Betting Tips - Saturday 12th July 2014

14.40 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f - Conditions ensure that this will a wide open contest. This contest for two year olds is full of lightly raced sorts, and only a handful has every tried the trip, or has encountered soft ground before. So it's hard to have too much confidence in any horse and for that reason I concentrate on the bigger prices horses in this field. Most appeal of them makes clearly Smaih, a recent winner on his second career start and a a son of Paco Boy, who had a fine start with his offspring so far. Smaih won a rather poor maiden at Chepstow, but the way he did it was impressive. Nice turn of foot, almost hands and heels to win it by three lengths, despite hanging and being still quite green. Form doesn't look too shabby since the 3rd finished a good runner-up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. Smaih was only half a lengths beaten on debut, and the winner of that race went on to run big in the Coventry Stakes. 

Smaih should relish the step up in trip. His sire Paco Boy was a classy miler but also an excellent 7f horse. He won on soft. There is stamina on the dam side and form on soft going through the dam's sire too. That suggests that trip and ground should be fine for Smaih. Obviously he has to prove it now but be is a bib price to do so. --- Smaih @ 12/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Mica Mika

17.35 Newmarket: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f - It seems rather easy to discount a good deal of the runners in this field just on the basis of ground, trip, handicap mark and current form. There are two outstanding chances in this race though, if is about the conditions. Mica Mika hasn't won of a mark as high as he is on at the moment - on turf at least- but he has never had a better chance to do so. He has winning form on soft ground and is multiple winner over 12f of marks up to 77. He was mightly unlucky at Windsor a fortnight ago, when he was one pound out of the handicap, so was basically racing of 78. He travelled best of all and seemed poised for a big challenge from over 2f out. Unfortunately he never got out and was stuck in traffic until he crossed the finish line on the bridle. He should have won that race that day and can redeem himself today with conditions in favour. 

Rosslyn Castle could be a big danger. His two starts on the flat this year haven't been too encouraging, but he is down to a very handy mark now. He is 10lb below his last flat winning mark and his best form came over 12f with cut in the ground. so this combination of a handy weight, perfect ground and trip, must give him a big chance to go close today. 

Mica Mika @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Rosslyn Castle @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt e/w

15.30 York: John Smith's City Walls Stakes (Listed) - Kingsgate Native is dropping into Listed company and should be hard to beat since he seems to be as good as ever with strong recent form in the book. However he's only a fair price. Behind it seems fairly open and while the 3yo must have a chance with their weight allowance, I fancy long-shot Whozthecat to do well today. He probably needed his recent run, which came in soft conditions over 6f, which was never going to suit anyway. back over 5f on quick ground - that is what he likes. He was late progressing as a 6yo last season, when he landed a big Handicap at the Curragh, which poses very strong form, since horses behind him that day subsequently won Listed and Group races. If he can be anywhere near that kind of form, he in with a big shout today. I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he hasn't won at York before, but with conditions in favour, and hopefully stripping fitter, he's a lively outsider in this race. --- Whozthecat @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts win

Big Race Preview - July Cup

THE July Cup is one of the World's best and most prestigious sprints. Over 6 furlongs we'll see a bunch of top class athletes thundering down the Newmarket July course - it doesn't last long, but it's exciting, fast and furious! A big purse of £510,000 is on offer, so no surprise to see the crème de la crème of Europe's sprinters taking each other on today. Who is gonna win it? That's the big question. Ground conditions haven't made things easier. After loads of rain the last few days, the going is officially described as soft now. That'll make life tough for some, but brings in some others into the equation. Let's take a look at all the important runners in this race, and examine their chances.

The likes of Gregorian, who has never contested in a sprint and always did his best work over further, up to 9f, but he relishes juice in the ground, and that gives him a chance if he is speedy enough. Jack Dexter loves cut in the ground too, all his best form comes on softish ground. He hasn't been good enough for a while, but if he could find back to his best form, then he is in with a shout. Moviesta is a Group 2 winner over 5f and has form on soft ground, however might find the trip a bit too far. You wouldn't think that Rex Imperator is good enough in this company, but he finished a close 2nd on soft over 7f in Listed company, and has enough speed for 6f - so not impossible to see him involved in the finish. Tropics is a G3 winner over 6f on good to soft, but hasn't shown anything this year. Exciting 3yo filly Hot Streak excels on rain softened ground, she was a big runner in the King's Stand when finishing 3rd behind Sole Power - she should have a real go again, however the trip is a slight concern as her best form is over five. Can she see out the trip in a tough Group 1? Mentioning Sole Power, he is a top class sprinter, we know that. But 6f on soft ground is surly not what he wants and for that reason it is really hard to be to enthusiastic about his chance here today. 

