander is too short in the betting in this strong field. She may well turn out to be good enough, but it can't be said with full confidence in these conditions. But full confidence would be required, considering her short price tag. 

Richard Hannon's Kool Kompany is the most experienced horse in this field, as well as top rated. And he has probably the strongest form to offer, on balance. Since he won a Listed race at Naas, he really improved dramatically. A poor ride at Ascot cost him the race there, but he made amends winning the Group 2 Railway Stakes here at the Curragh and subsequently a Group 2 in France. He gets the trip alright, ground shouldn't be an issue - he must rate a big chance today. Question mark is: Can he improve again to land a Group 1 now or might there be something in the field that could be able to improve past him? We'll find out.

Beach Belle is a very interesting runner. She won the very first race of the new Irish flat season back in March this year, and while she looked good that day, she looked even better in her second outing as she followed up with a cracking performance in a Listed 6f sprint at Naas in June. The fifth of that race finished a strong 3rd at Royal ascot behind Anthem Alexander subsequently. Beach Belle produced a nice little turn of foot in that Naas race and Chris Hayes didn't need to be hard on her in order to see her winning with authority. She is bred to get further, which should play into her hands in this contest on the demanding Curragh straight, and she clearly gets the ground. The more rain, the better for her. Naturally there is more improvement expected - even though she has to progress further of course, to be competitive today. 

Cappella Sanservo was a fine runner-up in the Coventry Stakes. His trainer acknowledged that he turned out the colt too soon subsequently when Cappella ran flat in the Railway Stakes. He won a Listed contest at the Curragh before though and should be expected to bounce back today. Ground and trip will be fine, if he is quite good enough is another question. He beat Dick Whittington earlier this season in a close encounter. The O'Brien horse is clearly very talented himself, and won a Group 3 over course and distance last month. While he has form on similar ground as it is today, he might be seen at his best on a fast surface. He also might be found out for speed against pacier sorts over the 6f trip today. Recent Group 3 winner I Am Beautiful takes a step up in class and might not be speedy enough too. She appears to be Aiden O'Brien's third string and while the price looks tasty, it's hard to see her good enough in these conditions. The Great War looked exciting when he won a 5f race here at the Curragh back in May. Since then he was disappointing in two subsequent starts. More or less the same applies to The War Envoy, who has been beaten two times by Kool Kompany this year already, and it is hard to see him reversing this form anytime soon. Johnny Murthag's maiden Kasbah shouldn't be good enough. 

Verdict: Kool Kompany seems the logical choice with the right form in the book. He is a rock solid chance. He'll run his race and anyone that beats him will win is my suggestion. I'm not entirely convinced by hist short price and think there might be something in this field that could have the ability to improve past him. Beach Belle could be this horse. She is lightly raced and progressed nicely from her maiden success. Conditions are in her favour and she has course form to offer. She has a nice pedigree, and despite a good deal of stamina on her dam side, she seems to have an awful lot of speed too. My only fear is that Jamie Spencer is on board and not regular rider Chris Hayes, since the filly has been sold. However if she is able to improve further, than her current price looks certainly a very big one. 

Beach Belle @ 6/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win

Quick selections: Saturday 9th August 2014

15.25 Haydock - Dick Hern Fillies' Stakes (Listed): Intriguing 1m contest. Clear favourite Lightning Thunder will be hard to beat if she can find back to her strong form that saw her finish runner-up in the 1.000 Guineas. Recent poor run is a worry though. 20/1 shot Manderley makes bit appeal back over this trip. Disappointing last twice, which is a worry. But won a maiden before in decent style. form through the runner-up doesn't look to shabby, and ran huge race in 1.000 Guineas when making all and just tiring late to finish 4th. That form would give her a major chance in this race, if she could run to it again. There are plenty of question marks about the form of most of the other runners. That says many are with a chance here, but without making too much appeal. --- Manderley @ 20/1 VC - 1pt e/w

17.05 Haydock - Class 2 Handicap: Excellent & competitive Handicap, with two promising horses towards the top of the market. Double Bluff however has to defy a very big weight, while Satellite should surly improve for the trip, but doesn't look entirely straight forward and is a risk at short odds. Recent maiden winner Gwafa couldn't have been more impressive, winning by 19! lengths. They went a quick pace that day and all rivals faded away or were eased down eventually, but still the way he travelled was stunning. Third of that race won subsequently a maiden by 4 lengths. Has to prove himself in Handicaps now, but the opening mark looks reasonable and with much less weight to shoulder, he is the value in this race. --- Gwafa @ 5/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

