Betting - Monday 1st December 2014

15.30 Wolverhampton: Handicap (Class 3, 2m 119y)

Cousin Khee: Narrowly denied over 2m at Shouthwell lto, multiple NHF 2m winner on polytrack. Good deal above last winning mark due to good placed efforts.

Buckland: Prolific AW performer, much improved last year and ran well in defeat on couple of occasions this season. Once runner-up over 2m off 96. Runner-up at Kempton lto, though fair and square beaten – this is easier and should go well.

Dame Lucy: Improved middle-distance runner this year, though disappointing when last seen. First start on AW may work but trip is big question mark.

Entihaa: Consistent stayer who find winning difficult. Landed Handicap at York in September, not so good last two. Needs to find improvement for AW debut and looks not particularly well handicapped.

Hidden Justice: Fair multi-purpose performer, will surly get the trip and goes well on AW. Two big performances in October after coming back from break. Should go well.

Mister Bob: Improving low-grade stayer. Has loads to find on ratings. Low weight can help.

Uncle Bernie: Rapidly improving this year over staying trips. Won three of last four and 3/3 over CD. Very impressive lto and despite having a bit to find on ratings, he can go really close if he improves again. Turned out quickly under a penalty, he's given a good chance. 

Verdict: The two improvers at the bottom of the weights are heading the market and surly have a sexy profile. Uncle Bernie in particular seems to love it around Wolverhampton and is bound for a big performance turned out quickly under a penalty. I'm not so sure about Mister Bob who may have the improvement in him it takes in this hot contest, but he is way to short in my mind. Hidden Justice is very interesting runner on AW debut. Doing well lately, he'll get the trip and is on a fair mark. But on the other hand his sire's offspring didn't seem to perform particularly well on Tapeta in the past, and he looks nothing more than a fair price to me. Cousin Khee is a very good horse on his day, though he seems high enough in the mark at the moment. However Buckland looks a rather big price given how well he did in some really hot staying races this year. He hasn't won over 2m yet but has been placed and gone close in the majority of his starts over this trip and finished a close runner-up of a mark off 96 in an extremely competitive handicap last season. He may not be that good after all this year, but his 2nd in a strong race over 2m at Kempton a fortnight ago is the best form on offer in this field. Todays race looks easier on paper, and that must gibe Buckland a fine shot to go close. Obviously the trip may stretch him but there seems not to be too much pace on here, so that should help. 

Buckland @ 5/1 VC - 5pts win

Betting: Saturday 29th November 2014

19.45 Wolverhampton: Handicap (12f, Class 3)

Esteaming: Tailed off in November Handicap, fair form over the summer without winning, career highest required on first AW career start. Good chance to take to surface on pedigree.

The Lock Master: CD winner but disappointing last four starts since winning at Southwell.

Uramazin: Poor form on return after break earlier this month and poor in handful of starts since good 2nd in hot Kempton Handicap. Never won over 12f and AW. Age may catch up.

Aladdins Cave: Veteran on good mark judged on old form, fine AW record over 12f. Below par in last two runs on Dundalk All-Weather.

Personal Opinion: Two from two on the AW, still lightly raced. Poor on turf this summer. Needs to prove he is up to current mark, but return to All-Weather sure to suit.

Art Scholar: Okay form in last number of starts without coming close to win. Up in trip should suit but looks not particularly well handicapped at the moment.

Vivat Rex: Won good maiden for Aiden O’Brien at Galway this year. Found out in subsequent Listed race and long way beaten for new yard in Listed race earlier this month. Looks lazy type but lightly raced and opening mark fair.

Cerutty: Lightly raced CD maiden winner earlier this month, very taking performance and third in Kempton maiden behind Kalaatah (subsequent fourth in Listed race) looks very good form. Mark could be lenient. 