His stable mate Slade Power is the big favourite for this race. He won the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot in fine style and he is clearly improved this year compared to last season, when he still performed well in July Cup. He seems to have all in favour today. Distance, ground - he relishes soft ground - beat mud lover Maarek at a rain softened Curragh earlier this year - has the best recent form one can imagine. He is an obvious chance to win this race. The money is coming for him, no surprise, and as low as 2/1 now, the betting clearly favours him to land a nother big price. 

International flair finds its way into the race with Noozhooh Canarias, the Spanish "speed ball". I talked him up in this blog before, right after the 2.000 Guineas. That day he attempted to make all and set the Rowley Mile alight with a blistering pace. He was still in front 1f out, but then he had to pay tribute for all the energy he burned up to then and faded away. S the drop in trip will very much suit, ground should be fine, even though I have the slight feeling that he actually is better on a fast going. He is a very interesting contender today though and I'm really looking forward to see what he can do. The US raider Undrafted is an unknown quantity. He is a Grade 3 winner over 6f on the dirt back home, has some form on turf too and won  up to 1 mile there. Soft ground is a big worry for him though and it is really hard to know what to expect. 

From the Aiden O'Brien runners, Due Diligence makes most appeal. Cougar Mountain has a bit to find on form, while Fountain Of Youth is a fast ground horse. However Due Diligence showed in the Diamond Jubilee that he is a very talented sprinter. He finished a fine 2nd behind Slade Power that day, didn't quite get a clear run but also hit a bit of a flat spot at a crucial stage of the race. As a 3yo he has a nice weight due to the weight for age allowance and that rates him a big danger. On pedigree fast ground should be what he wants, but he looked perfectly fine when encountering cut in the ground in Ireland. He won a good Handicap at Naas, and followed up with a Listed success, both times with juice in the ground. That gives hope that he'll handle the conditions well today, and that must give him a nice chance to be right there when it matters, and then with a clear run, he could get closer to Slade Power. 

One last horse to mention: Astaire. Another three year old - he was a fine prospect in his juvenile season last year, some thought he'd be even a Guineas prospect, but it was soon clear that he wouldn't stay the trip when tried over further in the Greenham back in May. Reverted to sprinting then, he is now a top class 6 furlongs horse and he clearly showed that when finishing 2nd in a Group 2 at York behind Maarek also his latest run in the Diamond Jubilee wasn't bad at all, despite finishing down in 6th. But considering that he went off way too quick that  day, it must be rated a good performance. His best form comes with cut in the ground. He won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes on good to soft and a Group 2 on soft last season. With a nice weight due to the WFO allowance, and more sensible ride today, he can be a big runner in these conditions. 

Verdict: The horse to beat is Slade Power. He is a top class sprinter, has the right form in the book and will be hard to beat. However this is the July Cup, many things can happen and there is good opposition. So with odds pretty low, I'll try to find value and this lies with Aiden O'Brien's Due Diligence in my mind. He showed that he can handle these kind of conditions, he is more than up to this class as she showed in the Diamond Jubilee and there is more improvement to come. If he can show his best on this ground, he'll give Slade Power a run for the money. So should Astaire. Another three year old, like Due Diligence. He relishes the conditions, is a speedy sort, is a Group 1 winner, and confirmed with good performances this year that he clearly trained on. He's a big price and can run better than that.

Due Diligence @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Astaire @ 20/1 William Hill - 0.5pts e/w

Race Preview - Ascot Summer Mile

14.30 Ascot: Summer Mile - An intriguing contest with 12 starters. Ground conditions at Ascot are rather quick, so we probably can expect a fast race, thanks to some proven front-runners in the line-up. This race becomes interesting as it is the clash of strong, proven group performers, some up and coming talents and older horses that try to land the biggest victory of their career. Let's take a closer look! 

Tullius: won Group 2 in softish conditions earlier this season. Strong run in Queen Anne when staying on well, as he did in the Lockinge. proven Group performance and class act. Generally best with cut in the ground. Recent form gives him excellent chance in this.

Baltic Knight: Improving sort last year, won listed race over 1m on quick ground. Narrowly denied lto, career best required here in order to feature. 

Empire Storm: Last success is a while ago, 3rd in Listed race lto, shouldn't be good enough to feature.

