The Big Race Preview - 2014 King George

Saturdays King George is a race as exciting as it can get. While the status of the race has suffered a bit in the last couple of years in terms of status and importance in the racing calender, this years renewal clearly shapes as a real cracker - thanks to an ultra competitive line-up. One has only to see that we have two recent Royal Ascot winners, an Oaks winner, the current Eclipse winner, a Breeders Cup winner, a Grand Prix De Paris winner, an Irish Derby winner and a favourite who seems to finally fulfil his potential.

Yet I hear people saying this is not a vintage King George, because it lacks a "true champion". I couldn't agree less and feel it isn't fair towards the horses that are due to run on Saturday. Because: This race is full of champions! Okay, there is no Frankel or Sea The Stars in the line-up, but this years renewal must be still one of the most competitive ones in recent history! It is great to see that trainers and connections don't duck away from the challenge, as it happens so often in flat racing. This time we have keen connections though, who want to let the best compete against the best. It should be spectacular, and we should enjoy it.

Overview of the runners:

Flintshire, 12/1 - Winner of last years Grand Prix De Paris, subsequently slightly below par, finished 2nd in Prix Niel, no chance in Arc, did well when 2nd behind Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup at Epsom last month, but disappointing when beaten a short favourite in the Grand Prix Saint-Cloud three weeks ago. Ground is key for him, he'll relish the sound surface as his worst performances came all with cut in the ground. Perception is that he still has a bit to find in Group 1 level against very strong opposition.

Leitir Mor, 200/1 - Won a Group 3 at Leopardstown over 7f last year, since then often with pace maker duties equipped and therefore no chance in most races. Same fate likely here again.

Magician, 11/2 - Aiden O'Brien's sole starter was an exceptional three year old. Winner of the Dee Stakes, the Irish 2.000 Guineas and later the Breeders Cup Turf, piping The Fugue on the line. Since then in and out in 2014. Not good enough at Meydan, beat Parish Hall in a Curragh Group 3 over 10f on his comeback run at Irish soil. Not able to confirm this in two subsequent Group 1's when he had to settle for second behind Noble Mission in the Tattersalles Gold Cup and the Prince of Wales's behind The Fugue. Surely a very solid chance in the King George as the highest rated horse in the field. He gets 12f but probably is better suited to a strongly run 10f. So or so, he has to run to his very best to win this. He didn't seem to progress as a four year old and there might be one or two here capable of improving past him. 

Mukhadram, 12/1 - Surprise winner of the Coral Eclipse earlier this month, when he was in the right position and all well fancied rivals didn't quite get the run of the race in the same way. He quickened nicely and stayed on strongly to win with two lengths to spare to Trading Leather. A deserved Group 1 after he came short on a couple of occasions. He'll relish ground conditions, however question mark is the trip as he does try 12f for the first time. He is not a sure stayer and won't get his own way in front either. A strong pace is expected with other horses likely to press for the lead. That all counts against him, on the other hand he is a very reliable, solid sort. 

Telescope, 9/4 - A hype horse as a to and three year old, when he was unable to fulfil the promise throught his classic season, though. He won the Great Voltigeur but flopped in three Group 3's throughout the season. Beaten twice at the beginning of the new season, he suddenly showed dramatic improvement for the step up to 12f and quick ground. He won the Hardwicke Stakes in those kind of conditions at Royal Ascot last month in runaway fashion and finally seems to become the horse many thought he would be in his classic season. On the basis of this most recent performance, he goes as favourite into the King George and with quick ground expected, it isn't impossible that he can improve further on only his third start over 12f. For all of that, he is an obvious chance. 

Trading Leather, 14/1 - Ultra consistent sort who loves fast ground. Won the Irish Derby last year and confirmed that performance with subsequent placed efforts in strong and competitive races, like second placed efforts behind Novellist in the the King George and Declaration Of War in the Juddmonte International. He was a rather disappointing odds-on favourite on his seasonal comeback at Newmarket, when beaten in third, but presented himself clearly improved in the Coral Eclipse when he finished runner-up behind Mukhadram. He had the run of the race but didn't cope with the speed of the eventual winner. The step up in trip to 12f seems logical and on his beloved quick ground he shouldn't have a problem to stay. A good pace would help him to settle. He should run his race yet again, if that is enough to win, is debatable. 