PREVIEW - Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3)

14.55 Haydock - Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) - 12 furlongs: Considering that this is only a Group 3, one has to say it is an excellent renewal of the race. A deep eight runner field, with proven Group horses in the line-up - that is good to see as it is not always the case with these kind of races, as we know all too well. Favourite Hillstar is a worthy favourite on form. He couldn't win a single race this season yet, but his last three performances are all strong form. Close runner-up behind Cavalryman at Newmarket in the Princess of Wales's rates a big performance. My slight worry with him is though, that the drop in trip is not really in his favour. I feel he lacks the speed over the shorter distance and that 12f is probably his optimum. Class can see him through but he certainly need this to be a real stamina test. Yes, he has won over 7f as a juvenile, but all his best form comes over way further, and over 10f he hasn't won in five starts to date. 

True Story was one of the Derby fancies after winning the Listed Feilden Stakes in April. He couldn't fulfill the promise in all his subsequent starts and it is hard to say what we can expect from him today. If he can find back to his early season form, then he is in with a chance of course, even more so as the drop in class should be a big help. I find him hard to fancy on recent form. 

His stable mate Vancouverite makes more appeal. He was an excellent 3yo, with the highlights of last seasons campaign a success in the Group 2 Guillaume D'Ornano Stakes at Deauville. He clearly isn't regressing now a four year old. His form in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan earlier this year, is a very strong one. He finished a strongly staying on 2nd behind Vercingetorix, who subsequently boosted the form with strong performances in top class company. Vancouverite didn't like the Tapeta surface in the Dubai World Cup, but his UK comeback at Newbury recently showed that he is one to take very seriously today. Back after a break, he travelled like the winner for most parts of the race, however not getting quite the clearest of runs, until in the clear from 2f out, when he made then strong progress. He just failed to peg back the eventual winner, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him coming on a good bit from that run, and being able to turn the form around with Amralah. 

Amralah himself is progressive and not to underestimate. He surly will be seen up on front and if he would get a soft lead, he could be well able to exploit that. He will have to improve a bit though, to be really seen as a major contender here. If he is classy enough to do so, remains to be seen. Educate is an interesting runner. So progressive last season, which culminated in success in the Cambridgeshire, he proved subsequently that he is a pattern class horse. Decent performances at Meydan on Group level and two okay performances back in the UK, left the impression that there could be still a bit more to come. He had a tough assignment in his recent Handicap start, so he might have a better chance to go well in this Group 3 today. However it has to be seen if he is quite up to the task to win this. I give him the benefit of the doubt, and would like to think a good run is on the cards, without having the urge to back him today. 

Nabucco is a likable sort. Reliable and with good form. He finished a fine third behind Amralah at Newbury recently. I feel he'd be more interesting and in with a better chance with a bit more rain. Danadana has Group winning form, so can't be discounted, however recent form doesn't suggest that today is be an easy task. Three year old Ayrad will be seen to better affect dropping in class, but has still an awful lot to find to be competitive in this strong Group 3. 

Verdict: There are some doubts about the main contenders in the betting, which brings Amralah in with a decent chance to run a big race, following his strong recent success. However I fancy Vancouverite to turn the form around. He was a shade unlucky that day, being beaten by a short margin and It wouldn't be a surprise to see him improving from that run. Ground and trip are fine for him, he has strong form in his book and seems a rather big price, taking all into consideration.

Vancouverite @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

NAP Of The Day - Thursday 7th of August 2014

16.20 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 10f - From a handicapping point of view this race should evolve around the two three year olds. The short favourite Ejadah seems progressive and won extremely well at Haydock last month. She is subsequently nine pounds up for that performance but this might not be the end for her. 

However she has to be taken on trust to stay the 10f trip at a track like Brighton where you definitely need to stay to be able to survive the final furlong up the hill. Ejadah has won only over 1m so far, and didn't seem to get quite home in her sole 10f start. Her pedigree also isn't too supportive in that sense. Another question mark is the ground. Her best performances came with cut in the ground. Can she transform her best to the quick surface that she is likely to encounter today? 