Graphic: Strong form this year, won twice over 1m and runner-up twice, likes to be prominent, best form comes with cut in the ground though. Recent Group 3 success gives him chance here. 

Guest Of Honour: Won Listed over 1m recently, still not too many miles on the clock for five year old, goes well on quicker ground, fine 3rd in Group 2 at Ascot last year. Can improve for third start this season.

Highland Knight: Consistent pattern performer. Group 3 winner, likes to be prominent and gets further. No problem with ground, won Listed over trip and ground. Probably not quite up to level required in this race but can't be discounted.

Long John: Formerly trained in Australia, there Group 1 Guineas winner, won then UAE Guineas at Meydan this winter, but found 10f too far in UAE Derby. Should relish quick ground and must rate big runner in this field if he is fit. 

Mull Of Killough: Consistent and versatile, won Group 3 earlier this year, fine on quick ground but never won over CD in five starts and might lack speed on this quick surface on this level these days. 

Producer: Fair comeback run in Queen Anne last month, won Group 2 in Turkey on last start in 2013, goes well on quick ground and gets 1m. Better over 7f and strongly run race might exploit stamina issues here. Very consistent normally though and should be in the shake up.

The Rectifier: Good handicapper these days who likes to go from the front. Excellent form this year and will relish quick ground. Has to be at his absolute best and maybe even better to have a chance here though.

Trumpet Major: Nowhere near as good as he was as a promising three year old. Lost his form in summer last year and while he seemed to find back to some sort of form at Newmarket in May, he was disappointing subequently. Hard to see him featuring here.

Zambucca: Group 2 winner over 9f in native South Africa, was 3rd in Group company at Meydan earlier this year but disappointing in all subsequent start. Drop in trip might help but has loads to find in order to be competitive. 

Verdict: Tullius is a worthy favourite after his impressive performance in the Queen Anne Stakes following up on his strong 2nd in the Lockinge Stakes. Before that he won the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown in fine style. That is really strong form and whoever beats him will probally win the Summer Mile. But one could argue that quick ground may count against him. Connections thought of stepping him up to 10f, so it might happen that there is at least one rival in this field too quick for him tomorrow. Producer could run a big race if the pace isn't too strong, as he could use his turn of foot to full effect then. However there are some horses in the race that like to go from the front, so a likely strong pace could make life tough for him.

Graphic and Guest Of Honour are fine horses in their own right and would deserve a big Group 2, but at current odds, the Australian import Long John is a very interesting contender and potentially the class act in the field. He won the Grade 1 Caulfield Guineas back home in his native country, and was ultra impressive on the Meydan Tapeta when he landed the UAE Guineas. He didn't follow up in the UAE Derby, but the trip was probably too far for him and the race not quick enough. Back over 1m, that might be his optimum trip and quick ground conditions will very much suit. He's back from a little break, so this is the obvious question mark - how much work has his trainer left? But if he is well and fit, then he must rate a huge chance in this race. 

Long John @ 11/2 Betfred – 3pts win

Betting Tips: Friday 11 July 2014

20.40 Chepstow: Class 4 Handicap, 7 furlongs - this Handicap looks an open race and you can easily pick holes into the form of any horse. Favourite Postscript seems well treated on old form, however has never won over seven furlongs in his life. Perfect Mission won a poor Amateur Handicap recently, but this here requires much more. On old form he has a chance, but on balance he shouldn't be good enough. Sarangoo dropped to a good mark and took advantage of it at Windsor over 6f in an Apprentice race. Turned out quickly, she can race off the same mark and must enter calculations, particularly since she has good form over 7f too. 

Light From Mars gets also a chance from the handicapper here, being allowed to race off the same mark as when beaten only on the line at Ffos Las eleven days ago over 6f. Back over 7f now, probably his optimum trip, he shouldn't be too far away yet again. He won of a mark off 80 back in March on the Kempton All-Weather over this trip, couldn't quite follow up on softish ground at Ascot and ran over shorter in three subsequent start, doing not too badly in his penultimate race following up then with the strong most recent performance. The 7lb apprentice in the saddle seems solid and this race poses a challenge he can be successful in. He has previous course form here at Chepstow too - so overall makes most appeal at around 11/2. 

Verdict: This should be between Light From Mars and Sarangoo. It is hard to seperate these two, as both have fine chance from a handicapping as well as form point of view. With conditions in favour too, it seems hard to look beyond and it makes sense to back them both.