Verdict: Not too many seem to have a realistic chance to go close. Godolphin's Personal Opinion proves popular in the betting given that the yard is in form and that he loves it here at Wolverhampton. He sure should improve from his last poor showings on turf, but neither his current handicap mark nor his price look generous. Cerutty is a very interesting runner. I fancy him to run a big race after broke his maiden tag over CD recently, with the runner-up a subsequent winner. Cerutty's performance on his subsequent start when third behind exciting Kalaatah rates a big one too and it is possible that an opening mark of 82 is lenient. For all, this is much tougher today nonetheless and he looks only a fair price to me. Vivat Rex may improve from his UK debut now going handicapping, but I like to see something from him before it is possible to judge properly. Top weight Esteaming looks overpriced though. A career highest is expected, but his form this year was pretty consistent and good in tough Handicaps bar when a long way beaten in the November handicap recently. A switch to the All-Weather is interesting and on pedigree should very much suit. If it can bring out a bit improvement, he'll go very close. Worry is obviously the weight he has to give away.

Esteaming @ 5/1 Coral - 5pts win

Betting: Friday 28th November 2014

18.10 Dundalk: Handicap (5f, 3YO plus)

Sylvan Mist: CD winner in January of 2lb lower, good fifth in big Curragh Handicap in September, found out for class in listed race last month here. This more realistic and entitled to go close. 

Strategic Heights: Goes well at this track, last win off 4lb lower but placed off higher. Fair 4th in close finish, having loads to do from the back of the field. Drop to 5f should suit and competitive here.

Canon Law: Irish debut, didn’t set world alight in UK. Drop to 5f not sure to suit.

National Service: Won poor 5f maiden at Kempton last, followed with close defeat of mark off 70 on Nursery debut. Rather lost his way since and badly outpaced over 5f last month at Lingfield.

Danz Gift: Lightly raced, finished eye-catchingly three weeks ago on handicap debut when slowly into stride and loads to do turning for home. More to come and chance of same, but needs to improve in this field.

Majestic Timeline: Goes well this track. Won off 3lb lower last winter. Disappointing last three starts but may come on for recent outing after break. On realistic mark.

Speed Dream: Veteran who has never won on AW but fair 4th here over CD lto. Chance to go well from bottom weight. 

Verdict: Top weight Sylvan Mist found life tough in a CD Listed race but her performances before should ensure that she has a big shot in this race, given that she is down to a handy mark and goes usually very well at this track. She was a good deal beaten by current favourite Strategic Heights back in February, but a 11lb swing in the weights should help to turn the table. The latter one rates a big danger nonetheless. Strategic Heights finished a close 4th recently and the drop in trip is sure to suit today. He had loads to do the last time and if he is in striking distance turning for home this time, he'll be a major contender. Lightly raced Danz Gift has obvious claims after a promising handicap debut. She has to start better though and needs to improve a bit against some tougher rivals. But she looks progressive and should run well. Majestic Timeline is not to underestimate. She will come on for her recent run after a break and she is down on a fair mark. Speed Dream should run his race but needs to have things fall absolutely right for him to win in this field. Canon Law and National Service have loads to do on form and ratings. That says the 4/1 for Sylvan Mist appear too big in the field.

Sylvan Mist @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts win

Betting: Thursday 26th November 2014

18.25 Kempton: Nursery (Class 2) 

Muradif: Top rated, progressive and good form since winning a Nursery off 9lb lower over CD. Followed up with strong 2nd, and fair performances last two. Should appreciate drop in trip & cheek-pieces may help to focus better. But bit more required to overcome current mark.

Vegas Rebel: Very progressive in recent week. Won at Brighton, beaten by narrow margins last two, including seven days ago over CD. Quickly turned out again and can race off same mark. Obvious chance.

Colour Party: Easy maiden winner over 7f at Wolverhampton fortnight ago following up on fine runner-up in hot Newmarket maiden. Lightly raced, Handicap debut. Fair mark and more to come.

Them And Us: Lightly raced winner on racecourse debut, not entirely disgraced in hot Doncaster Nursery. Chance if takes to All-Weather.

Zaza Zest: Improved for step up in trip and slower Southwell surface when landing poor maiden a fortnight ago. Much more required here and not exactly an exciting AW pedigree.

Cascading Stars: Runner-up last three starts over 7-8f. Seems in grip of handicapper and good deal of improvement required against much tougher opposition.

Almoqatel: Debut for new yard, won CD claimer in September. Very hard to fancy on Handicap form. 