The other three year old in the line-up, Sequined, makes plenty of appeal. She was a good deal beaten in her most recent outing at Newmarket over 1m in 3rd, but she stayed on well. The step up to 10f will definitely suit, as she has won at Lingfield over this trip before, and her pedigree is clearly pointing in this direction. She is in fact nicely bred, sired by a Dubai World Cup winner, out of an Irish Oaks runner-up. So the trip should be fine, the quick ground not an issue and with only four starts to her name to date, on her second turf start, there is plenty more to come. With the weight for age allowance, Sequined must have a big chance to win in this field.

From the older horses, Yojojo makes a bit of appeal of her reduced mark. She goes well at Brighton, but has still to give allot of weight away to her younger rivals. Who's That Chick can make use of her featherweight and is in excellent form lately, while Taro Tywod is hard to fancy. 

Verdict: Sequined has an excellent opportunity to take her young career to the next level. Conditions are sure to suit and the weights are in her favour. She is a nice price considering to have so much going for herself and I feel she should be at the top of the market. 

Sequined @ 5/2 Betfred - 4pts win

PREVIEW - Ballyroan Stakes (Group 3)

19.30 Leopardstown: Ballyroan Stakes G3, 12f - Some good racing action over in Ireland today. The feature at Dublin's Leopardstown racetrack is a Group 3 over 1m 4f. Ground conditions are described as yielding, soft in places at the moment, but with warm weather and loads of sun, the ground is expected to dry out further.

Five runners are declared for this event, and current favourite is the Aiden O'Brien trained Eye Of The Storm. Trading at around 7/4 this morning, one has to wonder if this four year colt would be as short in the betting as he currently is, if he wouldn't be trained by Ireland's leading trainer. He wouldn't, is the simple answer.

A very fine three year old, who seemed to develop into a high class stayer, Eye Of The Storm couldn't confirm the promise in three starts this year. While there have been some excuses along the line, and it has to be stated that EOTS is surely a capable horse, but far from a top class animal. Also with the ground drying out, I wonder if the conditions are really to suit him. His best performance to date came clearly in the Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day over two miles. All that says, he is a difficult sort to know what to expect today and therefore he is easy to oppose for me on the basis of a way to short price. 

Money is coming for the John Oxx runner Streetcar To Stars, and it is easy to see why. This son of Sea The Stars is lightly raced and progressive, with an impressive physique and look. He looks, big strong with plenty of scope. He was unlucky in the Listed King George V Cup in June here at Leopardstown, which was only his second start, as well as the first one after more than 200 days off the track, and his first try over 12f. He didn't have an easy race that day. He fought with his jockey throughout the first half of the race, got then got stuck in traffic from 3f out when turning for home. He didn't get a run until late as he was short of room on the inside until almost the final furlong marker. He finished strongly though and almost got up on the line. STS made amends in a Curragh maiden, back over 10f then. He made all, was hard challenged from 2f out but drew clear in the closing stages, indicating stamina is his strengths. Up over 12f today then, he clearly gets the trip, has course distance form on similar ground, and is sure to improve further. He needs to learn to settle, but with more experience, that will come and he for all of that he is the most interesting runner in this field.

Chance to Chance is a progressive handicapper in care of Jim Bolger. A four time winner this year already, he can be competitive over a variety of trips and is versatile if it comes to ground conditions too. He finished third in a conditions race at Naas recently, but the trip was a bit on the short side that day and today will suit him better. If he is quite up to this class is another question, but with the right form in the book, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him right there when it matters. Aiden O'Brien's second string El Salvador is a consistent sort too, but might be just below what is required in a Group 3 and he is hard to fancy for the win. 

The only filly in the race, Roheryn progressed nicely this year when switched to the turf. She won the Leopardstown Listed race that was mentioned earlier, when Streetcar To Stars was agonisingly denied in a tight finish. Roheryn had undeniably the run of the race that day but she also demonstrated that is equipped with guts as well as talent as she quickened nicely coming around the home bend, put a bit of ground between her and the rest of the field and then held on gamely in the closing stages. There is no reason why she shouldn't be able to improve further, and that gives her a very fair shot in this race.

Verdict: The short O'Brien favourite has to be opposed as the 5/2 for Streetcar To Stars look good value. He should be the favourite according to what he showed so far in his short career and with further improvement expected. He'll be hard to beat and might have just the bit more scope than Roheryn, who did beat him two months ago over course and distance. However the filly has to be taken serious too with conditions to suit. Her price tag looks generous too. 

