20.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f
History Book: Very keen and hanging around home turn when last seen at Kempton. Rather progressive before on turf. Won maiden over course and distance in winter last year and better expected this time.
Oddysey: All-Weather debut, strong performance at Pontefract earlier this month, but up in mark again and doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Not sure trip suits either.
Waveguide: Progressive on the All-Weather this winter, didn't stop improving on turf in summer month either. Not so good in latest, but raced in better class. Back on AW now. Likely up with pace.
Polar Eyes: All-Weather debut, by top class AW sire who has excellent Tapeta record. Not too many miles on the clock, even though didn't appear to have anything in hand on turf. Slight drop in trip might suit.
Water Queen: Lightly raced, won maiden in tight finish over 7f recently. Step up in trip to suit on pedigree. All-Weather debut. More required here but open to improvement.
Fruit Pastille: Won very nicely with first time blinkers at Lingfield over 1m when prominently ridden. New career best required and this a hotter race but step up in trip could bring out further improvement.
Outbacker: Better over All-Weather but has to bounce back and trip is a big worry.
Brisk: Won maiden at fourth time asking over 7f recently, strongly staying on to get up in the end. Step up in trip very likely to suit, nicely bred out of G3 winning mare. If she takes to the AW, she'll be a big runner. Potentially lenient opening mark.
Dalmarella Dancer: Southwell maiden winner ,not disgraced in last starts, drops in mark again but need to find a bit more to be competitive here.
Verdict: Open enough looking contest with some promising sorts. The race looks likely to be dominated by the three year olds and Fruit Pastille appears to be a solid favourite after winning well in first time blinkers. She has to improve and defy a new mark but may be able to do so over the new trip. Water Queen was a fine maiden winner recently and may have more to offer now upped in trip from a fair opening mark. Polar Eyes looks exposed on turf but the switch to All-Weather could be a fruitful one. She has top class pedigree credentials for synthetics. Recent maiden winner Brisk looks by far the most interesting runner though. She is extremely well bred, and was impressive when staying on strongly over sharp 7f to win cosily eventually, eleven days ago. She shoud have much more to offer over the further trip and her opening mark looks lenient, if she can take to the surface, which is the only concern. But that is a risk worth to take considering her huge price. From the older generation, History Book is expected to do much better then when seen last time. She was awkward and not right that day at Kempton. Waveguide is very decent runner who should be thereabouts, but giving weight away to talented young horses might a tough task.
Brisk @ 12/1 Bet365 – 2pts win
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