Verdict: This is a really interesting Nursery which can go either way. The only won to oppose easily are the two lowest rated individuals. They should find this here way too tough. Favourite Colour Party looks a nicely progressive sort. She was a fine 2nd in a hot Newmarket maiden and broke the tag with an impressive perfomance at Wolverhampton. The merit of that particular form is questionable, but her opening mark is fair and she is open to any kind of improvement. Her current price looks fair but nothing else though. Muradif is sure to appreciate the drop in trip. He ran with credit the last two but found the trip to far. He is a CD winner but on balance he doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Vegas Rebel's close second in a hot class 3 Nursery at Newbury is probably the stand out piece of form in this field. He was agonisingly defeated by a tight margin subsequently at Kempton again, but going off the same mark here tonight, he must rate a very good chance to be right there when it matters. He looks overpriced at 11/2. Them And Us could be an interesting runner if he takes to the All-Weather. A winner on debut and not disgraced in a hot race subsequently, he may be open to more improvement and he is getting backed off the boards at the moment. Zaza Zest is another one who may have still more to offer, even though the merit of her recent Southwell win is questionable and the switch back to polytrack not sure to suit. 

Vegas Rebel @ 11/2 VC - 5pts win

Betting: Wednesday 26th November 2014

Result from the 2.35 Lingfield: Lyn Valley 2nd, Dominandros 3rd. Favourite won it from the front. 

---------

19.30 Dundalk: Conditions Stakes (3yo+) 

Akasaka: Multiple course and distance winner. Beaten in 7f claimer under very favourable conditions. First start for new yard now.

Dolce N Karama: Once 4th behind Kingston Hill in Racing Post Throphy. Not fulfilling promise subsequently, still a maiden but gutsy runner-up in 10f Leopardstown Handicap last month. Drop in trip not sure to suit.

Camakasi: Broke maiden tag with impressive success over CD earlier this month. Strengths of that form a question mark though. Looks improving and more to come.

Doc Holliday: CD winner and excellent form in recent weeks, winner of big Curragh handicap, followed up with another strong performance in hot race. Bit to do on weights probably and trip slight concern.

Artistic Integrity: Good winner of 7f Handicap at Gowran Park this summer, followed up with third at Leopardstown. Disappointed when last seen. Hast to prove stamina. 

Verdict: Wide open race and you can pick holes into the credentials of each and every individual. Probably the one that is easiest to rule out is Artistic Integrity who does look up against it and unlikely to stay the trip. Recent maiden winner Camakasi heads the market currently and looks a solid chance, given the visual impressive performance lto. It is a concern that it took him eleven races to win, though, and the form of the maiden looks pretty poor, so it is debatable what is really worth and today will be a much better indicator. Aksaka's track record is excellent but on form he is opposable and it is a major worry that he wasn't able to win a claimer over CD which he was entitled to win on ratings and weights lto. The change of yard might help though. Dolce N Karama once promising 2yo career hasn't concluded in a progressive classic season and while he has done better lately in handicaps, the drop in trip is a real worry as he looks more of a stayer than a miler. However if he gets an easy lead up on front, it is not impossible that he can outstay his rivals. Doc Holliday may has to give weight away to the three year olds and doesn't appear to be well weighted, but on form he is the best horse in the race. He was an impressive winner of a low grade handicap at the Curragh over 7f this summer, clearly having loads in hand. And he followed up with a strong performance in a hot Curragh Handicap over 1m where he didn't have things going quite his way. This rates a very strong piece of form in my mind and the only slight concern is that the trip here today could stretch his stamina. He has won over 1m before, but I suspect his optimum is 7f. Nonetheless, he rates a big chance in this field and looks overpriced against the other runners. 

Doc Holliday @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts win

Betting: Wednesday, 26th November 2014

14.35 Lingfield: Handicap (Class 2)

Viewpoint: CD Winner, Last career win came over 12f here. Not a particularly good summer in big handicaps over the summer. Back on the AW will help, but on a high enough mark.

Castilo Del Diablo: Course winner over 12f, excelled on the AW over further in spring. Not seen since April. Trip probably too sharp and will come on for run.

Maverick Wave: Well bred & generally lightly raced, 3rd in hot Handicap over 9,5f at Wolverhampton. Talented and more to come but concern over trip and stamina up to 10f now.

Energia Fox: Brazilian import. Second in G1 earlier this year back home. Two 3rd places in Listed company since racing in UK. Surface unknown and might be better suited to further.

