19.45 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 1f
Opera Box: Decent recent run over CD in better class, not quite clear run from well off the pace. On fair mark and this easier, so should be thereabouts.
Masterpraver: Progressive and strong runner-up when last seen over CD, form works out really well, but up five pounds for it and needs to improve again.
Rosie Probert: Made a name for herself over hurdles, won maiden at Epsom last summer, not seen since December and hard to know what to expect.
Daaree: Generally lightly raced, won 12f Handicap at Wolverhampton lto, looked to have still bit in hand when staying on strongly. Not impossible to improve further, despite 5lb up. Might be found out for speed over this trip.
Marzante: Good return to racing after long lay off when only narrowly denied at Epsom. Travelled really well and may be able to improve from there. 3Lb up but was higher rated earlier in career. Big question mark is the trip. Not entitled to stay on pedigree and never tried before.
Kastini: Never won on the All-Weather but has some decent performance to his name. Won over 11f in the past. Looked well held on recent mark over CD a fortnight ago. Even though travelled wide throughout and with more energy conserving ride may finish closer.
Collaboration: Not quite clear run lto but seemed to run out of steam late when in the clear. On high enough mark at the moment. Should be okay over trip and one from one on the All-Weather. Taking on the older horses may suit with WFO allowance.
Topamichi: Progressive last year, poor showings this season. Slightly further trip may suit and down to more realistic mark, but needs to find sparkle again on first All-Weather start.
Verdict: This seems a rather open contest, due to the fact that no horse is sticking out as a really obvious contender. It is easy to see why Opera Box is the favourite, though. She has the best form to offer as her 4th place in a hot class 3 Handicap is in fact a very decent piece of form. Dropping in class, she has a good chance to go very close if she can repeat to run to that sort of level. On the other hand, she is not the most consistent animal, and she appears to be only a fair price in my mind. From the others, I would like to think that Collaboration could be in for a good run, taking his recent decent performance into account as well as the fact that the WFO allowance counts for him. Otherwise, Kastini for a big price might be rather interesting, but of course is none to put too much faith in. That leaves - more or less - the Godolphin runner as the most interesting choice. Daaree looked an improving juvenile when he won a Wolverhampton Handicap in taking style back in September 2012. He was off for almost two years subsequently, but has improved with each run since being back. His Yarmouth run is a good piece of form, when he was found out for speed in the closing stages however. His most recent success at Wolverhampton over 12f was quite a decent performance then. He didn't have quite the run of the race, but looked always to get there once in the clear approaching the home straight. Five pounds up for that is more than fair and he could still be improving a bit. Whether the slight drop in trip suits, is another question. But I'd like to see him handily ridden, as he did in his 2yo career. I feel that of his current mark, he could have then too much to offer in this field.
Daaree @ 10/3 VC – 4pts win
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