Eagle Top, 6/1 - Supplemented at a cost of £75,000 after he win the King Edward VII Stakes in impressive style at Royal Ascot last month. The lightly raced John Gosden trained colt was clearly improved that day after he wasn't right on his first handicap start following a good maiden win on debut. Visually he was extremely impressive at Ascot, when he trailed the field and wasn't in a very favourable position turning for home, when he was also forced to take the widest route around the whole field. Once straighten up in the home straight he appeared to be quickly on the bridle and put the race easily to bed. There'll be much more to come and connections think allot of him, thus he was supplemented for big money. He will find it more difficult in this field to come from a long way off the pace though, as naturally that is a disadvantage at Ascot when you don't get into position from 4f out. However the likely strong pace will help and he looked special the last time. He has to prove that he's up to this class, but it seems very likely that he is indeed.

Romsdal, 33/1 - Lightly raced Halling son who finished a very creditable third in the Epsom Derby behind Australia and Kingston Hill. Good runner-up in the Chaster Vase before. Only win came in a Kempton maiden though and quick ground is not sure to suit. Looks more like a Ledger type, the way he stayed on at Chester and also how he finished in the Derby, when he couldn't keep up with the speedier two horses in front but equally run honestly to the line. Pedigree suggests he would get further with stamina on both sire and particularly dam side. He likes to be rather up with the pace, which could secure him a good position when it matters and the fact that he stays well could be a bonus if he didn't burn too much energy before. For all of that, it's hard to see him winning this though.

Taghrooda, 11/4 - Unbeaten in three starts, highly progressive, hugely impressive winner of the Epsom Oaks. Won that day like a true champion. She still pulled hard over 4f out which would have cost most horses the race but she didn't lose any momentum and continued to travel like a dream. Ground and trip are fine, she can be ridden in any way, and there must be more to come on only her fourth start. She receives loads of weight as a three year old filly, however it has to be said that three year old fillies haven't won the King George for decades. So it is not an easy task, but she must have a cracking chance to go very close at the very least, considering how easily she beat some good horses in the Oaks. 

Verdict: Undoubtedly if it comes to recent form, then there are three stand out chances in this field: Telescope, Taghrooda and Eagle Top. Looking for the value in this race, I find it hard to fancy the first two named horses though. For obvious reasons, either Telescope or Taghrooda have cracking chances to win the King George, and me dismissing them in the betting doesn't mean I don't think they are likely to go close. Much the opposite. Telescope over 12f on quick ground can well be able to pull out more and finally win a Group 1. While Taghrooda was mightily impressive in the Oaks and is for me the likeliest winner of the race. However I believe they are too shot in the betting market, considering how competitive this race this. Their prices might be a fair evaluation of their chances, but does not reflect any value. 

I do like Romsdal as an each-way chance, as I feel tactically with his ability to stay potentially further, he could be one who keeps going and won't fade away easily. But I can't see him winning either. Trading Leather and Flintshire, from the bigger prices, with conditions in favour, I would expect to go well with  a chance to be right in the mix when it matters. Magician if he can find back to his best, is well able to go very close, but he wasn't convincing this season, so it is hard to recommend him. However the outstanding value in the race is Eagle Top at 6/1, which seems way too big in my mind. He used to be an even bigger price not too long ago, but still is seems a very generous offer - if he takes up his chance, as his trainer is not too keen to let him run if the ground dries out any further. But Eagle Top was so spectacular and visually impressive at Royal Ascot, he truly looked a special colt to my eyes with an awful lot of potential. He won on quick ground that day, so that won't be an issue. Only slight worry for me is if he'll be well enough positioned when the field turns for home. But that is a decision we have to trust William Buick. If he isn't too far off when the field turns for home and he isn't forced to go widest, I feel he'll have everything in his hands to go and win the King George.

Eagle Top @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win 

Wednesday Night Selections - 23rd July 2014

19.55 Leicester: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f - A compact and competitive field in this feature race of a decent Leicester evening card. The six year old Mister Fizz shares the top weight and comes into this race in good form. In all his three starts this season he has been competitive and was never far beaten. Not a bad performance in his latest at Epsom, when he attempted to make all, fought hard but seemed to tire in the closing stages, even though he also stumbled around the 1f marker which cost momentum. He followed up on his impressive success in a three-runner Handicap at Haydock, though that form has to bee taken with caution since it came on extreme ground conditions in a very small field. Five pounds higher tomorrow, Mister Fizz has to run to a career best, which is not impossible since he seems still improving. 