Lyn Valley: Decent handicapper, won Doncaster class 2 in July, disappointing in two most recent start. Little break. AW debut. Should be well suited on pedigree but career highest required.

Dominandros: Won twice in France this year, including maiden on AW. Not disgraced when 5th in hot AW conditions stakes over 1m at Chantilly last month. Return to 10f may suit. 

Verdict: I was very sweet on Maverick Wave the last time he was seen at Wolverhampton. He was backed off the boards that day - exactly the same happening this morning - but I felt he was rather disappointing the way he finished the race, having it on his mercy turning for home. My concern back then was that he may not quite stay the trip, which was what happened. He goes up an additional half furlong today. While it is not impossible that he finds the required improvement given that he is well bred and lightly raced, I find it hard to have enough confidence to back him for a very short price. However in this small field, the pace might be not as relentless as the last time, which should suit him. Nonetheless, 5/4 seems way too short. The Brazilian import Energia Fox is a very interesting runner if she is able to handle the All-Weather. She looks talented enough and is potentially on a very fair mark. The trip might be a bit too sharp though, and on pedigree I can't find too much that makes me confident that polytrack is her surface. So today I'm going to avoid her. I suspect that Castilo Del Diablo will use this run as a stepping stone after abscence, and Viewpoint may well be competitive, but is by no means well handicapped. The two horses towards the rear of the betting are very interesting though. Lyn Valley has the pedigree to excel on the All-Weather. He's been a decent handicapper, won a good handicap this year and may a horse that can improve now switched to synthetics. He is high enough in the mark but could easily outrun his price tag. The same counts for Dominandros, who is a bit an unknown quantity on his Handicap debut. However he is still lightly raced and shaped with promise in a couple of starts. He won on the All-Weather in France and when seen there the last time a couple of weeks ago, he ran well in a hot race. Up in tip shouldn't be a problem given that he won over 10f on soft ground in the past. That say he could be anything today, but given his nice AW profile, he is quite a big price. 

Dominandros @ 12/1 William Hill - 5pts win

Lyn Valley @ 14/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

-------------------------

Nice winner yesterday with Street Artist, who won really well and much easier than expected. The perception that he has more to offer and a big chance quickly turned out under a penalty was right. He travelled much the best in hands of Joe Fanning and drew clear in the closing stages. The handicapper will probably catch up with him now, though

Betting: Tuesday 25th November 2014

15.10 Southwell: Handicap (Class 5)

Street Artist: Overcame widest draw and poor start to make all & win with plenty in hand lto. Pedigree to do really well on fibresand. Big chance under penalty.

Classic Colori: Has been hurdling lately. Potentially on very fair mark and good chance to go well on fibresand, but trip the big question mark. Though bit of stamina on dam side.

Yul Finegold: Fine second lto and 2lb rise in the weights leveled out through 7lb claimer on board today. Hasn’t won over 12f yet (0/5) and fibresand debut.

Luv U Whatever: Four times course winner, drop in class. May found 12f tick too far and not particularly well handicapped.

Layline: Has been placed in three of four Southwell starts. Gets the trip but mark high enough.

Royal Marskell: Good runner-up earlier this month, can race off same mark.

Mixed Message: Won seller lto. Didn’t land a blow in handicaps this year. Hard to know what to expect off current mark.

Reach The Beach: CD winner earlier this month, beating Royal Marskell that day. Cam well clear and chance to follow up. 

Verdict: I can't see why Luv U Whatever is a short as 5/2 and heading the market. His Southwell record is impressive but the trip seems too far judged on previous forms and given his current mark doesn't appear to be particularly generous, I find it easy to oppose him. Reach The Beach as recent course and distance winner should be right in the mix. She won well earlier this month and off a revised mark she can still go well today. Royal Marksell was fair and square beaten in the same race as a second that day and despite the swing in the weights, he may be simply in the grip of the handicapper. Street Artist tops the weights and is turned out quickly under a penalty a recent success at Wolverhampton. He must rate a big chance and looks overpriced. Leaving the turf forms aside, he has very strong All-Weather form to offer and his most recent success was visually very impressive. He had the widest draw to overcome, started poorly, yet jumped soon to the front of the field and set a very fair pace. Yet he was well able to quicken in the closing stages to draw clear and win in excellent style. He looks like an improving horse on the All-Weather and the switch to Southwell shouldn't stop that at all. He appeared to be perfectly fine on the fibresand on his first start when 2nd in a maiden last year, and on pedigree he has very strong credentials to well on this surface. 