Light From Mars @ 11/2 Bet365 - 2pts win

Sarangoo @ 5/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

16.15 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 1m4f - Very tricky and interesting Handicap which provides the fr this time of the year usual clash between some good older horses and improving three year olds. However this race is particularly compelling as the older horses are largely lightly raced and improving sorts. Naturally you would prefer the three year olds though, due to the huge amount of weight they receive due to weight for age. Let's look a bit deeper into this Handicap, examining each runner individually:

Kikonga, 4yo filly, loves quick ground, won over CD last year in impressive style, not so good since then in hotter company, so subsequent runs fair to discount so the latest run on soft. Should better back here in class 3 with conditions to suit and potentially up to mark, but big weight. 

Lady Pimpernel, 4yo filly, good recent form, goes well on quick ground but best form on softer and never won over 12f in four starts. Career best required.

Missed Call, 4o filly, lightly raced, decent comeback run, improved subsequently when stepped up to 12f, clearly stayed trip and relishes fast ground, won maiden well over 10f on fast ground. One paced grinder, and 12f surely suits. Hampered at crucial stage at Chester lto, stayed on very strongly. 2lb up and up in class but more improvement to come over this trip with conditions in favour. 

Nullarboy Sky, 4yo filly, won two on the bounce, loves quick ground and very progressive. 4lb up in the mark for recent win is fair, was entitled to win that day in that field. Needs to improve further, trip on pedigree fine. 

Tioga Pass, 3yo filly, lightly raced and progressive. Won extremely well over 12f at Goodwood lto when 1lb out of the handicap. Hefty rise in the mark by 12lb, chance on the weights but needs to produce this on quick ground now.

Arabian Comet, 3yo filly lightly raced, tries trip for the 1st time, seems fine on pedigree and impression from latest start goes along with this. Won well over mile on quick ground before, up in the mark and needs to improve further, but that is likely over this new trip. 

Cameo Tiara, 3yo, lightly raced, tries new trip, needs to improve dramatically for that to be in with a chance, but nice weight, unsure if 12 is what she wants with loads of speed on dam side. Good claimer on board.

Swan Lakes, 3yo filly, won maiden well over trip and ground. Outstayed rival in tight finish. Low opening mark, chance on weights and improvement likely. But bit to find against some good opposition. 

Verdict: The three year olds have a strong hand in this. Arabian Comet is the favourite and could well be able to exploit her mark on WFO terms. Swan Lakes has a very low mark to play with but has to prove that she is good enough in such a good race. Kikonga has a chance with conditions in favour, but the big weight is still a worry. From the four year olds Missed Call makes clearly most appeal as she seems to be an improver with age, is still lightly raced and gave a strong impression in her latest race when trying the trip for the first time. Se could a good deal better than his current rating of 85 - but has to be as well, in order to win this against good 3yo rivals. She represents the value on balance given his current odds though. --- Missed Call @ 9/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win

16.50 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 6f - Big and competitive sprint Handicap over the straight course. As much as it is competitive, as much it lacks too many obvious chances. You can pick wholes into anyone, and a big priced winner is not unlikely given the fact that a 7yo is heading the market who needs a career best. 

I do fancy the chance of Noble Deed, with Kieron Fallon on board. Noble Deed did surly need his most recent run after a break of five month. Before that he tried the All-Weather during the winter, with not too much success though. He was a progressive sprinter last year however. He won three races and finished the turf season with a 2nd at Ascot over 6f, beaten only by a head. He is down to this mark today and has the quick ground that is vital to him. After all, he must have a better chance than his big price suggests in this field. --- Noble Deed @ 20/1 Betfred - 1pt e/w

-------

We had a disappointing Thursday with our two selections being unsuccessful. Forever Now travelled okay but didn't quite seem to relish the strange underfoot conditions and faded back into third in the end. Sir Guy Porteous ran really well but unfortunately got caught on the line! That is really bitter and quite costly.

Racing Selections: Thursday 10th July 2014

13.40 Newmarket: Bahrain Trophy, Group 3 - It is hard to make a case for most runners in this Group 3 over 1m 5f, starting with Bunker who seems not progressing and has stamina to prove over this trip. Mark Johnston's Hartnell won a Listed race at Ascot recently, however over 2m and has to prove he is speedy enough against some rivals that seem to be better suited to this kind of test. Odeon with first time hood drops in class and steps up slightly in trip, a combination that might see him finding back to form. However it's hard to be too confident about that. Lightly raced Corsican won at the second time of asking a maiden at Kempton. If he is up to this class remains to be seen. Vent De Force is a progressive handicapper, but this is much tougher and the quick ground is a major worry. Honor Bound won the Lingfield Oaks trial, was subsequently found out for class in the actual Epsom Oaks, but should find this easier and has to be taken seriously. So has to be the progressive Windshear who was runner-up in competitive handicaps the last two starts. 