Kuda Huraa was well  beaten last time out but he is probably better judged on his penultimate performance when he ran out a nice 3rd at Windsor, a form that works out well through strong subsequent performances from the winner and runner-up. Kuda Huraa is rather lightly raced on the turf, he tried jumping for a while and raced on the All-Weather earlier in his career. His best performance came at Epsom last summer when he was only beaten by a head in a very competitive class 3 Handicap.of a mark off 85 - he is currently on the same mark, and proved his competitiveness with the Windsor race. Quick ground is very much what he wants, which is what he gets here at Leicester. The trip is no issue at all, which says Kuda Huraa has conditions in his favour and could be a big runner. 

Progressive Dolphin Village achieved a career best at Thirsk last month when he landed a good Class 3 Handicap in fine style. The way he pulled clear suggested there could be still more to come and he'll relish the conditions at Leicester tomorrow. He has to defy a new career highest mark and is expected to start favourite at the off. Monsieur Rieussec is another well fancied runner with a similar profile like Dolphin Village, to a certain extent at least. Monsieur Rieussec has not too many miles on the clock yet and was progressive last season, but he appears to be in the grip of the Handicapper, so that the step up to 12f must bring out some further improvement to see him in with a realistic winning chance. The betting market suggests that he'll be fine over a distance, but on pedigree there isn't a clear evidence that he stays that far. In fact it is far from obvious. The fact that he never appeared to be crying out for a longer trip on his two starts over 10f, doesn't instill any confidence either. 

Veterab Tepmokea was disappointing at Chester recently, but finished a fine 2nd at Thirsk in the race that Dolphin Village did win.. Tepmokea attempted to make all and went off very quick, leading the field by a big margin throughout the race and was very gutsy when put under pressure by horses left and right to him in the closing stages. He couldn't cope with Dolphin Village's attack, however did fend off all the rest of the pursuers and was less than two lengths beaten in the end. A 4lb swing in the weights with Dolphin Village must give him a fair chance to turn the table with that rival. HAyley Turner's mount Incendo is one from one over course and distance, but should find it difficult to land a blow in this field off his current mark. 

Verdict: It seems a more open race than the betting suggests. Dolphin Village must have a fair chance to follow up on his recent success, while Mister Fizz has the potential improve further too. Most appeal on current prices makes Kuda Huraa who is a very dangerous runner with conditions to suit if he can run to the form he showed at Windsor in May. Tepmokea's gutsy performance at Thirsk was eye-catching. Better in the weights now compared to Dolphin Village, he should be very much involved in the shake-up as well. 

Kuda Huraa @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Tepmokea @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

18.35 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile - A race that could be dominated by the three year olds, brings lightly raced and well seasoned horses together in a typical mid-summer contest. The two three year olds bring winning form to the table. Most notably Luca Cumani's colt Alketios. He broke his maiden tag on third attempt at Haydock last month. He won comfortably in the end that day, but was made work hard it and seemed to be rather one paced and simply outstayed his rivals eventually. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him doing better over further, even though his fair looking opening mark gives him chances over a mile too. 

The other three year old in the line-up is trained by none else than Sir Michael Stoute. The Oasis Dream colt Matravers won a rather poor looking maiden at Leicester over 7f recently on his fourth career start. He tries a mile again tomorrow, which shouldn't be too much of an issue on pedigree though. The Handicapper has given him a chance with an opening mark of 73. However I feel he needs to be better than that to land this. 

Top weight Ogbourne Downs is a winner of three races already and has been in good form in recent month. He'll love the quick Sandown ground as his most recent Brighton win gives him a chance to be competitive, however he hasn't won of higher than 79 yet, so he needs to find some improvement somewhere. Seven year old First Post is a three times course and distance winner and needs to be taken seriously. He is down to his last winning mark and run well more often than not this season. On the other hands it remains to be seen if he is still capable of pulling off a win from his current marks as he is not getting any younger.

The only filly in the race Annina is a very interesting runner. She won a maiden back in September 2012 on her debut in a mightily impressive performance, and got subsequently a big opening mark allocated. She clearly wasn't up to it, but finally at Newbury in her lasted start, she showed some sort of return to form - then rated 80. Over 7f she led the field but got outpaced from over 3f out. She clearly didn't have the speed of some others, but she stayed on very well to finish 3rd. On this performance and on pedigree she clearly needs further. So to tackle a mile will help her, she might need even 10f to be seen at her best though. For now, with the new trip and a fair mark, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her improving a bit, which would give her a good chance to win this race. 

Verdict: The three year olds have a fine chance due to the weight for age allowance, however both are far from convincing chances to justify their short price tag. The filly Annina makes appeal as the value chance of the race as she should be happy over the trip and ground and could show more than what she did so far off a decent mark. 