Street Artist @ 7/2 Coral - 5pts win

Betting: Thursday 6th November 2014

19.40 Wolverhampton (Class 2 Handicap) - If Solar Deity is fully fit after his 202 days long break, he has a big chance, but I feel with the mark and big weight to shoulder, he is vulnerable if not at his brilliant best tomorrow. Favourite Maverick Wave makes plenty of appeal though. He is lovely bred, with a nice US pedigree and has strong form to his name, most recently on British Champions Day in a big Handicap where he finished a strong runner-up. He won on the All-Weather earlier this year and in fact the surface should be no problem at all. His mark looks more than fair as he could be easily the class act in this field, given that he has a weight advantage, all seems set up nicely for a win. Only slight concern is the trip. Not impossible that he gets the 9,5f, but something we have to find out tomorrow on the track. I still regard his price as too big given all the other facts mentioned. 

Small saver Earth Drummer. He tries the trip for the first time as well, but on pedigree there is no reason why he shouldn't get - and in fact - shouldn't improve for it. By Irish Derby winner Dylan Thomas out of a Giant's Causeway mare who's sire is dual Derby winner Generous. ED tried the AW quite recently for the first time, finished 3rd in a hot 7f race while having to overcome a wide draw and certainly didn't get the run of the race either. He stayed on nicely in the end. He should go close too and is overpriced imo. 

Maverick Wave @ 5/2 Bet365 - 10pts win

Earth Drummer @ 11/2 Bet365 - 5pts win

15.20 Meydan: Alraased @ 28/1 VC - 1pt win + Filfil @ 9/1 VC - 1pt win

Meydan opens its doors for the first time for their new season - a special one, as they laid out a new Dirt surface, which is replacing the Tapeta surface, which was in place the last couple of years. We will see how that goes. Personally I'm not the biggest fan of this surface, but I'm open minded to give it a fair chance. Anyway, I'm going to have a small punt on Alraased in the second race at Meydan today. Not sure what to get from him today but he looks pretty well handicapped on old form, being allowed to race off 75, while he won off 84 at Kempton a while ago. 2013 was a wasted year and he hasn't been seen for well over year until returning at Jebel Ali last month. Well beaten that day, but up in trip to 7f looks the right trip today and a four pound lower mark should give him a chance if he can regain some of his old best. Dirt is an interesting surface for him, with his US pedigree, it could work well. Otherwise nothing too obvious in this race in my mind anyway, even though Filfil makes also some appeal to me for a bigger price, given the fact that off 87 in February this year at Meydan, and is down to 80 now. He has a fine Dirt pedigree and may go well as a fresh horse today, the trip isn't an issue.

The Eye-Catcher: Wednesday 22nd October

18.55 Kempton: Wentworth Falls @ 10/3 VC - 4pts win

Big scopy gelding, though still a maiden after three starts, however showed loads of promise in all his starts. Really caught my eye in his latest run when he tried to make all from the front at Wolverhampton.. He was put under pressure from 3f out but was really game kicked on approaching home turn. He soon was clear and looked like the winner. However over 1f out he suddenly started to hang badly to his left and almost crashed into the rails. This cost an awful lot of momentum and he got eventually caught. He looks well capable to win a maiden though, and the step up to 1m should suit perfectly, being by Dansili as well the fact that he is a full brother to smart miler Strawberrydaiquiri. The wide draw is a bit of a natural worry today, but he should be able to overcome it with his gate speed and should have not too many excuses in the end.

The Eye-Catcher - Wednesday 15th October

15.00 Lingfield: Gold Waltz @ 13/2 VC - 2pts win

Very competitive nursery. The first three in the market make all appeal and a couple from the bigger prices aren't out either. I feel the filly Acclamation filly Gold Waltz could outrun her price tag though. 