However the most interesting horse in the field is the lightly races John Gosden colt Forever Now. He ran well over course and distance on his seasonal reappearance, which was also his second only start, when he finished close 2nd behind Wonderstruck who finished subsequently not too far beaten in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Forever Now learned from that effort and might light work of his opposition in a subsequent maiden at Doncaster last month. He made virtually all, quickened from 4f out and finished the race in really good style, suggesting he is certainly a pattern winner in the making. with natural improvement, he should have potentially too much for the opposition in this field. --- Forever Now @ 10/3 Paddy Power - 4pts win

19.15 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 9f - This race over 9f is a test that should be dominated by the three year olds. They have an advantage in the weights due to the age allowance and all three have credentials that make them candidates to go close. Desert Society is probably the weakest of the trio, but has a very good apprentice in the saddle. Mindyourownbusiness ran in an ultra competitive handicap at Ascot and is better judged on his fine win at Yarmouth before. He should go close if he can handle track and ground. 

However Sir Guy Porteous makes most appeal of all in the field. He seems a near certainty with the weights extremely in his favour. He won at Carlisle in really fine style, making all from the front and going away easily from the rest of the field in the final furlong. He came well clear of the second, who himself came well clear of the rest. He's turned out soon again, so has to race under the standard 6lb penalty but should in theory up much higher and as soon as the handicappers get their chance, they will put him up much higher. He should be the best horse in this race, has the weights in favour, strong form, no problem with the ground and also should be fine with the trip since his pedigree is stamina ladden - only odd Epsom can stop him. --- Sir Guy Porteous @ 11/4 Bet365 - 5pts win

------

Wednesdays NAP Gang Warfare was extremely keen in the preliminaries of the race, was keen in the  early parts of the race then almost inevitably and was held up a long way off the pace in an impossible position, because it was a huge advantage in this race to be up with the pace. In the end the winner, second and third were all prominent . GW is surely better than that. However he didn't finish too promising and might not have too much in hand after all.

NAP Of The Day: Wednesday 9th July 2014

Gang Warfare

20.50 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 11 furlongs - Thecornishcowboy seems an obvious chance in this race after quite a successful spell in recent weeks, exploiting the handicap system and his low mark. But I feel he has reached his the maximum of what he is capable and there are some other good horses in this field that are capable of improving further and beyond him. Cousin Khee will be in with a big chance for example. He is well treated of his current mark back on the All-Weather. The trip might be a bit short for him though. Artful Rogue is still lightly raced and open for improvement. Hasn't won yet but most recent performance at Goodwood wasn't too bad and off a low mark switched to the All-Weather, he could improve enough to be in with a shout. Little Buxted was beaten at Kempton over 10f back in November only by a very tight margin. He is two pounds lowe in the mark today and the trip will suit. Still more to come and with Queally in the saddle, he's an obvious contender. 

From the two handicap débutantes, Gang Warfare makes certainly most appeal. Tacticus is hard to judge on his first three outings and therefore hard to fancy, but Gang Warfare ticks plenty of boxes now switched to handicaps and particularly stepping up markedly in trip. A 40.000 Guineas yearling, lightly raced with nice pedigree - the surface is a concern, but he showed plenty to like in his maidens over 1 mile, staying on strongly in his last two starts. There is plenty of stamina on his sire side, who can get top class horses up to 12f, and he's out of a Fantastic Light mare who won a Listed race over 12f. On pedigree he should very much relish the extra distance and is quite nicely bread which does suggest that his opening mark of 74 could be extremely lenient. Given that some horses have got opening marks of high eighties for much less, Gang Warfare is an obvious choice in this race and should be hard to beat if all goes smoothly in-running. --- Gang Warfare @ 5/1 William Hill - 4pts win

NAP Of The Day - Tuesday 8th July 2014

16:00 Pontefract: Pipalong Stakes (Listed, 1 mile) - This appears to be an open contest, held at the beautiful racing venue of Pontefract. The Listed Pipalong Stakes over 1m lacks an obvious winning contender, however it could easily become a messy race, considering the fact that Pontefract is a kind of quirky track, and interestingly there seems to be an awful lot of pace in the race, which makes it quite a compelling contest, since the track usually prefers horses ridden close to the pace due to the short run-in. There might be a rough battle for position.