Streetcar To Stars @ 5/2 Coral - 4pts win

Roheryn @ 8/1 Boylesports - 2pts win

Betting Selections - Sunday 3rd of August 2014

15.05 Chester - Queensferry Stakes (Listed): The field decimated through the going change and now down to seven runners, seems quite an open race. Favourite Ertijaal looked promising as a juvenile and when he returned racing in spring this year with two impressive performances on the all-Weather. He didn't get the trip in the 2.000 Guineas and probably did too much too early in the Bunbury Cup at Newbury. He remains an interesting prospect and the drop in trip might help him to settle. Despite his decent recent performance on similar ground, I'm not convinced that he can show his best with cut in the ground, so the rain must count against him, even though the track will probably very much suit. On all that evidence I need to oppose him at his quite short price tag. Dinkum Diamond is ground independent an won a Listed race over 6f in soft conditions last season. He ran with credit in the Group 3 Coral Charge the last time and the drop in class will help him. I still believe the shorter 5f is more ideal for him, but on form he must have a fine chance here. However what counts against him is the weight. He gives it away all around and that doesn't make it an easy task. Ballista goes well at Chester but prefers a quicker surface ideally, there is also no too much in his form that suggests that is he is quite up to this standard required to win this at the moment. 

The only remaining filly in the race, Body And Soul makes more appeal. She was too keen in a Group 3 at Newcastle last time out, but ran with loads of credit in her two outings in hot class 2 Handicaps before. She is ground independent, but her best performance to date came in Listed company over 6f in soft conditions. That says this test today should suit, so should the sharp track. 

Bommerang Bob is a consistent sort, but his winning record is poor. The conditions of this particular race today quite suit though, and another good run is likely. If that is enough to prevail is another question. Intransigent is better on the All-weather and this test here seems unlikely to suit him. Three year old Coulsty is a Listed winner, however over 7f on quick ground. It remains to be seen if he can show his best over shorter at this sharp track with underfoot conditions. 

Verdict: Hard to predict what happens. Ertijaal has the class if he can show his best over the shorter trip with cut in the ground, but the value seems proven filly Body And Soul. She is a Listed winner over this trip and ground and the track could suit perfectly. She must have a big chance and seems a big price. --- Body And Soul @ 13/2 William Hill - 3pts win

16.45 Chester - Class 4 Handicap: Another small field but also a very competitive little Handicap. Head of the market is English Summer, who is in excellent form lately and loves this track. He won back in June over course and distance in similar ground conditions and was not beaten far over bit further recently at Haydock. He has an obvious chance and might be able to pull out a bit more. His mark off 80 doesn't make it an easy task, nonetheless he is capable of running very much to this rating of course. 

The only three year old in the race, Notarised is another who is in with a big chance. He likes to lead and ran with credit in his recent starts. This sharp track can suit, even though he still has to prove that he really can stay thus far. On the weights he is an obvious chance if he can hit the mark off his current mark over this trip. Cool Sky returns to the level for a new yard. New trainer Ian Williams has his string in fine form and ha a 20% strike rate at this track in the last twelve month, which makes the five year old gelding an interesting runner. He did well enough over obstacles and was a progressive horse on the flat before too. He won a couple of races on the All-Weather his last start on the flat last June was a successful one over 14f of a mark off 81. Potentially there is still a bit of improvement left and he could be a bit better than his current mark. The sharp track should suit and with loads of pace in the race, he might find ideal conditions today. Spanish Plume loves the track, but the ground is a major worry. Rio's Rosanna is difficult to assess on recent form, however if she is fit and well, she wouldn't be without a chance. 

Verdict: The two towards the head of the market have excellent chances, but further improvement is already reflected in their prices. Cool Sky in contrast could still be a bit better now back on the flat and with conditions in favour might explore his current mark. For all of that he seems too big in the betting market. --- Cool Sky @ 13/2 William Hill - 2pts win

16.25 Newbury - Class 4 Handicap: The rain has arrived at Newbury and has shaken up the field. Plenty of non-runners and not too many in the line-up who appear to be well suited to conditions or well handicapped. veteran Cheveton could be in with a decent shot on old form, as he loves the mud, is a distance specialist and won at this track before. However the lack of a recent run as well as the current mark are worrying factors. Favourite Random Success is still quite lightly raced and drops significantly in class. This is much more appropriate to what she has achieved in the past and her penultimate performance gives her a chance. However she hasn't a single form on soft ground, so she to be taken on trust to relish the conditions. 