She won well over course and distance in August, and followed up with a strong performance in a decent Kempton Nursery when she didn't have things going her way. The eventual winner looked way better than his mark, and had the run of the race from the front, while Gold Waltz settled in the last third of the field and had a wall of horses in front approaching the home straight. She had to delay her challenge and made her way through the field, finally in the clear, she had to quicken instantly. She did all this very well and finished a strong 2nd under hands and heels eventually. This form looks very decent, with the winner one I fancy to win again, and the 3rd a subsequent winner already. Gold Waltz has a pedigree to do well as a juvenile and she could well be better than her current mark.

The Eye-Catcher: Friday 10th October 2014

20.50 Wolverhampton: Bosstime @ 16/1 PP - 2pts win

Big performance last time under top weight over trip that stretches his stamina here at Wolverhampton. He had a wide draw, and wasn't helped by a sluggish start. He made up the lost ground quickly though and was soon up with a good pace. Then he took over the lead from over 3f out and increased the pace, wile turning for home still going strongly. Eventually he didn't quite see out trip and hit the well known brick wall around the final furlong marker but still finished a creditable 4th. The winner of this went on to win his next subsequent start and another rival who finished a good deal beaten, though, went on to finished 3rd subsequently. So this for looks rock solid. Bosstime has some pretty useful maiden from Ireland on Dundalk's All-Weather from earlier this year, and now in the UK he is on a handy mark. He drops in trip now which seems ideal, together with cheekpieces fitted for the first time, he has an awful lot going for himself. Big run is on the cards. Only concern is the wide draw. But you can't have it all, and he certainly is overpriced. 

21.20 Wolverhampton: Palace Princess @ 5/1 PP - 2pts win

Still a maiden but clearly improved in last two starts. Eye-catching performance in the latest over course and distance. Settled in rear from a wide draw, while making gradually progress and travelling notably the best approaching the home straight. However she was stuck in traffic behind a wall of horses. She got out late and had to fight hard to get that space, but once out there, finished extremely well and giving the impression she is clearly on a good mark right now and well up to win a race. Concern is that she may well need a bit in-running luck with her hold-up racing style in this big field around tight Wolverhampton.

A fancy for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Had the most horrible day punting wise one can imagine yesterday. Just horrible. Well, that's the way the game works sometimes. You put in hours and hours of work, and you get absolutely nothing back... not even a run for the money. Anyway, something to look forward today of course, because it is the big one looming - the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. 

I'm not in the mood to write a mega big preview, also lacking the time. But for days now I have one horse in mind for this race, which I actually didn't fancy at all soon after he won his prep race recently. Which is strange. Obvious things aren't as obvious sometimes, if you not look properly. But initial thoughts aren't always the best. Because they are reactions, and thought through. It takes time to think things through, and sometimes perceptions can change. So happend in the case of this particular horse. I'm talking about Ruler Of The World.

He's not the sexy horse in the line-up. Far from it. That are Taghrooda and Ectot. The thee year old generation. For a good reason. They are top class horses and have a proven themselves this season. But they are shot enough in the betting, because every man and his dog are keen on their chance. And that is funny, isn't it? Ruler Of The World won his prep run in the Prix Foy really nicely from the front. Yet he appears to be the forgotten horse. Mind you, he is a former Derby winner. Some say, a poor one. And I thought so too for a while. Anyway, as said before, immediately after the Foy, I wasn't impressed at all. It was just a pure feeling, nothing properly thought through. I have a different perception now. 

Mainly, because I feel he is the horse that will most likely get the run of the race - exactly the way he wants it. From an inch perfect draw (6), he'll be able to track the pace which will ensure he is in the right position when it matters. He won't need to hope for luck, he won't need to use valuable energy travelling wide. Pilot Dettori can kick on whenever he feel it is right. And then whe know ROTW will stay and run strongly to the line. Once hitting the front, he may be very hard to peg back. Well, that is the ideal scenario and we know racing doesn't work always like that. But, taking all that into consideration, he is certainly a very big price at 16/1. One addition point to make. He is a fresh horse. It will only his third start this season. That is a difference to most of his rivals, which had a long, though season, where they have fought many tough battles. A fresh Ruler Of The World, with the potential of getting the perfect run - that makes him a huge chance in my mind.

Ruler Of The World @ 16/1 Bet365 -2pts win