Favourit Pavlosk is still generally lightly raced and wasn't disgraced in Group 3 company at Lingfield back in May. She is back over 1m which should suit, but the ground is some kind of a question mark, since her best form came with cut in the ground. She could well be too good for this lot if she can improve further, but it's hard to be too confident in her either, since it's not given that she does improve. Second favourit Dutch Rose is a seasoned campaigner. She is also consistent and ground independent. She hasn't been able to win over 1m in six starts though, so the trip is an obvious concern. Butterfly Mcqueen is one the most interesting contenders. Her recent performance in a Group 3, where she wasn't too far beaten behind subsequent G1 winner Thistle Bird, appears to be decent enough and she might well have still a bit improvement left, now as a four year old. She has won over 1m as well as on quick ground. Question is if the combination of track, trip and ground is really what she wants. Masarah is next best in the betting but she has won only one of her 17 starts on turf and it's hard to see her getting her head in front in this competitive race. The rest of the betting market is 10/1 bar. Which means there should be a bit of value available since the head of the market is hard to fancy given their rather short prices.

I do think it could be worth to give someone a chance who stays a bit further than 1m, given the conditions of this race. And that could make Boonga Roogeta a worthy contender. Normally she seems slightly below what is required to be really competitive in a Listed race, but while this years Pipalong Stakes are competitive in its own right, it is probably not really a particularly strong races in terms of its status as a Listed race. That is where Boonga Roogeta comes into the equation. She is a multiple winner of competitive handicaps ranging in distance from one mile to ten furlongs. It is hard to argue against the fact that she is better the further she goes. However she won some good races over 9f and she loves fast ground. She also prefers to go from the front, and while there is plenty of pace on here plus the fact that she has to overcome a wide draw, I have no doubt that she'll be right up with the pace. She can fight for position and has gate speed. It should be a really quick race with emphasis on stamina, and that would suit her. She also usually does quite well at this kind of quirky, undulating tracks. She won in May on seasonal debut a small handicap at Brighton, couldn't quite follow up when she went too quick in her most recent start. Putting it all together, I feel she has the ability to go close here and conditions that should see her clearly involved in a finish which could be quite messy. 

Selection: Boonga Roogeta @ 22/1 Betfair - 1pt e/w

-----------

Mondays NAP finished a close 2nd. Jazz travelled strongly approaching the 2f marker and took up the lead 1f out, looking like the winner, but then didn't quite get home when the eventual winner put on the pressure staying on strongly.

NAP Of The Day - Monday 7th July 2014

15.30 Ayr - Jazz @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win: Competitive 7f handicap in its own right with some decent horses in the line-up. However I feel the 3yo colt Jazz has a very fine chance to finally win in handicap company for the first time. He seems already a bit exposed with 14 starts to his name, however the 7f trip is quite unknown territory. In his only start over this distance came in a pretty strong class handicap where he finished good third against some excellent opposition. On that evidence it is hard to say if he really gets the trip, but on pedigree he certainly has every chance to stay that far and in fact pull out some further improvement. At Doncaster over 6f lto he was quite unlucky in my mind, when he didn't get a run at a crucial stage of the race, and he lost position as a result, however once getting out, he finished the race very well under hands and heels, suggesting that a step up in trip is very much what he wants. Considering that he is the highest rated horse in this field, with potentially more to come, he must be extremely well weighted and with his trainer having a fine record at Ayr, I firmly believe that, he is the horse to beat. 

Main danger could be Order Of Service, who won nicely over 7f on his penultimate start and was just caught in the dying moments of the race at Ayr today, over 1m. He'll apreciate the drop in trip and can race off the same mark. However he steps up in class and had a two fairly hard races in quick succession already, this tomorrow could be potentially too much. with that in mind, Jazz is a confident selection to win this race.

--------------------

Sundays NAP Due And Payable won nicely for us at 4/1. He trailed the field under a patient ride and when the false rail opened up vital space, he took his chance and quickened nicely. Only hands and heels were required to steer him to an easy success. 

SEA THE MOON slaughters opposition in German Derby

WOW! Did you see that? What an unbelievable performance from Sea The Moon! From the front, he set a quick pace, did then hang badly around the home turn and gave an awful lot of ground away, yet wins by as far as he likes hands and heels with the jockey celebration half a furlong out! I tell you what, this is the horse that could beat Australia. He is now best priced 10/1 for the Arc in October. 

