PREVIEW: Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2)

15.25 Turffontein: Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2), 1.450m 

Interesting race that evolves around the three horses at the top of the market. Experienced No Worries performs often well enough in Graded company and was quite well in form in recent weeks. His 3rd behind Futura in the Champions Cup rates a big performance, however he was slightly disappointing last time out, dropping in class into Pinnacle Stakes with conditions in his favour, when he missed the break and finished only 3rd in the end, while being the class act. He'll have his way up on front most likely today and that could be a big advantage, but after all his overall record is not all that impressive and I'll take him on for that reason. Midnight Run is another one well fancied. He is a super consistent horse, never been out of the money. He tries the trip for the first time and that is a worry. Not sure he really stays it, even though a slow pace would help him of course. But if he is quite up to Grade 2 level remains to be seen. But then, this is a perfect chance to put doubts aside. Snowden goes well at this course and distance, so he is in with a chance. He is very consistent and will run his race. 

But all of them are well exposed, which brings me to Rake's Chestnut. He is the lightly raced sort in this race, and he is classy. He won only on debut a maiden over 1.400m so far, but has big performances to his name. He finished agonizingly close in the Group 1 Daily News, when he had an interrupted run but finished off like a train once finding back his stride and almost got up late to beat subsequent Durban July and South African horse of the year Legislate. Without a doubt that is the stand out performance in this field, even though it came over 2.000m. Drop in trip shouldn't be too much of an issue. Rake's Chestnut was slightly disappointing when well fancied in the Durban July, but finished well beaten. Excused can be made as he was extremely keen in a slowly run race, was hampered early on and lost position, and had no chance from the position he came from. A break since, and sure he won't be 100% today, bigger targets are waiting. But he should be fit enough to beat this sold, but far from top class opposition today. He gets half a kilo from the other fancied runners, and that should be an advantage. 

Rake's Chestnut @ 2/1 Bet365 - 4pts win