Top weight Exceptionelle hasn't won on turf yet but has some good form in better races to her name. Hood is back and cheek-pieces on for the first time. If that can bring out some improvement, she can run well. Secret Missile and Steel Rain both have form on soft ground and can't be discounted with conditions to suit. Rebecca Romero was in good order in recent weeks and the drop in trip to 5f should see her competitive. Ground conditions should be fine, however a career best is required. Talented Cam Hardie in the saddle is worth every single pound of his 5lb claim and that will give Rebecca Romero a very fair chance to win off her current mark. Hardie and trainer Coackley have also formed a very fruitful partnership in recent weeks. So a good run is definitely on the cards. Veteran Ziggy ran well in the last number of weeks. A good placed effort at Nottingham and his runner-up effort at Windsor give him a good chance today. Three year old Stellarta isn't entirely out of this. She has to show a bit more though in this competitive company on ground she isn't completely sure to relish. 

Verdict: Competitive in its own way, it is hard to be too excited about any horse. Steel Rain appears to be a very big price and could run into the money, while a couple of others have the ability to feature strongly. Most appeal on price makes Rebecca Romero to me though. Despite a high mark, she has plenty going for her with conditions in favour and a top apprentice on board. This is a race that could see her run to a career best. --- Rebecca Romero @ 7/1 William Hill - 2pts win

Betting Preview - Whitney Handicap (Grade 1)

Win and your're in! That's the motto of the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga tonight. The winner of the race is guaranteed to run in the Breeders Cup Classic. So it's no surprise to see a competitive line-up for a contest that pays almost $500k to the winner too! 

Red-hot favourite Palace Malice is expected to follow up on his four straight wins this year. He's the all dominating sort in this Classic division and despite top weight, should be tough to beat. He won the Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont with authority back in June on his most recent start, despite not having the clearest of runs in the closing stages. However he has to be at his best today in this field, that is for sure. He has all the right tools, but his short price tag doesn't appeal too much to me. 

Front-running Moreno is expected to lead the field around today. He has only won twice in 19 career starts, but the track should suit his running-style and he looked improved in his latest start. If he can find back to his fine 3yo form from last year, he can be a big runner. Money spinner Will Take Charge has banked over $3.7 million in his racing career, that says he is an ultra consistent sort. He was a close runner-up in last years Breeders Cup classic, has Grade 1 form to his name and won a Grade 2 as his sole success in 2014. He couldn't win in his last two starts and need to find back to his best though. Big weight doesn't make things an easy task, class is there though. Current price looks fair. Departing won on his seasonal reappearance in fine style and followed up with a good 3rd in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. He needs to find a bit more but further improvement is not impossible, and that makes him an interesting runner. 

Multiple Grade 3 winner Romansh was a very honorable third behind Palace Malice in the Metropolitan Handicap. He didn't stay 10f in his subsequent start, so the drop in trip should suit and a good run is one the cards and he has fair place claims. Surely winning claims must have Itsmyluckyday. He won three on the bounce and seemed clearly improved this year. A career best in his latest in the grade 3 Salvator Mile must give him a big chance to feature strongly today. He made an impressive move before the approach of the home bend and won on the bridle in emphatic fashion eventually. The second and third finishers in that race finished first and second in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup subsequently, so the form looks strong. He has to bring this form now into Grade 1 company, but with his progressive profile he might well turn out be the biggest danger to Palace Malice. 

Last Gunfire is the mount of Javier Catellano and must enter considerations if he can bring his A-game to the table. Disappointing in his latest, but he made an excellent winning seasonal comeback before, and won the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup last year. Pace might be an issue, but he might be staying on for a place. It's hard to make a case for veteran prayer For Relief and Golden Ticket. 