Annina @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

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Sunday was a disaster for us. My Titania was a disappointing third without looking really dangerous at any point of the race. No excuses for that, she doesn't seem to be good enough and in hindsight it was a poor bet considering the short price.Our second selection Ponfeigh didn't do any better and was beaten before the race realy started. Disappointing. 

Curragh Selections - Sunday 20th July

15.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Group 2) - This nine furlong contest seem to be all about the talented John Oxx filly My Titania. The Sea The stars daughter was surprisingly precocious last season as a juvenile, when she won two of her three starts. My Titania won a Leopardstown maiden, beating a couple of decent horses that day. Runner-up Afternoon Sunlight developed into a 1.000 Guineas trial winner, while third Lahinch Classics finished later a close runner-up in an Oaks trial behind the subsequent second and third of the English and Irish Oaks. My Titania went on to win a 7f Group 3 at the Curragh in nice style and was then installed as one of the favourites for next years Guineas. She missed that as we know now, and instead she made a belated return to the racetrack in the Grade 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, stepping up to 1m for the first time. Things didn't go to plan there as she found herself right on top of the field soon after the start, with no pace on whatsoever. My Titania pulled like a train and must have burned and awful lot of energy in those early stages of the race. Once the pace was on, she travelled very comfortably - in fact she travelled best of all like the winner, on the bridle until the 2f marker. However, once off the bridle, she found very little. At least she stayed on a bit. On the basis of that run, it is probably easy to assume that she will improve fitness wise, and that a further step up in trip to 9f doesn't have to be an issue. Her pedigree gives her every chance to stay the trip easily. The quick ground is fine for her too, and dropping in class, should help certainly too.

What about the rest of the field? Some good rivals in the line-up, no doubt about that. Peace Burg ran a very fine race in the Falmouth Stakes, and rates a clear danger today, with conditions sure to suit. Wannabe Better is a fair, consistent filly, she is a listed winner but hasn't won at the Curragh in eight starts and might be a bit below the standard required to win this. Odeliz is also a consistent sort and up to this level for sure. Her second place behind Thistle Bird at Epsom last month gives her a chance here, she might want a bit further though and could be found out for speed. Mango Diva has won on Group 3 level in the past and will be happy on the quick ground, she has to run to her best though, so has Indigo Lady, and probably need to find a bit of improvement as well, to really feature here. Lahinch Classics is a lightly raced filly, who rates a big danger if she can improve on her fourth start. She might found this trip a bit on the short side I suspect, and was beaten by My Titania quite easily last season. So it remains to be seen how competitive she can be over 9f on quick ground today, but as the only other 3yo, she is on level weights and that makes her a big runner. 

Verdict: My Titania is NAP material. With the weight for age allowance and her undoubted class, she should be better than all the older horses here. If she gets the trip and  a clear passage, it is hard to see her getting beaten. Lahinch Classics and Peace Burg are the biggest dangers. --- My Titania [NAP] @ 11/10 Bet365 - 6pts win

15.15 Curragh: Meld Stakes (Group 3) - Only four runners in a graded contest is always a disappointment, but we still an intriguing and competitive contest on our hands. Parish Hall seems the leading contender for the older horses. He is very consistent, however finds it hard to get his head in front and can't be backed with any confidence. Aiden O'Brien's Festive Cheer finished 3rd in last years Irish Derby, was disappointing subsequently. The drop in trip might help him to regain his old form. Afternoon Sunlight tries the trip for the first time. She won a 1.000 Guineas trial in nice style. On pedigree 10f seems possible, however her 70 days absence from the racetrack is a worry. The other 3yo Ponfeigh is clearly the most interisting runner. He found the Irish Derby too hot and the trip probably too far, dropping to ten will surly help, and seems very much possible on pedigree. He is lightly raced and unexposed but showed loads of potential when winning a conditions race at Navan in extremely impressive style. He travelled strongly and produced a stunning turn of foot to win easily and looked a Group winner in the making. Ponfeigh is expexted to improve past all the other rivals in this race and on current odds is the one I like to be on here. --- Ponfeigh @ 4/1 VC - 3pts win

Late selection for Haydock, Saturday 19th July

19.00 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 14f - Quality handicap considering the class of the race, with some good and competitive sorts in the race. It seems rather open, even though Lady Cecil's Perfect Summer proves popular and the filly tops the market quite comfortably. But she won't have all her own way, even though she is interesting if she can run to the form over this trip that she showed on her penultimate start. 