German Derby - Betting Preview

16.05 Hamburg - German Derby: Twenty starts in this years German Derby - I can imagine that it will be messy! Some really good horses in the line-up though. Aiden O'Brien brings over Geoffrey Chaucer, who was so disappointing at Epsom, but is clearly better than that. With Ryan Moore in the saddle, he has obvious credentials to win this, however his wide draw doesn't make life easy. Hot favourit is the Sea The Stars son Sea The Moon. He is a multiple Group 3 winner, lightly raced, won his last start in good style, and should relish the additional furlong. Clearly the horse they all have to beat, Soumillion booked for the ride, if he gets a clear run, he'll be hard to stop. Wide draw is a concern and if he can get a clear run. Maybe he tried to get to the front though, then he can eliminate this danger. I think he'll win, but can't have him for short 15/8 and think there is better value to find. Impressive Bavarian Classic winner Magic Artist is an obvious danger on paper. His success in the Group 2 at Munich was visually exciting, but I doubt that he has the stamina to win this today. 

Wild Chief finished a very unlucky 4th in the French Derby. He was several times hampered, didn't get a clear run for a very long time, yet finished the race very well. He'll be happy with the additional furlong and has a really good chance to finish in the money. Godolphin's Pinzolo faild to act at Epsom, but is a good animal and is not without a chance. I'm not sure if he is up to this class though and pass him for that reason. Lucky Lion won two Group races this year already. He is an obvious contender for that reason. However he steps up markedly in trip and that must be a concern. The only filly in the race, Weltmacht, with Tom Queally in the saddle makes some appeal over the trip. She finished a good 2nd in a strong Group race last time out, but I feel this is a tough task and the brave move by connections to go for the Derby might well pay off in some decent prize money for a placed effort, but more is hard to see from my point of view. 

Speedy Approach will be ridden by Germany's top jockey Eddy Pedroza. He is not as lightly raced as others, but completely unexposed over the Derby distance. He finished an unlucky 2nd in the Bavarian Classic last time out, when travelled nicely but got short of room and hampered multiple times. He stayed on nicely in 2nd nonetheless. His pedigree is pointing clearly to the Derby trip and he should relish the additional 2 furlongs. By a Derby 12f, out of a mediocre mare who was best over long trips though, who herself is out of a Derby winner though. Amazonit won a Listed Derby trial at Bremen recently and looked excellent that day. He was outpaced 300m out and took a while to hit top gear, also didn't quite a clear run, but once he found his stride and got out on the wide outside, he was always going to win. He should improve for the trip I suspect. 

Verdict: Sea The Moon is the one to beat. If he gets a clear run, it is hard to see him not ending up in the winners enclosure. Behind him there are many possibilities though, and in this big field in-running luck becomes vital. Both Amazonit and Speedy Approach should relish the new trip, have some nice recent form to offer and have good jockeys booked for the ride. For big prices they make appeal on that evidence to me. 

Speedy Approach @ 33/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts win

Amazonit @ 40/1 Betfair - 0.5pts win

NAP Of The Day: Sunday 6th July 2014

14.45 Turffontein - MR 83 Handicap (1.450m): Wide open race. Lightly raced 3yo Max The Man is going to post as warm favourite following two nice wins in maiden company and subsequently on handicap debut. He's got punished with the maximum penalty and has 58kg to shoulder which is an awful lot for 3yo against seasoned older horses. However there is chance that he is better than his current mark and for all of that he looked smart lto, so a bold show is expected. Nonetheless he's to short in the betting given the huge weight. De Kock's Honey Bun might be better than what we have seen so far from her. She is lightly raced and can still improve, but she has to do so to be competitive Over the 1450m trip with decent weight in an easier race I give her a chance but against the boys it is still a tough task. The three key older horses should be the two course specialists Havana Beat Quad Bay as well as Due and Payable. Havana Beat did beat these two rivals earlier this year, but is much worse in the weights today. Quad Bay won of higher than his current mark in the past and with his course record given he is a real danger, but on the weights Due And Payable has a massive chance if he runs to form. He was 1/4 of a lengths beaten by Havana Beat back in March over course and distance, but that day with a big weight and has a 2kg swing in his favour today. He won off a higher mark in the past and comes into this race fresh after a really good effort at Vaal lto when he had a wide draw to overcome. Blinkers on for the first time today might bring out bit of improvement, the 2.5kg weight allowance by the apprentice jockey on board will help too. Draw is not quite ideal, and 1.450m might stretch his stamina slightly, but for all he has a huge chance. 

