PREVIEW: Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

14.40 Ascot: Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3), 1m 4f

Energia Fribby winning in Brazil

Pether's Moon: Big win in Turkey recently, consistently well throughout season against top class opposition. Ground independent. Sets very high standard. But gives also weight away.

Parsh Hall: Up in trip, first time over 12f. Chance on pedigree cause out of Montjeu mare. Needs quick ground to be seen at his best, rain at Ascot counts against him. Won G3 at the Curragh earlier this year.

Don't Stare: Progressive handicapper, looked potentially smart when winning conditions stakes at Doncaster in impressive style. Step up in trip, chance to stay on pedigree, though not entirely likely to suit. Obvious question is if he is good enough to compete on this level. Markedly step up in class and much more required today.  

Encke: Seem to be as good as ever. Good third in Irish St. Leger when last seen. Drops in class today. Collateral form with Pether's Moon when runner-up behind him at Goodwood. Fair and square beaten that day but was only back after long break. Gets plenty of weight from PM today and with that chance to turn form around. Trip potentially on sharp side. Rain not quite sure to suit.

Energia Fribby: A prolific Group 1 winner in her native Brazil. Made an excellent UK debut with Listed success at Chester. Travelled very strongly and made smart move on outside from over 3f out. Best form with cut in ground so any additional drop of rain would suit. Needs to take form to new level though, as this today is tougher. Gets plenty of weight from more fancied rivals.

Verdict: Encke has a good chance to turn things around with Pether's Moon as there is quite some swing in the weights. The former St. Leger winner seems to have retained his ability after a long break and followed up on his good comeback run, with a strong third in the Irish St. Leger. He's short enough in the market though, and this drop in trip with cut in the ground might not entirely suit him. Peather's Moon with his recent top run in Turkey sets the standard, he'll be happy on the ground and should go very close once again. He might find things a bit tough giving weight away, though. Parish Hall isn't one to trust on ground that is likely to come up soft. Don't Stare showed potential, but it remains to be seen if he is good enough here. Leaves us with Brazilian filly Energia Fribby. A multiple Group winner in her native country, including a Group 1 over 12f on softish ground. She'll relish any additional drop of rain today and she looked very promising on her recent UK debut run at Chester when she won quite nicely in Listed company. This is tougher today. But she might still be able to be a bit better and has a chance to run big from bottom of the weights today. I consider the prices available for her, as too big.

Energia Fribby @ 5/1 Bet365 – 3pts win