Most interesting contender in the field considering the current odds, is Ralph Beckett's Aldborough. The four year old is still lightly raced and tries this trip for the first time. He clearly wasn't right the last time at Kempton, though that performance is a worry. However before that he won really nicely a Handicap over 12f at Chepstow in soft conditions. So the rain that has been coming over the day at Haydock today, should be in his favour. On pedigree he should have a very decent chance to stay the trip and it might well bring out further improvement. Of a mark of 76 he might not be finished yet, so I'll give him a chance to be a big runner in this field. --- Aldborough @ 9/1 Betfred - 2pts win

Irish Oaks - Betting Preview

Cracking renewal of the Irish Oaks, despite the absence of Epsom Oaks winner Taghrooda. However the 2nd and 3rd of that race are here today and try to get a Group 1 on the board. Either Tarfasha and Volume are obvious chances, their form is clearly standing out and it's hard to argue against them. There seems little between them but I feel Volume will be much more happy on the galloping Curragh round. He'll attempt to make all and that can be a successful plan here. If you want to argue against them, though, you could state that this a hot race today, that they have to confirm that they are really up to the task and that both got pretty much a clear passage in the Epsom Oaks. On current prices, I would prefer Volume, but I like to look elsewhere for value, cause the Curragh is a much different track to anything these two have encountered yet. Even though Tarfasha did run here in the past. I don't say she isn't a worthy favourite, but short enough in the betting for sure. 

I can't have the O'Brien trio Tapestry, Palace and Marvellous. I doubt that they are either good enough or happy of this trip. Recent Ribblesdale winner Bracelet must be taken very seriously today though. She ran a mighty race on her first try over 12f and should be in with a big shout today. Runner-up in that race was Lustrous. A horse I do really like. She tried the trip for the first time that day and clearly stayed it. In contract to Bracelet, she didn't get a clear run though. She travelled nicely in rear turning for home, but got stuck in traffic and had to switch wide, delaying her run, which meant she had also to find her stride quickly once in the clear. She stayed on really strongly to finish 2nd and it could be argued that with a clear run she would have been very close to the winner eventually. She has to prove that today and her running style might not be a perfect fit for the Curragh, but she is well overpriced and worth a a bit of money.

From the other long-shots I do feel Ballybacka Queen could run a big race. She steps up quite dramatically in trip, however she is bred to get the Oaks distance, which in fact should suit much better than all the trips she raced over so far. She won a maiden over 7f, as her only success to date, but her 3rd behind Afternoon Sunlight at Leopardstown in a Group 3 over 1m is interesting. She was outpaced at the rear of the field turning for home, but she stayed on very strongly, clearly indicating she needs further. Not a surprise that she didn't follow up in another race over a mile, but now she tackles 12f for the first time and that could easily see out some improvement. If she is good enough, if the ground is what she wants - well we'll find out. But at 100/1 I think I give her some sort of a chance to be in the money. 

Lustrous @ 25/1 StanJames - 0.5pts e/w

Ballybacka Queen  100/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts e/w

Racing Selections - Thursday 17th July 2014

Following our NAP in the last post, I've identified two more interesting horses, that may, may not be pretty well handicapped. Both are some sort of dangerous selections considering most recent form, but both equally have the chance to be extremely well treated of their current mark in today conditions. 

15.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f - An interesting and wide open handicap with some well exposed, and some unexposed sorts. The Godolphin Almerzem heads the betting market and there is reason why. He's lightly raced of course, it's his handicap debut and he is well enough bred. However he didn't show much in three maidens and the trip is not sure to suit entirely. His opening mark looks high enough for all of that, even though he could also easily exploit it. However he is a risky proposition and I would avoid to bet on him. Hard Core Dept has recent winning form and is expected to run a fine race under a 6lb penalty. He is not sure to follow up though. Most interesting runner in this field is undoubtedly the Keith Dalgleish's Incurs Four Faults. We have to believe his recent performance when he was pulled up was just an off day, otherwise it wouldn't make sense to let him run so soon after again. So if we draw a line under that run, we can take a look on his penultimate run when he won at Carlisle on quick ground over 9f in really nice style. Effectively he is seven pounds higher today, but that must not be a problem. In fact he goes into this race as an absolute feather weight with only 8st 0lb to shoulder, which one stone less then his nearest competitor. As a three year old he has obviously a weight advantage against older horses. Now he has to show that he is good enough to compete in this class against - on paper at least - way better horses. But he has not too many miles on the clock yet and might pull out some improvement, which would give him a strong chance of this low weight here. --- Incurs Four Faults @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