Verdict: If Max The Man is pattern class he'll win this. But then he has to be that good I feel in order to overcome his tough task assigned by the handicapper against older horses. From the older horses Due And Payable makes most appeal with weights in his favour, good collateral form and first time blinkers. --- Due And Payable @ 4/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win

REVIEW - What happened in the Durban July?

Opinions are divided about the end result for obvious reasons. People are in the camp of either the winner, Legislate, stating the result was altered for good reason. Others are in the camp of Wylie Hall, who won the actual race, and many argue, would have won even without interference. If you had a bet on WH, or if you're connected to the horse, you will feel hard done by considering the horse seemed to kept finding and didn't let Legislate pass him. From a neutral perspective, this result wouldn't have been changed in the UK I would imagine, but there are different rules in South Africa, and for that it was probably a correct decision. 

The severity of the actual interference becomes not obvious in the video above, but only really in a certain head-on close up: This one. There you can see that initially Legislate is shifting towards WH, however this happened behind the back of him and didn't have any impact. Then Legislate tries to pass but WH is fighting back, however is hanging to the left side, carrying Legislate over towards the stands rail. Horses touch each other around three to four times, there are at least two severe bumps from WH towards Legislate, which have probably affected his stride. Also WH was drifting further and further to the left. I suppose this case can be compared to the Elusive Kate/Sky Lantern race in the Falmouth last year. In the end, talking about the 2014 July, the result was very tight and impacted by Wylie Hall's interference, and therefore altered. That seems harsh, and If I would have backed WH, I would feel depleted, for sure. On the other hand, it is the correct decision after all in my mind, because the interference prevented Legislate from running straight and striding out properly. On a side-note: Having backed Legislate, I'm more than happy with it, for obvious reasons... 

What else? Well, we have to talk about pace. This was a big topic before the race and one of the reasons why I included two intended prominent runner in my betting (see preview). However I think nobody thought things would pan out the way it effectively did. There was for most parts of the race no pace on whatsoever. Jockeys on fancied horsed were caught napping. Anton Marcus on Rake's Chestnut, Kevin Shea on favourite Louis The King - they were heavily complaining afterwards, yet they didn't do anything against it when they could have done so. Sitting in rear, no movement - they are so experienced and should have known better. They had never any chance from their position in the race eventually. And here it is where you have to give credit to the jockeys of the first and second - particularly Richard Fourie on Legislate. He was prepared for this situation. Usually Legislate finishes from off the pace. But this time, despite the wide draw, Fourie steered his mount straight to the front of the race, was even leading for a while as long as nobody else wanted to take it up. That's why he was in the right position when it mattered, so was Wylie Hall. 

Futura stayed on strongly, was racing in midfield, around seven lengths off the pace for most parts of the race and the way he finished was really impressive. He was the hype horse and he has delivered in excellent manner. He is a Grade 1 winner in the making. Tellina, who was thought to dislike this track, was closer to the pace than usual, and it paid off. Outpaced when the race unfolded, he stayed on in fourth. I always though he looks more like a stayer and I believe with a positive ride, over 12f at Turffontain for example, he could be a Grade 1 winner. De Kock's Espumanti was backed heavily before the off and had a good position in the race, however was fighting early with her jockey and burned valuable energy. She lost the race in those early moments. Halve The Deficit had every chance, but seemed to find the additional furlong too far as he lost his place in the money in the closing stages. In The Fast Lane travelled extremely well and finished strongly. She was too far off the pace though. Yet an encouraging performance against the boys for the best 3yo filly in South Africa. Captain America was fighting as always with his jockey, he almost came down when he stumbled early on. I suspect he might gelded now and will race over shorter in the future. Louis The King and Rake's Chestnut had no chance whatsoever. Finishing wide turning home almost last, was just an impossible task. 

So what remains from this race: A controversial result in South Africa's richest and greatest race. A result altered for the first time in history. The best 3yo in the county, declared as the winner in the stewards room. Legislate will be campaigned with the Queen's Plate and the J&B Met in mind for next season, he'll gothen into quarantine for a campaign in Dubai, if all goes well. I think if he stays sound, he'll have a big future. This horse won this year a Guineas, the Cape Derby, the Daily News and now the July. Just astonishing!