Today wasn't the day for Bobbyscot, but keep an eye on him, he's poised to win in my mind. He didn't really was asked to many questions, he ran on a bit in the closing stages though, but didn't have a chance from well off the pace in a slowly run race anyway.
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| Epsom Festival is kicks off on Friday. The Oaks on Friday, the Derby on Saturday... |
15.20 Epsom: Hefner @ 8/1 Boylesports - 2pts win
I thought Hefner ran a huge race at Chester recently. He had the 2nd widest draw to overcome, had to settle in rear of the field, what is never an advantage at this track. He struggled with the pace from 4f out but kept going and made loads of ground on the outside finishing very strongly in the closing stages and landed even the 3rd place eventually. I thought that day, at a different track, with a better draw and a further trip he'd be very dangerous. He looks to have improved from 3 to 4 again and now trained by Botti he has every chance to be well capable of winning of his current mark. He's well drawn tomorrow and the 9f trip should be in his favour, so even in this competitive looking race I feel he has an excellent chance.
16.00 Epsom: Say @ 16/1 Betfair - 1pt win
I always liked Moth, I said this straight after her maiden win, which I saw with my own eyes at the Curragh that she's potentially a really, really smart filly. Not everyone believed me at that time, but her performance in the Guineas clearly backed the suggestion. I fancy her strongly for the Oaks, with the longer trip in her favour, but I can't have her for the short price in a race that looks wide open. The price is drifting into a direction I rather like now, but still it's too short and I feel her stable companion Say is underestimated. She looks a big price and is the value in this race in my mind. She made big impressions on all her three starts in her career and improved nicely from 2 to 3. It's interesting that she made her debut in the same race at Navan last year as Moth did and both finished fifth and sixth that day while Say looked actually the better prospect after having loads to do in the home straight staying on nicely in the closing stages though. She was put away after that an re-appeared at Leopardstown in April this year again in a Maiden over 10f. The sprint finish clearly didn't suit her that day and it took her a while to find another gear but she stayed on really strongly and beat the eventual winner a few strides after the line. She got then finally off the mark three weeks ago at Cork. A really poor maiden, she was a short favourite and entitled to win it easily. She did so in the end on gruelling ground in really impressive fashion however. She travelled always strongly in a prominent position and kicked easily away from the rest of the field in a matter of strides. it's a big step up from a poor maiden at Cork right into Group 1 class in the Oaks, of course, but she's lovely bred, bred to do exactly this job over this distance, and I think she is a bit of an unknown quantity here tomorrow, which makes her really interesting for the price though as she is bound to improve.
18.35 Goodwood: Short Squeeze @ 4/1 Paddy Power - 3pt win
Short Squeeze looks to have conditions in favour here tomorrow and should be hard to beat following a very strong performance at Nottingham three weeks ago. He travelled like a dream in rear that day, made lovely progress from 3f out on the inside, going much the strongest, but was slightly short of room and had to wait until he could get into the clear. The eventual winner had first run from the front and was already in top gear, which made it difficult for Short Squeeze to respond immediately. He couldn't live up to the speed of the winner in the end but came still a long way clear of the third. Step up in trip tomorrow looks perfectly fine now, and he goes definitely in the right direction, after his first start this year, also his handicap debut, at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago, was rather a strange performance. He dwelt at the start, pulled really hard then, was very green, pulled his way up to the front, turned very wide for home as he was hanging badly, but ran still well, just tired in the final furlong. So after all he looks to have a bit of ability and might be too good for this lot in this race tomorrow.
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