16.15 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 13f - Seven starters in this Handicap which seems open on paper. Mark Johnston's lightly races favourite has to prove that he can live up to his current mark on turf as he is ten pounds higher than his last win which came on the All-Weather. O Ma Lad and Aleksandar seem sure to run their race but they shouldn't have too much in hand if there would be one less exposed rival show some improvement. This rival could be Godolphin's extremely lightly raced Emirates Galloper. Sure, he didn't show much since a winning debut over 7f last year, but he had only three starts to date and he steps up markedly in trip, which on pedigree if sure to suit. He is well bred and has stamina all over his pedigree, so it would be a surprise if this trip wouldn't bring out improvement. If that is enough to be competitive in a decent race that this one is, off a mark of 83 remains to be seen, but there must b a very fair chance. And while this opposition isn't entirely poor, it surely is a race to win for an improver. For that reason, EG is the value in the race for me. --- Emirates Galloper @ 6/1 VC - 2pts win

NAP Of The Day - Thursday 17th July 2014

15.05 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f - Small field that is even further decimated by non-runners, but this can only emphasize the chance favourite Iseemist must have to follow up on her most recent impressive Epsom success.This 3yo filly is in red hot form, as she won two races earlier this year, one over course and distance, finished a decent 4th in a competitive class 3 Handicap at Goodwood, was subsequently touched off in the dying strides at Windsor and took on then the older horses at Epsom last week when she won nicely in against good opposition. In this field today, with her three year old weight allowance she must have a cracking chance to win under a penalty as she is turned out soon enough again, preventing the handicapper to raise her mark further. The fact that she is fine on ground, track and trip with the weights in favour in a less than exciting field gives her a bigger chance than the price suggests. She should be short odds-on in my mind. --- Iseemist @ 11/8 PP - 7pts win

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We had a lovely 11/1 winner yesterday with Lady Frances. The 3yo filly made all in hands of Joe Fanning and won with bit of authority in the end. Exactly what we hoped for. With conditions in her favour, she had absolutely no problem to produce her best on turf. Our second selection of the day, admittedly some kind of a speculative one, surly didn't get a winning ride but was also not good enough to get anywhere near the eventual winner, it has to be stated in all fairness.

Racing Selections - Wednesday 16th July 2014

16.00 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 6f - Undoubtedly this 3yo filly has better form on the All-Weather during her career so far. She did well on her latest start over 7f at Lingfield when she finished 3rd eight days ago. She travelled nicely from the front, setting a good pace and looked in with a big shout turning for home. She got tired in the closing stages though. This suggests, as everything that she has shown so far, that 7f is stretching her stamina. Her three career wins came over 5f and 6f. So the drop in trip is in favour today. What about her poor turf showing? I would imagine that she just didn't have found right conditions yet. She was either too high in the mark, ran over a trip too far, or might found combinations of it all with ground not right. However she showed that she is quite a capable filly when she finished runner-up over 7f at Doncaster on quick ground in a conditions race last year, and earlier this season she finished a creditable 3rd at Doncaster again over 7f, this time on soft ground, off a mark of 89. She drops now to a new career lowest turf mark today, with quick ground most likely to suit and the trip exactly what she wants. Track is an unknown but as she likes to be in front or at least prominent, she should be actually favoured by the way Catterick races often pan out. I feel she is a big runner with Joe Fanning on board and while there are some other capable sorts in the line-up, Lady Frances has a nice 3yo weight allowance, which combined with the factors mark, ground and trip makes her a stand out bet for 11/1 in my mind. --- Lady Frances @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

20.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f: The clear favourite Rapid Advance makes plenty of appeal on paper, following his good win on Handiap debut at Goodwood. Only 2lb higher and up in trip, he is an obvious chance. On pedigree there is a very fair chance that he gets the trip, however I worry about the speed on the dam side, which makes we worry and not confident enough to have Rapid Advance as a rather short priced favourite. Behind him there is not much substance in the betting, some minor lto winners, but overall all less than exciting. I feel this opens the door for a long-shot. And for that reason I do like to give Cobham's Circus a chance here on his Handicap debut of a potentially low mark. He is only 67 rated, didn't show much in three maidens before to even warrant such a rating, but the dramatic step up in trip from 7f to 10f should resonate in dramatic improvement. He is all stamina on his sire side, and while his dam never won over further than 6f, there is plenty of stamina further down the line, as on the dam's sire side in particular. In fact it might well turned out to be that Cobham's Circus might even need further in time. For now, 10f looks well worth a try, in fact should see him in much better light than what his performances suggested in maiden company. --- Cobham's Circus @ 16/1 Betfred - 0.5pts e/w

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Have to quickly provide the results from last weekend: After Saturday seemed to be disastrous during the afternoon, the evening meeting at Salisbury brought as back big time! 2 winners from the two selected bets - that's the way we like it! Not quite what I hoped for on Sunday then, when our two selections in South Africa let us down. 