Verdict: Favourite Palace Malice is holding the key to the outcome of the race. If he gets a clear run and runs to his best form, he'll be very hard to beat. But we know that racing doesn't always work that way. So looking for a bit of value, there are some alternatives. Last Gunfire or Moreno seem to be decent each-way material, while Romansh and Departing aren't entirely out of this either with place claims to their name too. The 14/1 for Itsmyluckyday appear to be outstanding value though and he gets the nod from me. His recent form is excellent, he seems still progressing, and should be tactically in a good position to too far off the pace at a track that favours the speed often. It's hard to see him out off the first three and he could be the one who gives Palace Malice a run for the money. --- Itsmyluckyday @ 14/1 VC - 1pt e/w

Nassau Stakes - Race Preview

This years renewal of the Nassau Stakes is far from vintage, considering that this is one of the biggest Group 1's for fillies in the English racing calendar. It's a shame that only seven runners go to post. A race prestigious as this, deserves better. So do punters. Seven starters hardly encourage betting, as it isn't really feasible  to have an each-way bet. Also the quality of horse is a shade disappointing this year, given that there is not a single Group one winner in the line-up.

The question is why is that? Ground is nice - safe fast ground. It's a beautiful track, on a prestigious race day of Glorious Goodwood. Well, we all know the answer: There is too much racing, in particular there are too many Group 1 races in Europe, which means connections can duck away from challenges and simply go next week somewhere else for an "easy" race. It's sad. Group ones should be the pinnacle of the racing calender, each one with the prestige of a Champions League final. But if you have too many of them, they become a race like so many others. It's nothing special anymore to win a Group 1. Something has to be done about this fact - but that is for another day. 

I feel there is no outstanding filly in the race, which opens it for an outsider to feature strongly. Aiden O'Brien's Venus de Milo is a rock solid favourite nonetheless. The four year old has a couple of nice performances to her name. She returned to form in the Munster Oaks at Cork earlier this year, a Group 3 on quick ground over 12 furlongs. She followed up with another strong performance in the Pretty Polly Stakes (10f), when she finished an honorable runner-up behind Thistle Bird. However she was also beaten fair and square, and the feeling is, that she is better over 12f and is vulnerable over the shorter trip. I expect her to be up with the pace, to ensure it'll be a stamina test. Venus de Milo must have a good chance to win this, but I think she is priced up as fair as it gets. 

French raider Narniyn has very strong form to offer. A multiple Group winner over 10f, she finished a creditable fourth in the Grand Prix Saint Cloud recently. All her form comes on soft ground though, so it's unknown how she'll cope with the much quicker conditions today. She'll be a big runner if she can bring her A-game to the table in these conditions. Mango Diva was a good winner of the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes at the Curragh two weeks ago, which was a below par renewal in my mind, though. She likes the ground and the trip is perfect, so should go well. Hard to see any value in her price however, which also applies to Narniyn. Lightly raced Sultanina drops in trip and tackles quick ground for the first time. That might well be the game changer for her, yet it's hard to be too enthusiastic about it. Amazing Maria was a good and progressive juvenile. She won a Group 3 over 7f, and was thrown into deep water right into the Epsom Oaks on her three year old comeback run. With stamina doubts over her head, she finished last out of 17 that day. The drop in trip should help but even ten furlongs isn't sure to suit. 

Lustrous was a big disappointment in the Irish Oaks. She couldn't confirm her strong run in the Ribblesdale Stakes, when she chased home Bracelet. She won won on Listed level over a mile before, so the drop to 10f from the Oaks trip shouldn't pose too much of a problem, however she looked like a stayer on her Ascot run as well as on pedigree. Recent poor run is a worry too. If she can find back to her Royal Ascot form, she has a chance to feature though and I wouldn't give up hope on her. But it's a risky proposition. 

John Gosden's second string Eastern Belle got finally off the mark at the fifth time asking in a Listed race at Newbury. She was a bit unlucky in a couple of races in the past, but at Newbury everything came finally together. She was very gutsy when ridden well up with the pace, under pressure from 3f out, she never surrendered and came clear inside the final furlong. That performance over 10f and good to firm ground must give her a chance here today. Obviously she needs to improve a good deal to make the step from a Listed winner to be competitive in a Group 1, but as outlined before, this race is far a vintage renewal and it's not impossible that Eatern Belle can find the improvement required to be a big runner. She probably will like to be right up with the pace, and Joe Fanning on board is the perfect pilot for that kind of task. 

Verdict: Venus De Milo seems a solid favourite, who has fine form in the book and could finally win a deserved Group 1. However, she is opposable over this trip. It looks anyone can win this race if on a good day, but the most value seems to lie in Eastern Belle in my mind. Potentially there is more improvement to come on her third start over 10f, with winning form on quick ground, she is not out of this. --- Eastern Belle @ 20/1 Bet365 - 1pt win