Betting Preview - Turffontein Races - Sunday 13th July

14.05 Turffontein: FM 86 Handicap, 1.160m - Wide open race with many uncertainties. Eight runners gives us a nice chance for some each-money and bottom weight Hello Polly is a very interesting runner here today. She hasn't been anywhere near her best in the last two starts, but before that she finished an excellent 2nd over CD, just being piped on the line. She is a very speedy sort, usually bounces out off the gates leading the field. She had to race under top weight in most of her recent runs since she finally got off the mark in a maiden over course and distance in January when she absolutely smashed a field which wasn't too bad considering that the form works out quite well. Hello Polly steps up markedly in class today, but with a nice light weight of only 52kg she must have a fine chance to run a big race and bring it home under a front-running ride given that her course record is excellent with 1win, 2places in five attempts. --- Hello Polly @ 12/1 Sportingbet - 1pt e/w

15.15 Turffontein: FM 83 Handicap, 1.600m - Lightly raced 3yo filly Featherfoot is extremely progressive and won three of her five career starts to date. If she can progress further, she's a fine chance to win this and develop into a pattern class filly. However she has to defy top weight today with 61.5kg which is a very big ask for a 3yo against some experienced and older sorts. If she is all class, she has to show it today in order to be able win it under such a ig weight. I like to look further down the scale to the also still generally lightly raced African Blue. She is quite progressive, even though she has won only one race from eight starts to date, but there were some factors I believe that counted against her in recent starts. She won a maiden, which form works out well enough, in the manner of a very smart filly when she trailed the field in a slowly run race, had to be switched widest then and had still a good six lengths to make up from 400m out, yet she produced a stunning turn of foot to win it in the last couple of strides, while looking absolutely in control. She disappointed in a subsequent start when dropped in trip, when connections campaigned her in the following races mostly over 2.000m then, a trip that seems to stretch her stamina. She usually faded in those races in the closing stages, yet run consistently well. Her only other start over 1.600m resulted in a 1l beaten third place, when she made stylish progress from the rear of the field to lead briefly 100m out, but she seemed to lose bit of focus when it really matters. She drops back to this trip today and has a nice weight, most importantly blinkers are fitted first time, and they should make a huge difference to her. If they can keep her focused, then she should be ale to realize her potential and I suspect she can be easily a good deal better than her current mark of 73. --- African Blue @ 6/1 Sportingbet - 2pts ein

Betting Preview - Delaware Handicap (Gade 1)

21.51 Delaware Park: Delaware Handicap (Grade 1) - Red hot odds-on favourite Princess of Sylmar is expected to land the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap against opposition she should have little to nothing to fear from normally. POS was an exceptional 3yo last season as the winner of four Grade 1's! Her only real disappointment came late in the season in the Breeders Cup. She started 2014 with success in Listed company, stepped up back into Grade 1 class in the Ogden Phipps Stakes where she only got beaten on the line. She's stepping up to 10f today but is expected to get the trip alright and if she does and is well in herself, she'll be hard to beat. She gives weight away though and Molly Morgan is the one that - on paper at least - could com closest to beat her. MM is in the form of her life, and if she can confirm her recent form, then she is in with a shout - question mark is if she can follow up as in the Fleur De Lis Handicap, arguably her best career performance, she had the run of the race. Flashy American was a four lengths beaten 2nd that day and is not out of this, but has a bit to find. 

From the bigger prices, the four year old filly Gamay Noir makes most appeal. She is progressive and should relish the longer trip today. She won the Grade 3 Obeah Stakes here at Delaware, which is the trial for the Delaware Handicap. She won it nicely and course form counts for allot here. There might be still a bit of improvement in her and she has a nice weight today, for all of that she is a big price, and is the one I like most to give the Princess a run for the money.

Gamay Noir @ 16/1 William Hill - 1pt win

Preview - Evening Racing at Salisbury

19.30 Salisbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m - The favourite Fajry is a very likable sort and open to a considerable amount of improvement. He won a Thirsk maiden on debut in impressive style and the step up in trip should suit today. For all of that, he is short enough in the market and I feel it may pay off to go with the Roger Charlton filly Hiking. She had only five starts today, was progressive as a juvenile and is open to further improvement now as a 3yo. She made an impressive winning debut last season, followed up with another nice and easy success and was a hat-trick only denied by the narrowest of margins when she stepped up to a mile on the Kempton All-Weather. Her seasonal reappearance at Doncaster last month was better than the bare result suggests as she travelled nicely but met interference at a crucial stage when she tried to make decisive headway. She is better than that and should improve for the run today. The quick ground will very much suit on pedigree, so should the mile. There is enough stamina in sire and particularly dam side to be confident that the trip won't be an issue. --- Hiking @ 7/2 PP - 3pts win

21.00 Salisury: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f - Tearless made a belated debut at Goodwood recently and she couldn't have been more impressive giving loads of weight away against some very decent three year olds that had much more experience. She travelled nicely, made strong headway from 3f out and and was going away in the closing stage to win with authority. Her opening mark of 90 seems fair and one would assume that she could go right into pattern class following this race, which I expect her to win. She steps up to 10f now which on pedigree should really suit since she is by Street City and out of Lancashire Oaks winner Playful Art. That says Tearless is beautifully bred, gave a big impression on debut, will relish the ground and the trip - it would be disappointing to see her getting beaten. --- [NAP] Tearless @ 11/4 Bet365 - 5pts win 

Betting Tips - Saturday 12th July 2014

14.40 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f - Conditions ensure that this will a wide open contest. This contest for two year olds is full of lightly raced sorts, and only a handful has every tried the trip, or has encountered soft ground before. So it's hard to have too much confidence in any horse and for that reason I concentrate on the bigger prices horses in this field. Most appeal of them makes clearly Smaih, a recent winner on his second career start and a a son of Paco Boy, who had a fine start with his offspring so far. Smaih won a rather poor maiden at Chepstow, but the way he did it was impressive. Nice turn of foot, almost hands and heels to win it by three lengths, despite hanging and being still quite green. Form doesn't look too shabby since the 3rd finished a good runner-up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. Smaih was only half a lengths beaten on debut, and the winner of that race went on to run big in the Coventry Stakes. 

Smaih should relish the step up in trip. His sire Paco Boy was a classy miler but also an excellent 7f horse. He won on soft. There is stamina on the dam side and form on soft going through the dam's sire too. That suggests that trip and ground should be fine for Smaih. Obviously he has to prove it now but be is a bib price to do so. --- Smaih @ 12/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Mica Mika

17.35 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f - It seems rather easy to discount a good deal of the runners in this field just on the basis of ground, trip, handicap mark and current form. There are two outstanding chances in this race though, if is about the conditions. Mica Mika hasn't won of a mark as high as he is on at the moment - on turf at least- but he has never had a better chance to do so. He has winning form on soft ground and is multiple winner over 12f of marks up to 77. He was mightly unlucky at Windsor a fortnight ago, when he was one pound out of the handicap, so was basically racing of 78. He travelled best of all and seemed poised for a big challenge from over 2f out. Unfortunately he never got out and was stuck in traffic until he crossed the finish line on the bridle. He should have won that race that day and can redeem himself today with conditions in favour. 

Rosslyn Castle could be a big danger. His two starts on the flat this year haven't been too encouraging, but he is down to a very handy mark now. He is 10lb below his last flat winning mark and his best form came over 12f with cut in the ground. so this combination of a handy weight, perfect ground and trip, must give him a big chance to go close today. 

Mica Mika @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Rosslyn Castle @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt e/w

15.30 York: John Smith's City Walls Stakes (Listed) - Kingsgate Native is dropping into Listed company and should be hard to beat since he seems to be as good as ever with strong recent form in the book. However he's only a fair price. Behind it seems fairly open and while the 3yo must have a chance with their weight allowance, I fancy long-shot Whozthecat to do well today. He probably needed his recent run, which came in soft conditions over 6f, which was never going to suit anyway. back over 5f on quick ground - that is what he likes. He was late progressing as a 6yo last season, when he landed a big Handicap at the Curragh, which poses very strong form, since horses behind him that day subsequently won Listed and Group races. If he can be anywhere near that kind of form, he in with a big shout today. I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he hasn't won at York before, but with conditions in favour, and hopefully stripping fitter, he's a lively outsider in this race. --- Whozthecat @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win